Battle for important ranking positions 2024-25

[BurningStorm]

Two "bad" seasons when they finished third were last season and covid season 2020-21.

In the covid season they really had a bad year, but it didn't have much to do with the break and covid: Liverpool was already out against Atletico before the break in R16, Tottenham was already out against Leipzig before the break in R16, Chelsea already lost the first leg at home 0-3 to Bayern before the break (2nd leg after the break was 4-1). So only ManCity really went out after the long break under these unusual circumstances in a single game against Lyon. You probably didn't want to say that this played a role and is an excuse, I just wanted to add it. It was an unusual low performance season by them in the CL.

[babaluj1]

Inflating English clubs again. Last year they had a 96% chance for the Top 2 places according to the Country coefficient, so they finished third and with a big gap behind the leaders. They won only 17,375 coefficients, and now they should win 26,428 coefficients, almost 4,000 more than Italy and 5,000 more than Germany. and Portugal. Sweet dream , again totally unrealistic predictions. I haven't studied the draw in detail, but as far as the CL is concerned, both the Italians and the Germans will be more successful. I see only City and Arsenal in the Top 8, Liverpool from 9-16. places, and Aston Villa even lower. Both Germans and Italians will have more clubs in the Top 8, or Top 16.

And before last season which was an exception how many times in a row England finished in the top-2 in country coefficient ranking? And while I agree that sometimes English clubs are overrated, you see it also in bookies odds overall its still by far the strongest league. I expect at least 3 English clubs to finish top-8 may be even all 4, Aston Villa the weakest of them has a rather soft draw.

The English are bet the most, the most money is paid on the victories of English clubs, this is the main reason why bookmakers regularly overestimate the chances of English clubs. The same applies to the English national team.
English clubs were very bad last year, the last two places in CL-GS, especially painful was the last place of Manchester United in the group with Copenhagen and Galatasaray. All English clubs were eliminated in the quarter-finals from clubs from the Top 4 leagues, only Aston Villa made it to the semi-finals against Lille in CO. English clubs are the richest, but that does not mean they are the best. According to clubelo, the difference in quality between the Top 4 leagues is minimal, from 1750 England to 1700 Spain, another bad season for England and they will fall from first place according to clubelo rating.

[mitsaras]

Can anyone post the opta predictions about country Ranking?
I am searching but I can not find anything about it.

[babaluj1]

Can anyone post the opta predictions about country Ranking?
I am searching but I can not find anything about it.

Here are easiest and hardest draws in CL by Opta https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/08/champ ... roup-stage

The easiest draws have Celtic,Bayern,Dortmund,Barca and Aston Villa. The hardest draws have PSG,Sparta,Liverpool,Feyenord and Lille.
I didnt find opta predictios for CL.

[mitsaras]

I am interested in any Country Ranking predictions...

Anything else is off topic

[Park]

Country ranking predictions
https://x.com/NilsMackay/status/1830901 ... 0771?s=19
https://x.com/NilsMackay/status/1830936 ... 54951?s=19

[mitsaras]

Country ranking predictions
https://x.com/NilsMackay/status/1830901 ... 0771?s=19
https://x.com/NilsMackay/status/1830936 ... 54951?s=19

Thank you very much!
Despite I should search for "NilsMackay" because the links didn't work for me.

[elkjiaer is back]

I made a comparison of the ranking of different teams In all 3 competitions by looking at different methods :
https://x.com/lorenzo_carli83/status/1 ... ozHStQZspA
https://x.com/lorenzo_carli83/status/1 ... ozHStQZspA
https://x.com/lorenzo_carli83/status/1 ... ozHStQZspA

Opta is doing an ok job compared to Odds but definitely over / underestimating teams from specific countries ( look at Portoguese or Czech teams
For example )

[amirbachar]

I made a comparison of the ranking of different teams In all 3 competitions by looking at different methods :
https://x.com/lorenzo_carli83/status/1 ... ozHStQZspA
https://x.com/lorenzo_carli83/status/1 ... ozHStQZspA
https://x.com/lorenzo_carli83/status/1 ... ozHStQZspA

Opta is doing an ok job compared to Odds but definitely over / underestimating teams from specific countries ( look at Portoguese or Czech teams
For example )

Thanks!

[babaluj1]

The fight for the 33rd place will be very uncertain, as many as 7 countries are fighting for 2 places in the Top 33.

32.KOS 12.041 4
33.IRL 12.000 1/ 4
---------------------------------------------------
34.ARM 11.500 1/ 4
35.ICL 11.333 1/ 4
36.LAT11.250 1/ 4
37.FIN 11.000 1/ 4
38.FAR 10.750 4
39.BIH 10.250 1/ 4
40.KAZ 10.125 1/ 4

Differences in coefficients are minimal below 2,000 coefficients. Irish Shamrock Rovers need a win or two, while Bosnian Borac or Kazakh Astana must pass the League stage if they want to reach the Top 33.

