Battle for the 9-12th Place

including formats, draws, seedings, etc.
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Aidann
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Post by Aidann »

Why do you miss so much time and topics complaining about UEFA changing rules to benefit big leagues? This topic was about the importance of finishing 11th, so the national champion would get direct access to the UCL GS. And again you start discussing about the fairness of having 4 direct spots in the GS for bigger countries. Keep crying if you want, UEFA don't give a damn about fairness with minnows. These are their rules and there are only going to get worse in the future.
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Ricardo
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Post by Ricardo »

Yes, back to topic.
This is the playing field. Listed are spots 8-17, the teams and their opponents

Code: Select all

CL	Bel	Anderlecht		B	Bayern			PSG				Celtic
EL	Bel	Zulte Waregem		K	Lazio			OGC Nice			Vitesse
CL	Ukr	Shakhtar Donetsk	F	Man City			Napoli			Feyenoord
EL	Ukr	Zorya Luhansk		J	Athletic Bilbao		Hertha BSC		Ostersund
EL	Ukr	Dinamo Kiev		B	Young Boys		Partizan			Skenderbeu
CL	Tur	Besiktas			G	Monaco			Porto			Leipzig
EL	Tur	Istanbul Basaksehir	C	1899 Hoffenheim	Braga			Ludogorets
EL	Tur	Konyaspor			I	Olimpique Marseille	Vitória Guimarães	RB Salzburg
CL	Ned	Feyenoord			F	Man City			Napoli			Shakthar Donetsk
EL	Ned	Vitesse Arnhem		K	Lazio			OGC Nice			Zulte Waregem
CL	Gre	Olympiakos Piraeus	D	Juventus			Barcelona			Sporting Portugal
EL	Gre	AEK Athens		D	AC Milan			Austria Wien		NK Rijeka
EL	Aut	Austria Wien		D	AC Milan			AEK Athens		NK Rijeka
EL	Aut	RB Salzburg		I	Olimpique Marseille	Vitória Guimarães	Konyaspor
EL	Cze	Slavia Praha		A	Villarreal			M Tel aviv			Astana
EL	Cze	FC Zlin			F	Lokomotiv Moscow	FC København		Sherrif Tiraspol
EL	Cze	Viktoria Plzen		G	FC Lugano			Hapoel Beer-Sheva	Steaua Bucuresti
CL	Sui	FC Basel			A	Benfica			Man Utd			CSKA Moskou
EL	Sui	Young Boys		B	Dinamo Kiev		Partizan			Skenderbeu
EL	Sui	FC Lugano			G	Viktoria Plzen		Hapoel Beer-Sheva	Steaua Bucuresti
EL	Cro	NK Rijeka			D	AC Milan			AEK Athens		Austria Wien
EL	Den	FC København		F	Lokomotiv Moscow	FC Zlin			Sherrif Tiraspol
I think Bel and Ukr (8&9) are out of reach for the others. Ukraine can get close to Belgium, but Turkey won't get close to Ukraine.
Turkey seems pretty safe for spot 10 too.
Then it is all open Netherlands and Greece have a very tough CL draw and an interesting EL. Austria and especiay Czech and Switzeland with an extra team can get closer and even pass them.
Croatia and Denmark will need a good run from their remaining team. Not really likely they will reach 15th spot. so maybe I should have left them out her...
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bjkman1903
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Post by bjkman1903 »

8 Belgium 37.100 (2/5)
9 Ukraine 34.933 (3/5)
10 Turkey 30.600 (3/5)
11 Netherlands 28.549 (2/5)
-----------------------------------------------
12 Austria 26.600 (2/4)
-----------------------------------------------
13 Greece 26.600 (2/5)
14 Czech Republic 25.975 (3/5)
15 Switzerland 25.000 (3/5)

I pretty much agree with Ricardo.

This might be Belgium's worst season in recent years but they are likely to finish on spot 8 (or 9, if Ukraine catches them)
Ukraine is also safe thanks to their main challengers losing teams to weaker opponents.

At the beginning of the season I thought that Turkey and Netherlands were safe for spot 10 and 11. Now that they lost Galatasaray, Fenerbahçe (Turkey) and PSV, Ajax (Netherlands), they may be in danger. Especially the Netherlands.

What I would expect from now on -

Bel - Anderlecht to fight with Celtic for the 3rd place, and failing (based on their current performance in the Belgian league, and results of Belgian teams overall this season in Europe). Zulte to fail in their EL group
0 team left after GS

Ukr - Dinamo Kiev to qualify with ease, Shaktar to fight with Feyenoord for the 3rd place and win it, Zorya to fail.
2 teams left after GS

Tur - Besiktas got an interesting draw where anything could happen - roughly 50-50 to be still alive in spring or not.
Basaksehir got a tough group, but based on their results against Brugge and Sevilla (and the poor performance of Braga) I think they may qualify.
Konya got a weaker group, and although they are not bad this year I don't see them surviving the group.
1-2 team(s) left after GS

Ned - Feyenoord will probably fight with Shaktar for the 3rd place, and I expect them to finish 4th. Vitesse is likely to fail in their EL group.
0 team left after GS

Gre - Olympiakos will fight with Sporting for the 3rd place. I think they will make it (Sporting also failed last season against Legia, and they are not reliable like Porto or Benfica)
AEK got a decent chance for the 2nd spot, that would roughly be 50-50 imo
1-2 team(s) left after GS

Aus - Austria got a balanced group (excluding Milan), they have decent chances to qualify but I have a feeling that they would fail (I expect either Rijeka or AEK to qualify instead)
Salzburg should in theory qualify from this group
1 team left after GS

