2024/25 UEFA Champions League League Phase

[Lorric]

UEFA has lowered the price caps for away fans. CL €60, Europa €40, ECL €20. Good to see the many years of campaigning by the likes of Football Supporters Europe bearing fruit, and UEFA actually doing something that benefits fans for a change.

It goes down again next year, CL €50, Europa €35, ECL stays at €20.

[SimonB]

UEFA has lowered the price caps for away fans. CL €60, Europa €40, ECL €20. Good to see the many years of campaigning by the likes of Football Supporters Europe bearing fruit, and UEFA actually doing something that benefits fans for a change.

It goes down again next year, CL €50, Europa €35, ECL stays at €20.

But I also hear this morning that Aston Villa are charging home fans GBP85, a little above EUR100 for their 4 home matches this season, tickets are availably for GBP70 for season ticket holders. Fans are reportedly disappointed as this represents about a 55% uplift on the prices for domestic matches.

[Lyonnais]

I modestly ran my quick simulation based on ELO-ratings.

For final standing, I have

Man City
Bayern
Real Madrid
Arsenal
Inter
Dortmund
Barcelona
Leverkusen
---------------
Atalanta
Milan
Atletico
Liverpool
Stuttgart
Leipzig
Paris SG
Girona
---
PSV
Juventus
Sporting
Aston Villa
Monaco
Bologna
Celtic
Benfica
---------------
Lille
Feyenoord
Brest
Club Brugge
Sparta Praha
Salzburg
Dinamo Zagreb
Sturm Graz
Young Boys
Shakhtar
Crvena zvezda
Slovan Bratislava

So compared to the current ELO-ratings, we can see some effects of the draw
Dortmund in the top 8 at the expense of Liverpool
Celtic in the play-offs at the expense of Lille

[Metallica1989]

It is interesting to follow how Shakhtar, after the departure of all the legionnaires on 24.02.22 (195.60 mln), is slowly starting to return its potential, using the example of the transfermarket, I decided to compare the cost of the team before the start of the Champions League of the seasons 22/23 23/24 24/25

01.09.22 - 73.35 mln
01.09.23 - 98.90 mln
01.09.24 - 159.60 mln
01.09.25 - 200 ?

This does not mean that the result this season will be better, it is just an indicator that the potential of the squad has grown, which increases the likelihood that the result can be better. And all this is happening during a total war, fantastic

[Korgutt]

. I found it out by myself.

[anty1975]

It is interesting to follow how Shakhtar, after the departure of all the legionnaires on 24.02.22 (195.60 mln), is slowly starting to return its potential, using the example of the transfermarket, I decided to compare the cost of the team before the start of the Champions League of the seasons 22/23 23/24 24/25

01.09.22 - 73.35 mln
01.09.23 - 98.90 mln
01.09.24 - 159.60 mln
01.09.25 - 200 ?

This does not mean that the result this season will be better, it is just an indicator that the potential of the squad has grown, which increases the likelihood that the result can be better. And all this is happening during a total war, fantastic

Surprised they didn't sell Sudakov this window...

[fabiomh]

I found this on twitter:



https://x.com/fmeetsdata

According to this:

17 points should be enough to finish top 8 (>99.7%)

11 points should be enough to finish top 24 (>99.9%)


He has similar simulations for EL and Conference League.

I tried to perform a simulation as well.

I run a Monte-Carlo simulation on 2,000 runs, for all the three Cups.
The results and the probabilty of each single match are based on the current ELO, partially corrected by the current bookies odds.

Of course it is not a 100% accurate prediction, ELO expecially at the beginning of the season cannot take into account the players transfer and the coach/squad change; but it was the best I could do.

Results are more or less the same as above:
8th place: 17 pts are enough for sure
16 pts might be enough with probability around 85%
15 pts might be enough in 45% of cases

24th place: 11 pts are enough for sure
10 pts are enough in 95% of cases
9 pts might be enough with probability 55%

Single teams and impact from fixtures:
PSG, despite their ELO ranking is better, has a top8 probability lower than AC Milan because PSG fixtures are more difficult. To be honest in my opinion ELO overrates AC Milan strength

[fabiomh]

I modestly ran my quick simulation based on ELO-ratings.

