Overperformers and underperformers in Europe
This a fabulous job Aindann. I hope you keep up with it for the next matchdays.
Play fair and square!
considering the amount of money Zenit are able to spend to sign players, i dont think it's a big surprise to see them beating Valencia. even if it's an away match. 55m € for Hulk, 40 for Witsel, 16.8 for Garcia, 15 for Criscito. how many teams have such generous sugar daddies?
Last goal of the European midweek, scored by Slovan's Liberec defender Vladimir Coufal in Marseille, produced the biggest upset of MD2 (odds for a Slovan's win were as high as 10/1). Olympiakos' win at the Emirates wasn't bad either with odds at 8/1.
Code: Select all
Expected Got Delta
Slovan Liberec 0,37 2 +1,63
Olympiakos 0,42 2 +1,58
Benfica 0,54 2 +1,46
Partizan Belgrade 0,58 2 +1,42
BATE Borisov 0,62 2 +1,38
FC Midtjylland 0,71 2 +1,29
AZ Alkmaar 0,72 2 +1,28
FK Karabakh 0,87 2 +1,13
Porto 0,97 2 +1,03
Valencia 0,97 2 +1,03
Dnipro 0,98 2 +1,02Code: Select all
Rapid Vienna 1,17 2 +0,83
Dynamo Kiev 1,24 2 +0,76
Fiorentina 1,26 2 +0,74
CSKA Moscow 1,28 2 +0,72
Napoli 1,28 2 +0,72
Man Utd 1,30 2 +0,70
Juventus 1,31 2 +0,69
PSG 1,32 2 +0,68
Lazio 1,36 2 +0,64
Man City 1,38 2 +0,62
Villarreal 1,43 2 +0,57
PAOK Saloniki 0,46 1 +0,54Code: Select all
Braga 1,47 2 +0,53
Sion 0,49 1 +0,51
Basel 1,50 2 +0,50
Sparta Prague 1,51 2 +0,49
Zenit 1,57 2 +0,43
FK Krasnodar 1,70 2 +0,30
Barcelona 1,71 2 +0,29
Schalke 04 1,72 2 +0,28
Real Madrid 1,76 2 +0,24
Tottenham 0,76 1 +0,24
Lok Moscow 1,85 2 +0,15
Bayern Munich 1,86 2 +0,14Code: Select all
FC Astana 0,87 1 +0,13
Molde 0,94 1 +0,06
Sporting Lisbon 0,95 1 +0,05
Bordeaux 0,98 1 +0,02
Celtic 0,99 1 +0,01
Fenerbahce 1,01 1 -0,01
Rubin Kazan 1,02 1 -0,02
Besiktas 1,05 1 -0,05
Ajax 1,06 1 -0,06
Galatasaray 1,13 1 -0,13
Din Zagreb 0,14 0 -0,14
Skenderbeu 0,15 0 -0,15Code: Select all
Malmo FF 0,24 0 -0,24
Monaco 1,24 1 -0,24
Asteras Tripolis 0,28 0 -0,28
Bayer Leverkusen 0,29 0 -0,29
Gabala 0,30 0 -0,30
Gent 0,43 0 -0,43
APOEL Nicosia 0,49 0 -0,49
Lech Poznan 0,50 0 -0,50
Liverpool 1,51 1 -0,51
Groningen 0,53 0 -0,53
Dortmund 1,54 1 -0,54
Plzen 0,57 0 -0,57Code: Select all
Monchengladbach 0,62 0 -0,62
St Etienne 0,64 0 -0,64
Shakhtar Donetsk 0,68 0 -0,68
Sevilla 0,69 0 -0,69
Wolfsburg 0,70 0 -0,70
Legia Warsaw 0,72 0 -0,72
PSV 0,72 0 -0,72
Belenenses 0,74 0 -0,74
Maccabi Tel Aviv 0,76 0 -0,76
Dinamo Minsk 0,83 0 -0,83
Rosenborg 1,02 0 -1,02
Lyon 1,03 0 -1,03Code: Select all
Chelsea 1,03 0 -1,03
Anderlecht 1,13 0 -1,13
Athletic Bilbao 1,28 0 -1,28
Club Brugge 1,29 0 -1,29
Roma 1,38 0 -1,38
Augsburg 1,42 0 -1,42
Atletico Madrid 1,46 0 -1,46
Arsenal 1,58 0 -1,58
Marseille 1,63 0 -1,63Benfica and Porto's impressive wins helped Portugal to become the highest overperformers of the day. 2 wins, 1 draw and 4 loses give Germany the award of underperformers of MD2.
