UEFA European Football Forum

For all discussions on European Football.
http://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum2/

Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

http://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum2/viewtopic.php?t=3731

Page 1 of 7

Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 15:35
by Aidann

Code: Select all

                Expected Got Delta
Din Zagreb          0,42  2  +1,58
Molde               0,42  2  +1,58
Lok Moscow          0,56  2  +1,44
Zenit               0,59  2  +1,41
Juventus            0,64  2  +1,36
Basel               0,68  2  +1,32
PSV                 0,80  2  +1,20
Rapid Vienna        0,85  2  +1,15
Braga               1,06  2  +0,94
FC Midtjylland      1,10  2  +0,90
Sion                1,19  2  +0,81

Code: Select all

Partizan Belgrade   1,25  2  +0,75
Wolfsburg           1,32  2  +0,68
Marseille           1,33  2  +0,67
Schalke 04          1,35  2  +0,65
Atletico Madrid     1,39  2  +0,61
Athletic Bilbao     1,42  2  +0,58
Sevilla             1,44  2  +0,56
Napoli              1,51  2  +0,49
Plzen               1,54  2  +0,46
Roma                0,56  1  +0,44
Bayern Munich       1,58  2  +0,42
Besiktas            1,58  2  +0,42

Code: Select all

Rosenborg           0,61  1  +0,39
Tottenham           1,66  2  +0,34
Celtic              0,68  1  +0,32
Belenenses          0,68  1  +0,32
Dortmund            1,73  2  +0,27
Bayer Leverkusen    1,74  2  +0,26
Benfica             1,77  2  +0,23
Real Madrid         1,80  2  +0,20
Asteras Tripolis    0,81  1  +0,19
Chelsea             1,83  2  +0,17
Gent                0,85  1  +0,15
Gabala              0,85  1  +0,15

Code: Select all

PSG                 1,86  2  +0,14
Anderlecht          0,90  1  +0,10
Bordeaux            0,94  1  +0,06
Dynamo Kiev         0,97  1  +0,03
Lazio               0,98  1  +0,02
Dnipro              1,02  1  -0,02
Porto               1,03  1  -0,03
Liverpool           1,06  1  -0,06
Monaco              1,10  1  -0,10
Malmo FF            0,14  0  -0,14
Lyon                1,15  1  -0,15
PAOK Saloniki       1,15  1  -0,15

Code: Select all

Maccabi Tel Aviv    0,17  0  -0,17
Sparta Prague       1,19  1  -0,19
Shakhtar Donetsk    0,20  0  -0,20
FC Astana           0,23  0  -0,23
BATE Borisov        0,26  0  -0,26
FK Krasnodar        0,27  0  -0,27
Ajax                1,32  1  -0,32
Lech Poznan         1,32  1  -0,32
FK Karabakh         0,34  0  -0,34
St Etienne          1,39  1  -0,39
Olympiakos          0,42  0  -0,42
Skenderbeu          0,42  0  -0,42

Code: Select all

Barcelona           1,44  1  -0,44
Dinamo Minsk        0,46  0  -0,46
Club Brugge         0,49  0  -0,49
Monchengladbach     0,56  0  -0,56
Augsburg            0,58  0  -0,58
Galatasaray         0,61  0  -0,61
APOEL Nicosia       0,65  0  -0,65
Groningen           0,67  0  -0,67
CSKA Moscow         0,68  0  -0,68
AZ Alkmaar          0,75  0  -0,75
Rubin Kazan         0,81  0  -0,81
Legia Warsaw        0,90  0  -0,90

Code: Select all

Slovan Liberec      0,94  0  -0,94
Villarreal          1,15  0  -1,15
Man Utd             1,20  0  -1,20
Fiorentina          1,32  0  -1,32
Man City            1,36  0  -1,36
Valencia            1,41  0  -1,41
Sporting Lisbon     1,44  0  -1,44
Arsenal             1,58  0  -1,58
Fenerbahce          1,58  0  -1,58

