fabiomh wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2024 14:07
LEVERKUSEN WILL LIKELY MEET 2 ITALIAN TEAMS IN POT1/POT2 (Inter, Juve, Atalanta, Milan).

In principles, each team has probability 25% (2/8) to meet any team of the same pot, and probability 22% (2/9) to meet any team of other pots.

This probability can change depending on the country constraints (weak constraints to be honest).

For example Leverkusen (pot 2) cannot meet the three German teams of Pot 1, so their opponents need to be choosen between the other six teams (2 Eng, 2 Esp, 1 Ita, 1 Fra), and the related probability increases.

This impact one each other with the fact that there are 3 Italians in the Pot2, so Inter (Pot1) can choose 2 out of 6 teams of Pot2 (including Leverkusen). So probability of Inter-Leverkusen increases furthermore.

In addition any of the three Italians of Pot2 cannot meet the other two, they will have their two opponents between the other 6 teams (including Leverkusen); so their probability to meet Leverkusen increase again.

Definitively probability Leverkusen will meet one or two Italian teams among Inter, Milan, Juve, Atalanta (Pot1 + Pot2) is really high.

Three out of 4 should be avoided by the weak constraints, but it cannot be excluded.

The most likely combination is metting two Italians.

Most likely Leverkusen opponents:

Pot1: Inter (39%), PSG (38%), Real M., Barca (30%), ManCity, Liverpool (29%), German derby low probability

Pot2: Atalanta, Juventus, Milan (36% each - should be max two of them), Brugge 28%, ...