2017/18 CL GRP F Shaktar x Manchester City x Napoli x Feyenoord

[bjkman1903]

Matches

13 September 2017

Shaktar v Napoli
Feyenoord v Man City

26 September 2017

Man City v Shaktar
Napoli v Feyenoord

17 October 2017

Feyenoord v Shaktar
Man City v Napoli

01 November 2017

Shaktar v Feyenoord
Napoli v Man City

21 November 2017

Napoli v Shaktar
Man City v Feyenoord

06 December 2017

Shaktar v Man City
Feyenoord v Napoli

[bugylibicska]

Shakhtar got a terrible draw and on paper they`ve little chance, but I hope they start well vs. Napoli and then we`ll see. And I`m very pleased I`ll be able to watch this game live on Wednesday! 3rd spot should be the minimum, but I`m dreaming of more. They moved their games to Kharkiv, much closer to Donetsk than Lviv, maybe this will help a bit.

[Malko]

my prediction
1) Napoli
2) Manchester City
3) Donetsk
4) feyenoord

[FR-Rinaldo]

Will be visiting all 3 home matches of Feyenoord. Hope we can get the same start as last year vs Manchester United at home (1-0 win)
Also, like last year, we play the 3rd match vs the Ukrainian team at home and the 4th match away in Ukraine.

[og2002gr]

Interesting Group, with 3 Pot 2 teams and a strong Pot 4 team.

Shakhtar is another team that shouldn't be Pot 1 according to co-efficients. But are they a "fraud" like Benfica?
Comparing their results they also have 3 successful qualifiacations through Group Stage, just like Benfica. But unlike portuguese team, their draws are always terrible! Even if they are Pot 2 , their Pot 3 opponents are the hardest: Braga, Zenit, Juventus, Bayer+Real Sociedad, Atletic Club. When they dropped to Pot 3, they got Real+PSG! And now they were "gifted" Pot 1 they meet Napoli! 4/6 opponents were big4 teams (double than Benfica)!
And yet they managed to beat Athletic Club, eliminate Chelsea, and finish over Arsenal. They have 50% success (3/6) under the new system. So they may not be a Pot1 team, but they deserve a Pot 2 status.

Manchester City was also nowhere (like PSG) before "money era". and even failed twice in GS against Napoli 2011 and Dormund 2012. But thanks to CSKA and constant participation they managed to develop, advance 4 seasons in a row, and even win their Group reaching semi-finals (2015-16). This isn't the easiest Group but they are expected to be one of the two teams.

Napoli has taken places 1-2-3 in their 3 last participations. They always have strong performances in GS, no matter their pot or the opponents. They are a real Pot 2 team that should advance.

Feyenoord are debutants here, missing CL for over a decade. But they are champions of a good league, they had a strong start in Eredivisie and the experience of a hard EL group last season. They can cut points from every team and they will put pressure on Shakhtar.


Prediction:
1. Manchester City 70%
2. Napoli 65%
3. Shakhtar 35%
4. Feyenoord 30%

[bugylibicska]

Shakhtar never been a pot 1 team until now, but they should be forgiven to think this ``lucky``seeding brought no joy for them. This draw could have hardly been more terrifying as it is now. To be honest not always looked as bleak their chances, but when drawn into lighter groups (like Porto, Zenit and APOEL for example) they blew it Their biggest miss in the luck department when a few years back they`ve eliminated Roma in the last 16 and I was praying - anybody, but Barca. That was probably the best Shakhtar ever, but Barca were at their peak, as well. And of course Barca`s name came out from the bowl and the rest is history. I`m just happy considering the circumstances they`re still alive.