Re: Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 15:41
by Aidann

Code: Select all

          Expected Got Delta
Switzerland   1,87  4  +2,13
Norway        1,03  3  +1,97
Croatia       0,42  2  +1,58
Austria       0,85  2  +1,15
Germany       8,86 10  +1,14
Russia        2,91  4  +1,09
Italy         5,01  6  +0,99
Denmark       1,10  2  +0,9
Serbia        1,25  2  +0,75

Code: Select all

Scotland      0,68  1  +0,32
France        7,77  8  +0,23
Portugal      5,98  6  +0,02
Sweden        0,14  0  -0,14
Israel        0,17  0  -0,17
Azerbaijan    1,19  1  -0,19
Ukraine       2,19  2  -0,19
Kazakhstan    0,23  0  -0,23
Belgium       2,24  2  -0,24
Greece        2,38  2  -0,38

Code: Select all

Albania       0,42  0  -0,42
Netherlands   3,54  3  -0,54
Cyprus        0,65  0  -0,65
Czech Rep     3,67  3  -0,67
Belarus       0,72  0  -0,72
Spain        10,05  9  -1,05
Poland        2,22  1  -1,22
Turkey        3,77  2  -1,77
England       8,69  5  -3,69

Re: Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 16:07
by greenbay
Interesting. Less than 1/3 of countries overperformed. More than 2/3 were underperformers.

Side note: can you please make it "got" less "expected" equals "delta"? As this "delta" is the sorting basis.

Re: Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 16:12
by SHEV
Really nice, but wouldn't it be better with 2 points for a win basis?

Re: Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 17:20
by Aidann
greenbay wrote:Side note: can you please make it "got" less "expected" equals "delta"? As this "delta" is the sorting basis.
:thumbs:

Re: Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 17:22
by Thunder_PT
SHEV wrote:Really nice, but wouldn't it be better with 2 points for a win basis?
I agree, the way it is you have, for example, Dynamo Kyiv and Porto both underperforming...

Re: Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 18:05
by greenbay
On second thought, the three point rule is the reason for 2/3 underperformers. Teams splitting points will usually be underperformers that way.

Could really be better to make it 2 poibts for a win, as this might be more conclusive. Or probably, doing it ELO style. Win = 1. Draw = 1/2. Compared to expected winning percentage.

Re: Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 19:40
by Aidann
Agree with all of you, guys.
:thumbs:

Re: Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 20:19
by greenbay
Browsing through the table, it seems to make much more sense now. Just recall i.e. Dortmund being ranked quite high earlier despite doing an expected home win. Now they are somewhere in the middle. While i.e. Dinamo, biggest upset of MD1, claim #1 now.

Re: Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 21:35
by og2002gr
Great work Aidann! :applause:

Re: Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

Posted: Tue Sep 22, 2015 21:23
by Aidann
These are the stats of the qualifying rounds:

Code: Select all

                  Expected Got Delta
Legia                 8,37 12  +3,63
Liberec               4,68  8  +3,32
Zilina                8,91 12  +3,09
K. Almaty             8,02 11  +2,98
Odd                   6,38  9  +2,62
Birkirkara            2,51  5  +2,49
AZ Alkmaar            3,72  6  +2,28
Din. Minsk            5,75  8  +2,25
Qarabag               5,89  8  +2,11
Zeljeznicar           5,89  8  +2,11
Newtown               1,91  4  +2,09
Gabala                6,92  9  +2,08
Midtjylland           6,94  9  +2,06
Skonto                2,95  5  +2,05
Belenenses            3,96  6  +2,04
Alashkert             2,06  4  +1,94
Jelgava               2,11  4  +1,89
Astra                 6,14  8  +1,86
Altach                3,21  5  +1,79
Milsami               3,24  5  +1,76
Partizan              7,24  9  +1,76
Spartaks              2,26  4  +1,74
FC Astana             6,31  8  +1,69
Vaduz                 8,31 10  +1,69
AC Wolfsberger        2,48  4  +1,52
Hibernians            0,55  2  +1,45
Pyunik Yerevan        4,55  6  +1,45
Rosenborg            11,61 13  +1,39
Shakhtar              4,61  6  +1,39
Monaco                4,62  6  +1,38
Koper                 3,64  5  +1,36
Malmo FF              5,74  7  +1,26
Hafnarfjordur         3,76  5  +1,24
Kalju                 1,78  3  +1,22
Manchester United     2,92  4  +1,08
Lincoln Red Imps      1,93  3  +1,07
Shkendija             0,93  2  +1,07
Trakai                3,94  5  +1,06
Dinamo Batumi         1,00  2  +1,00
BATE                  7,02  8  +0,98
Sutjeska              1,02  2  +0,98
Mladost Podgorica     3,05  4  +0,95
Olimpic Sarajevo      1,06  2  +0,94
Basel                 5,07  6  +0,93
Lech Poznan           7,12  8  +0,88
Vardar                1,12  2  +0,88
Dortmund              7,15  8  +0,85
Atromitos             3,18  4  +0,82
Crusaders             3,19  4  +0,81
HJK                   5,19  6  +0,81
TNS                   4,19  5  +0,81
St. Liege             5,23  6  +0,77
ASA Targu Mures       1,24  2  +0,76
Plzen                 5,24  6  +0,76
Rubin Kazan           5,24  6  +0,76
Lok. Zagreb           4,25  5  +0,75
Slask Wroclaw         4,27  5  +0,73
Rabotnicki            7,34  8  +0,66
NSI Runavik           1,35  2  +0,65
Vikingur              0,35  1  +0,65
Elfsborg              7,37  8  +0,63
Slovan Bratislava     8,37  9  +0,63
Bala                  1,38  2  +0,62
Cukaricki             4,43  5  +0,57
Laci                  1,44  2  +0,56
UC Dublin             1,48  2  +0,52
CSKA Moscow           4,49  5  +0,51
Flora                 1,49  2  +0,51
Inter Baku            5,50  6  +0,50
Fola                  0,51  1  +0,49
Lazio                 1,54  2  +0,46
Bordeaux              5,56  6  +0,44
Fenerbahce            4,58  5  +0,42
Trencin               1,58  2  +0,42
Celtic                8,60  9  +0,40
FC Copenhagen         5,61  6  +0,39
Rapid Vienna          3,62  4  +0,38
Sillamäe Kalev        0,63  1  +0,37
Dinamo Tbilisi        1,77  2  +0,23
Trnava                6,78  7  +0,22
Skenderbeu            5,79  6  +0,21
VPS                   0,79  1  +0,21
Beroe                 4,83  5  +0,17
Vojvodina             7,85  8  +0,15
Airbus                0,90  1  +0,10
Thun                  5,90  6  +0,10
Zorya                 3,91  4  +0,08
KR Reykjavik          2,92  3  +0,07
Krasnodar             5,92  6  +0,07
Omonia                6,94  7  +0,05
Vorskla Poltava       1,97  2  +0,03
Dacia Chisinau        3,98  4  +0,01
Sporting              2,05  2  -0,05
D. Zagreb             9,06  9  -0,06
Maribor               2,07  2  -0,07
Lahti                 1,08  1  -0,08
Niedercorn            1,11  1  -0,11
Rudar                 1,11  1  -0,11
