Downfall of Portuguese football League

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Duketown
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Downfall of Portuguese football League

Post by Duketown »

The only reason Portugal has had moderate success the last 15 years, is the influx of South American players. Nothing wrong with that, but if you see what happens in Africa and South America to those youngsters, you'll understand why FIFA/UEFA is anti-TPO. Yes, the world is full of inequality.

So to control this global trend of human trafficking, regulation is needed. Neither FFP and TPO will "level playing field"; it's just brings some common sense, dignity and integrity. Remember that the fight against TPO, brings transparency to football and the world; no more shady off-shore company in Malta, no more untraceable flow of money through Switzerland and the Bahama's and no more hiding ownership in Panama.

Players should be free; not shady traffickers. I call Porto and Benfica shady because of all the money vanishing out of football whenever they transfer players, including unkown side contracts hiding real ownership. Or do you like betting-companies owning players?

And indeed, same can be said for most Iberian clubs, i.e. Seville and Atletico and many other clubs. And ofc, with of without TPO, Portugal and Spain remain the favorite destination for South American players so let them at least pay taxes and debts.
If you're interested in TPO, check the footballleaks-topic about FC Twente. This case will bring TPO to the next level.
http://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum2/viewtop ... f=8&t=3740 [this finally is a case in a country where external influences on squad are forbidden]

And then there still is €2 billion debt in Spanish football and €1 billion in Portuguese.
Debts Iberian clubs (2014/2015 accounts):
Real Madrid (€500 million euros of debt)
Atletico Madrid (€ 539)
Benfica (€ 449)
Sporting (€ 442)
Barcelona(€400)
Valencia (€ 275)
FC Porto (€ 209)
Espanol (€ 140)
Sevilla (€ 101)

With better regulated FIFA/UEFA TPO and UEFA FFP (both EU commission and parliament backed) debts won't rise while Portugal's only USP, TPO, is under attack. Reducing debt is mostly a joint effort between club, local government and national football associations. Stadiums are key to this. Privatizing or changing ownership is the last resort for a club in trouble.

If TPO helps 10%, FFP brings another 10% and prize money changes another 5%, football is making big steps forward again. New UEFA draw rules also favors national champs over big league subtop, which is great for all smaller leagues.

I understand it's impossible to keep all investors out of football but ending with an owner who bankrupt 100 years old football institutes is crazy. Like it was also crazy that clubs are loosing so much money: in transfer-system to shady off-shore companies and due to mis-management and overspending. Above list is the result and doing business with parties like Doyen the consequence. Now it's waiting for those clubs to sell (part) of their soul just to survive and become part of the Oligarch network, just like Valencia did (and Atletico for another 20%).

In 5 years, Benfica and Porto need to step back like even bigger clubs from bigger leagues did. i.e. Celtic and most big Eastern European clubs did. I think in 8-10 years, Portuguese teams will play for country ranking #12. Which is logical given infrastructure and size of competition. Hopefully, clubs can stay connected to it's fanbase instead of being an oligarch toy.
Last edited by Duketown on Mon Mar 21, 2016 19:26, edited 3 times in total.
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Thunder_PT
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Re: Downfall of Portuguese football

Post by Thunder_PT »

Dude, you're obsessed with the supposed downfall of everyone.

I don't have the time to properly answer now, but Portuguese football has never been better, I can't see them below 6th (7th at worst) anytime soon.

I don't know where you got those debt numbers, but they're probably nothing more than the liability, which every big company has and as long as the assets are higher it's OK and that's the case in Portugal.

Portuguese clubs are OK financially, both the big ones and the small ones. It's been a long time since we've heard of a top flight club not being able to pay wages, or not being able to get an European license (one year only 6 did) which was common 10 years ago.

And I should mention Portugal have done amazing work with their youth, of which we can see some results already in youth competitions, and clubs will benefit greatly from it. Benfica already have 2 of their youth in the starting XI of which 18 year old Renato Sanches is a key player. Porto's 18 year old Rúben Neves became the youngest player ever to wear a captain armband in the champions league and the quintet that has been the core of the youth national team that reached the semis of the u17 euro 4 years ago, the final of the u19 euro 2 years ago, and the quarters of the u20 WC last year (though many said they were the best team in the tournament, they lost in penalties against Brazil) should be getting into Porto's main squad next season.

I really don't see why there should be an imminent downfall. The only reason Portuguese clubs have done well was the influx of south Americans in the last 15 years? There has always been and there always will be an influx of south Americans. Cubillas, Branco, Caniggia, Aloísio, Jardel... Just to mention a few key ones, but I could be here all day, all from the 80s/90s. And Porto won the champions league with 8 Portuguese starters, btw.

