2023/24 Conference League quarter-finals, semi-finals and final

[rpo.castro]

Favorites of each tie according to Opta :

Aston Villa - 59.4%
Lille - 40.6%

Olympiacos - 30.3%
Fenerbahçe - 69.7%

Viktoria Plzeň - 29.8%
Fiorentina - 70.2%

Club Brugge - 67.7%
PAOK - 32.4%

So, according to Opta Brugge, Fiorentina and Fener are more favored to go through than Villa?

They may want to re-adjust their prediction algorithm.

I don't have one.
But just based on my feeling and my current team strength estimates I give PAOK about 20% to be in the final.

Especially the predictions for Fiorentina look wrong to me.

Of course the chances of those teams moving ahead are much higher than Aston Villa because Aston Villa got the strongest team they could, so their task is much harder than Fiorentina, Brugge or Fenner.

[Overgame]

Favorites of each tie according to Opta :

Aston Villa - 59.4%
Lille - 40.6%

Olympiacos - 30.3%
Fenerbahçe - 69.7%

Viktoria Plzeň - 29.8%
Fiorentina - 70.2%

Club Brugge - 67.7%
PAOK - 32.4%

So, according to Opta Brugge, Fiorentina and Fener are more favored to go through than Villa?

They may want to re-adjust their prediction algorithm.

I don't have one.
But just based on my feeling and my current team strength estimates I give PAOK about 20% to be in the final.

Especially the predictions for Fiorentina look wrong to me.

What is surprising for Villa?
Imagine 2 ties:
City vs Real Madrid
Brugge vs Inter Club d'Escaldes

Would you be surprised if Brugge has a better chance to progress then City/Real?


Now back to Opta. I don't know hat moel they're using, I don't reay care (percentage are meaningless unless you're betting), but looking at a random betting site in Belgium:
Fenerbahce 1.40 - Olympiakos Piraeus 2.80 -> 66.7% - 33.3%
AC Fiorentina 1.25 - FC Viktoria Plzen 3.75 -> 75% - 25%
Club Brugge 1.60 - PAOK Thessaloniki 2.20 -> 57.9% - 42.1%
Aston Villa 1.50 - Lille OSC 2.40 -> 63.5% - 38.5%


The only big disagreement is Brugge. If somewhere in their model they're using the UEFA coefficients, Brugge with the highest one "goes up" and Villa with the lowest one "goes down".

[naaba]

Favorites of each tie according to Opta :

Aston Villa - 59.4%
Lille - 40.6%

Olympiacos - 30.3%
Fenerbahçe - 69.7%

Viktoria Plzeň - 29.8%
Fiorentina - 70.2%

Club Brugge - 67.7%
PAOK - 32.4%

So, according to Opta Brugge, Fiorentina and Fener are more favored to go through than Villa?

They may want to re-adjust their prediction algorithm.

I don't have one.
But just based on my feeling and my current team strength estimates I give PAOK about 20% to be in the final.

Especially the predictions for Fiorentina look wrong to me.

What ?

Lille is a though draw compared to Olympiacos, Viktoria Plzen or PAOK so of course others (Fenerbahçe, Fiorentina, Brugge) are given more chances to go through. For this round.

Nonetheless Aston Villa is the favorite to win it all, and Fiorentina is second because A) Italian club B) last year finalist and C) can't meet Aston Villa until final

[emortal]

Everyone's Opta's lawyer all of a sudden.

I mean none of the above arguments make sense to me.

• Betting odds - irrelevant to the discussion, unless opta is basing their predictions on that
• Fiorentina is an Italian club - so what, would anyone say the same for Sassuolo?
  Although I can imagine how this would potentially skew the Opta predictions, if they are using SerieA stats.
• Fiorentina reached the final last year - and AZ/Basel reached the semifinal last year, where are they now?
• Fiorentina won't meet Villa till the final - neither will Brugge/PAOK/Plzen
• Lille is somehow considered a super-team - yeah, they beat Klaksvík, Bratislava and Graz. Give them the trophy already!

Now, in all seriousness.
Here are the team and player stats of the competition so far, according to Opta:
https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/11/uefa- ... tats-opta/

Now, call me weird, but when I look at Opta predictions I expect them to be based on their own stats.
And I just don't see how you go from those to the predictions.

[rpo.castro]

Everyone's Opta's lawyer all of a sudden.

I mean none of the above arguments make sense to me.

• Betting odds - irrelevant to the discussion, unless opta is basing their predictions on that
• Fiorentina is an Italian club - so what, would anyone say the same for Sassuolo?
  Although I can imagine how this would potentially skew the Opta predictions, if they are using SerieA stats.
• Fiorentina reached the final last year - and AZ/Basel reached the semifinal last year, where are they now?
• Fiorentina won't meet Villa till the final - neither will Brugge/PAOK/Plzen
• Lille is somehow considered a super-team - yeah, they beat Klaksvík, Bratislava and Graz. Give them the trophy already!

Now, in all seriousness.
Here are the team and player stats of the competition so far, according to Opta:
https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/11/uefa- ... tats-opta/

Now, call me weird, but when I look at Opta predictions I expect them to be based on their own stats.
And I just don't see how you go from those to the predictions.

Lille isn't a super team nor isn't Aston Villa or Fiorentina. There aren't super teams in conference league. Lille are just better then most teams qualified for QF. If they beat Aston Villa they are heavy favourites to be in the final and winning it.

[emortal]

Lille isn't a super team nor isn't Aston Villa or Fiorentina. There aren't super teams in conference league. Lille are just better then most teams qualified for QF. If they beat Aston Villa they are heavy favourites to be in the final and winning it.

Ok, that's your opinion and I respect that.

But when Opta plays analyst and predict certain percentages they'd better back them up somehow.
And I believe I know where they get those bizarre odds from.

They have their own ranking, which has an ELO logic:
https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/01/power ... ub-ranked/

They seem to underestimate lower leagues and overestimate the French league for some reason.
To the point it gets ridiculous, like Brest or Nice being ranked above Brugge.
And Strasbourg, which is fighting against relegation, ranked above Plzen and PAOK.

[emortal]

So, here are my odds, based purely on instinct and the good ol' eye test.

Aston Villa - 70%
Lille - 30%

Olympiacos - 40%
Fenerbahçe - 60%

Viktoria Plzeň - 35%
Fiorentina - 65%

Club Brugge - 50%
PAOK - 50%

[Korgutt]

What is the odds for Greece passing
1. Denmark?
2. Norway?

[bugylibicska]

What is the odds for Greece passing
1. Denmark?
2. Norway?

Greece need 10 points to pass Denmark and 11 points to pass Norway. A bit more than 8% chance to finish 15th and even less than 8% to finish 14th.

[Gorandinho]

Club Brugge have sacked Ronny Deila

[bugylibicska]

Goalless at the half in Plzen. Fiorentina have the lion share of possession, but couldn't create any serious chance. Plzen look comfortable and had the only chance worth wile mentioning.

[Greyn]

Fenerbahce are really disappointing. Olympiacos players show much more determination and want to win much more. At least this is my impression.

[Greyn]

Compilation of mistakes in defense by Fenerbahce and should be 3-0 Olympiacos already. Fenerbahce really need to wake up quickly.

[Tazmania]

Fiorentina far too imprecise in attack after an hour means Plzen have comfortably kept the score blank.

If Plzen draw Czechia will equal Scotland in the 5-year ranking in the all-important 10th place!

[Greyn]

3-0 Olympiacos! It was coming. Another mistake in a build up and this time Olympiacos take advantage of it. Too easy for Olympiacos, way too easy.