Battle for important ranking positions 2024-25

[babaluj1]

When you look at and compare the rating of clubs by Clubelo and Opta, it is evident that Porto is the first favorite in the EL. Vitoria G. is the fifth favorite in the CO League. Sporting is the 13th favorite in the CL. Braga is the 16th favorite in the EL, and Benfica is the 22nd favorite in the CL. If all 5 Portuguese clubs pass the knockout stage and enter the Top 16, Portugal will be among the most serious competitors for the Top 2 places. Some of the Top 4 countries will certainly lose some clubs in the CL after the knockout stage, and that is possible in the EL as well. Good performances by Benfica and Braga are the key to Portugal's success.

[babaluj1]

Benfica started with a win in the CL, thus increasing Portugal's advantage over the followers of the Top 4 league to 0.650 in front of the nearest Germany. With 2 wins, France made it to 3rd place with a gap of 0.615 behind Portugal. Current order and results of favorites:

1.CZE 4/5 1 0 0 5,700
2. POR 5/5 2 0 0 5,400
-------------------------------------
3.FRA 6/7 3 0 1 4.785
4.GER 8/8 3 0 2 4.750
5.ITA 8/8 1 3 1 4,500
6.ENG 7/7 2 2 0 4.428
7. ESP 7/7 2 0 2 4.285
8. BEL 5/5 0 0 1 3,400
9. NED 5/6 0 0 2 3,000
10.TUR 4/5 0 0 0 2,500
Portugal and the Czech Republic are 100% in the first match day CL, France and England at 75%, Germany at 60%, Italy and Spain at 50%, and Belgium and the Netherlands the worst at 0%. Turkey is not represented in CL.

[Matt7r]

Benfica started with a win in the CL, thus increasing Portugal's advantage over the followers of the Top 4 league to 0.650 in front of the nearest Germany. With 2 wins, France made it to 3rd place with a gap of 0.615 behind Portugal. Current order and results of favorites:

1.CZE 4/5 1 0 0 5,700
2. POR 5/5 2 0 0 5,400
-------------------------------------
3.FRA 6/7 3 0 1 4.785
4.GER 8/8 3 0 2 4.750
5.ITA 8/8 1 3 1 4,500
6.ENG 7/7 2 2 0 4.428
7. ESP 7/7 2 0 2 4.285
8. BEL 5/5 0 0 1 3,400
9. NED 5/6 0 0 2 3,000
10.TUR 4/5 0 0 0 2,500
Portugal and the Czech Republic are 100% in the first match day CL, France and England at 75%, Germany at 60%, Italy and Spain at 50%, and Belgium and the Netherlands the worst at 0%. Turkey is not represented in CL.

@OptaAnalyst on X has published its EPS calculations and has chances of finishing in the top 2 as (approximate change this week in brackets):
England 72% (+10%)
Spain 55% (-7%)
Portugal 30% (+5%)
Germany 25% (no change)
Italy 17% (-8%)
Any other country <1% (Czech, France and Belgium all have non zero chances - 0.4%,0.2% and 0.1% respectively)

Germany and Italy are slightly hampered with their fifth placed EPS teams in the Champions League potentially diluting the average performance. Will be interesting to watch Sporting and Benfica - if they can both outperform expectations Portugal have a great chance of making the race for the EPS very interesting!

[babaluj1]

Opta is funny with its predictions.England 72 and Italy 17 percent? Last year they gave England 96% chances, so they finished convincingly third. So far, I would say that 6 countries have from 20% to 40%. These are the Big Four, Portugal and France. All the others together have about 20%. All these countries are very equal, and the situation will be clarified only when the League phase is played. At the moment, I would say that England and Italy have the best chances, around 35 to 40%. Spain and Germany about 30%, Portugal 25% and France 20%.
But it is too early to talk about the chances when all the clubs have not even played their first matches.