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Expected Got Delta
Portugal 4,67 7 +2,33
Greece 1,16 3 +1,84
Russia 7,42 9 +1,58
Czech Rep 2,45 4 +1,55
Serbia 0,58 2 +1,42
Italy 6,59 8 +1,41
Denmark 0,71 2 +1,29
Ukraine 2,90 4 +1,1
Switzerland 1,99 3 +1,01Code: Select all
Austria 1,17 2 +0,83
Azerbaijan 1,17 2 +0,83
Belarus 1,45 2 +0,55
Kazakhstan 0,87 1 +0,13
Scotland 0,99 1 +0,01
Netherlands 3,03 3 -0,03
Croatia 0,14 0 -0,14
Albania 0,15 0 -0,15
Turkey 3,19 3 -0,19
Sweden 0,24 0 -0,24Code: Select all
Cyprus 0,49 0 -0,49
Israel 0,76 0 -0,76
Norway 1,96 1 -0,96
Poland 1,22 0 -1,22
Spain 9,30 8 -1,3
England 7,56 6 -1,56
France 6,84 4 -2,84
Belgium 2,85 0 -2,85
Germany 8,15 5 -3,15
I am not sure how to read these lists. "Got" must be the points the countries got, 2 for a win and 1 for a draw. But where is the "expected" and "delta" number coming from? And is "delta" a fancy way of writing "difference"?
Those points expected are derived from bookie odds.
Example:
Bayern v Arsenal
home win = 2.00 = 50%
draw = 3.00 = 33.3%
away win = 6.00 = 16.7%
So expectation for Bayern:
50% * 2 points + 33.3% * 1 point = 1.333 points
for Arsenal:
16.7% * 2 points + 33.3% * 1 point = 0.667 points
If Bayern win, the delta is
2 points - 1.333 points = 0.667 points
If Bayern draw, the delta is
1 point - 1.333 points = minus 0.333 points
And yes, delta is the fancy way of saying difference. Scientists and statisticians rather use delta than difference.
Example:
Bayern v Arsenal
home win = 2.00 = 50%
draw = 3.00 = 33.3%
away win = 6.00 = 16.7%
So expectation for Bayern:
50% * 2 points + 33.3% * 1 point = 1.333 points
for Arsenal:
16.7% * 2 points + 33.3% * 1 point = 0.667 points
If Bayern win, the delta is
2 points - 1.333 points = 0.667 points
If Bayern draw, the delta is
1 point - 1.333 points = minus 0.333 points
And yes, delta is the fancy way of saying difference. Scientists and statisticians rather use delta than difference.
"Put it in your signature to save you the trouble of writing it over and over again."
Aidann Marvelous work. I truly enjoy this. Is there a way to keep an aggregate ranking as well? I mean, I would love to see the overall regarding MD1 + MD2. And then next week the MD3 in isolation and then MD1+MD2+MD3 as well, etc.. So in the end we would have an overall ranking of both teams and countries performances according to initial expectations.
Play fair and square!
-
bugylibicska
- Senior Member
- Posts: 30722
- Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 17:21
- Location: Canada
I absolutely agree the biggest upsets were Olympiakos` and Liberec`s wins. I rate the Greeks` one a bit higher, because they`ve won in England against a so called ``world class`` team who knew they must win to stay in contention and after 12 defeats on English soil without a win or draw. And they beat Arsenal being the better, smarter team. Liberec`s triumph had a bit of luck in it, Marseille outshot them 23:3.
