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Date: 17-09-2004, 13:41
|Prior to the first leg of UC1 I thought Bulgaria were safe at 21st place. Now after the results from yesterday it looks very much questionable. With the prospect of losing 2 or all teams left Bulgaria is well within reach from both Denmark and Croatia.|
Date: 17-09-2004, 13:44
|At the moment the situation is as follows:|
Swi 18.875 1/4
Bul 17.790 3/4
Dan 17.200 1/3
Cro 16.791 1/3
Date: 17-09-2004, 14:17
|And I think it just might be Croatia. Why?|
Because - Switzerland is far from 21st place.
- Bulgaria do have greatest chances to stay on that place. Technicaly, only Litex is surely out, CSKA and Levski are not. Denmark's Aalborg doesn't have much chance in France against Auxerre and Croatia's only club Dinamo Zagreb did well yesterday vs Elfsborg and I can only hope they win second leg and win at least 4 points in UEFA League.
Date: 18-09-2004, 01:41
|In reports AaB played best against Auxerre, but yes, they are strong at home.|
Now it seems it will be Bulgaria, teh spread to Croatia is to big.
IF DK mus retain the 21st sport its reguire Bulgaria gets al 3 teams eliminated and AaB reach group play.
I.e Bul gets 3 xtra pts, AaB must win in France plus a win and tie in group play. This is a slim hope. :-(
However it does look better next year for Denmark, if we are back to normal. :-)
- My personally comments, is that the 25 best league or more should have 4 EC spots.
Date: 18-09-2004, 14:19
|If all Litex, CSKA Sofia and Levski go out in UCR1, then Croatia will be surely 21st. Denmark has no chance to achieve that. Lets hope for the reds to be in the groups.|
Date: 18-09-2004, 16:13
|I must disagree with maymunata, chances for Croatia are no more than 5% to make it.|
If all the Bulgarian teams lose their next three games which is almost impossible to happen, Dinamo will have to beat Elfsborg in Sweden, and make at least one draw in the group stages in order Croatia to overtake Bulgaria. And they are not even sure to be going through.
Another more reasonable scenario is if all three Bulgarian teams do NOT qualify but make, let's say, three draws (which is a very pesimistic guess of mine, cause CSKA will beat Steaua, and Levski will beat Beveren)- that is 3 points in these games, then Zagreb will have to make 6 points in his matches, that is something I don't believe they're capable of.
Date: 01-10-2004, 14:23
|Now it's a matter of whether Dynamo Zagreb can get 5 points in the group.|
Date: 01-10-2004, 17:00
|I do not think they can get 5 points in 4 matches.|
But they could progress with 3 or 4 points, and maybe get 1 or 2 in next round.
Date: 01-10-2004, 17:19
As mentioned on lots of threads all over the place lately, the coefficient based prediction for 21st (and every other) place can be found here.
In summary, it currently looks like
20 Serbia 19.999
21 Croatia 18.791
22 Bulgaria 18.540
23 Denmark 17.200
Date: 01-10-2004, 17:58
|Ehehe, it is now very nice situation for Croatia, everything depends on Dinamo |
So could it be that ve will actually be only two years without one representative in Europe???
Dinamo, with little luck in a draw, could get a group where we could come to 7 points and probalby grab some in 3. round (supposing 7 points will be enough for advancing). This is just my speculation. Fortunately Dinamo's ambitions don't stop with group stage. We haven't spent winter in CL/UC for 34 years and this time, everyone is eager to achieve it. OF course, with LOT of luck in a draw (and that means getting Amica Wronki at home and Beveren/Aigaleo Athens away).
Date: 02-10-2004, 22:49
|for 21st place, take a look of Ferencvaros.|
They are playing very well after win against Millwall
and they can help Hungary to reach 21st place as Bulgaria now have no teams.
For me it's a battle with Croatia (Dinamo Zagreb).