[eye]

Opta is funny with its predictions.England 72 and Italy 17 percent? Last year they gave England 96% chances, so they finished convincingly third. So far, I would say that 6 countries have from 20% to 40%. These are the Big Four, Portugal and France. All the others together have about 20%. All these countries are very equal, and the situation will be clarified only when the League phase is played. At the moment, I would say that England and Italy have the best chances, around 35 to 40%. Spain and Germany about 30%, Portugal 25% and France 20%.
But it is too early to talk about the chances when all the clubs have not even played their first matches.

For Italy points are divided by 8 while for England are divided by 7 and this is an advantage for England. At first round of CL English clubs got 6 points for country while Italian clubs 5 despite that there is 1 more Italian club and despite that Italian clubs played 4 out of 5 matches at home while only 1 English club played at home. Also the results of matches affect the league standings so currently English clubs are higher than Italian at rankings which means more bonus points for England. All these are enough for the huge difference at chances for England and Italy.

After MD1 England is big favourite for EPS followed by Germany and Spain (maybe Germany has a little advantage due to better results). Portugal current;y has more chances than Italy since they had just 5 clubs at the beginning of season at competitions so their wins award more points and are getting great results so far. I don't think France and any other country outside top4 has realistic chances for EPS when they have lost club(s) at qualification since all the rest clubs of country should cover these missing points and generally they are that strong to do it.

[babaluj1]

Opta is funny with its predictions.England 72 and Italy 17 percent? Last year they gave England 96% chances, so they finished convincingly third. So far, I would say that 6 countries have from 20% to 40%. These are the Big Four, Portugal and France. All the others together have about 20%. All these countries are very equal, and the situation will be clarified only when the League phase is played. At the moment, I would say that England and Italy have the best chances, around 35 to 40%. Spain and Germany about 30%, Portugal 25% and France 20%.
But it is too early to talk about the chances when all the clubs have not even played their first matches.

For Italy points are divided by 8 while for England are divided by 7 and this is an advantage for England. At first round of CL English clubs got 6 points for country while Italian clubs 5 despite that there is 1 more Italian club and despite that Italian clubs played 4 out of 5 matches at home while only 1 English club played at home. Also the results of matches affect the league standings so currently English clubs are higher than Italian at rankings which means more bonus points for England. All these are enough for the huge difference at chances for England and Italy.

After MD1 England is big favourite for EPS followed by Germany and Spain (maybe Germany has a little advantage due to better results). Portugal current;y has more chances than Italy since they had just 5 clubs at the beginning of season at competitions so their wins award more points and are getting great results so far. I don't think France and any other country outside top4 has realistic chances for EPS when they have lost club(s) at qualification since all the rest clubs of country should cover these missing points and generally they are that strong to do it.

I agree that for Italy and Germany it is a handicap for the coefficient that they play with 8 clubs. I agree that the English played the best first match day in the CL out of the Top 4, after all, I stated that the English have a success rate of 75%, the Germans 60%, and the Italians and Spaniards only 50%. But it's only the first match day, we have 7 more match days in CL, 8 match days in EL and 6 match days in CO.
For the Italian clubs, I think that they are not yet at full working temperature, that's what the Serie A table says. Inter is only fifth, Juve sixth, Atalanta eighth, Milan tenth, and Bologna 17th. All these clubs will grow and get better every week.
As I said, the differences between the clubs of the 4 strongest leagues are minimal, and mostly luck, the draw, nuances and details will decide. France and Portugal also have their chance, after all, the biggest surprise in the first match day was provided by Monaco by defeating the favored Barcelona.

[FrancoisD]

For France, the loss of Lens in Conference League will be hard to compensate. Good results in CL can help reinforce the 5th place in Country ranking, but talking about the 1-year ranking seems more far-fetched.

[Lyonnais]

Definitely agree. Without Lens in CoL it’s not realistic

[babaluj1]

For France, the loss of Lens in Conference League will be hard to compensate. Good results in CL can help reinforce the 5th place in Country ranking, but talking about the 1-year ranking seems more far-fetched.

