Battle Portugal - Russia - France for 5th & 6th places

including formats, draws, seedings, etc.
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Aidann
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Battle Portugal - Russia - France for 5th & 6th places

Post by Aidann »

Following Lyonnais calculation in thread Europe League MD 4, I tried to go one step further and predict average scenario for Portugal, Russia and France coeff battle, including knock-out stages.

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Porto:       currently 11.0 points, will get 5 points and 5 quali points. Total 21
Benfica:     currently 10.0 points, will get 5 points and 5 quali points. Total 20
Braga:       currently  6.0 points, will get 4 points.                    Total 10
Belenenses:  currently  6.0 points, will get 2 points.                    Total  8
Sporting:    currently  4.0 points, will get 3 points.                    Total  7
Guimaraes:   currently  0.0 points.                                       Total  0
PORTUGAL: 66/6 = 11.000

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Zenit:       currently 17.0 points, will get 4 points.                    Total 21
CSKA Moscow: currently  9.5 points, will get 4 points and 5 quali points. Total 18.5
Krasnodar:   currently  8.0 points, will get 5 points.                    Total 13
Lok Moscow:  currently  6.0 points, will get 5 points.                    Total 11
Rubin Kazan: currently  5.0 points, will get 2 points.                    Total  7
RUSSIA: 70.5/5 = 14.1

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PSG:         currently  9.0 points, will get 8 points and 6 quali points. Total 23
Monaco:      currently  8.0 points, will get 6 points.                    Total 14
S.Etienne:   currently  7.5 points, will get 4 points.                    Total 11.5
Bordeaux:    currently  6.0 points, will get 2 points.                    Total  8
Marseille:   currently  4.0 points, will get 4 points.                    Total  8
Lyon:        currently  5.0 points, will get 2 points.                    Total  7
FRANCE: 71.5/6 = 11.916

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Final rankings
Russia:   started at 39.582, currently 48.682, will finish at 53.682
France:   started at 41.666, currently 48.249, will finish at 53.582
Portugal: started at 42.582, currently 48.748, will finish at 53.582
:shock: :shock: :shock: :shock:

That would be close!!

Edit: France will be in front, due to a better 2015/16 season. I looked at Moldova/Azerbaijan case in 2014 rankings
Last edited by Aidann on Sat Nov 07, 2015 09:27, edited 1 time in total.
Thunder_PT
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Post by Thunder_PT »

Great post by Lyonnais in the other thread. I'd be interested in knowing how Aidann calculated his numbers.

Lyonnais' post sort of reflects what I'm expecting the situation to be by Christmas: Portugal ahead and with teams in a better position in spring. As Lyonnais said, having teams in spring is nice and all but if then they go out right away without making any points, then it was for nothing. Being a group winner matters, it greatly improves a team's chance of continuing to make points. Portugal are currently looking at 3 potential group winners, Russia at 2 and France none. PSG may be stronger than Porto or Benfica, but are they likely to make more points than them in the current situation? Only with a lucky draw.

So Portugal with the (slight) point advantage plus more group winners should keep 5th... except Russia have one more team and only one less group winner and are dividing their points by only 5 which gives them an advantage.

Either way it's gonna be very tight until the end. Portugal would be far more comfortable if the strongest Sporting of the last few years weren't taking the piss in the Europa League. Words cannot describe how angry I am at them and their attitude in Europe.
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Aidann
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Post by Aidann »

Till Christmas, I relied on Lyonnais scenario (although CSKA qualifing as second is not that probable)
52,748 Portugal
52,282 Russia
51,582 France

Afterwards, following Lyonnais criteria, I compared Porto's clubelo coeff with the seven teams they may face as group winners:

1918 Atletico
1888 PSG
1881 Juve
1829 Valencia
1814 Porto
1793 CSKA
1773 Roma
1722 Olympiakos
Porto would face, on average, a 1829.1 team, so they would score two points but wouldn't advance.