Date: 03-10-2004, 00:04
|duncshine, the coefficients on this site are not right!There's no way Croatia is in front of Bulgaria when just before the games of the 1st round, Bulagria is 1.000 in front of Croatia and after that we are o.241 behind Croatia (with having Litex winning and CSKA drawing and Levski drawing-0.583),Croatia having only Dinamo winning one game and drawing the othe which makes 0.458 and Bulgaria should be about 1.125 in front of Croatia!|
Oh yeah and there's no way Croatia can overpass us cause it'll be a miracle if the manage to get more than 3 points in the group stage
Date: 03-10-2004, 04:08
|duncs parameters (and my head) predicts that Dinamo Zagreb as 3rd seeded will get 3-4 points, advance to round 3 and maybe get 1-2 points there. Anyway, they don't need more than 3.3 = 4 points to overcome Bulgaria, which may be in reach.|
Date: 03-10-2004, 07:29
|According to the current ranking Dynamo Zagreb needs to win exactly 5 points in the groups in order for Croatia to overtake Bulgaria (Bulgaria +1.415 right now). Hungary is out of reach for 21-st place except if Ferencvarosh wins the UEFA Cup (Bulgaria +3.209). This means Ferencvarosh needs at least 10 points from now on. I guess in they win their group with 4 wins and then pass to the last 16 it may be possible.|
Back in the real world only Dynamo Zagreb may do ot if they get a lucky draw.
Date: 04-10-2004, 01:52
|As I said, it'll be a mirscle if Dinamo gets more than 3 points from the groups|
Date: 04-10-2004, 02:38
|Yes but this year UEFA Cup showed as many surprises. Who would expect Dinamo Tsiblisi from QR1 to end up in UEFA group stage? Aigaleo athens to overcome Genglerbirligi which played so well last year? Panionios throwing out Udineze? Rangers almost getting out from a medium size portuguese team.|
Date: 04-10-2004, 07:47
|Football is so exiting because of surprices. Last year Dynamo Zagreb played not so good. This season they met only modest opposition up to now. So it is very difficult to evaluate their performance in the group stage. Maybe croatian fans can tell more about Dynamo form. I think they will take not more than 3 points in 4 matches that will leave Bulgaria on 21st place.|
Dynamo Tbilisi progress from Q1 was a surprise but don't forget this team won European Cup of Cups in 1981. They have traditions. And now georgian football is on the rise: their national team is now a leader in WC 2006 Q group.
Date: 04-10-2004, 08:33
Right, Croatia and Bulgaria. Here goes. Do please point out where my maths are wrong!
Current score 2.375 for 2004/5
All three teams out so that's where they stay. Total for five years 18.540
Current score 2 points for 2004/5
Dinamo Zagreb are in Pot 3, and are seeded to get 4 points in the Group Stage. (Maybe two home wins, two away defeats...). This would see them through to Round 3, where I have them gaining one more point but bowing out.
So, 5 more points for Zagreb and Croatia. Divide by the three teams originally in from Croatia and you have an extra 1.666 point average, taking Croatia's total for 2004/5 to 3.666, and their overall total to 18.791. Just ahead of Bulgaria.
Hope that makes sense
(By the way, I'm working in Sweden all this week so may not get time to update the figures til next weekend. Sorry.
Date: 05-10-2004, 18:30
|Well, Dynamo Zagreb has away games with Benfica and Stuttgart and home games with Beveren and Heerenven. I guess they won't win anything away, so they have to win both home games to have a chance for 21st place.|
Date: 05-10-2004, 18:33
|Yes, they need five points. Probably one point more than they are capable to win. One bridge too far.|
Date: 05-10-2004, 21:57
|Well, if they win both home games, they might very well become third in the pool and maybe catch a point in the next 2 games...|
Date: 05-10-2004, 22:18
|OK, someone asked info about Dinamo Zagreb. Well...to be more precise, even BBB (Dinamo's fans) can't evaluate real Dinamo strenght. We bought everything good in out league this summer but team still doesn't show it's true prowess. |
We are currently on 6th position with 9 points behind surprise leader Inter. However, Dinamo's form is rising, we had problems with defence, now attacking is problem, but that won't be for too long because we have good attackers.
This draw is marvelous opportunity for us to finally see spring in Europe after 34 years. If we beat Beveren and Heerenveen at home we could search for a point in Gotlieb-Daimler stadium if Stuttgart gets a job done before last matchday. So...everything is possible. Even in Croatia everyone knows we can't win on Luz, point would be big as a house.
What can we expect from Dinamo? Furious attack at the beggining at home pitch and early goals. Dinamo is fond of scoring/getting early goals. It is always like that in UEFA cup for last 2 years.
Wait and se... :/
Date: 06-10-2004, 07:13
|With playing both lower seeded teams at home, Dinamo have the best draw from football point of view and the worst from financial. If they win both home matches Croatia have every chance of overtaking Bulgaria.|