For final standing, I have

Man City
Bayern
Real Madrid
Arsenal
Inter
Dortmund
Barcelona
Leverkusen
---------------
Atalanta
Milan
Atletico
Liverpool
Stuttgart
Leipzig
Paris SG
Girona
---
PSV
Juventus
Sporting
Aston Villa
Monaco
Bologna
Celtic
Benfica
---------------
Lille
Feyenoord
Brest
Club Brugge
Sparta Praha
Salzburg
Dinamo Zagreb
Sturm Graz
Young Boys
Shakhtar
Crvena zvezda
Slovan Bratislava

So compared to the current ELO-ratings, we can see some effects of the draw
Dortmund in the top 8 at the expense of Liverpool
Celtic in the play-offs at the expense of Lille

I do the same modestly, based on ELO corrected by bookies, as described in my previous post.
After 2,000 runs I have similar outcome.
Here below the details:
(in the brackets the pos diff vs @Lyonnais simulation)
[EDIT: added the position range with 80% likelihood]

Code: Select all

Man City    (= )  [pos 1-7]
Real Madrid (+1) [pos 1-10]
Bayern      (-1)  [pos 1-11]
Inter       (+1) [pos 1-13]
Dortmund    (+1) [pos 1-13]
Arsenal     (-2) [pos 1-14]
Barcelona   (= ) [pos 1-14]
Leverkusen  (= ) [pos 1-15] 
---------------
Atalanta    (= ) [pos 1-16]
Liverpool   (+2) [pos 2-20]
Atletico    (= ) [pos 3-22]
Leipzig     (+2)  [pos 3-22]
Milan       (-3) [pos 3-22]
Stuttgart   (-1) [pos 4-23]
Paris SG    (= )  [pos 5-25]
*Sporting   (+3)  [pos 6-26]   
---
*Girona     (-1)  [pos 7-27]
Juventus    (= ) [pos 8-28]
PSV         (-2)  [pos 8-29]
Aston Villa (= ) [pos 8-28]
Monaco      (= )  [pos 10-30]
Bologna     (= ) [pos 13-32]
Benfica     (+1) [pos 15-34]
Celtic      (-1) [pos 15-33]
---------------
Lille       (= ) [pos 15-33]
Feyenoord   (= ) [pos 18-35]
Club Brugge (+1) [pos 18-35]
Sparta Praha (+1) [pos 19-35]
Brest       (-2) [pos 19-35]
Salzburg    (= ) [pos 20-35]
Dinamo Zagreb (=) [pos 23-36]
Young Boys (+1) [pos 26-36]
Sturm Graz (-1) [pos 26-36]
Crvena zvezda (+1) [pos 27-36]
Shakhtar   (-1) [pos 27-36]
Slovan Bratislava (=) [pos 32-36]

[Metallica1989]

It is interesting to follow how Shakhtar, after the departure of all the legionnaires on 24.02.22 (195.60 mln), is slowly starting to return its potential, using the example of the transfermarket, I decided to compare the cost of the team before the start of the Champions League of the seasons 22/23 23/24 24/25

01.09.22 - 73.35 mln
01.09.23 - 98.90 mln
01.09.24 - 159.60 mln
01.09.25 - 200 ?

This does not mean that the result this season will be better, it is just an indicator that the potential of the squad has grown, which increases the likelihood that the result can be better. And all this is happening during a total war, fantastic

Surprised they didn't sell Sudakov this window...

it's even bad that they didn't sell, Sudakov could lose motivation, he could ruin the atmosphere in the team by not leaving

[Club-Mate]

It is interesting to follow how Shakhtar, after the departure of all the legionnaires on 24.02.22 (195.60 mln), is slowly starting to return its potential, using the example of the transfermarket, I decided to compare the cost of the team before the start of the Champions League of the seasons 22/23 23/24 24/25

01.09.22 - 73.35 mln
01.09.23 - 98.90 mln
01.09.24 - 159.60 mln
01.09.25 - 200 ?

