2017/18 CL GRP D Juventus x Barcelona x Olympiacos x Sporting

[bugylibicska]

To win, to qualify:

1.06 Barcelona no odds given
8.00 Juventus 1.06
34.00 Sporting 6.00
251.00 Olympiakos 67.00

[Dragonite]

Expected results in this group.

We learned that even a Barcelona team playing with 10 players for more than half of the match is way too good for Olympiakos.
How many more players would Barcelona have to get sent off in order for this to be a balanced match? One, two…?

Maybe Olympiakos will me more competitive next time, playing in front of their fans.


As for Sporting, nobody can blame them of not being “competitive”, as this was their sixth defeat in a row against “big” CL teams “only” by a goal difference – twice against Real Madrid and twice against Borussia Dortmund last season, plus Barcelona and now Juventus this season.
I’d still say though that it’s better to lose 0-6 once than losing 0-1 (or 1-2) six times.
They learned that lesson (or should have) last season, when Legia Warsaw that lost heavily against the big teams thrice (0-6, 1-5 and 4-8) then managed to get a draw once, and in the end that draw was crucial for them to finish above Sporting, who was unable to get a single point from these matches.

Sporting should try to get at least one point from the match against Juventus (instead of being happy to “only” lose 0-1). It would remove the pressure from the following match against Olympiakos, where a defeat can send them to the group’s last place again, just like last season.

[Dragonite]

Surprising results in this group too (although not as surprising as in Group C).

Olympiakos was building the foundations of another “Legia”, with 1 point against Barcelona that would promote them to the third spot with a simple win in Portugal (no need to worry about head-to-head anymore).

But Sporting countered it with 1 point against Juventus too, which sent Olympiakos back to square one.
They still have to win in Portugal 4-3 or better… or at least simply win and then get more points than Sporting in round 6.

Sporting with a home draw against Olympiakos will secure the 3rd spot. With a home win they’ll do it too and arrive to round 6 fighting for a top 2 spot.

Supposing that they defeat Olympiakos at home, which result is more advantageous for Sporting in Juventus vs. Barcelona?

If Juventus loses, then Sporting will be second if they get a better result in round 6 than Juventus.
If it’s a draw, then Sporting will be second if and only if they win in Spain and Juventus doesn’t win in Greece.
And if Juventus wins, then Sporting will be second with a non-1-0 win in Spain.

So, it seems that for Sporting and its top 2 ambitions, the most advantageous scenario would be a Juventus win against Barcelona.


I think that Sporting has much more advantages to finish 3rd and continue in EL 32, instead of advancing to the CL last 16. In the CL last 16 they should be easy prey for almost everybody else (although they have good memories from facing teams like Manchester City and Besiktas, who are currently leading their groups).
While in the EL they could advance several rounds against easier opposition.

[Aliceag]

Congratulations to Sporting! This time they actually made it and were able to beat the 4th place team twice! So echoes of 2012?... Let's see. It's not impossible for Sporting to win in Barcelona if they play the way they did in Madrid last year, knowing that Barcelona is already qualified and might relax. On the other hand it's not impossible either for Juventus to tie in Greece if Olympiakos plays with pride and set an ultradefensive team.... So hope is the last one to die... I'd say that expectations have already been met (pot 3 team, 3rd place), but I have high hopes now. With a team like this and favourable draws Jesus might even make a "Benfica" and lead this Sporting very, very far in EL. That would not be an irrealistic scenario!

[Thunder_PT]

Congratulations to Sporting! This time they actually made it and were able to beat the 4th place team twice! So echoes of 2012?... Let's see. It's not impossible for Sporting to win in Barcelona if they play the way they did in Madrid last year, knowing that Barcelona is already qualified and might relax. On the other hand it's not impossible either for Juventus to tie in Greece if Olympiakos plays with pride and set an ultradefensive team.... So hope is the last one to die... I'd say that expectations have already been met (pot 3 team, 3rd place), but I have high hopes now. With a team like this and favourable draws Jesus might even make a "Benfica" and lead this Sporting very, very far in EL. That would not be an irrealistic scenario!