Cze - Zlin will probably not survive this group, and same fate for Slavia which were disappointing so far this season. Plzen should be strong enough to qualify
1 team left after GS

Swi - Basel v CSKA for the 3rd spot, I expect them win this battle. Young Boys is likely to finish 2nd, while Lugano has no chance imo.
1-2 team(s) left after GS
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Aidann
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Post by Aidann »

betrayor wrote:If i am not mistaken in case both CL and EL winners qualify though their league then the thampions of association 11 and 12 will qualify for the cl groups.
Question for betrayor: knowing that Olympiakos is the most hated team in Greece and having won 19 of the latest 21 national championships... In case AEK Athens has the chance of scoring an extra point in their last match of their European season, and Greece needing that point to reach 11th place in the UEFA rankings, do you think there is any chance of AEK deliberately playing to lose in order to avoid Olympiakos qualiying directly to the UCL GS?
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Firnen
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Post by Firnen »

Aidann wrote:
betrayor wrote:If i am not mistaken in case both CL and EL winners qualify though their league then the thampions of association 11 and 12 will qualify for the cl groups.
Question for betrayor: knowing that Olympiakos is the most hated team in Greece and having won 19 of the latest 21 national championships... In case AEK Athens has the chance of scoring an extra point in their last match of their European season, and Greece needing that point to reach 11th place in the UEFA rankings, do you think there is any chance of AEK deliberately playing to lose in order to avoid Olympiakos qualiying directly to the UCL GS?
I don't think players think that way.
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betrayor
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Post by betrayor »

Aidann wrote:
betrayor wrote:If i am not mistaken in case both CL and EL winners qualify though their league then the thampions of association 11 and 12 will qualify for the cl groups.
Question for betrayor: knowing that Olympiakos is the most hated team in Greece and having won 19 of the latest 21 national championships... In case AEK Athens has the chance of scoring an extra point in their last match of their European season, and Greece needing that point to reach 11th place in the UEFA rankings, do you think there is any chance of AEK deliberately playing to lose in order to avoid Olympiakos qualiying directly to the UCL GS?
It is possible that some fans may want this, but the team it self and the players would do their best to win , because especially AEK need the points for their own coefficient which was destroyed because AEK was missing Europe for 5 years(because of their relegation)
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Forza AZ
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Post by Forza AZ »

Aidann wrote:Question for betrayor: knowing that Olympiakos is the most hated team in Greece and having won 19 of the latest 21 national championships... In case AEK Athens has the chance of scoring an extra point in their last match of their European season, and Greece needing that point to reach 11th place in the UEFA rankings, do you think there is any chance of AEK deliberately playing to lose in order to avoid Olympiakos qualiying directly to the UCL GS?
And then risk being left out of the CL-GS if AEK has a very good season in 2018-19 and beating Olympiacos in the title race.
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Ricardo
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Post by Ricardo »

Come on, stay on topic......
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Post by matt »

Good news for Austria and Czech Republic. Olympiakos has now a very difficult job in their group. It won't be easy for Greece to achieve the 12th place without Olympiakos in spring, especially without PAOK in El.
For me AEK Athens will qualify for the next round though, but Viktoria Plzen and Salzburg too. And Slavia Praha, Zlin and Austria Wien could find the points that Greece won't find, unless Olympiakos perform a miracle. Let's see.
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Dragan Mance
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Post by Dragan Mance »

Aek in front of Rijeka u EL? No way...
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bjkman1903
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Post by bjkman1903 »

After CL games (MD1), Ukraine (9) got slightly closer to Belgium (8).
Turkey (10) increased the gap with Netherlands (11) - Besiktas increased its chances to survive the group, while Feyenoord is in big trouble after Shaktar's win.
No change below but Olympiakos lost a very important game against Sporting at home and now they are favourite to finish 4th in their group.

Let's see how it goes with EL. :)
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Post by Duketown »

bjkman1903 wrote:After CL games (MD1), Ukraine (9) got slightly closer to Belgium (8).
Turkey (10) increased the gap with Netherlands (11) - Besiktas increased its chances to survive the group, while Feyenoord is in big trouble after Shaktar's win.
ouch. Vitesse and Feyenoord have to pull off 8 stunts to prevent on of the worsed Eredivisie season in UEFA leagues, ever. Losing Direct Access CL ticket is terrible.
Also Ukrain managed to stay out of this fight, for now.
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bjkman1903
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Post by bjkman1903 »

Duketown wrote:
bjkman1903 wrote:After CL games (MD1), Ukraine (9) got slightly closer to Belgium (8).
Turkey (10) increased the gap with Netherlands (11) - Besiktas increased its chances to survive the group, while Feyenoord is in big trouble after Shaktar's win.
ouch. Vitesse and Feyenoord have to pull off 8 stunts to prevent on of the worsed Eredivisie season in UEFA leagues, ever. Losing Direct Access CL ticket is terrible.
Also Ukrain managed to stay out of this fight, for now.
You'll only lose direct access to CL if you lose your current 11th place.

But I agree with you that it does not look great with only Feyenoord and Vitesse left.
Belgium is also pretty much in the same situation. I think Ukraine can definitely catch them with D. Kiev and Shaktar collecting a lot of points.
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Ricardo
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Post by Ricardo »

Today EL starts. That is the real important thing for this fight(11-15, Ukraine and Turkey have shown that 9th and 10th are secured)
Nice comes with a B-team to Vitesse. If Vitesse thinks of passing the GS, they will need to win this one....
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BurningStorm
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Post by BurningStorm »

Ricardo wrote: Nice comes with a B-team to Vitesse.
Do you mean Lazio?
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