In Group J, finally some “normal” results, with Athletic Bilbao and Hertha Berlin winning for the first time.
This is the closest group, the distance between the first placed and the last placed is only 3 points.
Hertha Berlin will be eliminated in round 5 if they lose in Spain.
Athletic Bilbao won’t be eliminated in round 5 even if they lose at home against Hertha Berlin. They won’t be qualified in round 5 either, even if they win, they’ll just eliminate Hertha Berlin.
Zorya won’t be eliminated in round 5 either.
They’ll only be qualified if they win in Sweden and Hertha Berlin wins in Spain.
Ostersund will be already qualified in round 5, if and only if they defeat Zorya at home and there isn’t a winner in Athletic Bilbao vs. Hertha Berlin.
In Group K, Lazio already won the group and is the best team in EL so far!
They’re the “best team” because they are in a group with 3 “pot 4” teams, as og2002gr would say it. As soon as they start facing better opposition in the following rounds, we’ll see how good they really are.
Vitesse somehow is still alive despite having only 1 point.
They can still advance if… they win twice and there isn’t a winner in Nice vs. Zulte Waregem and Zulte Waregem can’t defeat Lazio and Vitesse’s win against Nice must also be 5-0 or better.
They’re in a great position, aren’t they?
The details of their round 4 defeat against Zulte Waregem are hilarious… They scored an own goal, then they were playing in numerical advantage after the 22nd minute with Madu’s red card, but only for 30 minutes because then they also had a red card… then their goalkeeper Pasveer conceded again in Zulte’s only shot on goal… This looks like an anecdote, with more things too like hitting the posts, disallowed goals… but this all actually happened!
Zulte is in a much better position, if they win in France in round 5 they’ll climb to the second spot, and then to keep it all they need is a home win in round 6 against Lazio.
Alternatively, they can draw in France and then wish that Nice will lose in Holland while they win the home match against Lazio.
Nice will qualify in round 5 if they win at home against Zulte Waregem (an opponent that they already defeated away 5-1 only a few weeks ago).
Finally, in Group L, Zenit is already qualified!
Vardar is already eliminated. And they’re only two simple defeats away of being the worst team in EL history: Shamrock Rovers got a 0-0-6 with a goal difference of -15, while Vardar is already 0-0-4 with a goal difference of -16.
So the fight for qualification here is really simple, Rosenborg is five points behind Real Sociedad, so to catch them, they must win twice, and hope that Real Sociedad doesn’t win against Zenit.
Since Zenit already lost a round 6 “meaningless” match against AZ Alkmaar last season, I wouldn’t expect them to help Rosenborg this time.
Plus, let’s say that Zenit gets a draw in Spain… Then Rosenborg’s win against Real Sociedad in round 6 must be 5-0 or better, or they’ll finish leveled on points but with worse head-to-head.
Even if Rosenborg can’t finish top 2, they should try to get as many points as they can, they never got more than 6 in one season, let’s see if this time they can get at least 7 (all they have to do is defeating Vardar again).