[Dragonite]

Shakhtar Donetsk will play the CL for the 12th time.
They missed the first eight editions between 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, then between 2000/2001 and 2005/2006 they only played it twice in six editions, and then between 2006/2007 and 2015/2016 they played it almost uninterruptedly (the only exception was 2009/2010, right after winning the UEFA Cup in the previous season).
And then last season they missed it again, after six consecutive participations. They had a new coach, Paulo Fonseca that destroyed in one season the hard work that Mircea Lucescu had in over a decade.
He failed in the CL qualifiers against Young Boys, but this season he was immune from that inconvenience, with direct qualification.
So now he is in CL group stage, pot 1, what can go wrong? He will clean up the mess that he created last season, right?
No, he was exactly in the same situation in his previous (and so far only) CL experience in 2013/2014, in charge of FC Porto. And he still managed to deliver FC Porto’s worst CL campaign of the decade; we have to get back almost 20 years to find a worse one from a quantitative analysis.
He may do exactly the same for Shakhtar Donetsk now, their worst ever CL campaign ever or in a long time, or at least close to that.
Not only he is a lot worse than Mircea Lucescu was, the squad is also a lot worse than the ones Shakhtar Donetsk used to have. Gone are the days when Shakhtar Donetsk had some of Brazil’s finest players up front, like Luiz Adriano, Alex Teixeira, Fernandinho, Willian, Jadson, Douglas Costa, etc.
Nowadays, in this austerity version, they may still pull the occasional Kovalenko out of their youth system, but the squad still has big limitations that the ones in the past hadn’t.
And these limitations are magnified with an incompetent in charge, like Paulo Fonseca is.


Manchester City will play the CL for the 7th consecutive time.
They have this “successful/strong/big club aura”, but are they, really?
They actually have the worst PPG in the last half-decade in this group! Shakhtar has 1.54, Manchester City 1.40, Napoli 1.75 and even Feyenoord has 1.43.
So how did they end up being the highest ranked team in this group, according to UEFA Coefficients? In Feyenoord’s case is quite obvious, the PPG was obtained from a small sample of just 14 matches. But in the other two cases, it’s not that simple. I’d say that it comes from direct qualifications and country contribution, not from actual wins and draws in real matches.
Their “successful/strong/big club aura” is a lie; the only thing that isn’t a lie is the “expensive” tag.
So exactly why have they spent a fortune, what was the return? So far it was “only” a CL semifinal.
Their last season campaign was hilarious. The semifinal from 2015/2016 wasn’t enough, they wanted more, so they got the alleged genius Josep Guardiola to guide them, alongside the already usual 200M€+ shopping list. And what was the result? Instead of improving, they regressed, being eliminated two rounds earlier, by a pot 4 and much cheaper team!
And how have they reacted to this humiliation? Throwing more money at them getting two of their players (Mendy and Bernardo Silva)... They think that throwing money at everybody else will solve all their problems? It won’t. They may have weakened Monaco, but a new “Monaco” will rise.
Having said all that, they have a good coach and a good squad (even though they’re tremendously overpriced), and they should advance from this group.


Napoli will play the CL for the 4th time, 2nd in a row.
They have the highest success rate advancing from CL group stages in this group, 67%. Shakhtar Donetsk has only 27%, Manchester City 67% too, and Feyenoord 25%.
So why is Manchester City’s 67% smaller than Napoli’s 67%? It isn’t, actually it’s even more reliable because it’s from a sample twice as big (4/6 vs. 2/3).
I consider Napoli’s “more successful” because Napoli’s qualitative failure was still a 4-0-2 12 points triple draw situation, where they just lost the triple head-to-head against Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund. While Manchester City’s two failures were a lot more embarrassing – the first one was just 10 points, behind… Napoli! And the second was a 0-0-3 bottom of the group, even behind Ajax!
Napoli was also the only team from this group without the benefit of direct qualification. They had to eliminate Nice to get in. It’s not a serious test, but it’s still more dangerous than no test at all and getting a comfortable direct spot instead.
Plus, Napoli’s last experience in CL qualifiers was traumatizing – they were eliminated by Athletic Bilbao in 2014/2015. Eliminating Nice, although not enough to erase this, at least is still better than the alternative. Being eliminated again would be even more traumatizing this time.
Napoli is nearly perfect in group stages, it’s in KO stages (pre or post group stages) that they often have problems. They’re some kind of Sevilla minus the EL KO stages invulnerability.
They’ve advanced from CL or EL group stages in six of the last seven seasons, the exception is the already mentioned triple draw, and even that can be considered advancing as well if we consider that they were third continued in the EL.
Shakhtar Donetsk on the other hand was last placed six seasons ago, Manchester City was last placed five seasons ago, and Feyenoord couldn’t even advance from its EL group last season.
They also keep the same coach Maurizio Sarri and almost the same players (only two squad changes) compared to last season, which should be an advantage compared to its opponents who will still need time to get used to each others.


