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Author: panda
Date: 14-05-2006, 14:47
| In penalty shootout, is higher ranked team more lkely to win?
Did anyone ever do any research (in UC and CL, but also domesticaly) to investigate this?
yesterday Eng and Scot cup finals were won by higher ranked team on pens.
I have some ideas that might support this 'weather proverb' like higher ranked team may be more used to pressure, have some players more skilled at penalties.
Of course there are plenty of counter-examples (lke liverpool-milan) supported by the 'idea'- team A dominates but does not score winning goal, then feels demoralised, so team B wins shootout.
Also, many shootouts (e.g. promotion play-off) are between equal teams, so nothing can be learned from this.
However, do others feel as I do - higher ranked team has advantage in shoot-out? Do results back this up? |
Author: ignjat63
Date: 14-05-2006, 15:30
| It is an intersting question that triggered me to do some similar statistics. Namely, in late 80s in ex-Yu league the system was that in the case of a draw thare is a penalty shoot-out. The shootout winner got a point and loser none. Anyway in 1988/89 season 37 shootouts were won by lower ranked teams and 30 by higher ranked teams. This was in pactise for 3 seasons. It is also interesting to see home-away winner distribution. |
Author: jdhaywood
Date: 14-05-2006, 15:46
| In the 35 penalty shootouts from 1999 to present in the CL and the UEFA cup, the higher-ranked team has won 16; the lower-ranked, 19. At neutral sites, the higher-ranked team has won 1; the lower-ranked, 3.
However, in the 31 penalty shootouts from 1999 to 2006 in the CL and the UEFA cup not played at a neutral site, the home team has won 22; the away team 9. Of those 22 home wins, the higher-ranked team won 11; the lower-ranked 11. Of those 9 away wins, the higher-ranked team won 4; the lower-ranked 5.
Conclusions: Ranking doesn't seem to mean very much, if anything. However, location seems to mean a lot, as is often the case. |
Author: panda
Date: 15-05-2006, 10:54
| Thanks a lot for these stats guys.
Interesting - ranking DOESN'T seem to matter. So my 'weather proverb' is wrong.
Home advantage matters - this is therefore an additional advantage to getting to play the 2nd leg at home. I have heard it is not an advantage to have one's own fans behind the goal - so the end you shoot at may or may not matter.
Most of the other 'proverbs' relate to the record of individual teams, and of course often relates to national sides, since elimination in WC by shootout is always hard to bear.
So -Liverpool aparently have won 9 out of 10, England, Italy and Spain have reason to fear penalty shootout, Brazil, Germany, do well. And so on. |
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