New Champions League at 2024 and on

including formats, draws, seedings, etc.
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nogomet
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Post by nogomet »

edit: I was looking at the wrong tab, disregard.
amirbachar
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Post by amirbachar »

dnina10 wrote: Wed Oct 26, 2022 06:20
RedStarBelgrade wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 15:41
amirbachar wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 20:01

This file was just sent to associations, it's quite final.
Okay then it is done. I still stand that my idea is a decent option, we dont need international games in January.
Maybe it will change after 2024-27, i'm sure conference with 6 matches and the other two at 8 is just trialing until the final format in 2027+.

We also have the factor of Europa and Conference being much weaker now, which clubs like Roma or Rangers might not like if they get eliminated early in KO round versus transferring to EL/ECL and reaching 1/2 finals or winning it.
Clubs and fans will have their say in this for sure like they went against Super League before, right now everyone is still happy because the 2021-2024 format is somewhat decent and SL did not happen.

I'm curious to see if someone can do a simulation of the new format f Champions/Europa/Conference based on 2022-2023 (current season) entries to see how these leagues would look like and what would be the teams.
As promised, it is now out. I did an accompanying thread on Twitter that should answer any questions you all maybe have

https://1drv.ms/x/s!Av5EGqq140H7oh0Kbto ... q?e=Q4Kc1d

https://twitter.com/dpnina10/status/158 ... XcLwlyabNw
You have a small mistake in EL PO - Beer Sheva are not from CL (Cluj are), and Zorya should be seeded above them.
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Post by amirbachar »

I think this simulation shows that the balance between EL and ECL will be restored - many weaker clubs will enter EL (from CL Q and surprising cup winners) and in addition there will be more matches in EL, so it would again be beneficial to play EL and not ECL unlike today.
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dnina10
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Post by dnina10 »

amirbachar wrote: Wed Oct 26, 2022 16:03
dnina10 wrote: Wed Oct 26, 2022 06:20
RedStarBelgrade wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 15:41

Okay then it is done. I still stand that my idea is a decent option, we dont need international games in January.
Maybe it will change after 2024-27, i'm sure conference with 6 matches and the other two at 8 is just trialing until the final format in 2027+.

We also have the factor of Europa and Conference being much weaker now, which clubs like Roma or Rangers might not like if they get eliminated early in KO round versus transferring to EL/ECL and reaching 1/2 finals or winning it.
Clubs and fans will have their say in this for sure like they went against Super League before, right now everyone is still happy because the 2021-2024 format is somewhat decent and SL did not happen.

I'm curious to see if someone can do a simulation of the new format f Champions/Europa/Conference based on 2022-2023 (current season) entries to see how these leagues would look like and what would be the teams.
As promised, it is now out. I did an accompanying thread on Twitter that should answer any questions you all maybe have

https://1drv.ms/x/s!Av5EGqq140H7oh0Kbto ... q?e=Q4Kc1d

https://twitter.com/dpnina10/status/158 ... XcLwlyabNw
You have a small mistake in EL PO - Beer Sheva are not from CL (Cluj are), and Zorya should be seeded above them.
Thanks for letting me know. I'll update that when I have a chance
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Firnen
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Post by Firnen »

Including Russia distorts the simulation - Russia is not coming back.
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Club-Mate
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Post by Club-Mate »

Firnen wrote: Wed Oct 26, 2022 18:36 Including Russia distorts the simulation - Russia is not coming back.
they never will come back not even on the battle fields.
RedStarBelgrade
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Post by RedStarBelgrade »

Thanks for that, great work as always :)
Looking at the projected leagues, that Conference might not be that weak after all, even if club and nation coef. can change a lot in 2 years.