Feyenoord will play the CL for the 5th time. They’re back after an absence of fifteen seasons!
They’re almost like a CL debutant; I don’t think they have any advantage over the real debutants Qarabag or Leipzig just because 15 years ago they were here.
But comparisons to other pot 4 teams are a waste of time, since they won’t be facing any of them.
Not only Feyenoord is the smallest team here, they’re also the only one whose coach Giovanni Van Bronckhorst has no CL experience.
Some would say that no experience like Van Bronckhorst is still preferable over a notorious incompetent like Paulo Fonseca. It may be.
But even Paulo Fonseca got 6-0-0 in EL group stage last season, and Maurizio Sarri got the same for Napoli in the previous season. Guardiola was never seen in an EL group but in return never failed to advance from a CL group.
What about Giovanni Van Bronckhorst and his Feyenoord, what have they accomplished in EL last season? Only a win against an uninterested Manchester United, and four points against Zorya.
They won’t be facing Zorya or Rijeka or Standard Liège this time.
I think that this will be Feyenoord’s worst ever CL campaign and they’ll wish they’d never returned. Their score will probably be lower than 5 points, and they may not even win a single match. But who knows, perhaps they can take advantage of Paulo Fonseca’s incompetence. Although that’s actually the most they can do, I don’t see them getting anything else.

Prediction
1. Napoli
2. Manchester City
3. Shakhtar Donetsk
4. Feyenoord

[Dragonite]

I Shakhtar is another team that shouldn't be Pot 1 according to co-efficients. But are they a "fraud" like Benfica?
Comparing their results they also have 3 successful qualifiacations through Group Stage, just like Benfica. But unlike portuguese team, their draws are always terrible! Even if they are Pot 2 , their Pot 3 opponents are the hardest: Braga, Zenit, Juventus, Bayer+Real Sociedad, Atletic Club. When they dropped to Pot 3, they got Real+PSG! And now they were "gifted" Pot 1 they meet Napoli! 4/6 opponents were big4 teams (double than Benfica)!
And yet they managed to beat Athletic Club, eliminate Chelsea, and finish over Arsenal. They have 50% success (3/6) under the new system. So they may not be a Pot1 team, but they deserve a Pot 2 status.

Why are you talking about Benfica here?



Shakhtar was actually above Benfica for a short period between 2009 and 2011.

They were caught because in 2011/2012 they finished BOTTOM of their CL group, while Benfica WON its CL group undefeated.

And then in 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 Benfica was EL finalist twice, while Shakhtar had the same opportunity of an EL campaign in 2013/2014 and couldn’t even make it past the first hurdle, Viktoria Plzen. Or as you’d call it, ONLY Victoria Plzen…
And in 2015/2016 and 2016/2017, again Benfica advanced from its CL groups, two seasons in a row, something that Shakhtar Donetsk was never able to do in its history.
While at the same time Shakhtar Donetsk was doing what? Getting a 1-0-5 in the first one, and in the second getting its ass kicked in CL qualifiers by Young Boys, or excuse me, ONLY Young Boys, ONLY to get its ass kicked again by ONLY Celta de Vigo later in the first EL KO stage.

Am I allowed to use the ONLY prefix when talking about a Spanish team?


I like Shakhtar Donetsk, I consider them the best in Eastern Europe, you’d call them something like “best of the rest” I suppose, but they just don’t have better results than Benfica, no matter how you twist the numbers.


You should stop imagining that Shakhtar would win the games that Benfica lost, and that Benfica would lose the games that Shakhtar won, and focus on the real games instead of imaginary ones.

[Duketown]

@dragonite: feyenoord won from ManU in the first groupstage match; Manu uninterested? Lol... Besides, Feyenoord is the biggest club in this group. However, rankings nor team reflect this but sane reasoning and understanding does. Do you even understand what you're talking about?

