Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

Champions League, Europa League, Conference League
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Aidann
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Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

Post by Aidann »

Code: Select all

                Expected Got Delta
Din Zagreb          0,42  2  +1,58
Molde               0,42  2  +1,58
Lok Moscow          0,56  2  +1,44
Zenit               0,59  2  +1,41
Juventus            0,64  2  +1,36
Basel               0,68  2  +1,32
PSV                 0,80  2  +1,20
Rapid Vienna        0,85  2  +1,15
Braga               1,06  2  +0,94
FC Midtjylland      1,10  2  +0,90
Sion                1,19  2  +0,81

Code: Select all

Partizan Belgrade   1,25  2  +0,75
Wolfsburg           1,32  2  +0,68
Marseille           1,33  2  +0,67
Schalke 04          1,35  2  +0,65
Atletico Madrid     1,39  2  +0,61
Athletic Bilbao     1,42  2  +0,58
Sevilla             1,44  2  +0,56
Napoli              1,51  2  +0,49
Plzen               1,54  2  +0,46
Roma                0,56  1  +0,44
Bayern Munich       1,58  2  +0,42
Besiktas            1,58  2  +0,42

Code: Select all

Rosenborg           0,61  1  +0,39
Tottenham           1,66  2  +0,34
Celtic              0,68  1  +0,32
Belenenses          0,68  1  +0,32
Dortmund            1,73  2  +0,27
Bayer Leverkusen    1,74  2  +0,26
Benfica             1,77  2  +0,23
Real Madrid         1,80  2  +0,20
Asteras Tripolis    0,81  1  +0,19
Chelsea             1,83  2  +0,17
Gent                0,85  1  +0,15
Gabala              0,85  1  +0,15

Code: Select all

PSG                 1,86  2  +0,14
Anderlecht          0,90  1  +0,10
Bordeaux            0,94  1  +0,06
Dynamo Kiev         0,97  1  +0,03
Lazio               0,98  1  +0,02
Dnipro              1,02  1  -0,02
Porto               1,03  1  -0,03
Liverpool           1,06  1  -0,06
Monaco              1,10  1  -0,10
Malmo FF            0,14  0  -0,14
Lyon                1,15  1  -0,15
PAOK Saloniki       1,15  1  -0,15

Code: Select all

Maccabi Tel Aviv    0,17  0  -0,17
Sparta Prague       1,19  1  -0,19
Shakhtar Donetsk    0,20  0  -0,20
FC Astana           0,23  0  -0,23
BATE Borisov        0,26  0  -0,26
FK Krasnodar        0,27  0  -0,27
Ajax                1,32  1  -0,32
Lech Poznan         1,32  1  -0,32
FK Karabakh         0,34  0  -0,34
St Etienne          1,39  1  -0,39
Olympiakos          0,42  0  -0,42
Skenderbeu          0,42  0  -0,42

Code: Select all

Barcelona           1,44  1  -0,44
Dinamo Minsk        0,46  0  -0,46
Club Brugge         0,49  0  -0,49
Monchengladbach     0,56  0  -0,56
Augsburg            0,58  0  -0,58
Galatasaray         0,61  0  -0,61
APOEL Nicosia       0,65  0  -0,65
Groningen           0,67  0  -0,67
CSKA Moscow         0,68  0  -0,68
AZ Alkmaar          0,75  0  -0,75
Rubin Kazan         0,81  0  -0,81
Legia Warsaw        0,90  0  -0,90

Code: Select all

Slovan Liberec      0,94  0  -0,94
Villarreal          1,15  0  -1,15
Man Utd             1,20  0  -1,20
Fiorentina          1,32  0  -1,32
Man City            1,36  0  -1,36
Valencia            1,41  0  -1,41
Sporting Lisbon     1,44  0  -1,44
Arsenal             1,58  0  -1,58
Fenerbahce          1,58  0  -1,58
Last edited by Aidann on Sat Sep 19, 2015 19:39, edited 2 times in total.
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Aidann
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Post by Aidann »