Is this all wishful thinking? Hoping Portugal, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey all go down so the Netherlands have an open road to the top 6? Won't work like that.
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AlanK
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Re: Downfall of Portuguese football

Post by AlanK »

[quote="Thunder_PT"]Dude, you're obsessed with the supposed downfall of everyone.

I don't know where you got those debt numbers, but they're probably nothing more than the liability, which every big company has and as long as the assets are higher it's OK and that's the case in Portugal.

This is the case for the numbers given for Spain. We've mentioned different types of debt here on the Forum. Long-term debt being serviced as contracted is not a problem (until it is, of course :mrgreen: :mrgreen: ).
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mieszambeton
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Re: Downfall of Portuguese football

Post by mieszambeton »

Portuguese teams will play for country ranking #12. Which is logical given infrastructure and size of competition.
Well, I would agree to this if... there were any contenders. Turkey? ok Netherlands? ok, but Switzerland? Greece? Czech? these are even smaller countries in football case. Even if Sporting, Porto, Benfica budget decreased by 75%, they wont go out of top 8.
Duketown
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Re: Downfall of Portuguese football

Post by Duketown »

Thunder_PT wrote:Dude, you're obsessed with the supposed downfall of everyone.
lol, the downfall of one is the rise of another.. This is not an obsession; just simple general law.
Thunder_PT wrote:I don't know where you got those debt numbers, but they're probably nothing more than the liability, which every big company has and as long as the assets are higher it's OK and that's the case in Portugal.

Portuguese clubs are OK financially, both the big ones and the small ones. It's been a long time since we've heard of a top flight club not being able to pay wages, or not being able to get an European license (one year only 6 did) which was common 10 years ago.
As stated, debts are from annual reports. So believe me, Portuguese and Spanish clubs are not OK.
Thunder_PT wrote:And I should mention Portugal have done amazing work with their youth, of which we can see some results already in youth competitions, and clubs will benefit greatly from it. Benfica already have 2 of their youth in the starting XI of which 18 year old Renato Sanches is a key player. Porto's 18 year old Rúben Neves became the youngest player ever to wear a captain armband in the champions league and the quintet that has been the core of the youth national team that reached the semis of the u17 euro 4 years ago, the final of the u19 euro 2 years ago, and the quarters of the u20 WC last year (though many said they were the best team in the tournament, they lost in penalties against Brazil) should be getting into Porto's main squad next season.
Yes this is the road for all endangered club: replace expensive players with youth players.
Thunder_PT wrote:Is this all wishful thinking? Hoping Portugal, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey all go down so the Netherlands have an open road to the top 6? Won't work like that.
Probably, it's my wishful thinking. And you can add Greece, Italy and the rest of Eastern Europe to that list ;-)\
But given general law of politics and economics, it isn't hard to see Portugal, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey struggle for years to come. Let's see how they handle football crisis but I see either much smaller clubs connected to its fans or oligarch toys disconnected to it's fans. Either way, competitions need to step down to a point that fit's it's size and turnover.
mieszambeton wrote:
Duketwon wrote:Portuguese teams will play for country ranking #12. Which is logical given infrastructure and size of competition.
Well, I would agree to this if... there were any contenders. Turkey? ok Netherlands? ok, but Switzerland? Greece? Czech? these are even smaller countries in football case. Even if Sporting, Porto, Benfica budget decreased by 75%, they wont go out of top 8.
Good point. But it's hard predicting where money is moving. My Top 12 in 2026:
Germany, England, Spain, France, Italy, Russia, The Netherlands, Turkey, Poland, Ukraine, Switzerland, Portugal. All 11 competitions are bigger then Portuguese.
Last edited by Duketown on Mon Mar 21, 2016 17:57, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Downfall of Portuguese football

Post by mieszambeton »

About #6. UEFA will change their participation list rules before any other country would be close to #6. I heard its almost confrimed.
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AlanK
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Re: Downfall of Portuguese football

Post by AlanK »

[quote="Duketown"]

As stated, debts are from annual reports. So believe me, Portuguese and Spanish clubs are not OK.

