Champions League 24/25, Matchday 7 (21-22 January)

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Ricardo
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Post by Ricardo »

Though it was good for PSV/Holland that Benfica lost. It’s not good for PSV that Barca won. Now Liverpool isn’t sure of the first spot, though I guess it’s completely uncertain if 1 or 2 really matters….
Only Zagreb and PSG can kick PSV out of top 24. A lot must go wrong for PSV to not make it, though it can happen.
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FR-Rinaldo
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Post by FR-Rinaldo »

Firnen wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 23:12
BurningStorm wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 23:07
Firnen wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 23:04 Stuttgart didn't destroy Slovan so their GD isn't great.
And a very bad thing is that PSV won in Serbia (despite a much worse xG....). Now they have 11 points, Stuttgart 10. Real, City, Celtic and PSG should overtake Stuttgart now who could end up 25th.

Stuttgart need a point against PSG.
Or they need City to not beat either PSG or Brugge.

Stuttgart needs to eliminate either PSG or City to make it.
I fear a bit for Feyenoord because of tonights results. With matches against Bayern and Lille away our goal difference might ruin it for us especially since half our squad is injured :fingal:
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BurningStorm
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Post by BurningStorm »

Dniprovec wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 23:14
BurningStorm wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 23:07
Firnen wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 23:04 Stuttgart didn't destroy Slovan so their GD isn't great.
And a very bad thing is that PSV won in Serbia (despite a much worse xG....). Now they have 11 points, Stuttgart 10. Real, City, Celtic and PSG should overtake Stuttgart now who could end up 25th.

Stuttgart need a point against PSG.
Feyenoord most likely will drop below Stuttgart though.
You are right! Didn't check the teams above Stuttgart, but they are both at 10 points with a GD of -1.

Stuttgart: PSG (H)
Feyenoord: Bayern (H), Lille (A)

Stuttgart need a hungry Bayern in de Kuip.
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Post by anty1975 »

Ricardo wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 23:14 Though it was good for PSV/Holland that Benfica lost. It’s not good for PSV that Barca won. Now Liverpool isn’t sure of the first spot, though I guess it’s completely uncertain if 1 or 2 really matters….
Only Zagreb and PSG can kick PSV out of top 24. A lot must go wrong for PSV to not make it, though it can happen.
First or second doesn't matter at all so I am sure LIverpool will play with a heavily rotated line-up against PSV. Though of course even second string Liverpool side will be tough for PSV
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Post by anty1975 »

FR-Rinaldo wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 23:15 I fear a bit for Feyenoord because of tonights results. With matches against Bayern and Lille away our goal difference might ruin it for us especially since half our squad is injured :fingal:
Against Bayern chances are slim but Feyenoord can certainly get at least a draw against Lille and almost certainly 11 points will be enough.
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FR-Rinaldo
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Post by FR-Rinaldo »

anty1975 wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 23:23
FR-Rinaldo wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 23:15 I fear a bit for Feyenoord because of tonights results. With matches against Bayern and Lille away our goal difference might ruin it for us especially since half our squad is injured :fingal:
Against Bayern chances are slim but Feyenoord can certainly get at least a draw against Lille and almost certainly 11 points will be enough.
If we are on full strength we can yes. But we miss almost our complete midfield including their back-ups and they are not expected to be back next week. Also no away fans next week to :down:
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Post by BurningStorm »

Leverkusen are at 13pts with a GD of 6. They face Sparta at home on MD8. So I guess with a 2-0, 3-0 or higher the chances are still good. What is your prediction @Dniprovec ?
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Post by Dniprovec »

BurningStorm wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 23:29 Leverkusen are at 13pts with a GD of 6. They face Sparta at home on MD8. So I guess with a 2-0, 3-0 or higher the chances are still good. What is your prediction @Dniprovec ?
As per simulation winning gives them ~90% chance to be in Top-8. Goal difference doesn't seem to be a decisive factor here: +1 win gives them 85%, +2 win - 88%, +3% - 91% etc.

Losing or drawing and they are out of Top-8.

Overall chance for top-8 is 70%.
Last edited by Dniprovec on Tue Jan 21, 2025 23:47, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Dniprovec »

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Post by Dniprovec »

All in all it looks like Liverpool, Barcelona, Arsenal, Inter, Atletico, Bayern and Bayer are pretty much in top-8 bar any major upset. Milan, Aston Villa, Brest or Atalanta - one of them will probably be the 8th.
Last edited by Dniprovec on Tue Jan 21, 2025 23:50, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by BurningStorm »

Dniprovec wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 23:45
BurningStorm wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 23:29 Leverkusen are at 13pts with a GD of 6. They face Sparta at home on MD8. So I guess with a 2-0, 3-0 or higher the chances are still good. What is your prediction @Dniprovec ?
As per simulation winning gives them ~90% chance to be in Top-8. Goal difference doesn't seem to be a decisive factor here: +1 win gives them 85%, +2 win - 88%, +3% - 91% etc.

Losing or drawing and they are out of Top-8.
Nice. Thank you. :up: In 24h I might ask again. :)
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Post by fabiomh »

after the results of tonight Atletico improved their chance to access the Top8, and BVB wasted their chances.
Many teams should thank Bologna for that, Milan could be one of them if they don't waste their own chances in the next two matches.

My simulation for Top8

100% Liverpool
100% FC Barcelona
93% Arsenal
89% Internazionale
86% Bayern München
76% Atlético Madrid
73% Bayer Leverkusen
58% AC Milan
40% Aston Villa
30% Atalanta
28% Stade Brestois
11% Lille OSC
9% Sporting CP Lisbon
3% Borussia Dortmund
3% AS Monaco
<1% Feyenoord, Real Madrid, Juventus, Celtic

My simulation for Top24 - KO Playoff:

16 teams sure: Liverpool, FC Barcelona, Arsenal, Inter, Bayern, Atletico, Leverkusen, Milan, Aston Villa, Atalanta, Brest, Lille, Dortmund, Monaco, Juventus, PSV

12 teams fighting for 8 places:
99% Real Madrid
99% Sporting CP
97% Club Brugge
93% Benfica
92% Celtic
89% Manchester City
77% Stuttgart
76% Feyenoord
59% Paris
11% Dinamo Zagreb
<1% Sparta Praha, Shakhtar

8 teams eliminated: Leipzig, Girona, Bologna, Salzburg, Sturm, Red Star, Young Boys, Slovan Bratislava
Hope for more partecipants in the next Prediction Game
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Lyonnais
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Post by Lyonnais »

Thanks Fabio and Dniprovec :up:
Don't forget to post your predictions for the new season
viewtopic.php?p=603786#p603786
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Post by naaba »

Firnen wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 21:59 Brugge needs to win - with 11 points they might not make it if they lose to City.
Simulations now give Brugge 97% chances of going through.

If City win in Paris, I believe it should climb to 99%.
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Post by anty1975 »

naaba wrote: Wed Jan 22, 2025 02:04
Firnen wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 21:59 Brugge needs to win - with 11 points they might not make it if they lose to City.
Simulations now give Brugge 97% chances of going through.

If City win in Paris, I believe it should climb to 99%.
Draw in Paris is also good for Brugge, one bad result is PSG win
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