Europa League 2016/2017: Groups G H I

[Dragonite]

Group G:


Group H:


Group I:



Comments about the teams, predictions…

[BurningStorm]

I'm not sure if the "new" Schalke are already in a good form. On first Bundesliga matchday the answer was "no" (lost 0:1 in Frankfurt), but against Bayern they played really well, at least in the first 60 minutes. Probably they need some weeks for their best possible performance. A draw in Nice would be quite okay. Nice also with many changes, but already in a very good shape in their league. With Favre as coach, they can reach a CL place in the near future.

[Dragonite]

Group G

Ajax will play the group stages for the ninth consecutive time. When you think that they’ve reached a new low, humiliated in Russia by Rostov with a 1-4 defeat, we can always remember that in 2007/2008 it was even worse, they were eliminated in the CL qualifiers by Slavia Prague, and then in the UEFA Cup qualifiers by Dinamo Zagreb, not even reaching the group stages.
Ever since then they’ve been reaching the group stages, in the UEFA Cup, CL or EL.
And they haven’t been doing much more than that. Their CL group eliminations in the third place gave them a second chance in the EL, where they never lasted much longer anyway.
Last season they arrived earlier to the EL, and third place had no second chance anymore (they wasted that with Rapid Wien in the qualifiers), so their season ended in December.
And now, will they finally advance from a group again, for the first time since 2009/2010, when they finished second in a group with Anderlecht, Dinamo Zagreb and Timisoara?

Standard Liège advanced from a group more recently than Ajax, in 2011/2012, and reached the EL last 16 as many times as Ajax did in the last five seasons.
But they’ve been having terrible results ever since that good 2011/2012 season.
In 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 they failed to advance from the EL group stages twice, getting a score of 1-2-9!
And last season they couldn’t even reach the EL groups, being eliminated by Molde in the playoffs.
They were lucky to get a direct qualification this time, if they had to play the qualifiers, perhaps they would have been eliminated again.

Celta de Vigo is an EL debutant! Their last European campaign was in 2006/2007, in the UEFA Cup.
They finished second in a group with Newcastle, Fenerbahçe, Palermo and Eintracht Frankfurt, then they eliminated Spartak Moscow, and then they were eliminated in the last 16 by Werder Bremen.
If they are as good as they were ten years ago, they should also advance from this group.
They have good neighbours, but their neigbours can’t help them here, this isn’t a Barça vs. Ajax, Real Madrid vs. Standard Liège or Atlético Madrid vs. Panathinaikos here, it will have to be Celta de Vigo winning these games.

Panathinaikos has something in common with Ajax… the last time that any of them advanced from a group stage was in 2009/2010.
Ajax is in pot 1 while Panathinaikos is in pot 4 because while Ajax at least has been playing group stages regularly ever since, Panathinaikos hasn’t even been doing it.
They missed the group stages in three of the last five seasons, the last time that they reached them, in 2014/2015; they couldn’t win a single game (0-2-4)… Well, Panathiniakos’ 1-4-7 in the last five seasons (8% wins, 34% draws, and 58% defeats) actually make teams like Ajax and Standard Liège look like super teams.
Does that mean that Panathinaikos is a lot worse than Ajax or Standard Liège now? I don’t think so. For starters, they seem to have the best coach in this group, Andrea Stramaccioni.
He took Inter to the last 16 in 2012/2013, can he do the same for Panathinaikos?

Prediction
1. Celta de Vigo
2. Panathinaikos
3. Ajax
4. Standard Liège

[Firnen]

Group I is one of the most difficult to predict. Schalke is problematic, Krasnodar and Nice are solid teams and Salzburg are usally decent in the EL. I'd give a small advantage to Schalke and Krasnodar but it is a really open group for everyone.

Group H has a favourite (Shakhtar) and two teams that can cause them much trouble but will probably fight for 2nd, Braga and Gent. Portuguese teams are strong in the EL, the Belgians had their magic year last season so I'd give it to Braga. Konyaspor will be 4th but they will cause one or two upsets.

Group G is another open group for everyone. Celta seems to have an edge, but they are not a team to be scared of. Ajax has the name but a really poor squad this year. Panathinaikos returns to EL Group Stage with a better team than the last 3-4 years but I'm not so sure if that is enough to proceed(I hope so though). Standard Liege is the weakest team theoretically but in such a close group everything can happen..