Code: Select all

          Expected Got Delta
Switzerland   1,87  4  +2,13
Norway        1,03  3  +1,97
Croatia       0,42  2  +1,58
Austria       0,85  2  +1,15
Germany       8,86 10  +1,14
Russia        2,91  4  +1,09
Italy         5,01  6  +0,99
Denmark       1,10  2  +0,9
Serbia        1,25  2  +0,75

Code: Select all

Scotland      0,68  1  +0,32
France        7,77  8  +0,23
Portugal      5,98  6  +0,02
Sweden        0,14  0  -0,14
Israel        0,17  0  -0,17
Azerbaijan    1,19  1  -0,19
Ukraine       2,19  2  -0,19
Kazakhstan    0,23  0  -0,23
Belgium       2,24  2  -0,24
Greece        2,38  2  -0,38

Code: Select all

Albania       0,42  0  -0,42
Netherlands   3,54  3  -0,54
Cyprus        0,65  0  -0,65
Czech Rep     3,67  3  -0,67
Belarus       0,72  0  -0,72
Spain        10,05  9  -1,05
Poland        2,22  1  -1,22
Turkey        3,77  2  -1,77
England       8,69  5  -3,69
Last edited by Aidann on Sat Sep 19, 2015 19:43, edited 3 times in total.
greenbay
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Post by greenbay »

Interesting. Less than 1/3 of countries overperformed. More than 2/3 were underperformers.

Side note: can you please make it "got" less "expected" equals "delta"? As this "delta" is the sorting basis.
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SHEV
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Post by SHEV »

Really nice, but wouldn't it be better with 2 points for a win basis?
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Aidann
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Post by Aidann »

greenbay wrote:Side note: can you please make it "got" less "expected" equals "delta"? As this "delta" is the sorting basis.
:thumbs:
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Post by Thunder_PT »

SHEV wrote:Really nice, but wouldn't it be better with 2 points for a win basis?
I agree, the way it is you have, for example, Dynamo Kyiv and Porto both underperforming...
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Post by greenbay »

On second thought, the three point rule is the reason for 2/3 underperformers. Teams splitting points will usually be underperformers that way.

Could really be better to make it 2 poibts for a win, as this might be more conclusive. Or probably, doing it ELO style. Win = 1. Draw = 1/2. Compared to expected winning percentage.
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Aidann
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Post by Aidann »

Agree with all of you, guys.
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greenbay
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Post by greenbay »

Browsing through the table, it seems to make much more sense now. Just recall i.e. Dortmund being ranked quite high earlier despite doing an expected home win. Now they are somewhere in the middle. While i.e. Dinamo, biggest upset of MD1, claim #1 now.
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og2002gr
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Post by og2002gr »

Great work Aidann! :applause:
fewer spots :arrow: weaker leagues :arrow: fewer spots :arrow: weaker leagues :arrow: fewer spots :arrow: weaker leagues

http://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum2/viewtop ... 52#p359852
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Aidann
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Post by Aidann »

These are the stats of the qualifying rounds:

Code: Select all

                  Expected Got Delta
Legia                 8,37 12  +3,63
Liberec               4,68  8  +3,32
Zilina                8,91 12  +3,09
K. Almaty             8,02 11  +2,98
Odd                   6,38  9  +2,62
Birkirkara            2,51  5  +2,49
AZ Alkmaar            3,72  6  +2,28
Din. Minsk            5,75  8  +2,25
Qarabag               5,89  8  +2,11
Zeljeznicar           5,89  8  +2,11
Newtown               1,91  4  +2,09
Gabala                6,92  9  +2,08
Midtjylland           6,94  9  +2,06
Skonto                2,95  5  +2,05
Belenenses            3,96  6  +2,04
Alashkert             2,06  4  +1,94
Jelgava               2,11  4  +1,89
Astra                 6,14  8  +1,86
Altach                3,21  5  +1,79
Milsami               3,24  5  +1,76
Partizan              7,24  9  +1,76
Spartaks              2,26  4  +1,74
FC Astana             6,31  8  +1,69
Vaduz                 8,31 10  +1,69
AC Wolfsberger        2,48  4  +1,52
Hibernians            0,55  2  +1,45
Pyunik Yerevan        4,55  6  +1,45
Rosenborg            11,61 13  +1,39
Shakhtar              4,61  6  +1,39
Monaco                4,62  6  +1,38
Koper                 3,64  5  +1,36
Malmo FF              5,74  7  +1,26
Hafnarfjordur         3,76  5  +1,24
Kalju                 1,78  3  +1,22
Manchester United     2,92  4  +1,08
Lincoln Red Imps      1,93  3  +1,07
Shkendija             0,93  2  +1,07
Trakai                3,94  5  +1,06
Dinamo Batumi         1,00  2  +1,00
BATE                  7,02  8  +0,98
Sutjeska              1,02  2  +0,98
Mladost Podgorica     3,05  4  +0,95
Olimpic Sarajevo      1,06  2  +0,94
Basel                 5,07  6  +0,93
Lech Poznan           7,12  8  +0,88
Vardar                1,12  2  +0,88
Dortmund              7,15  8  +0,85
Atromitos             3,18  4  +0,82
Crusaders             3,19  4  +0,81
HJK                   5,19  6  +0,81
TNS                   4,19  5  +0,81
St. Liege             5,23  6  +0,77
ASA Targu Mures       1,24  2  +0,76
Plzen                 5,24  6  +0,76
Rubin Kazan           5,24  6  +0,76
Lok. Zagreb           4,25  5  +0,75
Slask Wroclaw         4,27  5  +0,73
Rabotnicki            7,34  8  +0,66
NSI Runavik           1,35  2  +0,65
Vikingur              0,35  1  +0,65
Elfsborg              7,37  8  +0,63
Slovan Bratislava     8,37  9  +0,63
Bala                  1,38  2  +0,62
Cukaricki             4,43  5  +0,57
Laci                  1,44  2  +0,56
UC Dublin             1,48  2  +0,52
CSKA Moscow           4,49  5  +0,51
Flora                 1,49  2  +0,51
Inter Baku            5,50  6  +0,50
Fola                  0,51  1  +0,49
Lazio                 1,54  2  +0,46
Bordeaux              5,56  6  +0,44
Fenerbahce            4,58  5  +0,42
Trencin               1,58  2  +0,42
Celtic                8,60  9  +0,40
FC Copenhagen         5,61  6  +0,39
Rapid Vienna          3,62  4  +0,38
Sillamäe Kalev        0,63  1  +0,37
Dinamo Tbilisi        1,77  2  +0,23
Trnava                6,78  7  +0,22
Skenderbeu            5,79  6  +0,21
VPS                   0,79  1  +0,21
Beroe                 4,83  5  +0,17
Vojvodina             7,85  8  +0,15
Airbus                0,90  1  +0,10
Thun                  5,90  6  +0,10
Zorya                 3,91  4  +0,08
KR Reykjavik          2,92  3  +0,07
Krasnodar             5,92  6  +0,07
Omonia                6,94  7  +0,05
Vorskla Poltava       1,97  2  +0,03
Dacia Chisinau        3,98  4  +0,01
Sporting              2,05  2  -0,05
D. Zagreb             9,06  9  -0,06
Maribor               2,07  2  -0,07
Lahti                 1,08  1  -0,08
Niedercorn            1,11  1  -0,11
Rudar                 1,11  1  -0,11