Sporting were in Pot 4.

[Aliceag]

Oh, is that so? It really never "felt" like it. Even better then! They are showing that being "pot 4" is really not their "place".

[Dragonite]

You guys must stop with this bad habit of claiming that a pot N team finishing in position N-1, N-2, N-3 (or N+1, N+2, N+3) “proved” that they should have been ranked higher (or lower).
Ranking is based on PAST RESULTS, not FUTURE RESULTS. And based on past results, Sporting was the worst team in this group (and still is).

[elkjiaer is back]

You guys must stop with this bad habit of claiming that a pot N team finishing in position N-1, N-2, N-3 (or N+1, N+2, N+3) “proved” that they should have been ranked higher (or lower).
Ranking is based on PAST RESULTS, not FUTURE RESULTS. And based on past results, Sporting was the worst team in this group (and still is).

This is absolutely true. Not to forget that Olympiacos almost had twice as many Uefa coefficient points than Sporting when the pots were created.

If we look at the last 5 years:
2012/2013
Olympiacos: CL group stage, 3rd--->EL, round of 32
Sporting CP: EL group stage, 4th

2013/2014
Olympiacos: CL group stage, 2nd--->CL round of 16
Sporting CP: not qualified for european football

2014/2015:
Olympiacos: CL group stage, 3rd--->EL, round of 32
Sporting CP: CL group stage, 3rd--->EL, round of 32

2015/2016:
Olympiacos: CL group stage, 3rd--->EL, round of 32
Sporting CP: EL group stage, 2nd--->EL, round of 32

2016/2017:
Olympiacos: EL group stage, 2nd--->EL, round of 16
Sporting CP: CL group stage, 4th, eliminated

Olympiacos partecipated 4 times in the last 5 years in the CL group stage, never finishing 4th, 3 times finishing 3rd and one time qualifying to the round of 16. In the same period of time SPorting only was in the CL twice, one time finishing 3rd and once finishing 4th.

In any case: Sporting never did better than Olympiacos in the last 5 years.
Best achievement for Sporting: EL, round of 32
Best achievement for Olympiacos: CL round of 16

If we forget for a moment about the 20% country part (which for the last 10 years is 9,866 for Sporting thanks to Portugal and 5,580 for Olympiacos
then we have the following results:
Olympiacos: match points: 38. Bonus points: 21 --->total= 59 points
Sporting CP: match points: 19. Bonus points: 8 --->total= 27 points

[Dragonite]

Congratulations Barcelona for qualifying and winning the group!



It was a tiny revenge for last season’s quarter finals elimination against Juventus, with a 3-0 home win and a 0-0 away draw (last season it was the opposite, a 0-3 away defeat and a 0-0 home draw).

A bigger revenge would have been eliminating Juventus… but to do that, they’ll have to lose the last match, at home against Sporting, and even that won’t be enough if Juventus wins in Greece.
Are they willing to do that? How much will they care about the last match?


Olympiakos is dead last, and will be playing for pride only too.
If they don’t win their last match, at home against Juventus, this will be their worst ever CL campaign (0-3-3 in 2006/2007).
Is this enough to motivate them?


We have “on paper” an indirect fight for the second spot here, with Sporting needing a win in Spain combined with Juventus not winning in Greece.

But if Sporting surpasses Juventus and reaches the CL last 16, will it be advantageous for them?
We already know their results playing against “CL last 16” kind of clubs (0-1-7 against Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Barcelona and Juventus over the last two seasons, two defeats, aggregate score 1-12 the last and only time they were there, against Bayern…).
I think it’s much more advantageous for Sporting to drop to the EL last 32 and try to advance a few rounds there, something that they were unable to do in their last three campaigns, the last time that they progressed from an EL KO round was in the 2011/2012 quarter finals against Metalist Kharkiv, a club that doesn’t even exist anymore!).