Tskhinvali            1,11  1  -0,11
PAOK                  8,12  8  -0,12
Mlada Boleslav        2,15  2  -0,15
Levadia               2,18  2  -0,18
Molde                 6,18  6  -0,18
Brondby              10,19 10  -0,19
Juvenes/Dogana        0,20  0  -0,20
Charleroi             4,21  4  -0,21
Valencia              2,21  2  -0,21
Zalgiris              1,22  1  -0,22
Lusitanos             0,24  0  -0,24
College Europa        0,27  0  -0,27
Sant Julia            0,29  0  -0,29
Maccabi Tel Aviv      6,30  6  -0,30
La Fiorita            0,31  0  -0,31
Cherno More           1,33  1  -0,33
Inverness             1,33  1  -0,33
Jagiellonia           5,33  5  -0,33
Sparta Prague         4,33  4  -0,33
Aberdeen              6,38  6  -0,38
G.A. Eagles           1,41  1  -0,41
Kukesi                5,42  5  -0,42
Ajax                  4,45  4  -0,45
Dundalk               1,45  1  -0,45
Southampton           5,45  5  -0,45
Bayer Leverkusen      2,46  2  -0,46
Folgore               0,46  0  -0,46
Zrinjski              2,46  2  -0,46
Neftci Baku           2,52  2  -0,52
Kruoja                0,53  0  -0,53
Randers FC            5,53  5  -0,53
Panathinaikos         4,55  4  -0,55
Vikingur Reykjavik    1,56  1  -0,56
Apollon               8,57  8  -0,57
Goteborg              4,57  4  -0,57
Shirak Gyumri         2,57  2  -0,57
Ceadir Lunga          0,59  0  -0,59
Jablonec              3,59  3  -0,59
Sturm Graz            1,60  1  -0,60
Stjarnan              0,62  0  -0,62
Balzan Youths         0,63  0  -0,63
MTK Budapest          1,63  1  -0,63
Glentoran             0,64  0  -0,64
H. Beer Sheva         1,68  1  -0,68
Atlantas              0,69  0  -0,69
Glenavon              0,70  0  -0,70
Ordabasy              1,71  1  -0,71
Domzale               1,73  1  -0,73
Stromsgodset          6,73  6  -0,73
Zhodino               1,75  1  -0,75
St Johnstone          2,78  2  -0,78
Sampdoria             2,85  2  -0,85
Beitar Jerusalem      3,87  3  -0,87
Dila Gori             0,89  0  -0,89
Hajduk Split          9,89  9  -0,89
Cork City             1,93  1  -0,93
Dudelange             3,00  2  -1,00
Ulisses Yerevan       2,00  1  -1,00
FC Botosani           4,08  3  -1,08
AEK Larnaca           1,11  0  -1,11
Sheriff Tiraspol      2,14  1  -1,14
AIK                   8,15  7  -1,15
St Etienne            6,15  5  -1,15
Partizani             1,17  0  -1,17
B36 Torshavn          1,20  0  -1,20
Zurich                2,20  1  -1,20
Steaua Bucuresti      6,21  5  -1,21
Litex Lovech          3,22  2  -1,22
FK Sarajevo           1,25  0  -1,25
Salzburg              5,25  4  -1,25
Shakhtyor Soligorsk   5,25  4  -1,25
Vitesse               1,26  0  -1,26
Club Brugge           3,29  2  -1,29
Differdange           3,29  2  -1,29
HB Torshavn           1,29  0  -1,29
Videoton              5,32  4  -1,32
Trabzonspor           6,33  5  -1,33
Ath Bilbao            6,34  5  -1,34
Ventspils             1,37  0  -1,37
Renova                1,42  0  -1,42
Celje                 1,43  0  -1,43
Shamrock Rovers       4,52  3  -1,52
Shmona                1,55  0  -1,55
FC Santa Coloma       2,57  1  -1,57
Buducnost             2,63  1  -1,63
Rijeka                2,69  1  -1,69
APOEL                 6,75  5  -1,75
Linfield              3,83  2  -1,83
Debrecen              6,95  5  -1,95
SJK                   2,04  0  -2,04
Ferencvaros           5,13  3  -2,13
Aktobe                3,15  1  -2,15
St. Patricks          2,42  0  -2,42
Basaksehir            2,44  0  -2,44
FK Crvena zvezda      2,47  0  -2,47
Valletta              2,48  0  -2,48
Guimaraes             2,56  0  -2,56
West Ham              9,62  7  -2,62
Ludogorets            3,16  0  -3,16
Young Boys            3,46  0  -3,46
Per country:

