German Football 2024-25

[Lorric]

If Mainz won't end up worse than 7th you want them in the EL, can't risk an unseeded ECL qualifier. So same issue for Wolfsburg. Freiburg will be seeded.

Heidenheim was seeded too, so it should be the same for Mainz. We can argue that they could still fail, wouldn't be the first time, under Thomas Tuchel Mainz messed up the EL qualification against Greek team Asteras Tripolis more than 10 years ago. Three years before, they also lost in the EL qualification against an unkown team from Romania, in PSO. That's one of the reasons why I don't want them ever again in those kind of games. There are a lot of smaller German teams who did a (very) good job for us, Mainz always was one of the few shameful ones. So yes, it's probably better if they are qualified for the EL LP instead of playing CoL playoffs. Ending up 8th would be the perfect place for them as of now, unfortunately very difficult after the two recent wins.

It can vary a lot where the seeding line is. But I think you might be right, I checked and was very surprised how low it was this year. With more GS places in all competitions it might not be a factor anymore that our teams could fall below the line.

[GermanyFourWorldCups]

Disgraceful defeat for Dortmund. Top 12 budget in Europe. What a comedy club. Laughable.

[GermanyFourWorldCups]

2. Bundesliga at MD 26.
Only 8 games more. HSV as usual top of the league at this stage just before the violent crash in the final lap.

[angel_87]

Bayer beats Stuttgart 3-4, decisive as always the man of destiny... Schick

[BurningStorm]

-> Mainz - thank goodness - only with a draw against Freiburg, but again the opponent had the (much) better xG and it was 10 vs 11, so it should have been an away win. On the other hand, Freiburg wouldn't be my favorite team for a CL spot either. So I guess it's a good result for me.

-> Dortmund with a crazy xG of 3.11 and still unable to score in Leipzig. Another painful defeat for the black-yellows. For my goal to avoid Mainz in the CL it might be good as Leipzig got important 3 points. I don't like them and they should be ashamed for their idiotic CL season, but still better than Mainz. Quality wise they are strong enough to play a good CL season, especially with a new coach by then. But I don't like the fact that Dortmund couldn't get a point again. It looks more and more realistic that they miss out on Europe. Please get at least the 7th or 6th place, I don't mind (as long as the 7th place is a spot for Europe, which is likely with Leverkusen being the favs).

-> Bayern failed to win, 1-1 at Union after the defeat against Bochum.

-> Crazy game in Stuttgart. The old Leverkusen from previous season was back for another late dance. As angel_87 said, it was Schick again, of course! But Boniface coming off the bench was maybe the key to turn it around, huge impact. So "only" 6 points behind Bayern now. Kane is shaking, right?

[Lorric]

It was looking like the trio would be bit by the CL bug again, but Leverkusen dug deep, I guess they could not allow another opportunity to close the gap to slip through their fingers.

I'm not worried yet, the table (about double Leverkusen's GD) and the CL battle between the two says Bayern are better.

[Lyonnais]

WhoScored marks after 26 games



Top 10

7.71 Harry Kane (Bayern, FW, 31, ENG)
7.64 Florian Wirtz (Leverkusen, AMC, 21, GER)
7.57 Jamal Musiala (Bayern, AMC, 22, GER)
7.54 Michael Olise (Bayern, AMR, 23, FRA)
7.39 Tim Kleindienst (Mönchengladbach, FW, 29, GER)
7.34 Joshua Kimmich (Bayern, DMC, 30, GER)
7.32 Xavi Simons (Leipzig, AMC, 21, NED)
7.31 Hugo Ekitiké (Frankfurt, FW, 22, FRA)
7.25 Nadiem Amiri (Mainz, MC, 28, GER)
7.22 Dayot Upamecano (Bayern, DC, 26, FRA)
etc.


Best XI

............................................ H.Kane (Bayern) ...................................
................. V.Grifo (Freiburg) - F.Wirtz (Leverkusen) - M.Olise (Bayern) ...........
................................. J.Kimmich (Bayern) - N.Amiri (Mainz) .....................
M.Mittelstädt (Stuttgart) - D.Upamecano (Bayern) - M.Jenz (Mainz) - A.Caci (Mainz)
......................................... R.Zentner (Mainz) ....................................


U21 players

7.18 Tom Bischof (Hoffenheim, MC, 19, GER)
7.05 Jamie Gittens (Dortmund, AML, 20, ENG)
6.82 Aleksandar Pavlovic (Bayern, DMC, 20, GER)
etc.


Best per club

7.71 Harry Kane (Bayern, FW, 31, ENG)
7.64 Florian Wirtz (Leverkusen, AMC, 21, GER)
7.25 Nadiem Amiri (Mainz, MC, 28, GER)
7.31 Hugo Ekitiké (Frankfurt, FW, 22, FRA)
7.32 Xavi Simons (Leipzig, AMC, 21, NED)
7.16 Ritsu Doan (Freiburg, AMR, 26, JPN)
7.39 Tim Kleindienst (Mönchengladbach, FW, 29, GER)
7.19 Mohammed Amoura (Wolfsburg, FW, 24, ALG)
7.10 Alexis Claude-Maurice (Augsburg, AMC, 26, FRA)
7.20 Maximilian Mittelstädt (Stuttgart, DL, 28, GER)
7.17 Serhou Guirassy (Dortmund, FW, 29, GUI)
6.96 Jens Stage (Bremen, MC, 28, DEN)
6.96 Diogo Leite (Union, DC, 26, POR)
7.18 Tom Bischof (Hoffenheim, MC, 19, GER)
6.94 Morgan Guilavogui (St.Pauli, FWR, 27, GUI)
6.96 Patrick Mainka (Heidenheim, DC, 30, GER)
6.83 Bernardo (Bochum, DC, 29, BRA)
6.73 Phil Harres (Kiel, FW, 22, GER)

[Lyonnais]

XG analysis


XPts

What would be the table of all goal chances had been scored?