Danish champions Midtjylland lead the overall ranking by a small margin over Partizan Belgrade. No surprise at the bottom, with Arsenal's two surprising defeats condemning them to last place.Aliceag wrote:Aidann Marvelous work. I truly enjoy this. Is there a way to keep an aggregate ranking as well? I mean, I would love to see the overall regarding MD1 + MD2. And then next week the MD3 in isolation and then MD1+MD2+MD3 as well, etc.. So in the end we would have an overall ranking of both teams and countries performances according to initial expectations.
Code: Select all
Expected Got Delta
FC Midtjylland 1,81 4 +2,19
Partizan Belgrade 1,83 4 +2,17
Juventus 1,95 4 +2,05
Rapid Vienna 2,02 4 +1,98
Zenit 2,16 4 +1,84
Basel 2,18 4 +1,82
Benfica 2,31 4 +1,69
Molde 1,36 3 +1,64
Lok Moscow 2,41 4 +1,59
Braga 2,53 4 +1,47
Din Zagreb 0,56 2 +1,44
Sion 1,68 3 +1,32
Napoli 2,79 4 +1,21
Olympiakos 0,84 2 +1,16
BATE Borisov 0,88 2 +1,12
Dnipro 2,00 3 +1,00
Porto 2,00 3 +1,00
Schalke 04 3,07 4 +0,93
PSG 3,18 4 +0,82
Dynamo Kiev 2,21 3 +0,79
FK Karabakh 1,21 2 +0,79
Slovan Liberec 1,31 2 +0,69
Lazio 2,34 3 +0,66
Tottenham 2,42 3 +0,58
Bayern Munich 3,44 4 +0,56
AZ Alkmaar 1,47 2 +0,53
PSV 1,52 2 +0,48
Real Madrid 3,56 4 +0,44
PAOK Saloniki 1,61 2 +0,39
Besiktas 2,63 3 +0,37
Celtic 1,67 2 +0,33
Sparta Prague 2,70 3 +0,30
Bordeaux 1,92 2 +0,08
CSKA Moscow 1,96 2 +0,04
FK Krasnodar 1,97 2 +0,03
Wolfsburg 2,02 2 -0,02
Bayer Leverkusen 2,03 2 -0,02
Asteras Tripolis 1,09 1 -0,09
FC Astana 1,10 1 -0,10
Plzen 2,11 2 -0,11
Sevilla 2,13 2 -0,13
Barcelona 3,15 3 -0,15
Gabala 1,15 1 -0,15
Dortmund 3,27 3 -0,27
Gent 1,28 1 -0,28
Monaco 2,34 2 -0,34
Ajax 2,38 2 -0,38
Malmo FF 0,38 0 -0,38
Valencia 2,38 2 -0,38
Belenenses 1,42 1 -0,42
Man Utd 2,50 2 -0,50
Liverpool 2,57 2 -0,57
Skenderbeu 0,57 0 -0,57
Fiorentina 2,58 2 -0,58
Villarreal 2,58 2 -0,58
Rosenborg 1,63 1 -0,63
Athletic Bilbao 2,70 2 -0,70
Galatasaray 1,74 1 -0,74
Man City 2,74 2 -0,74
Lech Poznan 1,82 1 -0,82
Rubin Kazan 1,83 1 -0,83
Atletico Madrid 2,85 2 -0,85
Chelsea 2,86 2 -0,86
Shakhtar Donetsk 0,88 0 -0,88
Maccabi Tel Aviv 0,93 0 -0,93
Roma 1,94 1 -0,94
Marseille 2,96 2 -0,96
Anderlecht 2,03 1 -1,03
St Etienne 2,03 1 -1,03
APOEL Nicosia 1,14 0 -1,14
Lyon 2,18 1 -1,18
Monchengladbach 1,18 0 -1,18
Groningen 1,20 0 -1,20
Dinamo Minsk 1,29 0 -1,29
Sporting Lisbon 2,39 1 -1,39
Fenerbahce 2,59 1 -1,59
Legia Warsaw 1,62 0 -1,62
Club Brugge 1,78 0 -1,78
Augsburg 2,00 0 -2,00
Arsenal 3,16 0 -3,16Code: Select all
Expected Got Delta
Switzerland 3,86 7 +3,14
Russia 10,33 13 +2,67
Italy 11,60 14 +2,40
Portugal 10,65 13 +2,35
Denmark 1,81 4 +2,19
Serbia 1,83 4 +2,17
Austria 2,02 4 +1,98
Greece 3,54 5 +1,46
Croatia 0,56 2 +1,44Code: Select all
Norway 2,99 4 +1,01
Ukraine 5,09 6 +0,91
Czech Rep 6,12 7 +0,88
Azerbaijan 2,36 3 +0,64
Scotland 1,67 2 +0,33
Kazakhstan 1,10 1 -0,10
Belarus 2,17 2 -0,17
Sweden 0,38 0 -0,38
Netherlands 6,57 6 -0,57
Albania 0,57 0 -0,57Code: Select all
Israel 0,93 0 -0,93
Cyprus 1,14 0 -1,14
Turkey 6,96 5 -1,96
Germany 17,01 15 -2,01
Spain 19,35 17 -2,35
Poland 3,44 1 -2,44
France 14,61 12 -2,61
Belgium 5,09 2 -3,09
England 16,25 11 -5,25Thank you so much Aidann, wonderful work! Keep up!