And did the same with the other qualified teams. PSG and Monaco would advance on their first knock-out stage, despite not being seeded. For instance:

2044 Barcelona
1991 Bayern
1889 Man City
1888 PSG
1818 Man United
1814 Porto
1790 Benfica
1787 Zenit

So points scored in KO rounds would be:

Porto: 2
Benfica: 2
Braga: 1
Zenit: 2
CSKA: 1
Krasnodar: 2
Lok Moscow: 2
PSG: 2 + 1 + 2
Monaco: 2 + 0 + 2
S.Etienne: 2
Marseille: 1

Bottom line: it seems this battle may be decided by a single point obtained in a useless draw by a team in a return leg of a knock-out stage. But main factor could be lucky draws.
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Lyonnais
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Post by Lyonnais »

Thanks Aidann for having simulated the KO rounds and I really hope that you're right when you say that CSKA finishing second is not that a probable scenario :wink:
we'll see. Anyway it's sometimes important to simulation worst case scenarios.

This POR / RUS / FRA battle might be very close until the end and the luck factor (draws, referee decisions, penalty missed (argh Lacazette!!!...) could make the difference at the end.
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AlanK
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Post by AlanK »

Great job, guys :!: Ain't this fun :!: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Which team will PSG draw in octavos :?: Barça or Bayern :?: Or will they get Benfica or Porto :?: In comparison, one of the Manchesters or Zenit would be a let down.

It's early November and I'm already salivating over the possibilities for the draw on 14 December. :D
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Post by bugylibicska »

I see Zenit out in the 1st knock out round and PSG progressing according to the prognosis. No question in my mind PSG are the stronger team, but luck might play a big role in the draw, beside the fact that PSG will be unseeded and Zenit hopefully seeded. You guessed it right, PSG could easily draw Barcelona or Bayern and Zenit paired with Olympiakos for example - no offence meant. :D
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Post by bjkman1903 »

bugylibicska wrote:I see Zenit out in the 1st knock out round and PSG progressing according to the prognosis. No question in my mind PSG are the stronger team, but luck might play a big role in the draw, beside the fact that PSG will be unseeded and Zenit hopefully seeded. You guessed it right, PSG could easily draw Barcelona or Bayern and Zenit paired with Olympiakos for example - no offence meant. :D
PSG can also draw Zenit and eliminate them :twisted:
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Post by bugylibicska »

bjkman1903 wrote:
bugylibicska wrote:I see Zenit out in the 1st knock out round and PSG progressing according to the prognosis. No question in my mind PSG are the stronger team, but luck might play a big role in the draw, beside the fact that PSG will be unseeded and Zenit hopefully seeded. You guessed it right, PSG could easily draw Barcelona or Bayern and Zenit paired with Olympiakos for example - no offence meant. :D
PSG can also draw Zenit and eliminate them :twisted:
Correct! Or Zenit PSG! :twisted:
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Post by Thunder_PT »

@Aidann:
The flaw is that you didn't do a weighted average. If the assumption is that Atlético and Valencia finish 2nd, then PSG's chances of drawing Barcelona are 1/5, not 1/7 (still not completely correct, this is still a simplification, but closer to the reality). Basically PSG's 2nd round opponents from more likely to least likely in this scenario:
Barcelona
Man City - Zenit
Bayern - FC Porto - Benfica

Now, as you said, CSKA finishing 2nd isn't all that likely. If Wolfsburg finish 2nd instead, then switch Bayern and Zenit in the above list and things don't look as good for PSG.

However, I'll concede that the same can be said about FC Porto. Since Atlético and Valencia can't draw Barça or Real, Porto are more likely to draw them (and Benfica more likely to draw Valencia).
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Post by Overgame »

If Lyon beats Gent and Zenit keeps the H2H against Valencia, I wonder if Zenit will try to eliminate a french team.
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nunoalexfcporto
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Post by nunoalexfcporto »

Thunder_PT wrote:Great post by Lyonnais in the other thread. I'd be interested in knowing how Aidann calculated his numbers.