If last season Germany had lost Eintracht in the CO league qualifiers, it would not have affected their second place at all. Eintracht won 9.5 points in CO, which divided by 7 equals 1.357 coefficients. Instead of 19,357, Germany would have had a coefficient of 18,000 and would have been convincingly second again.
So the loss of one club in the CO qualifications can be compensated by the excellent performances of the other clubs. This season is even easier because the bonus points in the CL, as well as in the EL, are significantly higher than in the CO league, as well as the number of matches.
It's certainly a handicap to play the League stage with one less club, but it's funny that OPTA gives France less than 1% chance even though the French won 3 out of 4 matches in the first match day of the CL. Of these, 2 victories over the Spaniards.

[Lyonnais]

You have a point but at that stage it’s not realistic (unfortunately). Let’s first save our 5th place - Portugal may be threatening again - and if possible take enough points so that we are comfortable for a couple of years.

[babaluj1]

You have a point but at that stage it’s not realistic (unfortunately). Let’s first save our 5th place - Portugal may be threatening again - and if possible take enough points so that we are comfortable for a couple of years.

The chances of Portugal and the Netherlands to break into the Top 5 by Country ranking are zero, below 1%. Portugal can win a higher coefficient than France this season because they are really playing very well so far 14 matches, 12 wins, 2 draws without defeat, but in the long term in 5 years they have no chance - the qualification system is such that the Top 5 countries are protected, they only play CO-PO , in addition, French clubs will earn three times more money from UEFA this season than Portugal or the Netherlands. In the coming years, the French will regularly play with 4 or 5 clubs in the CL and will be richer and therefore stronger.

[eye]

For France, the loss of Lens in Conference League will be hard to compensate. Good results in CL can help reinforce the 5th place in Country ranking, but talking about the 1-year ranking seems more far-fetched.

If last season Germany had lost Eintracht in the CO league qualifiers, it would not have affected their second place at all. Eintracht won 9.5 points in CO, which divided by 7 equals 1.357 coefficients. Instead of 19,357, Germany would have had a coefficient of 18,000 and would have been convincingly second again.
So the loss of one club in the CO qualifications can be compensated by the excellent performances of the other clubs. This season is even easier because the bonus points in the CL, as well as in the EL, are significantly higher than in the CO league, as well as the number of matches.
It's certainly a handicap to play the League stage with one less club, but it's funny that OPTA gives France less than 1% chance even though the French won 3 out of 4 matches in the first match day of the CL. Of these, 2 victories over the Spaniards.

Why is it funny that OPTA gives 1% for France to get EPS? Your example about Germany last season is correct but you missed plenty other important
details.

1 German club was CL's final and 1 other German club was at EL's final. The last 25 years just 4 times French clubs reached finals of CL or EL. How likely is it to have 2 French clubs at finals this year?
There were also 2 German clubs at CL's SFs. Do you remember a season with 2 French clubs at CL's SFs? I don't.
There were also 3 German clubs at CL R16. Again I don't remember ever 3 French clubs at CL R16.

To me even the 1% OPTA is giving to France for EPS seems too much based on the above.

Besides all the above Germany was a kind of lucky to finish 2nd with such points. The reason they did it was that English clubs had terrible season and were unlucky in some cases
Manchester City was eliminated by a much worse overal in both matches Real Madrid at PSO
Liverpool that was 1st or 2nd at EPL lost 0-3 at home to the 5th-6th at Serie A Atalanta
Aston Villa that got CL spot eliminated at ECL from Olympiakos
Manchester United finished last in a group with a Danish and a Turkish club
Newcastle was in a group of death and finished last.

Of course there are surprises at football and this is the reason most people like it but as you can see plenty of them needed to happen in order Germany to finish above England at last season. If 1 or 2 of all the above hadn't happened England would have taken the EPS

[babaluj1]

For France, the loss of Lens in Conference League will be hard to compensate. Good results in CL can help reinforce the 5th place in Country ranking, but talking about the 1-year ranking seems more far-fetched.