It's correct to say that "some Spanish clubs are not OK." It's not true that "Spanish clubs are not OK." The clubs on the list you gave--Espanyol is hurting. Valencia depends on Peter Lim, so I won't argue. Real, Barça, and Atleti are OK; if one of those has problems, it's Atleti. Sevilla is OK. Villarreal is OK (although I assume you know that). The fact that the debts are listed on annual reports doesn't mean a whole lot. Are they actively servicing the debt :?: Is there unpaid short-term debt :?: Those are the important questions.
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Duketown
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Re: Downfall of Portuguese football

Post by Duketown »

AlanK wrote:
Duketown wrote:
As stated, debts are from annual reports. So believe me, Portuguese and Spanish clubs are not OK.
It's correct to say that "some Spanish clubs are not OK." It's not true that "Spanish clubs are not OK." The clubs on the list you gave--Espanyol is hurting. Valencia depends on Peter Lim, so I won't argue. Real, Barça, and Atleti are OK; if one of those has problems, it's Atleti. Sevilla is OK. Villarreal is OK (although I assume you know that). The fact that the debts are listed on annual reports doesn't mean a whole lot. Are they actively servicing the debt :?: Is there unpaid short-term debt :?: Those are the important questions.
OFC, there is more to it, like you say.

Most Spanish clubs are at least paying their tax debts (and transfer fees) now, thnx to UEFA and EU intervention. Guestimation is that by the end of 2019, last €350 million tax debts should be paid. However, this is at the expense for player salary, as stated by The Spanish Footballer’s Association (AFE). Unpaid salary rising 360% in 2014 says it all...

Rest of the short term debts is mostly related to TPO and thus mis-management from the past. And the impact of the fight against TPO remains to be seen but FIFA, UEFA, EU (commission and parliament) and most FA's are fighting this Hydra. So I expect more troubles to come for Iberian clubs which depend heavily on TPO.

Most of the other debt is to community, which are paying for most stadiums. While this debts isn't short-term (it should be!), payments aren't coming.....
Atletico and Barca plan on (re)new(ing) stadiums and this could refinance debts. Atletico solved most direct problems by selling 20% ownership for €44 million to Wanda Property. Espanyol is on the verge of a take-over since they cannot solve the problems by themselves. Similar scenario is what happened to Valencia. I'm not sure about Villareal and Seville. Ofc, I'm also aware of troubled Sporting Gijon, Deportivo la Coruna, Osasuna, Hercules, Real Betis, Elche and Eibar to name a few.

Luckily for Spanish football, the new TV deal is good for all clubs. Since Italy has the same problems, I expect Spain to be top 3 League for at least another 10 years. With €2.5 billion turnover, debts are in normal proportion. The problem is that most of the debts are to community (even EU community if banks are in between) so those debts need new owners from private sector. More oligarch money is needed (like Qatari money helping Barca) and hopefully community will stay connected to those new dynamics.

I wonder what the state of affairs is with Real Madrid and it shady ground deal.

Note: Long-term debts to community who stepped in to rescue a mis-managed club is not similar to long-term debts of healthy clubs who financed stadium with a solid business model in a healthy League.
Last edited by Duketown on Tue Mar 22, 2016 01:19, edited 8 times in total.
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Dragonite
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Re: Downfall of Portuguese football

Post by Dragonite »

Duketown wrote: Germany, England, Spain, France, Italy, Russia, The Netherlands, Turkey, Poland, Ukraine, Switzerland, Portugal. All 11 competitions are bigger then Portuguese.
And the World Cup final will be China vs. India.

I have nothing against your fan fiction, I even thank you for collecting all these statements and putting them in one topic with a memorable title. :D

I just want to give you an advice: there is a Belgian guy that really wants to support you, but it will be difficult with this ranking.
He won’t change a “real life” ranking where his Belgium is 9th for a “cloud cuckoo land” ranking where they aren’t top 10.
So, can you please change that ranking and put Belgium in 8th for instance?
And he also likes Italy, so, can you also put Italy above France please?

It’s really a small price to pay, and you get a powerful ally in return.
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Duketown
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Re: Downfall of Portuguese football

Post by Duketown »

Dragonite wrote:
Duketown wrote: Germany, England, Spain, France, Italy, Russia, The Netherlands, Turkey, Poland, Ukraine, Switzerland, Portugal. All 11 competitions are bigger then Portuguese.
And the World Cup final will be China vs. India.
Not unlikely in 2060.
Dragonite wrote:I have nothing against your fan fiction, I even thank you for collecting all these statements and putting them in one topic with a memorable title. :D
Thnx!
Dragonite wrote: I just want to give you an advice: there is a Belgian guy that really wants to support you, but it will be difficult with this ranking.
He won’t change a “real life” ranking where his Belgium is 9th for a “cloud cuckoo land” ranking where they aren’t top 10.
So, can you please change that ranking and put Belgium in 8th for instance?
And he also likes Italy, so, can you also put Italy above France please?
Great arguments! But I indeed forgot about Belgium so Portugal will be ranked #13 in 2026. And maybe Scotland will pass Portugal as well..