Play fair and square!
Top 7 Coefficient Overview
Matchday 1
1. Spain: 1,285
2. Germany: 1,428
3. England: 0,625
4. Italy: 1,000
5. Portugal: 1,000
6. France: 1,333
7. Russia: 0,800
Matchday 2
1. Spain: 1,142
2. Germany: 0,714
3. England: 0,750
4. Italy: 1,333
5. Portugal: 1,166
6. France: 0,666
7. Russia: 1,800
Best country of the matchday in blue. All countries with less than 1,000 coefficient points in red.
Matchday 1
1. Spain: 1,285
2. Germany: 1,428
3. England: 0,625
4. Italy: 1,000
5. Portugal: 1,000
6. France: 1,333
7. Russia: 0,800
Matchday 2
1. Spain: 1,142
2. Germany: 0,714
3. England: 0,750
4. Italy: 1,333
5. Portugal: 1,166
6. France: 0,666
7. Russia: 1,800
Best country of the matchday in blue. All countries with less than 1,000 coefficient points in red.
Aidann, awesome idea, great execution 
This week's upsets were more unexpected than the ones in matchday two. Lech Poznan victory away at Fiorentina was offered 14/1, where Belenenses victory away at Basel was at 12/1
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Expected Got Delta
Lech Poznan 0,30 2 +1,70
Belenenses 0,33 2 +1,67
Sion 0,60 2 +1,40
Malmo FF 0,68 2 +1,32
Arsenal 0,73 2 +1,27
St Etienne 0,79 2 +1,21
Galatasaray 0,81 2 +1,19
Anderlecht 0,89 2 +1,11
Molde 0,93 2 +1,07
Olympiakos 1,00 2 +1,00
Braga 1,03 2 +0,97Code: Select all
Augsburg 1,04 2 +0,96
Athletic Bilbao 1,13 2 +0,87
Fenerbahce 1,18 2 +0,82
Rapid Vienna 1,18 2 +0,82
APOEL Nicosia 1,24 2 +0,76
Napoli 1,25 2 +0,75
Zenit 1,29 2 +0,71
Man City 1,42 2 +0,58
Wolfsburg 1,43 2 +0,57
Monchengladbach 0,45 1 +0,55
Rubin Kazan 0,45 1 +0,55
Lazio 1,56 2 +0,44Code: Select all
Sparta Prague 0,56 1 +0,44
Valencia 1,57 2 +0,43
Monaco 1,57 2 +0,43
Groningen 0,66 1 +0,34
Barcelona 1,68 2 +0,32
Roma 0,74 1 +0,26
Villarreal 1,76 2 +0,24
Dortmund 1,76 2 +0,24
Besiktas 0,79 1 +0,21
Club Brugge 0,79 1 +0,21
Porto 1,80 2 +0,20
Atletico Madrid 1,84 2 +0,16Code: Select all
Sporting Lisbon 1,87 2 +0,13
CSKA Moscow 0,94 1 +0,06
Real Madrid 0,94 1 +0,06
Dynamo Kiev 0,95 1 +0,05
FK Krasnodar 0,97 1 +0,03
PAOK Saloniki 1,03 1 -0,03
Chelsea 1,05 1 -0,05
PSG 1,06 1 -0,06
Man Utd 1,06 1 -0,06
Skenderbeu 0,13 0 -0,13
FC Astana 0,16 0 -0,16
Maccabi Tel Aviv 0,20 0 -0,20Code: Select all
Lok Moscow 1,21 1 -0,21
Legia Warsaw 1,21 1 -0,21
FK Qabala 0,24 0 -0,24
Dinamo Minsk 0,24 0 -0,24
Bayer Leverkusen 1,26 1 -0,26
BATE Borisov 0,32 0 -0,32
Slovan Liberec 1,34 1 -0,34
Gent 0,43 0 -0,43
FK Karabakh 0,43 0 -0,43
Schalke 04 1,44 1 -0,44
Rosenborg 0,44 0 -0,44