Bayern would be comfortably on top, Leverkusen comfortably second but Dortmund would be in the position to qualify for the next CL!
but Dortmund don't score the goals they are expected to and concede more goals than they are expected to. It's the most unfortunate team (35 pts vs 43 expected)
The most fortunate is Leipzig who in contrary has 42 points vs 34 expected.

Code: Select all

Xpts	Pts	Diff.	
63,3	62	-1,3	Bayern
50,6	56	+5,4	Leverkusen
44,9	45	+0,1	Frankfurt
42,9	35	-7,9	Dortmund
--------------------------------
42,1	37	-5,1	Stuttgart
40,0	45	+5,0	Mainz
39,0	42	+3,0	Freiburg
-------------------------------
34,7	38	+3,4	Wolfsburg
34,4	42	+7,6	Leipzig
33,8	33	-0,8	Bremen
32,6	28	-4,6	Union
32,4	40	+7,6	Mönchengladbach
32,2	38	+5,8	Augsburg
31,3	25	-6,3	St. Pauli
26,7	26	-0,7	Hoffenheim
-----------------------------------
26,3	19	-7,3	Heidenheim
23,7	16	-7,7	Kiel
21,7	17	-4,7	Bochum

XG

Bayern create much more goal chances than anybody else.
The most performing team however is Wolfsburg who scored 49 goals for 42 goal chances.
The least performing is Bochum with 24 goals socred for 35 XG (-11!)

Code: Select all

XG	Goals	Diff.	
73,9	75,0	+1,1	Bayern
55,5	54,0	-1,5	Frankfurt
54,5	59,0	+4,6	Leverkusen
50,9	47,0	-3,9	Stuttgart
50,7	45,0	-5,7	Dortmund
(...)
33,9	31,0	-2,9	Heidenheim
33,9	24,0	-9,9	Union
30,9	36,0	+5,1	Kiel
30,5	20,0	-10,5	St. Pauli
29,2	29,0	-0,2	Augsburg

XGA

Bayern allow much less goal chances than anybody else but surprisingly concede more than expected (24 goals conceded for 20 XGA)
The most performing team is Leipzig with 33 goals conceded for 48 XGA
The least performing is Kiel with 62 goals conceded for 51 XGA

Code: Select all

XGA	GA	Diff.	
19,6	24,0	+4,4	Bayern
30,8	33,0	+2,2	Leverkusen
35,9	35,0	-0,9	Augsburg
36,3	38,0	+1,7	Freiburg
36,4	41,0	+4,6	Dortmund
(...)
49,1	52,0	+2,9	Heidenheim
51,2	62,0	+10,9	Kiel
51,4	48,0	-3,4	Hoffenheim
51,6	40,0	-11,6	Mönchengladbach
59,1	51,0	-8,1	Bochum

Top Scorers

Remarkable efficiency for Harry Kane, Patrik Schick or Omar Marmoush who did a fantastic first part of the season before leaving to City.

Code: Select all

Goals	XG	Diff.	
24,0	19,6	+4,4	Harry Kane (Bayern)
17,0	11,6	+5,5	Patrik Schick (Leverkusen)
15,0	10,5	+4,6	Omar Marmoush (Frankfurt)
15,0	11,5	+3,5	Jonathan Burkardt (Mainz)
15,0	14,7	+0,3	Tim Kleindienst (Mönchengladbach)
14,0	18,9	-4,9	Serhou Guirassy (Dortmund)
13,0	18,7	-5,7	Hugo Ekitiké (Frankfurt)
11,0	10,3	+0,8	Jamal Musiala (Bayern)
10,0	8,5	+1,5	Benjamin Sesko (Leipzig)
10,0	8,9	+1,1	Mohammed Amoura (Wolfsburg)
10,0	10,7	-0,7	Ermin Demirovic (Stuttgart)

[Lorric]

Four Bayern players and four MAINZ players in the XI.

Kane leading the way, but 5 Bayern players in the top 10, looks like they're a real team this season.

Kane smashing his XG as always. Maybe we need KG for him.

[BurningStorm]

Ridiculous, the xG stats of Dortmund and what they did from it. Maybe selling a classic finisher like Füllkrug was a huge mistake. Guirassy has his qualities and can be a top striker, but he is also a reason for their poor finishing. Having both in the squad would be a good mix.

[Lorric]

Kane was instrumental in Bayern's 3-2 win over St. Pauli, scoring the opening goal and putting Sane's winner on a plate for him. But Sane and Olise were instrumental too, 2 goals and 2 assists respectively.

[Lorric]

Leipzig have to sack Rose immediately

Rose has been pruned.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/ar ... 7v3yd130zo

[angel_87]

Leipzig have to sack Rose immediately

Rose has been pruned.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/ar ... 7v3yd130zo

[BurningStorm]

Just like BVB with Sahin -> way too late. But maybe not too late for the CL spot, we'll see.





Mainz lost at Dortmund which was important. Gladbach looking good at the moment. They still have to play away at Bayern and Dortmund, but the other games are all doable. Leipzig possibly with the "new coach" momentum. With Rose they would have failed, now they look like the most realistic 4th team again. Eintracht of course not through, but should be stable enough.

Super important game next MD between Freiburg and Dortmund. With a win and 41 points Dortmund would be back in the game for Europe. They should avoid a defeat because the game after Freiburg is Bayern away... So better get the 3 points here.

Exciting fight for Europe. 5 teams fighting for two CL spots. And even Bremen as 12th is in the race for the European spots.

[Lorric]

No one can stop Kane. He has scored against every Bundesliga team at least once.