Tskhinvali            1,11  1  -0,11
PAOK                  8,12  8  -0,12
Mlada Boleslav        2,15  2  -0,15
Levadia               2,18  2  -0,18
Molde                 6,18  6  -0,18
Brondby              10,19 10  -0,19
Juvenes/Dogana        0,20  0  -0,20
Charleroi             4,21  4  -0,21
Valencia              2,21  2  -0,21
Zalgiris              1,22  1  -0,22
Lusitanos             0,24  0  -0,24
College Europa        0,27  0  -0,27
Sant Julia            0,29  0  -0,29
Maccabi Tel Aviv      6,30  6  -0,30
La Fiorita            0,31  0  -0,31
Cherno More           1,33  1  -0,33
Inverness             1,33  1  -0,33
Jagiellonia           5,33  5  -0,33
Sparta Prague         4,33  4  -0,33
Aberdeen              6,38  6  -0,38
G.A. Eagles           1,41  1  -0,41
Kukesi                5,42  5  -0,42
Ajax                  4,45  4  -0,45
Dundalk               1,45  1  -0,45
Southampton           5,45  5  -0,45
Bayer Leverkusen      2,46  2  -0,46
Folgore               0,46  0  -0,46
Zrinjski              2,46  2  -0,46
Neftci Baku           2,52  2  -0,52
Kruoja                0,53  0  -0,53
Randers FC            5,53  5  -0,53
Panathinaikos         4,55  4  -0,55
Vikingur Reykjavik    1,56  1  -0,56
Apollon               8,57  8  -0,57
Goteborg              4,57  4  -0,57
Shirak Gyumri         2,57  2  -0,57
Ceadir Lunga          0,59  0  -0,59
Jablonec              3,59  3  -0,59
Sturm Graz            1,60  1  -0,60
Stjarnan              0,62  0  -0,62
Balzan Youths         0,63  0  -0,63
MTK Budapest          1,63  1  -0,63
Glentoran             0,64  0  -0,64
H. Beer Sheva         1,68  1  -0,68
Atlantas              0,69  0  -0,69
Glenavon              0,70  0  -0,70
Ordabasy              1,71  1  -0,71
Domzale               1,73  1  -0,73
Stromsgodset          6,73  6  -0,73
Zhodino               1,75  1  -0,75
St Johnstone          2,78  2  -0,78
Sampdoria             2,85  2  -0,85
Beitar Jerusalem      3,87  3  -0,87
Dila Gori             0,89  0  -0,89
Hajduk Split          9,89  9  -0,89
Cork City             1,93  1  -0,93
Dudelange             3,00  2  -1,00
Ulisses Yerevan       2,00  1  -1,00
FC Botosani           4,08  3  -1,08
AEK Larnaca           1,11  0  -1,11
Sheriff Tiraspol      2,14  1  -1,14
AIK                   8,15  7  -1,15
St Etienne            6,15  5  -1,15
Partizani             1,17  0  -1,17
B36 Torshavn          1,20  0  -1,20
Zurich                2,20  1  -1,20
Steaua Bucuresti      6,21  5  -1,21
Litex Lovech          3,22  2  -1,22
FK Sarajevo           1,25  0  -1,25
Salzburg              5,25  4  -1,25
Shakhtyor Soligorsk   5,25  4  -1,25
Vitesse               1,26  0  -1,26
Club Brugge           3,29  2  -1,29
Differdange           3,29  2  -1,29
HB Torshavn           1,29  0  -1,29
Videoton              5,32  4  -1,32
Trabzonspor           6,33  5  -1,33
Ath Bilbao            6,34  5  -1,34
Ventspils             1,37  0  -1,37
Renova                1,42  0  -1,42
Celje                 1,43  0  -1,43
Shamrock Rovers       4,52  3  -1,52
Shmona                1,55  0  -1,55
FC Santa Coloma       2,57  1  -1,57
Buducnost             2,63  1  -1,63
Rijeka                2,69  1  -1,69
APOEL                 6,75  5  -1,75
Linfield              3,83  2  -1,83
Debrecen              6,95  5  -1,95
SJK                   2,04  0  -2,04
Ferencvaros           5,13  3  -2,13
Aktobe                3,15  1  -2,15
St. Patricks          2,42  0  -2,42
Basaksehir            2,44  0  -2,44
FK Crvena zvezda      2,47  0  -2,47
Valletta              2,48  0  -2,48
Guimaraes             2,56  0  -2,56
West Ham              9,62  7  -2,62
Ludogorets            3,16  0  -3,16
Young Boys            3,46  0  -3,46
Per country:

Code: Select all

                 Expected Got Delta
Poland              25,09 30  +4,91
Slovakia            25,64 30  +4,36
Latvia               8,69 13  +4,31
Azerbaijan          20,83 25  +4,17
Wales                8,38 12  +3,62
Norway              30,90 34  +3,10
Czech Republic      19,99 23  +3,01
Estonia              6,08  8  +1,92
Austria             16,16 18  +1,84
Armenia             11,18 13  +1,82
Kazakhstan          19,19 21  +1,81
Denmark             28,27 30  +1,73
Liechtenstein        8,31 10  +1,69
Ukraine             10,49 12  +1,51
Russia              15,65 17  +1,35
Bosnia-Herzegovina  10,66 12  +1,34
Belarus             19,77 21  +1,23
Macedonia           10,81 12  +1,19
Malta                6,17  7  +0,83
Gibraltar            2,20  3  +0,80
France              16,33 17  +0,67
Germany              9,61 10  +0,39
Romania             17,67 18  +0,33
Georgia              4,77  5  +0,23
Montenegro           7,81  8  +0,19
Sweden              25,83 26  +0,17
Netherlands         10,84 11  +0,16
Greece              15,85 16  +0,15
Iceland              8,86  9  +0,14
Moldova              9,95 10  +0,05
Serbia              21,99 22  +0,01
Lithuania            6,38  6  -0,38
Italy                4,39  4  -0,39
Portugal             8,57  8  -0,57
Belgium             12,73 12  -0,73
Albania             13,82 13  -0,82
Slovenia             8,87  8  -0,87
San Marino           0,97  0  -0,97
Scotland            19,09 18  -1,09
Finland              9,10  8  -1,10
Faroe Islands        4,19  3  -1,19
Spain                8,55  7  -1,55
Croatia             25,89 24  -1,89
Luxembourg           7,91  6  -1,91
England             17,99 16  -1,99
Andorra              3,10  1  -2,10
Northern Ireland     8,36  6  -2,36
Turkey              13,35 10  -3,35
Cyprus              23,37 20  -3,37
Israel              13,40 10  -3,40
Switzerland         16,63 13  -3,63
Bulgaria            12,54  8  -4,54
Ireland             11,80  7  -4,80
Hungary             19,03 13  -6,03
bermuda3eck
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Post by bermuda3eck »

Great work.
The qualification overperformer shows what i seid that Polish teams get hard opponents and played well.
Hungary: crushes again and again.
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Lyonnais
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Post by Lyonnais »

As per this website, http://clubelo.com/UCL

the best peformances for MD1 were the following

+13.3 Zenit
+11.9 Dinamo Zagreb
+11.7 Basel
+11,2 Rapid Wien
+10.9 Juventus
etc.
Don't forget to post your predictions for the new season
viewtopic.php?p=563580#p563580
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Aidann
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Post by Aidann »

Lyonnais wrote:As per this website, http://clubelo.com/UCL

the best peformances for MD1 were the following

+13.3 Zenit
+11.9 Dinamo Zagreb
+11.7 Basel
+11,2 Rapid Wien
+10.9 Juventus
etc.
All of those 5 are among top six of what I posted so it seems fair. I really like that elo website, although their predictions are based on pure maths. Betting sites can use their experts to give a more precise value to each team odds. So I still believe Dinamo’s win was more unexpected than Zenit’s.
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Post by bugylibicska »

Aidann wrote:
Lyonnais wrote:As per this website, http://clubelo.com/UCL

the best peformances for MD1 were the following

+13.3 Zenit
+11.9 Dinamo Zagreb
+11.7 Basel
+11,2 Rapid Wien
+10.9 Juventus
etc.
All of those 5 are among top six of what I posted so it seems fair. I really like that elo website, although their predictions are based on pure maths. Betting sites can use their experts to give a more precise value to each team odds. So I still believe Dinamo’s win was more unexpected than Zenit’s.
Zenit are unpredictable, able to beat stronger teams than Valencia. I rate Lokomotiv`s win in Lisbon vs. Sporting as a bigger upset, because they`re much less strong than Zenit. Arsenal on their day can beat (almost) any team, but quite a few times show total impotence and capable to lose vs. much weaker teams. Still, the biggest shock for me Dinamo beating Arsenal, then Lokomotiv`s win.
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