Feyenoord atmosphere is iconic, South American style, already for 25 years or so. Even when results are terrible for years, stadium is sold out.
I.e first trainingday, with 9.000 fans, Open Day mostly is in a sold-out stadium, between 45.000 and 50.000. Then there is last practice home-match (last year against Valencia) which is also sold-out! Last season, 21 out of 23 home matches were fully sold-out. Just crazy knowing this club has hardly won any prices the last 20 years while playing in a really outdated stadium. Described season was after being without championship for 18 or so seasons, once even finishing 10th and almost went bankrupt a few times. Fans are there.

Only Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund (probably Atletico) compare to Feyenoord.

On topic: feyenoord needs to be complete to stand a change in this group. Tonight Haps, Nieuwkoop and Jorgensson are not available so a draw is maximum tonight.

[SimonB]

@Duketown

I am sure that Dragonite was attempting to predict in which order the teams might finish in this group, and not trying to conduct a scientific evaluation of the atmospheric conditions surrounding a ground. UEFA have this really boring practice of awarding points for wins and draws otherwise "the big team" Celtic may have done much better yesterday evening.

I do feel however that Napoli would give your team a really good run for its money if we began awarding bonus points for the atmosphere, which would be a really interesting amendment to the coefficient system to help "big clubs" like yours don't you think?

[Duketown]

@simonb: good you know his intentions but unfortunately you have some troubles reading. And the rest of your rant is senseless since Feyenoord is not even my club and I even believe they end 4th, 3rd at best.

Point is that his assessment on Feyenoord was rather silly.

FYI, I will always value a real club (formed around a nice community) like Celtic, Benfica, Feyenoord or Ajax (and many others) above any oligarch toy-club, any time. No matter finances or results. So nowadays I consider Milan, one of my most favoured clubs in the 80s and 90s, to be a sad club.

[og2002gr]

Why are you talking about Benfica here? [...]

Because Shakhtar reminds me of Benfica: many eliminations in CL, successful Europa League / UEFA Cup campaign, "fake" improvement in CL seedings, three qualifications in the 10s.

And then in 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 Benfica was EL finalist twice, while Shakhtar had the same opportunity of an EL campaign in 2013/2014 and couldn’t even make it past the first hurdle, Viktoria Plzen. Or as you’d call it, ONLY Victoria Plzen…
And in 2015/2016 and 2016/2017, again Benfica advanced from its CL groups, two seasons in a row, something that Shakhtar Donetsk was never able to do in its history.
While at the same time Shakhtar Donetsk was doing what? Getting a 1-0-5 in the first one, and in the second getting its ass kicked in CL qualifiers by Young Boys, or excuse me, ONLY Young Boys, ONLY to get its ass kicked again by ONLY Celta de Vigo later in the first EL KO stage.

If we talk about non-CL competitions, Shakhtar won a title (UEFA Cup 2009) Benfica not, so case closed.
If we talk about CL, they both advanced thrice in the last decade. So we have a draw.
Or not if we look at their opponents: Shakhtar had worse seeding and much more difficult draws, while Benfica had much easier ones. Yet they have the same success rate in the last decade: 3/8.
Even their draws after GS favors Benfica (again): When Shakhtar won their Group, they met Roma not Zenit. When they finished 2nd they met Bayern. Not Zenit. Third time it was Dortmund for both.
Am I allowed to count Bayern+Roma as much more difficult opponents than Zenit+Zenit?

Am I allowed to use the ONLY prefix when talking about a Spanish team?

Concerning this certain team I would prefer fraud. Without "".

I like Shakhtar Donetsk, I consider them the best in Eastern Europe, you’d call them something like “best of the rest” I suppose, but they just don’t have better results than Benfica, no matter how you twist the numbers.

Me too. I just don't count Ukranian League as a "weak" one. Maybe in a couple of years if they keep losing ground..
Concerning the comparison with Benfica, the later maybe is more successfull taking into account their results, but Shakhtar has won a European title in the last decade, and as I remember this is of much bigger importance for you
Furthermore, when your obstacles are higher and yet you have similar success, then you must me better.

You should stop imagining that Shakhtar would win the games that Benfica lost, and that Benfica would lose the games that Shakhtar won, and focus on the real games instead of imaginary ones.

This is what I like. Watching how lucky draws and problematic point systems affect history of the clubs.
On the other hand, I don't find much interest talking about managers as you do.
Let's keep our different points of interest without having to apologise hardly, right?