You do understand Portugal is a tiny country with a tiny competition with only 3 relevant clubs with a accumulated debt of €1 billion? When player sales come back to normal, matchday revenue, TV money and commercial revenue will give those top 3 maximum budget of €65 million (and €85 with CL).
Dragonite wrote:It’s really a small price to pay, and you get a powerful ally in return.
Annual reports, natural law, law of scale/economics and politics are my sources; no need for ally's to backup reality. Unlike current squads and results from the past, those sources give insight over the 5 years to come. Maybe it's just to far in future for your comprehension.
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Re: Downfall of Portuguese football

Post by ngfsmg »

Duketown, your arguments are a mix of unfortunate truths (unfortunate for the Portuguese clubs obviously), half-lies and total lies.
1st of all, about that influx of South American players, it might be more or less true now, it was 100% true until 4/5 years ago, but it was false 10 years ago. As ThunderPT pointed out, Porto were european champions in 2004 with 8 Portuguese, 1 Brazilian, 1 South-African and 1 Luso-Brazilian (Deco) in their most used 11 players, and in the year before they won the UEFA cup with 9 Portuguese players, 1 Brazilian and Deco! Altho now there are more foreigners than in 2004, things were a lot worse till 2013, when a lot of teams used at most one Portuguese player and sometimes (especially Benfica) they used none. So I'll count this as a half-lie.
I don't even see why you bring FFP into this, but you're mostly right about TPO, cuz Portuguese players "beneficted" a lot from that. You continue talking about South-American players tho, I don't get your obcession, a lot of these players with "weird" contracts are not South-American at all (Imbula for example)! You're right it might be more difficult without this mecanism, altho unless Twente is a city somewhere near my hometown, Portuguese (and Spanish) clubs are far from having been the only ones using it...
However, when you compared Benfica and Porto to Celtic, you made me have a big laugh! Are you really comparing a country which has had 3 european trophies, 7 final and 10 semi-final appearances since 2003 with Scotland?! I remember Celtic and Rangers having lost a final to Porto and Shakhtar Donetsk, but nowadays they're competing with countries like Belarus, not Portugal at all...
As a last thing, I know you're from Netherlands, which I don't know why, seems to be a place where Portuguese football in particular are not liked at all. I don't know if it is cuz of the Netherlands being one of the few top national teams against whom Portugal wins almost always, if it is cuz of that wonderful (wonderful for me eheh) Miguel Garcia goal in Alkmaar in 2004, or if there are other reasons. I just want to say you should be more worried about the (lack of) quality of some players in the Eredivisie, especially deffensive players, cuz a lot of offensice players (Sulejmani, Ola John, Labyad, Djuricic, Depay, etc...) seem to be wonderful while they're there, and when they come to other championships, they reveal themselves to be ordinary players, or players with some potential at best, and despite the fact I admire your investment in youth football, it's been a long time since you last produced a Snejder... Also, I watched parts of PSV-Ajax yesterday and it was far from being a good game, with lots of rough play, and altho I don't want to resume your championship to one game, it was supposedly the game between your 2 best teams.
EDIT: I've just seen your 65 million € budget argument, and it seems you have no idea about how Portuguese football works, Braga went to Europa League final in 2011 with something like a 15 million € budget man! :lol:
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Re: Downfall of Portuguese football

Post by bugylibicska »

Porto beat Celtic,though not Shakhtar, but Zenit beat Glasgow Rangers in the finals.
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Re: Downfall of Portuguese football

Post by ngfsmg »

bugylibicska wrote:Porto beat Celtic,though not Shakhtar, but Zenit beat Glasgow Rangers in the finals.
You're of course totally right, I made a mess between that wonderful 2009 Ukrainian campaign and that wondeful Zenit 2008 campaign, when they even beat Bayern Munich 4-0! :amstupid:
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Re: Downfall of Portuguese football