Sporting desperately needs to improve its 10-year club ranking, as from next season onwards it will influence the CL prizes.
Until now if Sporting got the same one season results than Porto or Benfica they’d also get the same prize, as being from the same country was all that UEFA cared about. But that will change, so Porto and Benfica, as 8th and 9th placed in that ranking currently, will finally start getting bigger slices of the pie, while Sporting, who is only 34th, will be in disadvantage and only eat tiny crumbs.
The more points they gather now, the more they’ll eat in the future.
And the easiest way to gather points is in the EL last 32 and further, not in the CL last 16.

[Dragonite]

So, Olympiakos confirmed its worst ever CL campaign.

Juventus surely advanced with a win, which wasn’t even necessary because Sporting lost in Spain.
Congratulations anyway for advancing from this group!



Now, like in Group B’s case, these teams will finally face strong opposition in the next round.

Juventus can face Manchester United, PSG, Liverpool, Manchester City, Besiktas or Tottenham.
I’d like to see them against Manchester City. In the 2015/2016 group stages there was room for both to progress, but now there’d only be room for one.

Barcelona can face Basel, Bayern, Chelsea, Shakhtar Donetsk or Porto.
It would be interesting to see them against Bayern, particularly with Heynckes in charge. We all know what happened the last time; would Heynckes be able to do it again? Not necessarily the two defeats aggregate score 0-7, but to eliminate Barcelona again?

Sporting in the EL last 32 as seeded in theory has good chances to progress. However, they don’t advance from a post-group stage KO round since 2011/2012!
The last two times that they were in the EL last 32, they were eliminated by Wolfsburg in 2015 and by Bayer Leverkusen in 2016. They should be happy that there’s only 1 German opponent from their list of 12 possibilities, and that even if they get it, it’s the only team that hasn’t won yet this season.
But it would be more interesting if they faced Steaua Bucharest again, an opponent that they already faced in CLQR4.

The way that Sporting played in Barcelona was pathetic. They were just trying to lose by few, with endless defenders, no striker, not fielding their “best players”… with some bullshit excuse that the domestic league match against Boavista is the priority.
I hope they don’t have that attitude in EL last 32 in February. There is nothing more important than that, particularly for a club that is #44 in UEFA Club Ranking (but has illusions of being a “top 20” club”).
Finishing behind Barcelona and Juventus in a CL group was acceptable, not advancing from the EL last 32 round isn’t.

Prediction
1. Juventus
2. Barcelona
3. Olympiakos
4. Sporting

This group resembles group B.
Here too the top 2 teams weren’t threatened by the others.
Pot 4 Sporting finished above pot 3 Olympiakos, and pot 2 Barcelona finished above pot 1 Juventus, which is surprising at first.
But not that surprising anymore after knowing that Juventus and Olympiakos had almost irreversible results to recover from MD1.

[TheRipper69]

The way that Sporting played in Barcelona was pathetic. They were just trying to lose by few, with endless defenders, no striker, not fielding their “best players”… with some bullshit excuse that the domestic league match against Boavista is the priority.
I hope they don’t have that attitude in EL last 32 in February. There is nothing more important than that, particularly for a club that is #44 in UEFA Club Ranking (but has illusions of being a “top 20” club”).
Finishing behind Barcelona and Juventus in a CL group was acceptable, not advancing from the EL last 32 round isn’t.

First of all, I understand you are a Porto supporter and as such your vision is biased on that.

Second, I feel sad for you not liking the game, personally for me, it was a great game and overall Sporting played well until mid of second half. Having 2 strikers injured and Bas dost with physical problems makes you play with no striker...

Third, Sporting has no illusions of being a top 20, Sporting can easily achieve it, if well managed, like Porto or Benfica achieved.

Personally, I find your vision of football very disturbing... It seems for you talking about other Portuguese clubs it's all about rivalries.

Well, congratulations on your team moving forward and best of luck for the rest of the competition. I am really enjoying the way how Porto is playing this year, seems they have endless stamina.

[og2002gr]

Prediction:

1. Juventus 70%
2. Barcelona 70%
3. Sporting CP 30%
4. Olympiacos 30%

Barcelona is far from convincing this season, but they easily won first place, over an even less convincing Juventus.
Despite looking worse than last season, the difference between those two and following duo was big.

