Re: 3rd round in the ELGS, Oct.19, 2017

Champions League, Europa League, Conference League
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CrabCZ
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Post by CrabCZ »

Ed wrote: Hey Bugy, what are CL-numbers doing in an EL-thread ? :D

Here are the same numbers for the EL-groups since it's inception in 2009/2010 until last season.
The probabilities to go through to the knock-out stages per number of points made halfway the group-stage after MD3:
0: 0-21 (0%)
1: 3-50 (6%)
2: 4-26 (13%)
3: 17-42 (29%)
4: 33-37 (47%)
5: 28-6 (82%)
6: 37-9 (80%)
7: 42-1 (98%)
9: 28-0 (100%)

Luckily, quite the same pattern :wink:
5pts > 6pts :)

6pts is one extra point for you, but also 1 extra point for your rival(s) (W-T-T = 5p/2p, W-W-L = 6p/3p).
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bugylibicska
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Post by bugylibicska »

Ed wrote:
bugylibicska wrote:How many have gone through or out on each points tally since 2003/04?

Points: Through-Out (% through)
0: 0-37 (0%)
1: 7-55 (11%)
2: 4-18 (18%)
3: 17-54 (24%)
4: 31-39 (44%)
5: 16-6 (73%)
6: 58-11 (84%)
7: 49-4 (92%)
9: 42-0 (100%)
Hey Bugy, what are CL-numbers doing in an EL-thread ? :D

Here are the same numbers for the EL-groups since it's inception in 2009/2010 until last season.
The probabilities to go through to the knock-out stages per number of points made halfway the group-stage after MD3:
0: 0-21 (0%)
1: 3-50 (6%)
2: 4-26 (13%)
3: 17-42 (29%)
4: 33-37 (47%)
5: 28-6 (82%)
6: 37-9 (80%)
7: 42-1 (98%)
9: 28-0 (100%)

Luckily, quite the same pattern :wink:
I`ll have eye surgery (cataract) in January, if successful I might not mix up numbers and letters. :)
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OMfan
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Post by OMfan »

OMfan, I hope you do not think what you say.......the german ligue is going downwards, the french is going upwards, and it is a natural phenomenon. France always had the best players in Europe, but lost them one after another to England and Spain. Now that there is some money which allows to keep them, it's normal they get back to the Top.
Now yes, germany has this year some "newbies", France had every year other teams in European Cups (Montpellier, Lille,Rennes,.....disappeared as sonn as they came). and Germany has the newbies because there are no more very bif teams except bayern and the "newbie" Leipzig which is their best presently.
Dear Malko,

I think what i said. Yes for the first year since a decade, ligue1 stop his fall, it doesn't mean we are about to catch Germany which his faaaaaar away.
The fact Germany has a bad year desn't mean it going down.
And yes French teams (Lille, OM, Lyon, Nice) have a little more Money. But where do you see it allows French teams to keep their players?? Lacazette, Tolisso, Gonalon, Vainqueur, Gomis, Mendy, Bernardo Silva, Dalbert, Bakayoko...all gone away.
Only Paris could keep its best player and buy others. It's not the French ligue1.
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Malko
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Post by Malko »

OMfan, maybe you also consider that Ligue1 loses more players than the Bundesliga is due to that they are better.....
About OM, they would easily play each year at least EL if they would play in germany...too many teams the 3 points are guaranteed, which is never the case in Ligue 1.(except Metz...LOL). But the same way, Metz would not be last in a Bundesliga but about 13-14.....and that's all the differecne between both leagues.....much more competitivity in France, and....a faster game. Now, good luck for the Classico tonight.
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BurningStorm
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Post by BurningStorm »

Malko wrote: About OM, they would easily play each year at least EL if they would play in germany...
How about Nice (3rd) losing twice against Schalke (10th) last season? :upset:
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Overgame
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Post by Overgame »

Malko wrote:OMfan, maybe you also consider that Ligue1 loses more players than the Bundesliga is due to that they are better.....
About OM, they would easily play each year at least EL if they would play in germany...too many teams the 3 points are guaranteed, which is never the case in Ligue 1.(except Metz...LOL). But the same way, Metz would not be last in a Bundesliga but about 13-14.....and that's all the differecne between both leagues.....much more competitivity in France, and....a faster game. Now, good luck for the Classico tonight.
How about ....

1) One has never won the UC or EL.

2) One has 4 teams in the top 16, 6 in the top 36, 12 in the top 100 and a 13th 114th. The other has his 4th best team 58th, his 6th 75th, his 8th 99th and one 110th, one 117th.
2bis) The total is : one has 13 teams qualified in Europe during 5 years, the other only 10.

3) About the qualification for CLR2, one has a record of 3-2-4-4-3. 16/20, good score.
The other's record is 2-1-2-1-1. 7/15, exam failed.
3bis) The 4 "failures" for the first were one elimination in CLqRounds, one last place and two 3rd place.
The 8 "failures" for the second were 3 eliminations in CLqRounds, 4 last place and one 3rd place.

4) About the qualification for ELR2, 2one has a record of 1-3-2-1-4. 11/16, decent score.
The other's record is 1-2-1-1-2. 7/18, exam failed.

So a team who can reach the CL, pass the ELGS wouldn't qualify for EL against team not good enough to pass the ELGS. Sure Malko, take your medecine and go sleep.
bugylibicska
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Post by bugylibicska »

The odds to win after the 3rd round:

Arsenal 6.50
Milan 10.00
Lazio 15.00
Zenit 17.00
Villarreal 21.00
Lyon, Real Sociedad 23.00
Atalanta, Marseille 29.00
A. Bilbao, Nice 34.00
D. Kyiv, Everton, Salzburg 51.00...
SimonB
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Post by SimonB »

bugylibicska wrote:The odds to win after the 3rd round:

Arsenal 6.50
Milan 10.00
Lazio 15.00
Zenit 17.00
Villarreal 21.00
Lyon, Real Sociedad 23.00
Atalanta, Marseille 29.00
A. Bilbao, Nice 34.00
D. Kyiv, Everton, Salzburg 51.00...
The Bookmaker here only seems to be quoting odds for those clubs who are currently in the EL which I always find strange.

Surely Dortmund, who according to Euroclubindex have a 91% chance to reach the EL last 32 stand a better chance than either Salzburg or (Everton 51.00 :shock: ), with a few other biggish clubs standing a fair chance of being in the EL too?
bugylibicska
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Post by bugylibicska »

SimonB wrote:
bugylibicska wrote:The odds to win after the 3rd round:

Arsenal 6.50
Milan 10.00
Lazio 15.00
Zenit 17.00
Villarreal 21.00
Lyon, Real Sociedad 23.00
Atalanta, Marseille 29.00
A. Bilbao, Nice 34.00
D. Kyiv, Everton, Salzburg 51.00...
The Bookmaker here only seems to be quoting odds for those clubs who are currently in the EL which I always find strange.

Surely Dortmund, who according to Euroclubindex have a 91% chance to reach the EL last 32 stand a better chance than either Salzburg or (Everton 51.00 :shock: ), with a few other biggish clubs standing a fair chance of being in the EL too?
If my memory recalls it correctly they used to give odds under ``other``,but now omitted.
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