[Stadion]

The fight for the 33rd place will be very uncertain, as many as 7 countries are fighting for 2 places in the Top 33.

32.KOS 12.041 4
33.IRL 12.000 1/ 4
---------------------------------------------------
34.ARM 11.500 1/ 4
35.ICL 11.333 1/ 4
36.LAT11.250 1/ 4
37.FIN 11.000 1/ 4
38.FAR 10.750 4
39.BIH 10.250 1/ 4
40.KAZ 10.125 1/ 4

Differences in coefficients are minimal below 2,000 coefficients. Irish Shamrock Rovers need a win or two, while Bosnian Borac or Kazakh Astana must pass the League stage if they want to reach the Top 33.

You could probably argue that realistically Moldova is more involved in this battle than Faroe Islands. Although neither will likely have anything to do with it. Kosovo is also extremely unlikely to be involved here.

[babaluj1]

In the fight for the Top 2 places according to the Country coefficient 2024/25, the Czech Republic and Portugal are currently in the lead, having played a great qualification. In addition, Sparta and Sporting achieved victories in the first matchday of the CL.
The current order of favorites, which are the Top 10 countries:

CZE 4/5 5,700
POR 5/5 5,000
-------------------------
GER 8/8 4,500
ITA 8/8 4.375
ENG 7/7 4.285
FRA 6/7 4.214
ESP 7/7 4,000
BEL 5/5 3,400
NET 5/6 3,000
TUR 4/5 2,500

Most of the clubs from these countries will play tomorrow and the situation will be much clearer.

[vkgz]

In the fight for the Top 2 places according to the Country coefficient 2024/25, the Czech Republic and Portugal are currently in the lead, having played a great qualification. In addition, Sparta and Sporting achieved victories in the first matchday of the CL.
The current order of favorites, which are the Top 10 countries:

CZE 4/5 5,700
POR 5/5 5,000
-------------------------
GER 8/8 4,500
ITA 8/8 4.375
ENG 7/7 4.285
FRA 6/7 4.214
ESP 7/7 4,000
BEL 5/5 3,400
NET 5/6 3,000
TUR 4/5 2,500

Most of the clubs from these countries will play tomorrow and the situation will be much clearer.

I think everyone can guess that the 2 countries will be Germany, Italy, England or Spain.

[babaluj1]

In the fight for the Top 2 places according to the Country coefficient 2024/25, the Czech Republic and Portugal are currently in the lead, having played a great qualification. In addition, Sparta and Sporting achieved victories in the first matchday of the CL.
The current order of favorites, which are the Top 10 countries:

CZE 4/5 5,700
POR 5/5 5,000
-------------------------
GER 8/8 4,500
ITA 8/8 4.375
ENG 7/7 4.285
FRA 6/7 4.214
ESP 7/7 4,000
BEL 5/5 3,400
NET 5/6 3,000
TUR 4/5 2,500

Most of the clubs from these countries will play tomorrow and the situation will be much clearer.

I think everyone can guess that the 2 countries will be Germany, Italy, England or Spain.

The top 4 countries are the main favorites, but all the others also have some chances as long as they are complete or lack only one club. The Netherlands surprisingly took second place in 2021/22, so no one should be written off too early. Portugal has a good chance to be at the very top, and in the fight for Top 2 this season.

[vkgz]

In the fight for the Top 2 places according to the Country coefficient 2024/25, the Czech Republic and Portugal are currently in the lead, having played a great qualification. In addition, Sparta and Sporting achieved victories in the first matchday of the CL.
The current order of favorites, which are the Top 10 countries:

CZE 4/5 5,700
POR 5/5 5,000
-------------------------
GER 8/8 4,500
ITA 8/8 4.375
ENG 7/7 4.285
FRA 6/7 4.214
ESP 7/7 4,000
BEL 5/5 3,400
NET 5/6 3,000
TUR 4/5 2,500

Most of the clubs from these countries will play tomorrow and the situation will be much clearer.

I think everyone can guess that the 2 countries will be Germany, Italy, England or Spain.

The top 4 countries are the main favorites, but all the others also have some chances as long as they are complete or lack only one club. The Netherlands surprisingly took second place in 2021/22, so no one should be written off too early. Portugal has a good chance to be at the very top, and in the fight for Top 2 this season.

To achieve this, you need to have at least 2 very good teams participating in the Europa League and the Conference League. I think it will be difficult but maybe Portugal can do it.