Juventus 1,55 1 -0,55Code: Select all
Liverpool 1,55 1 -0,55
PSV 0,57 0 -0,57
Sevilla 0,58 0 -0,58
Lyon 0,71 0 -0,71
FC Midtjylland 0,75 0 -0,75
Asteras Tripolis 0,76 0 -0,76
Ajax 0,83 0 -0,83
Plzen 0,83 0 -0,83
Partizan Belgrad 0,87 0 -0,87
AZ Alkmaar 0,96 0 -0,96
Marseille 0,97 0 -0,97
Din Zagreb 1,00 0 -1,00Code: Select all
Celtic 1,07 0 -1,07
Tottenham 1,11 0 -1,11
Benfica 1,19 0 -1,19
Dnipro 1,21 0 -1,21
Bayern Munich 1,27 0 -1,27
Shakhtar Donetsk 1,32 0 -1,32
Bordeaux 1,40 0 -1,40
Basel 1,67 0 -1,67
Fiorentina 1,70 0 -1,70Dream midweek for Turkish teams after Galatasaray and Fenerbahce managed to overcome two difficult opponents and Besiktas secured a valuable point in Moscow. Again France is losing ground in their battle against Portugal and Russia for the 3rd UCL spot.
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Expected Got Delta
Turkey 2,78 5 +2,22
Portugal 6,22 8 +1,78
Spain 9,50 11 +1,50
Poland 1,51 3 +1,49
Sweden 0,68 2 +1,32
Russia 4,86 6 +1,14
Belgium 2,11 3 +0,89
Austria 1,18 2 +0,82
Cyprus 1,24 2 +0,76Code: Select all
Norway 1,37 2 +0,63
Germany 8,65 9 +0,35
Greece 2,79 3 +0,21
England 6,92 7 +0,08
Albania 0,13 0 -0,13
Kazakhstan 0,16 0 -0,16
Israel 0,20 0 -0,20
Switzerland 2,27 2 -0,27
Belarus 0,56 0 -0,56
Azerbaijan 0,67 0 -0,67Code: Select all
Czech Rep 2,73 2 -0,73
Denmark 0,75 0 -0,75
Italy 6,80 6 -0,80
Serbia 0,87 0 -0,87
Croatia 1,00 0 -1,00
Scotland 1,07 0 -1,07
France 6,50 5 -1,50
Netherlands 3,02 1 -2,02
Ukraine 3,48 1 -2,48Amazing job Aidann!
It's incredible how these rankings confirm "our" expectations day after day after day. I think this is a very nice mathematical model of expectations. Well, when one thinks about it, bookies make their odds based on a very large number of bets by human users... so in the end, this mathematical model is a kind of large "crowdsourcing" analysis of big data, like a giant poll. Very, very, very nice and elegant, and simple. I wonder if this kind of model could have other applications and derivatives...
It's incredible how these rankings confirm "our" expectations day after day after day. I think this is a very nice mathematical model of expectations. Well, when one thinks about it, bookies make their odds based on a very large number of bets by human users... so in the end, this mathematical model is a kind of large "crowdsourcing" analysis of big data, like a giant poll. Very, very, very nice and elegant, and simple. I wonder if this kind of model could have other applications and derivatives...
Play fair and square!