2018 Russia qualifying competitions

World Cup 2026, Euro 2028, etc.
Vickzq
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Post by Vickzq »

Sao wrote:Based on what I said that feeling is off the mark. You could have come away from my posts feeling: I very much prefer the lesser evil, not perfection but the better tool for the job, the apt one, the better reflection of comparative strengths, UEFA's Oct. 2015 NT coefficient ranking, the most plausible alternative to the one that was actually used for seeding, the better option...
I do NOT doubt you understand the rankings very well - and it is obvious you see more benefit in UEFA ranking. It's just that FIFA doesn't... and the point of "what region would use what ranking" might be a situation they want to prevent by using the same ranking for all kinds of draws. That's all I wrote... although the text was much longer.
Sao wrote: Also, would you mind a fully random draw? Would it matter if Germany, Brazil, Spain and France end up in one group while another group might include Panama, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Tunisia. The World Cup could be terribly unbalanced without the desire for a better reflection of comparative strengths. For the (European) qualifiers there were two options and if it were up to me I'd pick the better one. Apropos, for the final draw of EURO2020 is it expected that UEFA's coefficient ranking will be used or will it also be the NL overall ranking? AFAIK UEFA has been silent.
You mean a random world cup group stage draw... I would say that a completely open draw would be damaging for the tournament, not only FIFA would pay for it, also fans would enjoy it less (my opinion).
I have to say that now, at the world cup, the only evident 'doubtfully lower' ranking concerns Spain. Because of the specific rules for the draw the europeans in pot #2 (like Spain) have a rather good chance to get decent groups. That's why I don't see much of a scandalous situation.
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nogomet
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Post by nogomet »

Sao wrote:Apropos, for the final draw of EURO2020 is it expected that UEFA's coefficient ranking will be used or will it also be the NL overall ranking? AFAIK UEFA has been silent.
I think they will use the coefficient ranking for the final tournament. It makes little sense to base the EURO2020 seedings on the Nations League results from the fall of 2018 and completely disregard all the matches played during 2019 in EURO qualifiers. That would mean that you cannot improve your ranking regardless of your performance during the qualifiers and are stuck in a pot based on your performance from a year ago.
Sao
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Post by Sao »

nogomet wrote:
Sao wrote:Apropos, for the final draw of EURO2020 is it expected that UEFA's coefficient ranking will be used or will it also be the NL overall ranking? AFAIK UEFA has been silent.
I think they will use the coefficient ranking for the final tournament. It makes little sense to base the EURO2020 seedings on the Nations League results from the fall of 2018 and completely disregard all the matches played during 2019 in EURO qualifiers. That would mean that you cannot improve your ranking regardless of your performance during the qualifiers and are stuck in a pot based on your performance from a year ago.
Agreed, just a shame UEFA didn't divulge that bit of info too (unless I missed it). So UEFA's coefficient ranking will now be used once every 4 years and if the UNL is replaced by a global tournament I'd expect all teams will again be seeded for the inaugural edition (but in this case based on FIFA's rankings). I pray they'll be the better option by then.
Sao
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Post by Sao »

@Vickzq: I had my moan and I'm quite satisfied now. Thanks.

I know it's a bit pedantic but Conmebol has no seeding (definitely not based on FIFA's rankings). Also, the 1st and 3rd round of OFC qualification are at odds with a uniform approach. "For sporting reasons" 3 teams ranked below Samoa and 2 in Tonga's case didn't start in the 1st round of the most recent qualifiers, while Samoa and Tonga did, and for the 3rd round seeding was based on the results of the 2016 OFC Nations Cup. Well done OFC. The publishing date of the rankings that are used can differ quite a bit as well, e.g. in Concacaf seeding for the first round was based on the August 2014 rankings, and can have a distorting impact, e.g. the July 2015 rankings had some results of WC2014 in a higher yielding timeframe.

Maybe we'll see more harmonisation after the FIFA council has discussed the review of international competitions at their meeting in March. Qualifying competitions aren't really that alike, the (global) NL is coming, other competitions will be binned or expanded, the future of the match calendar might be headed towards a winter/summer bloc and who knows FIFA could also be planning to add a bit of uniformity.
Sao
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Post by Sao »

Ed wrote:Another simple method to compare the confederation strengths is to look at the confederation weighting used in the FIFA-ranking. That weighting is determined over all inter-confederational matches at the last 3 world cups. A confederation receives 1 point for a won match and a half point for each drawn match. Intra-confederational matches do not count.
The average number of points per interconfederational match (over the world cups of 2014, 2010 and 2006):
CONMEBOL 0,66
UEFA 0,65
CONCACAF 0,34
CAF 0,29
AFC 0,24
OFC 0,17

With a somewhat complex formula (take the fourth root of the ratio of a confederations average and the maximum average i.e. 0,66) and applying a minimum-threshold of 0,85, this leads to the well known confederation weights for the FIFA-ranking:
CONMEBOL 1,0000 => 1,00
UEFA 0,9947 => 0,99
CONCACAF 0,8468 => 0,85
CAF 0,8131 => 0,85
AFC 0,7786 => 0,85
OFC 0,7078 => 0,85
Ed, it's purely academic, but then again that's true for a lot that's written on these boards, yet do you know what the confederation weights for the FIFA-ranking (old style) would be?

I'd expect UEFA to go top again and CONMEBOL to drop.
Ed
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Post by Ed »

Sao, I've calculated the following confederation coefficients. There were a lot of intra-confederational matches for UEFA-teams and these do not count for this calculation. What's worse: also the results from WC06 got dropped and that was a very strong year for UEFA. So their three-WC average dropped from 0,65 to 0,62. CONMEBOL's average stayed the same. So, contra-intuitively, UEFA lost ground on CONMEBOL.
In the end (after rounding) only CONCACAF grows from 0,85 to 0,86. The rest would have stayed the same.

Code: Select all

confederation  before WC18        WC18   new avg    after WC18    rounded
UEFA                0,9947        0,68      0,62        0,9865       0,99
CONMEBOL            1,0000        0,60      0,66        1,0000       1,00
CAF                 0,8131        0,27      0,29        0,8120       0,85
CONCACAF            0,8468        0,25      0,36        0,8609       0.86
AFC                 0,7786        0,34      0,28        0,8046       0.85
OFC                 0,7078        0,00      0,17        0,7098       0,85
Sao
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Post by Sao »

Thanks Ed.
Ed wrote:So, contra-intuitively, UEFA lost ground on CONMEBOL.
Yep, I found that quite peculiar before.
In the KO phase UEFA teams even had slightly better results than in 2006 and it would be hard to argue UEFA teams did poorly in 2018. In the group phase you could get a few "garbage" results, e.g. teams fielding a B team when already through, playing for a draw, etc., while valueing KO games/deep runs the same as group games seems to result in the counter-intuitive confederation weighting.
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seso
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Post by seso »

seso wrote: Mon Sep 04, 2017 05:05 ...Fantastic save by Thibaut Courtois at 17'. Very nice goals by Jan Vertonghen, Zeca and (24-year-old...) Romelu Lukaku.
If Lukaku continues like that, by the time he retires, he will have about 1000 apps for the clubs he has played for and 200 apps for Belgium...
He's on his way! He already has about 600 apps for the clubs he has played and 116 apps for Belgium! :grin1:
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