Post by Duketown »

ngfsmg wrote:Duketown, your arguments are a mix of unfortunate truths (unfortunate for the Portuguese clubs obviously), half-lies and total lies.
Nonsense. My comments are about the future, based on real statistics.
ngfsmg wrote:1st of all, about that influx of South American players, it might be more or less true now, it was 100% true until 4/5 years ago, but it was false 10 years ago. As ThunderPT pointed out, Porto were european champions in 2004 with 8 Portuguese, 1 Brazilian, 1 South-African and 1 Luso-Brazilian (Deco) in their most used 11 players, and in the year before they won the UEFA cup with 9 Portuguese players, 1 Brazilian and Deco! Altho now there are more foreigners than in 2004, things were a lot worse till 2013, when a lot of teams used at most one Portuguese player and sometimes (especially Benfica) they used none. So I'll count this as a half-lie.
Did you hear me about the past? Where is the lie? However, nice piece of history; now man up and embrace reality.
ngfsmg wrote: I don't even see why you bring FFP into this, but you're mostly right about TPO, cuz Portuguese players "beneficted" a lot from that. You continue talking about South-American players tho, I don't get your obcession, a lot of these players with "weird" contracts are not South-American at all (Imbula for example)! You're right it might be more difficult without this mecanism, altho unless Twente is a city somewhere near my hometown, Portuguese (and Spanish) clubs are far from having been the only ones using it...
TPO is a slow process, only started in may 2015 and the Iberian rejection in Bruxelles are only gone since last week. But it will remain slow since problems are much bigger than just football. But the start is there. FFP is just the framework to prevent accumulating debts and FFP is here to stay. So that €1 billion of debts, accumulated last 15 years, can be deducted out of Portuguese football; UEFA won't allow this to grow to €2 billion. And yes, TPO is used all over the world but it's the main driver of Iberian success.

Yes, football in The Netherlands is already cleaned between 2006-2016, up to a point much stronger than FFP. Even without all those debts it took us 10 years to transform to this new reality (which only now kicks in in most other parts of Europe). We already had this process and I've witnessed the long road it took. I can't wait to see UEFA/EU/National FA's/Local government taking next steps to clear community from stadium debts ;-)
ngfsmg wrote: However, when you compared Benfica and Porto to Celtic, you made me have a big laugh! Are you really comparing a country which has had 3 european trophies, 7 final and 10 semi-final appearances since 2003 with Scotland?! I remember Celtic and Rangers having lost a final to Porto and Shakhtar Donetsk, but nowadays they're competing with countries like Belarus, not Portugal at all...
You do understand Portugal is a tiny country with a tiny competition (9.000 fans average with only 16 teams) with only 3 relevant clubs with a accumulated debt of €1 billion? When player sales come back to normal, matchday revenue, TV money and commercial revenue will give those top 3 maximum budget of €65 million (and €85 with CL).
ngfsmg wrote:As a last thing, I know you're from Netherlands, which I don't know why, seems to be a place where Portuguese football in particular are not liked at all. I don't know if it is cuz of the Netherlands being one of the few top national teams against whom Portugal wins almost always, if it is cuz of that wonderful (wonderful for me eheh) Miguel Garcia goal in Alkmaar in 2004, or if there are other reasons. I just want to say you should be more worried about the (lack of) quality of some players in the Eredivisie, especially deffensive players, cuz a lot of offensice players (Sulejmani, Ola John, Labyad, Djuricic, Depay, etc...) seem to be wonderful while they're there, and when they come to other championships, they reveal themselves to be ordinary players, or players with some potential at best, and despite the fact I admire your investment in youth football, it's been a long time since you last produced a Snejder... Also, I watched parts of PSV-Ajax yesterday and it was far from being a good game, with lots of rough play, and altho I don't want to resume your championship to one game, it was supposedly the game between your 2 best teams.
Ajax-PSV was indeed a terrible match. I am not worried about Eredivisie since our topclubs don't have debts but a €200 million surplus. I think Dutch people don't like Portuguese football due to some lost matches on tournaments, being a whining bunch of Robben's. Where I live, we like football as a contact sport. However, as for national teams Dutch and Portuguese teams are similar but the Dutch are way more successful.

That's why it's hard to except for the Dutch that Portugal outperforms the Netherlands in UEFA competition for a long time already. Not because a better competition, better clubs or better management. Only because of TPO and debts. But luckily, dynamics are shifting for the better.
Last edited by Duketown on Mon Mar 21, 2016 19:01, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Downfall of Portuguese football

Post by Dragonite »

Ngfsmg, let him express his predictions/wishes.

Predictions/wishes aren’t true or false, they are just correct or incorrect, and we’ll have to wait until 2026 (!!) to find out about this one.

It’s understandable that when reality is too painful to face, people create a fantasy world where everything is much more pleasant.

Where the hatred towards Portugal comes from is also easy to guess. Portugal is the biggest counter-example to the lies they’ve been telling themselves over the last two decades.

So they must hate Portugal, and create many more lies to explain how Portugal did it, and how it won’t happen again in the future.



The day they stop hating Portugal is the day you should be worried about Portugal, because it won’t stop until they see Portugal in its “rightful place”.
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