Sporting CP had a huge improvement.
After finishing behind Legia last season, this time they beat easily their main opponent twice, leading in both legs 3-0 before conceding late 86+ goals.
I think they would have better chances in other groups, but they will also have the chance to prove themselves in EL.
Having 6 elimination in 7 GS attempts (half of them being in last place) I can't understand how they could see themselves as Dragonite tells us.

Olympiacos: if Sporting is a poor CL team, Olympiacos is among the worst.
Having 16/19 participations in 32-teams Group Stage (mainly thanks to direct berths), someone would expect to build on these experiences and tones of money and create a "best of the rest team".
Instead they are by far the team with the most CL eliminations counting 13 failures! Next team is Dynamo Kyiv with 11 and Anderlecht with 9.
They are also ranked 3rd between the teams with most bottom finishes (behind Anderlecht with 8 and Dynamo with 7, leaving CSKA and Dinamo Zagreb behind).
We can assume that these three (Olympiacos, Anderlecht and Dynamo Kyiv) are the worst trio of CL expanded era.
I think Olympiacos will improve in this ranking as they will hardly enter GS in the future, while Anderlecht and Dynamo will have better chances to participate and maybe fail.

No one could ask to threaten giants like Barcelona and Juventus, but their picture against Sporting and their pathetic choice of playing without a striker and with 8-9 defenders in 4/6 games, creates questions of why they were celebrating after beating Rijeka to enter Groups.

[Dragonite]

Sporting CP had a huge improvement.
After finishing behind Legia last season, this time they beat easily their main opponent twice, leading in both legs 3-0 before conceding late 86+ goals.
I think they would have better chances in other groups, but they will also have the chance to prove themselves in EL.
Having 6 elimination in 7 GS attempts (half of them being in last place) I can't understand how they could see themselves as Dragonite tells us.

Third, Sporting has no illusions of being a top 20, Sporting can easily achieve it, if well managed, like Porto or Benfica achieved.

Does that answer your question, og2002gr?
They look at UEFA Ranking, they see Porto and Benfica among the top 20, they hear on a daily basis that they’re “as good as Porto and Benfica or even better” and believe it, so they also see themselves there.

And since they’re not actually there, it’s just an illusion, based on a false assumption.

[Dragonite]

Vitória Guimarães also has the illusion that they're "as good as Braga or better"...

That was true... in 2006!

[Dragonite]

Olympiacos: if Sporting is a poor CL team, Olympiacos is among the worst.
Having 16/19 participations in 32-teams Group Stage (mainly thanks to direct berths), someone would expect to build on these experiences and tones of money and create a "best of the rest team".
Instead they are by far the team with the most CL eliminations counting 13 failures! Next team is Dynamo Kyiv with 11 and Anderlecht with 9.
They are also ranked 3rd between the teams with most bottom finishes (behind Anderlecht with 8 and Dynamo with 7, leaving CSKA and Dinamo Zagreb behind).
We can assume that these three (Olympiacos, Anderlecht and Dynamo Kyiv) are the worst trio of CL expanded era.
I think Olympiacos will improve in this ranking as they will hardly enter GS in the future, while Anderlecht and Dynamo will have better chances to participate and maybe fail.

No one could ask to threaten giants like Barcelona and Juventus, but their picture against Sporting and their pathetic choice of playing without a striker and with 8-9 defenders in 4/6 games, creates questions of why they were celebrating after beating Rijeka to enter Groups.

Olympiakos still has a better CL record than Sporting

They advanced from the group stages 4 times in 18 attempts (22.22%) while Sporting only advanced once in 8 attempts (12.5%).

They collected 135 points from 116 matches, 1.16 PPG
While Sporting only collected 50 points from 50 matches, 1 PPG

Olympiakos only lost 57 of their 116 matches, less than half (49%)
While Sporting lost 28 of their 50 matches, more than half (56%)

Don’t let your preference for the green colour cloud your judgment.