Code: Select all

                 Expected Got Delta
Poland              25,09 30  +4,91
Slovakia            25,64 30  +4,36
Latvia               8,69 13  +4,31
Azerbaijan          20,83 25  +4,17
Wales                8,38 12  +3,62
Norway              30,90 34  +3,10
Czech Republic      19,99 23  +3,01
Estonia              6,08  8  +1,92
Austria             16,16 18  +1,84
Armenia             11,18 13  +1,82
Kazakhstan          19,19 21  +1,81
Denmark             28,27 30  +1,73
Liechtenstein        8,31 10  +1,69
Ukraine             10,49 12  +1,51
Russia              15,65 17  +1,35
Bosnia-Herzegovina  10,66 12  +1,34
Belarus             19,77 21  +1,23
Macedonia           10,81 12  +1,19
Malta                6,17  7  +0,83
Gibraltar            2,20  3  +0,80
France              16,33 17  +0,67
Germany              9,61 10  +0,39
Romania             17,67 18  +0,33
Georgia              4,77  5  +0,23
Montenegro           7,81  8  +0,19
Sweden              25,83 26  +0,17
Netherlands         10,84 11  +0,16
Greece              15,85 16  +0,15
Iceland              8,86  9  +0,14
Moldova              9,95 10  +0,05
Serbia              21,99 22  +0,01
Lithuania            6,38  6  -0,38
Italy                4,39  4  -0,39
Portugal             8,57  8  -0,57
Belgium             12,73 12  -0,73
Albania             13,82 13  -0,82
Slovenia             8,87  8  -0,87
San Marino           0,97  0  -0,97
Scotland            19,09 18  -1,09
Finland              9,10  8  -1,10
Faroe Islands        4,19  3  -1,19
Spain                8,55  7  -1,55
Croatia             25,89 24  -1,89
Luxembourg           7,91  6  -1,91
England             17,99 16  -1,99
Andorra              3,10  1  -2,10
Northern Ireland     8,36  6  -2,36
Turkey              13,35 10  -3,35
Cyprus              23,37 20  -3,37
Israel              13,40 10  -3,40
Switzerland         16,63 13  -3,63
Bulgaria            12,54  8  -4,54
Ireland             11,80  7  -4,80
Hungary             19,03 13  -6,03

Re: Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2015 07:10
by bermuda3eck
Great work.
The qualification overperformer shows what i seid that Polish teams get hard opponents and played well.
Hungary: crushes again and again.

Re: Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2015 22:01
by Lyonnais
As per this website, http://clubelo.com/UCL

the best peformances for MD1 were the following

+13.3 Zenit
+11.9 Dinamo Zagreb
+11.7 Basel
+11,2 Rapid Wien
+10.9 Juventus
etc.

Re: Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

Posted: Thu Sep 24, 2015 17:56
by Aidann
Lyonnais wrote:As per this website, http://clubelo.com/UCL

the best peformances for MD1 were the following

+13.3 Zenit
+11.9 Dinamo Zagreb
+11.7 Basel
+11,2 Rapid Wien
+10.9 Juventus
etc.
All of those 5 are among top six of what I posted so it seems fair. I really like that elo website, although their predictions are based on pure maths. Betting sites can use their experts to give a more precise value to each team odds. So I still believe Dinamo’s win was more unexpected than Zenit’s.

Re: Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

Posted: Thu Sep 24, 2015 18:06
by bugylibicska
Aidann wrote:
Lyonnais wrote:As per this website, http://clubelo.com/UCL

the best peformances for MD1 were the following

+13.3 Zenit
+11.9 Dinamo Zagreb
+11.7 Basel
+11,2 Rapid Wien
+10.9 Juventus
etc.
All of those 5 are among top six of what I posted so it seems fair. I really like that elo website, although their predictions are based on pure maths. Betting sites can use their experts to give a more precise value to each team odds. So I still believe Dinamo’s win was more unexpected than Zenit’s.
Zenit are unpredictable, able to beat stronger teams than Valencia. I rate Lokomotiv`s win in Lisbon vs. Sporting as a bigger upset, because they`re much less strong than Zenit. Arsenal on their day can beat (almost) any team, but quite a few times show total impotence and capable to lose vs. much weaker teams. Still, the biggest shock for me Dinamo beating Arsenal, then Lokomotiv`s win.
All times are UTC+02:00
Page 1 of 7

Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Limited