[Duketown]

Feyenoord already being outplayed at half time. It ended in an easy 0-4 for Man-C, and an unusual Feyenoord had nothing to tell. Nothing to be ashamed of; they need to grow and learn.
The stadium restrictions, normally 47.500 reduced by UEFA to 45.000 but due to punishment/warning/decision, now only 32.000. This reduced CL experience in De Kuip is due to so-called-racist plastic banana-incident. The real reason is ofc, Feyenoord hooligans demolishing parts of Rome.

In Napoli, it's hoping that Nieuwkoop, Haps, Jorgensson, Larsson and even Toornstra, give Feyenoord the much needed quality impulse. Kramer and Nelom can't compete at this level. This would also allow them to test their normal formation, 4-3-3, at CL-level. Also, Napoli won't allow Feyenoord fans.

Most positive Feyenoord players I saw today where Boetius and Amrabat. Also Van der Heijden.

Both Shaktar and Napoli seem really solid and strong. Maybe Feyenoord can challenge either one of them if their small core of CL-ready players are topfit.

[bugylibicska]

Shakhtar got a terrible draw and on paper they`ve little chance, but I hope they start well vs. Napoli and then we`ll see. And I`m very pleased I`ll be able to watch this game live on Wednesday! 3rd spot should be the minimum, but I`m dreaming of more. They moved their games to Kharkiv, much closer to Donetsk than Lviv, maybe this will help a bit.

Shakhtar were better than I`ve expected, though I`ve predicted their win it was more of a wishful thinking than confidence. And it was very important to win this game, because any other result would mean Shakhtar probably could have kissed good bye to any dreams and hopes. Napoli were a bit disappointing, I`ve expected more from them. Now Shakhtar have a decent chance on paper, but I still think less than 50%. 3rd place though looks within reach especially after Feyenoord`s dismal performance. The crowd in Kharkiv were fantastic, supporting Shakhtar at every phase of the game. City now looks heavy favourites to top this group.

[Dragonite]

Am I allowed to count Bayern+Roma as much more difficult opponents than Zenit+Zenit?

A team’s strength isn’t constant.
When Shakhtar faced Roma, in 2010/2011, Roma (#16) was indeed stronger than Zenit (#31).
These were their positions in the end of the season, considering the previous half-decade.
See it for yourself, I don’t want to elaborate much since neither Roma nor Zenit are part of this group:
http://kassiesa.net/uefa/graphs/trank-graph-display.php

But ever since then, Zenit caught them, and has been above them ever since. Zenit is currently #19 while Roma is only #37, so Zenit is a top team, if we consider the top 20 to be the top teams, while Roma is a secondary team, since they’re only in the 21st to 40th group (and very close to the bottom and becoming a third rank team by the way, just like Zenit is close to the bottom of the best teams). Actually, perhaps Roma isn’t even worthy of being in the second group, if we remove the country part!

I don’t understand this anti-Zenit impression that people have (some are now considering worse than Real Sociedad too in their EL group!!), but I’ll keep talking about Zenit in their EL group topic (and about Roma in its CL group topic).

Concerning the comparison with Benfica, the later maybe is more successfull taking into account their results, but Shakhtar has won a European title in the last decade, and as I remember this is of much bigger importance for you

Yes, you are right. On the long run, Shakhtar wins, as trophies are the only thing that stays forever.
In 40 or 50 years, nobody will care about which was Benfica’s or Shakhtar’s or anyone else’s coefficient. But everybody will know who were the CL and EL winners – Lucescu’s name will be there in the history books alongside his legendary team, while Benfica’s unsuccessful team will perhaps be worthy of a footnote only - “the nameless guys that lost two finals in a row against Chelsea and Sevilla”.

This is what I like. Watching how lucky draws and problematic point systems affect history of the clubs.
On the other hand, I don't find much interest talking about managers as you do.
Let's keep our different points of interest without having to apologise hardly, right?

Sure.
If you don’t mind, I may even adopt your “style” for a while to talk about some of the EL teams in my previews.
Since I don’t have much to say about many of them, I’ll talk about the “unfairness” of direct qualification, pot climbing, etc.