Page 1 of 1

Statistics about home advantage in 2nd leg?

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 09:41
by spoonman
Does anyone have reliable statistics about the percentage of clubs reaching the next round after having the 2nd leg at home? Ideally, these statistics should include all knock-out matches in European Cups since the introduction of the away goals rule.

My guess would be that the figure is not higher than 53 or 54 per cent.

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 10:08
by spoonman
Sorry for that... I've just found a source myself:
Research led by a London-based French academic, Lional Page, considered 6,182 European ties (12,364 matches) between 1955 and 2006, and found a probability of 53.77 (against an expected 50) that the home team in the second leg wins. ... tball.html

But the 2nd leg home advantage has decreased over the years: Between 1996 and 2006, it was "only" 51,79%. ... mpetitions

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 14:59
by Jens
only matches with 2 legs played are taken into consideration (no group stage matches, of course)

all matches since '55

last 5 years:

last 5 years, without "advantage draw" rounds

last 5 years, without qualifying rounds, without "advantage draw" rounds

["advantage draw" rounds are rounds like CL Round2 in which group winners are drawn against 2nd placed teams having the "2nd leg at home" advantage]

me :D
(I prepared an Excel sheet including all matches)

It's easy to see that in qualifying rounds the advantage of playing the 2nd leg at home is considerably higher.
Maybe it's allegeable by higher importance of psychological factors if players are not high-level.
Maybe experienced, high-level and high-professional players bring along more "mental strength".

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 15:10
by Lusankya
I think you have an advantage if you play the second match away. Usually the moment, when you score one away goal more than your opponent, the match is over.

This season Werder Bremen was the perfect example.

Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 21:13
by Jens
Looking at FC Barcelona's European Cup history, the advantage of having the 2nd leg at home is of no importance at all !
The same probability for progressing whether they played their 2nd leg at home or away ! (77,1%)

It's fair to say...
The stronger the team, the less influence by this advantage !