[Dragonite]

Group H

Shakhtar Donetsk will play the EL for the fourth time… but in their previous two, in 2013/2014 and 2015/2016, they started in the CL group stages.
The last, and until now only time that they played the EL group stages, was in 2009/2010, right after winning the UEFA Cup in the previous season.
And now, right after their longest campaign since that UEFA Cup conquest, when they reached the EL semis, they’re back to the EL group stages.
The most significant change in Shakhtar Donetsk must be the new coach. After over a decade being coached by Mircea Lucescu, their coach now is… Paulo Fonseca.
He already started to destroy in just a few weeks the reputation that Mircea Lucescu took over a decade to build. His elimination against Young Boys seems a lot worse after knowing what happened to Young Boys next. What’s next, crashing in the EL groups?
His EL record is actually not so bad, 6-4-4.

Braga could be laughing about this, sending Paulo Fonseca to Shakhtar Donetsk as Lucescu’s replacement… But when we see who Braga’s coach is now, they should actually be crying.
José Peseiro, really?!
The same José Peseiro that got a 1-0-5 for Braga in the CL, losing twice against Cluj!? What were they thinking to get him again?
Braga’s squad doesn’t seem to be bad, but José Peseiro has the capacity to make a team play less than half of what they were supposed to.
So, what was Braga supposed to get here, 10-12 points? With Peseiro, that means 5-6, perhaps even less.
Braga has a terrible record against Shakhtar Donetsk, two defeats in the 2010/2011 CL, and another two in last season’s EL quarter finals. But Shakhtar Donetsk was a chapter in Braga’s best two ever campaigns, they’ll also be a chapter in this one… Does it mean that Braga will have another memorable campaign? With Peseiro that seems impossible.

Gent advanced from the CL groups last season, something that Shakhtar Donetsk couldn’t do, and Braga never did.
That makes them the strongest team in this group? No… not necessarily.
That season was an exceptional season, they are not one of Europe’s top 16 teams, and they’re not above Valencia, Lyon, Shakhtar or Braga.
A better indicator of their strength may be their previous EL campaign… not the one in 2012/2013 when they were eliminated in the qualifiers by Videoton with two defeats, aggregate score 0-4, that was the opposite of that CL campaign, an exceptionally bad season.
The one in 2010/2011 when they played the EL groups, and got seven points in a group with Sporting, Lille and Levski Sofia…
Their EL group this season seems to have a similar difficulty level… even though they’re facing last season’s semifinalist and quarter finalist, they have also evolved a while since 2010/2011… So perhaps they’ll get something like seven points again. Will it be enough to advance?

Konyaspor never played a European match before, and they were automatically qualified to the EL group stages…
The most (only?) impressive thing about them is their coach Aykut Kocaman that took Fenerbahçe to the 2012 /2013 EL semis.
However, doing it with Fenerbahçe’s superstars is a lot easier (although no small feat) than doing it with Konyaspor’s nobodies.
There was a rule that Turkish teams are never eliminated in the EL groups, but that ended last season with Besiktas finishing third in its group, so Konyaspor can’t even use that as motivation anymore (as if their neighbours’ results were going to help them).

Prediction
1. Shakhtar Donetsk
2. Braga
3. Gent
4. Konyaspor

[Dragonite]

I don’t have much time to say much about Group I now, with Qarabag vs. Slovan Liberec beginning in a few minutes, so I’ll just leave the prediction and talk about the teams tomorrow

Prediction
1. Schalke 04
2. Krasnodar
3. Nice
4. FC Salzburg

[og2002gr]

Group G
Like in CL groups, there is the case with the weakest teams of top pots, and strong enough teams of the lowest pots. As a result everyhting is possible in a balanced group.

Ajax: In Greece, you can hardly hear the word "Ajax" without the "historic" before it. Once a giant, they do anything they can to make their history remain a sweet old memory. Still, they have already beat PAOK twice. Their performance against PAOK this season plus the fact they are in an transitional season leaves many hopes to their opponents.

Standard Liege: another team who their only success in the last seasons are against greek teams (Panathinaikos twice). They failed miserably in their last EL GS efforts, with this group being similar to their last one. Also they are here only because of their cup win, failing even to enter top6 in Belgium.