This does not mean that the result this season will be better, it is just an indicator that the potential of the squad has grown, which increases the likelihood that the result can be better. And all this is happening during a total war, fantastic

Surprised they didn't sell Sudakov this window...

it's even bad that they didn't sell, Sudakov could lose motivation, he could ruin the atmosphere in the team by not leaving

Shaktar's (and some other teams) ranking at Elo is a big joke they are behind Eibar, Hamburg and so on. We are talking about a champions league regular and currently at place 22 in Uefa CL club ranking. Elo cannot handle well either momentum or current strenghts or overestimates not so important league defeats otherwise it would not spit out this. It works better for chess for which it has been invented if I am not wrong. Shaktar loose against Polissia in a random match in Ukr league and they would not make up the points anymore even with a CL win against Real - something like that or what I found out some years ago Salzburg drew away at Chelsea and the very few points they got was about like a win at home against Altach. For every logic thinking person this is incomprehensible. Shaktar should be about 60 places higher or even more.

[anty1975]

Surprised they didn't sell Sudakov this window...

it's even bad that they didn't sell, Sudakov could lose motivation, he could ruin the atmosphere in the team by not leaving

Shaktar's (and some other teams) ranking at Elo is a big joke they are behind Eibar, Hamburg and so on. We are talking about a champions league regular and currently at place 22 in Uefa CL club ranking. Elo cannot handle well either momentum or current strenghts or overestimates not so important league defeats otherwise it would not spit out this. It works better for chess for which it has been invented if I am not wrong. Shaktar loose against Polissia in a random match in Ukr league and they would not make up the points anymore even with a CL win against Real - something like that or what I found out some years ago Salzburg drew away at Chelsea and the very few points they got was about like a win at home against Altach. For every logic thinking person this is incomprehensible. Correct results in - garbage out at least for some items. Shaktar should be about 60 places higher or even more.

Yeah, the main problem is Elo overestimates league matches in which Shakhtar often play with a heavily rotated line-up or even second string team. For Elo line-up/motivation doesn't matter if you lose to a weak side you lose a lot of points.

[babaluj1]

Opta predictions for CL https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/09/champ ... ercomputer
Top 8 are City,Real,Inter,Barca,Bayern,Arsenal,Leverkusen and Dortmund. 9.-16. Liverpool,PSG,Atletico,Leipzig,Atalanta,Sporting,Juve and 16. Girona or Stuttgart. 18.-24. PSV,Milan,Monaco, Benfica,Aston Villa.Bologna and Sparta Praha.

[KRB]

This is my own simulation which I always predict the result. Nearly to the others the count of points (15-16, 8-10)
My simulation is manual, on hard work based on h2h results.

Real Madrid 14-7 22
Liverpool 15-5 18
Aston Villa 14-8 18
Bayern 19-6 17
Arsenal 18-10 16
Girona 16-8 16
Dortmund 15-7 16
Man. City 13-7 16
----------------------------------------------

Barcelona 11-5 16
Monaco 15-10 16
Atalanta 12-6 13
Juventus 9-5 13
PSG 12-12 13
Leipzig 11-12 13
Sparta 14-9 12
Salzburg 8-12 12
----------------
Atletico 11-11 11
Benfica 13-13 10
Bologna 11-16 10
Milan 10-7 9
Stuttgart 9-9 9
Brest 6-7 8
Zvezda 11-14 8
Sporting Lisbon 10-13 8

------------------------------------------------
Inter 10-14 8
PSV 10-15 7
Celtic 6-12 7
Leverkusen 5-8 6
Club Brugge 10-15 6
Zagreb 7-19 6
Young Boys 8-15 5
Graz 7-15 5
Shakhtar 6-15 5
Feyenoord 9-18 3
Lille 7-14 3
Slovan 4-11 1

Girona at the top 8 out of Barcelona and Inter at the bottom.

I made the same predictions here:
viewtopic.php?t=6538&start=15

[mspm89]

It's hard to see Girona as a top 8 team after their inital performances in the Liga. Them and Bologna have the potential of embarrassing their respective leagues.

[joaol]

Sporting 8 points? Lol...that is a little wierd for a Human simulation... it means you have not been seing football...
I bet Sporting in top 16..probably top 12...