Lyonnais' post sort of reflects what I'm expecting the situation to be by Christmas: Portugal ahead and with teams in a better position in spring. As Lyonnais said, having teams in spring is nice and all but if then they go out right away without making any points, then it was for nothing. Being a group winner matters, it greatly improves a team's chance of continuing to make points. Portugal are currently looking at 3 potential group winners, Russia at 2 and France none. PSG may be stronger than Porto or Benfica, but are they likely to make more points than them in the current situation? Only with a lucky draw.

So Portugal with the (slight) point advantage plus more group winners should keep 5th... except Russia have one more team and only one less group winner and are dividing their points by only 5 which gives them an advantage.

Either way it's gonna be very tight until the end. Portugal would be far more comfortable if the strongest Sporting of the last few years weren't taking the piss in the Europa League. Words cannot describe how angry I am at them and their attitude in Europe.

hi ,

I have your idea about Sporting Lisbon,but i think the next game in moscow,the coach will do some attention some some subtitions to have a great team to win.

he did a bad team last game europe,because i think never coach should form a team with all players have not play offical games this season.it´s important ideas and philosofhy of football to win games.
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Post by Lyonnais »

Overgame wrote:If Lyon beats Gent and Zenit keeps the H2H against Valencia, I wonder if Zenit will try to eliminate a french team.
Russian team with a Portuguese coach ... :wink:

Seriously, no unfounded accusation. When you don't have your destiny in hand (in reality Lyon still have it), it's because you failed somewhere, not because of someone's else fault.
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Post by Malko »

"+more group winners should keep 5th"

i doubt about this advantage........5 points more than Russia and France means only 2 wins and a draw.......

Benfica and Porto, even if the finish first of their group, won't be favorites in the round of 16. There are many spanish, some german and PSG as seconds......so the probability they have Barcelona, Real, Paris or Bayern ....is very big. And then, it will normally be over........

French or russian teams going into EL Ko-stage first have until the final 2 more games to play 8could already make 4 points.......)....they only would need1 more point to keep. Knowing know they would be probaly favorite in the round of 32 (and maybe 16), or even play each other.........

France with Lyon, saint Etienne, Monaco and Marseille in the KO round of EL probably will make (depise of the advantage of 5 points) make a better score than Benfica and Porto in CL......

Lyonaais, we have also a french team with portuguese coach :-)
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Post by Malko »

"Basically PSG's 2nd round opponents from more likely to least likely in this scenario:
Barcelona
Man City - Zenit
Bayern - FC Porto - Benfica"

well again barcelona ? One day, PSG will pass....could be this year.
Man City and Zenit are underdogs vs PSG , also Benfica and Porto.Only the 6th team could cause some trouble, but let's wait and see......we have a France. germany on friday :-)
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Post by bugylibicska »

Malko wrote:"+more group winners should keep 5th"

i doubt about this advantage........5 points more than Russia and France means only 2 wins and a draw.......

Benfica and Porto, even if the finish first of their group, won't be favorites in the round of 16. There are many spanish, some german and PSG as seconds......so the probability they have Barcelona, Real, Paris or Bayern ....is very big. And then, it will normally be over........

French or russian teams going into EL Ko-stage first have until the final 2 more games to play 8could already make 4 points.......)....they only would need1 more point to keep. Knowing know they would be probaly favorite in the round of 32 (and maybe 16), or even play each other.........

France with Lyon, saint Etienne, Monaco and Marseille in the KO round of EL probably will make (depise of the advantage of 5 points) make a better score than Benfica and Porto in CL......

Lyonaais, we have also a french team with portuguese coach :-)
Benfica and Porto, even if the finish first of their group, won't be favorites in the round of 16. There are many spanish, some german and PSG as seconds......so the probability they have Barcelona, Real, Paris or Bayern ....is very big. And then, it will normally be over........

Astonishing ignorance! If this wouldn`t be so sad I say quite entertaining. :roll: :shock:
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