Celta: a Spanish team but unlike Athletic unexperienced since this is their first participation in EL. They look like the group's favorites, but their weak transition game, the possible hard schedule having to play their Primera Division games too, make them look as a vulnerable team.

Panathinaikos: Going through the biggest changes in the last seasons, with more than 10 important players coming and a new manager, we are finally back! Here we meet Ajax, an opponent connected with the biggest moments of our history (Champions Cup Final and Champions League semi-final) both lost though. Also a team that eliminated us twice in the recent years (Standard). And finally a Spanish team, with Panathinaikos' tradition being terrible. Though, everyone is confident, as there is much more quality than last seasons, the season started great with 5 wins and 1 draw and clear scores, the fans are returning, the manager is gaining some respect, the atmosphere smells like "glory days".
Dragonite thinks Strammaconi is the best coach here. In Greece (myself included) he is considered as the worst manager of the last seasons.
The team was very solid and efficient in the qualification rounds. But it is the group stage performance that will decide who is right.
Tonight's game is already sold out, and I think the winner team will be the team who will qualify.
Good signs are bet companies and Dragonite's prediction. Bad signs are we have 3 important players injured.

1. Celta 65%
2. Ajax 50%
3. Panathinaikos 45%
4. Standard Liege 40%


Group H

Portuguese performance in CL games make me sceptic about Braga. But this is Europa League and portuguese teams rock here.
Still a good fight expected against a CL last16 finalist (Gent).

1. Shakhtar 65%
2. Braga 60%
3. Gent 50%
4. Konyaspor 25%


Group I

1. Schalke 65%
2. Krasnodar 55%
3. Nice 45%
4. Salzburg 35%

[Dragonite]

I’ll conclude what I haven’t finished yesterday, the team previews, and hopefully I’ll ignore yesterday’s results that in some cases strengthened my predictions but in others weakened them.

Schalke 04 is in a downward spiral over the last six seasons: CL semifinalist in 2011, then EL quarter finalist in 2012, then eliminated in the CL last 16 in 2013, 2014 and 2015, and finally eliminated in the EL last 32 in 2016.
If this trend continues, this season they’ll be eliminated in the EL last 32 again, or even worse, they won’t even advance from the group stages.
It seems impossible? It already happened in the past, not in the EL, but in the 2008/2009 UEFA Cup, where it was even easier to advance – Schalke 04 finished bottom of a five teams group with Manchester City, Twente, Paris Saint-Germain and Racing Santander.
They have a new coach, Markus Weinzierl, that took Augsburg to the EL last 32 last season, as far as Schalke 04 went, but with a smaller club. The expectation is that with better resources at his disposal in Schalke 04, he’ll be able to go even further and rescue Schalke 04 from this decadence.

FC Salzburg will play the EL group stages for the sixth time in the last eight seasons.
In their previous five campaigns, they advanced from the group stages four times. But just looking at this from a qualification/elimination point of view isn’t fair to describe some of the things that they did here.
They once won a group with a perfect 6-0-0 in 2009. Four years later in 2013 they did it again, 6-0-0… plus another two wins against Ajax in the following round, aggregate score 6-1, and eight wins in a row!
And in the following season they “accidentally” started with a draw, but won the following five matches, ending a group stage with 16 points, 5-1-0.
In one of their “not so perfect” group stage campaigns, where they couldn’t get 18 or 16 points, they still eliminated Paris Saint-Germain in 2011.
They really have several impressive results over the last years that put many so-called “bigger” teams to shame.
Unfortunately, this age of prosperity seems to be over. Last season they couldn’t even reach the EL groups, eliminated by Dinamo Minsk in the playoffs, and this season they reached them but they don’t seem capable to repeat the feats of their past teams.

Krasnodar doesn’t have the impressive recent past of Schalke 04 or FC Salzburg, that’s why they’re in pot 3 while the other two are in higher pots.
But unlike Schalke 04 and FC Salzburg, they’re evolving… At least they evolved from 2014/2015 to 2015/2016, there isn’t much information before or after to prove or refute this claim.
In 2014/2015 they played the EL groups for the first time and only got 6 points, only winning once in their last match when they were already eliminated and their opponent Everton was already qualified.
But in 2015/2016 they were much better and more than doubled their score, winning their group with 13 points, above Borussia Dortmund, PAOK and Qabala.
Doubling their score again will be impossible; at least in the group stages… they’ll have to reach at least the last 16 round.