I wonder if you or someone else would have the time to do like a mock draw of the 3 leagues and then simulate the results in another simulator a few times, curious to see what the average lowest amount of points in each of the leagues would turn out to be to make it to the KO round around 20-24 position in the league and what would be needed for 8th place that gives the team a bye into the next round.
eye
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Post by eye »

RedStarBelgrade wrote: Thu Oct 27, 2022 00:51 Thanks for that, great work as always :)
Looking at the projected leagues, that Conference might not be that weak after all, even if club and nation coef. can change a lot in 2 years.

I wonder if you or someone else would have the time to do like a mock draw of the 3 leagues and then simulate the results in another simulator a few times, curious to see what the average lowest amount of points in each of the leagues would turn out to be to make it to the KO round around 20-24 position in the league and what would be needed for 8th place that gives the team a bye into the next round.
I didn't use any simulator but I think for CL and EL you will need around 8-9 points to qualify and 10 should be a secure number and to finish at top 8 you will need something like 15-16 points and 17 should be surely enough. For ECL where there will be only 6 matches you will need the average number of points of the 3rd placed clubs of current system to qualify and the average number of group winners of current system to finish at top 8
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Metallica1989
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Post by Metallica1989 »

Will there be shifts in the tournament bracket in the new format,for example, as if the winner of the Europa League gets into the Champions League in his national championship???
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Post by rpo.castro »

Metallica1989 wrote: Fri Oct 28, 2022 16:36 Will there be shifts in the tournament bracket in the new format,for example, as if the winner of the Europa League gets into the Champions League in his national championship???
Yes but with a change: the place goes to, from all clubs in qualifying, the one with higher coeff. Look at this print:
nogomet wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 16:52 Image
amirbachar
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Post by amirbachar »

rpo.castro wrote: Fri Oct 28, 2022 16:55
Metallica1989 wrote: Fri Oct 28, 2022 16:36 Will there be shifts in the tournament bracket in the new format,for example, as if the winner of the Europa League gets into the Champions League in his national championship???
Yes but with a change: the place goes to, from all clubs in qualifying, the one with higher coeff. Look at this print:
nogomet wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 16:52 Image
Oh, actually now I realize that 5th in top 4 leagues are ineligible for the TH spot if it is not used, it's just from CL Q.
It means that now for top 4 league, coefficients only matters a little for money distribution, the seeding in LP won't matter anymore.
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Metallica1989
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Post by Metallica1989 »

rpo.castro wrote: Fri Oct 28, 2022 16:55
Thanx)
DumoKing
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Post by DumoKing »

Can someone clarify this part about leapfrogging. As I understand it, a team placed 2nd in domestic league cannot be lifted to group stage ahead of the 1st place. For instance, this year Rangers was 2nd behind Celtic, but has a higher coefficient so if EL spot was not used then they would be first in the pecking order (after Benfica, but let’s ignore them for now). Now my question is, who would get this spot, is it Celtic that benefits due to nation, or say Dynamo Zagreb due to ranking?
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Post by amenina »

DumoKing wrote: Mon Oct 31, 2022 21:44 Can someone clarify this part about leapfrogging. As I understand it, a team placed 2nd in domestic league cannot be lifted to group stage ahead of the 1st place. For instance, this year Rangers was 2nd behind Celtic, but has a higher coefficient so if EL spot was not used then they would be first in the pecking order (after Benfica, but let’s ignore them for now). Now my question is, who would get this spot, is it Celtic that benefits due to nation, or say Dynamo Zagreb due to ranking?
We don’t know for sure yet, but most likely the latter. Imagine Rangers finished second but a total surprise team like Ross County won the league. I don’t think UEFA will be promoting them to the group stage. It would be against what the rule is supposed to do (reward teams with good historical performance).
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Post by DumoKing »

Also, when it comes to the UECL title spot, as UEL qualifiers cannot leapfrog someone that ended ahead of them, the question is how they rank teams. If CW is higher than N2, then there can be some teams to choose from, otherwise it will nation 8 and 9, plus maybe nations where the champions or runner up got the UCL or UEL title spots.
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