Search found 279 matches

by elkjiaer is back
Wed Sep 01, 2021 18:54
Forum: UEFA club coefficients and rankings
Topic: Battles for important ranking positions 2021-2022
Replies: 1131
Views: 133405

Re: Battles for important ranking positions 2021-2022

It seems you forgot to add bonus points for finishing first or second in EL and ECL groups. Thanks (and to Diouf as well). Si I presume that a EL Group Winner gets 5 bonus points (4 as a group winner + 1 for reaching EL R16). Is that correct? It becomes a bit complicated ... so based on this ...
by elkjiaer is back
Wed Sep 01, 2021 11:22
Forum: UEFA club coefficients and rankings
Topic: Schedule Match Sequence
Replies: 31
Views: 11089

Re: Schedule Match Sequence

In other words: Given 4 teams where 1>2>3>4, what is the best allocation of teams into calendar order A, B, C, D to ensure maximum excitment of the competition? If I were to do it, I'd probably use ClubElo & simulate each group independently using the Monte Carlo method to find the mean number of ...
by elkjiaer is back
Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:16
Forum: UEFA club coefficients and rankings
Topic: Schedule Match Sequence
Replies: 31
Views: 11089

Re: Schedule Match Sequence

As someone else wrote here on the blog the new fixture system is the following: A) H A H A H A B) H A A H H A C) A H H A A H D) A H A H A H Note that A-D and B-C are symmetrical (when one plays home the other plays always away and vice versa). Someone was saying that the calendar order is drawn at ...
by elkjiaer is back
Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:17
Forum: European Club football
Topic: CL 2021-22 1st and 2nd qualifying rounds
Replies: 1050
Views: 62080

Re: CL 2021-22 1st and 2nd qualifying rounds

I was trying to understand the criteria used by UEFA to form the subgroups for the Qualifying Rounds, but I always fail to find the logic behind them For example, in the CL-Q2: 2nd Qualifying Round for Champions Seeded and Unseeded team were split into 3 groups of 3, 3 and 4 teams So the first ...
by elkjiaer is back
Tue Aug 03, 2021 12:06
Forum: UEFA club coefficients and rankings
Topic: UEFA CCC decides to scrap away goals rule
Replies: 170
Views: 25151

Re: UEFA CCC decides to scrap away goals rule

I have compared all qualifying matches played in the current season so far with those for 5 season from 2015/2016 to 2019/2020 (last season only a few matches were played as two legged ties) This season (21/22): Two legged ties played: 116 extra time: 17 (14.7%) penalties: 8 (47% of those going into ...
by elkjiaer is back
Thu Feb 25, 2021 23:14
Forum: European Club football
Topic: 2020/21 EL Round of 32
Replies: 682
Views: 41350

Re: 2020/21 EL Round of 32

When was it last time without German teams in the round of 16 in the Europa League ?
by elkjiaer is back
Thu Feb 25, 2021 23:12
Forum: European Club football
Topic: 2020/21 EL Round of 32
Replies: 682
Views: 41350

Re: 2020/21 EL Round of 32

When was it last time without German teams in the round of 16 in the Europa League ?
by elkjiaer is back
Thu Feb 25, 2021 08:45
Forum: European Club football
Topic: 2020/21 CL Round of 16
Replies: 416
Views: 27028

Re: 2020/21 CL Round of 16

7 "away" wins for the 1st placed teams - and the only 2nd placed team to win was quite unexpectedly Porto. If I am not wrong it has never happened before. Surely the decreased home field advantage with empty stadiums and a few matches played on neutral ground played a big role into this Referees ...
by elkjiaer is back
Fri Feb 19, 2021 09:48
Forum: European Club football
Topic: 2020/21 CL Round of 16
Replies: 416
Views: 27028

Re: 2020/21 CL Round of 16

Hi , I am sorry you took it personal, I have nothing against Porto at all, on the contrary it is my favorite portoguese team. And I remember the match you mentioned and you also have a valid point. Regarding number of fouls and yellow cards: this depends on the quantity of fouls , but also on the ...
by elkjiaer is back
Fri Feb 19, 2021 09:05
Forum: European Club football
Topic: 2020/21 CL Round of 16
Replies: 416
Views: 27028

Re: 2020/21 CL Round of 16

Last but not the least, the referee has been terrible. 14 fouls conceded by both teams, 4 yellow for Juve and 0 for Porto (Danilo misses the return match). Just Otavio made 5 fouls in the first half only and never got booked and in fact he was subsituted in the second half. Not awarding the penalty ...
by elkjiaer is back
Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:48
Forum: UEFA club coefficients and rankings
Topic: Herd wisdom exists?
Replies: 190
Views: 27038

Re: Herd wisdom exists?

In case you might be interested, I am running a competition on Twitter comparing prediction accuracy of 7 different methods, including Pinnacle Opening and Closing odds, Clubelo, Euroclubindex, 538, Infogol (expected goals) and elofootball You can see the final results here: https://twitter.com ...
by elkjiaer is back
Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:47
Forum: UEFA club coefficients and rankings
Topic: Herd wisdom exists?
Replies: 190
Views: 27038

Re: Herd wisdom exists?

In case you might be interested, I am running a competition on Twitter comparing prediction accuracy of 7 different methods, including Pinnacle Opening and Closing odds, Clubelo, Euroclubindex, 538, Infogol (expected goals) and elofootball You can see the final results here: https://twitter.com ...
by elkjiaer is back
Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:42
Forum: European Club football
Topic: 2020/21 CL Round of 16
Replies: 416
Views: 27028

Re: 2020/21 CL Round of 16

Poor performance by Juventus, also bad match gor sevilla (especially 1st half). Good match for Dortmund and very good for Porto which didn't deserved to suffer one goal, being just one goal from being sent off. I agree regarding the poor performance, but we all know how big role luck plays in those ...
by elkjiaer is back
Fri Dec 11, 2020 09:59
Forum: UEFA club coefficients and rankings
Topic: Herd wisdom exists?
Replies: 190
Views: 27038

Re: Herd wisdom exists?

In case you might be interested, I am running a competition on Twitter comparing prediction accuracy of 7 different methods, including Pinnacle Opening and Closing odds, Clubelo, Euroclubindex, 538, Infogol (expected goals) and elofootball You can see the final results here: https://twitter.com ...
by elkjiaer is back
Tue Nov 10, 2020 00:11
Forum: UEFA club coefficients and rankings
Topic: Big 4 or Big 3
Replies: 205
Views: 22708

Re: Big 4 or Big 3

I have just posted on Twitter my results of comparing 7 different methods with their respective odds for UCL and UEL group stage including bookmaker odds clubelo and many others
Here is the link :
https://twitter.com/lorenzo_carli83/sta ... 46821?s=21
Let me know if you have any comment