Nice played the EL playoffs in 2013/2014 and was eliminated by Apollon.
This time they didn’t have to play the qualifiers and were automatically qualified to the group stages.
In theory they’re this group’s weakest team, but they have the best coach. Lucien Favre already qualified Borussia Monchengladbach from the EL group stages twice recently, the last of them as an undefeated group winner. Maybe his expertise will be enough to compensate Nice’s weak spots.

[Dragonite]

Group G
Ajax 10 points (Qualified)
Standard Liège 5
Celta de Vigo 5
Panathinaikos 1

Next MD:
Ajax vs. Panathinaikos
Celta de Vigo vs. Standard Liège

Ajax will secure the first spot if they win, or a draw will also be enough if Standard Liège doesn’t win in Spain
Celta de Vigo and Standard Liège will advance if they win.
A draw will postpone this to the last round, and Panathinaikos can also enter this fight, but they must defeat Ajax as well to stay alive, and even that won’t be enough if there’s a winner in the other match… or if next in MD6 Standard Liège defeats Ajax.


I’m very impressed with what Ajax did here!

Yes, they were the highest ranked team, so “in theory” they were supposed to win the group.
But they were also the highest ranked team last season and they were still eliminated.
And already this season, in the CL qualifiers, they were again the highest ranked team against Rostov, and they were still humiliated.

This was only a few months ago, so their recovery was very fast.

Is this a weak group, so one of two weak teams will “seem” better than what they really are just because they were facing even worse teams?
Only time will answer this. Perhaps Ajax can even meet again Rostov in the EL last 32… although right now it seems unlikely that Rostov will finish third in its CL group and drop to the EL. Anyway, Ajax has a lot of “Rostovs” in its recent past, if it isn’t actually Rostov, it may be one of the others that embarrassed them.


Group H
Shakhtar Donetsk 12 points (Qualified and Group Winner)
Braga 5
Gent 4
Konyaspor 1

Next MD:
Gent vs. Braga
Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Konyaspor

Braga will advance if they win
Gent will be eliminated if they lose
Konyaspor must win and even that won’t be enough if Braga also wins


Shakhtar Donetsk won the group, as expected.


Is it enough to overshadow their elimination in the CL qualifiers against Young Boys? Not even close!
Actually, this season is starting to look like their 2009/2010 season.
In 2009/2010, after a great UEFA Cup campaign (they won it!), they lost in the CL qualifiers against… Timisoara. Now, after a great EL campaign (semifinalists) they also lost in the CL qualifiers. And between these two seasons they never failed again to reach the CL group stages.
Then, in the EL groups, they won their first four matches. They did it again now.
And what happened next? They failed to win any of their next four matches and were eliminated in the last 32 round.
Will it happen again? Maybe… Perhaps not the “failing to win any of the following (four) matches” part, I think that they should at least defeat Konyaspor again… and perhaps Braga too, for the sake of tradition.
But then, in the KO stages, they aren’t safe of another “Young Boys”, perhaps they can even face again Young Boys.

Anyway, compared to what the other Ukrainian teams are doing, Shakhtar is still doing great, if they are sinking, the others are sinking a lot faster.


Group I
Schalke 04 12 points (Qualified and Group Winner)
Krasnodar 6
FC Salzburg 3
Nice 3

Next MD:
Schalke 04 vs. Nice
Krasnodar vs. FC Salzburg

Krasnodar will advance if they win and Nice doesn’t, or a draw will be enough if Nice loses
FC Salzburg will be eliminated if they don’t win
Nice will be eliminated if they lose, and if Krasnodar wins they must also win


Schalke 04 won the group, as expected.


Last season Sparta Prague was a stronger opponent than any of the current Group I opponents, Schalke 04 couldn’t defeat them and actually lost the head-to-head, only staying above Sparta Prague because they dropped some points against “the others”.
Staying above Sparta Prague was worthless, since then Sparta Prague went all the way to the quarter finals, while Schalke 04 was eliminated in the next round by Shakhtar Donetsk.
A rematch against Shakhtar Donetsk at the same stage will be impossible this season, since they’re both group winners and will avoid each other. Perhaps it can happen later, if both stay alive.