If last season Germany had lost Eintracht in the CO league qualifiers, it would not have affected their second place at all. Eintracht won 9.5 points in CO, which divided by 7 equals 1.357 coefficients. Instead of 19,357, Germany would have had a coefficient of 18,000 and would have been convincingly second again.
So the loss of one club in the CO qualifications can be compensated by the excellent performances of the other clubs. This season is even easier because the bonus points in the CL, as well as in the EL, are significantly higher than in the CO league, as well as the number of matches.
It's certainly a handicap to play the League stage with one less club, but it's funny that OPTA gives France less than 1% chance even though the French won 3 out of 4 matches in the first match day of the CL. Of these, 2 victories over the Spaniards.

Why is it funny that OPTA gives 1% for France to get EPS? Your example about Germany last season is correct but you missed plenty other important
details.

1 German club was CL's final and 1 other German club was at EL's final. The last 25 years just 4 times French clubs reached finals of CL or EL. How likely is it to have 2 French clubs at finals this year?
There were also 2 German clubs at CL's SFs. Do you remember a season with 2 French clubs at CL's SFs? I don't.
There were also 3 German clubs at CL R16. Again I don't remember ever 3 French clubs at CL R16.

To me even the 1% OPTA is giving to France for EPS seems too much based on the above.

Besides all the above Germany was a kind of lucky to finish 2nd with such points. The reason they did it was that English clubs had terrible season and were unlucky in some cases
Manchester City was eliminated by a much worse overal in both matches Real Madrid at PSO
Liverpool that was 1st or 2nd at EPL lost 0-3 at home to the 5th-6th at Serie A Atalanta
Aston Villa that got CL spot eliminated at ECL from Olympiakos
Manchester United finished last in a group with a Danish and a Turkish club
Newcastle was in a group of death and finished last.

Of course there are surprises at football and this is the reason most people like it but as you can see plenty of them needed to happen in order Germany to finish above England at last season. If 1 or 2 of all the above hadn't happened England would have taken the EPS

Opta gave England a 72% chance, Spain 55%. These are Opta's main favourites. Portugal got 30%, Germany 25% and Italy 17%, these are Opta favorites from the second plan. The Czech Republic gained 0.4%, France 0.2% and Belgium 0.1%. To me, it is absolutely unrealistic and non-objective, the same as last season.
I would say that England is overrated, but so is Spain, nobody has even a 50% chance so far. Italy is underestimated, not to mention France, the Czech Republic and Belgium. French clubs are getting stronger and richer every year and they show it on the field. The English played desperately last season, only Aston Villa with a lot of luck managed to pass the quarter-finals on penalties against Lilla, where Olympiakos outclassed them with 6:2 in two matches. So don't fly, land with two feet on the ground!

[Lyonnais]

I agree with your post but just for precision

Do you remember a season with 2 French clubs at CL's SFs? I don't.

season 2019-20 PSG and Lyon

[babaluj1]

I agree with your post but just for precision

Do you remember a season with 2 French clubs at CL's SFs? I don't.

season 2019-20 PSG and Lyon

For the Top 2 places, it doesn't matter how many finalists or semi-finalists country have, what matters is that all your clubs go through the knockout stage, if they all reach the quarter-finals, you are surely in the Top 2. This is true this season for Portugal and even probably for France, even though it plays with club less.
The competition is equal and it will be very tight in the fight for the Top 2 places. According to Opta rating, the average strength of clubs in CL is ENG 95.1%, ESP 94.2%, GER 93.66%, POR 91.75%, ITA 91.58% and FRA 90.02%. These are minimal differences of 5% between first and sixth and anything is possible.
If we look at the clubs of those countries in the other leagues, it is even denser and more uncertain there, ENG 89.6%, ITA 88.26%, ESP 88.26%, POR 87.3%, FRA 85.95%, GER 85.16, and there are a lot of competitive clubs from other countries.