Some interesting facts about Schalke 04, so far all their goals were scored by different players!
And they barely even used yet their best forward Huntelaar yet.
So, it seems that they’re much more powerful than what they’ve shown yet.
Their new coach took smaller Augsburg to the same stage last season; let’s see how much further he can go in charge of a stronger team.

[bugylibicska]

@ Dragonite
``Perhaps Ajax can even meet again Rostov in the EL last 32… although right now it seems unlikely that Rostov will finish third in its CL group and drop to the EL.``

Unfortunately it`s not just unlikely, but impossible, Rostov cannot be 3rd anymore. Bayern have 9 poinys and Rostov have 1 only and 2 games left.

[AlanK]

@ Dragonite
``Perhaps Ajax can even meet again Rostov in the EL last 32… although right now it seems unlikely that Rostov will finish third in its CL group and drop to the EL.``

Unfortunately it`s not just unlikely, but impossible, Rostov cannot be 3rd anymore. Bayern have 9 poinys and Rostov have 1 only and 2 games left.

What am I missing here Of course Rostov can be third--it's just unlikely. if they beat PSV on matchday 6, they finish third.

[bugylibicska]

@ Dragonite
``Perhaps Ajax can even meet again Rostov in the EL last 32… although right now it seems unlikely that Rostov will finish third in its CL group and drop to the EL.``

Unfortunately it`s not just unlikely, but impossible, Rostov cannot be 3rd anymore. Bayern have 9 poinys and Rostov have 1 only and 2 games left.

What am I missing here Of course Rostov can be third--it's just unlikely. if they beat PSV on matchday 6, they finish third.

Old age doing its tricks on me. Somehow in my mind it was 2nd place Dragonite wrote about...

[AlanK]

Old age doing its tricks on me. Somehow in my mind it was 2nd place Dragonite wrote about...

Indeed, I can relate to that.

[Dragonite]

Group G
Ajax 13 points (Qualified and Group Winner)
Standard Liège 6
Celta de Vigo 6
Panathinaikos 1 (Eliminated)

Final MD:
Panathinaikos vs. Celta de Vigo
Standard Liège vs. Ajax

Ajax won the group.

Panathinaikos is eliminated and sure to finish last.
Shameful campaign for them… If they don’t win today, this will be their second consecutive EL group stage without a single win. They are currently in a winless streak of 12 matches; their last win was in November 2012 against Maribor. And before that win, they had another winless streak of 12 matches (two against Standard Liège in 2009/2010 EL + their entire 2010/2011 CL group + the first 4 2012/2013 EL matches)

They used to be a much better team, between 2006/2007 and 2009/2010 they advanced from the group stages four seasons in a row (two UEFA Cups + 1 CL + 1 EL)… Now they failed to do it for the fourth consecutive attempt, and only won one of their 17 matches!!
It’s really depressing…


Standard Liège and Celta de Vigo are leveled on points and have neutral head-to-head: two 1-1 draws.
Currently Standard Liège has a goal difference of +2, while Celta de Vigo only has +1, so Standard Liège only has to match Celta de Vigo’s score today to advance.

I don’t know who has an easier task here, Standard Liège (home advantage and better goal difference to start with?), or Celta de Vigo (weaker opponent and maybe “Spanish armour”).

[Dragonite]

Group H
Shakhtar Donetsk 15 points (Qualified and Group Winner)
Braga 6
Gent 5
Konyaspor 1 (Eliminated)

Final MD:
Braga vs. Shakhtar Donetsk
Konyaspor vs. Gent

Braga will advance if they win, or if Gent doesn’t.
Gent will advance if they win and Braga doesn’t.

Konyaspor was a waste of a direct EL spot. Currently only Qabala with 0 points prevents them from being the worst EL team.
Actually, at least Qabala survived four qualifying rounds to get here, while Konyaspor… got its EL spot on court when Galatasaray was suspended, thanks to the points that mostly Galatasaray collected for Turkey over the last seasons…
Let’s see if at least they can win today. An EL campaign with 4 points wouldn’t be that bad, but if they don’t, a winless campaign with 1 or 2 points is shameful.
Turkey used to be the country without failures in the EL group stages, last season Besiktas broke that “tradition”, but this season Konyaspor’s hole was a lot deeper.