21-22 CL, EL, ECL Group Stage seeding

including formats, draws, seedings, etc.
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Lubomir25
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Post by Lubomir25 »

Wachtwoord wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 00:42
conscription wrote: Tue Aug 17, 2021 18:30
Lubomir25 wrote: Tue Aug 17, 2021 18:11 AZ are favourites to Celtic and Aberdeen are favourites to Qarabag? Interesting. I think the AZ v Celtic will be close but I don't know that AZ have done enough recently to gain that tag and same with Aberdeen.
The Aberdeen tie was the one I was surprised the most as well, always assumed that Scottish clubs outside of Celtic and Rangers were weak, but Qarabag didn't even win the Azeri league. I think it's just a very easy tie.
AZ-Celtic had literally the closest odds of them all, I think if you check them at a different time a different side would be named the "favorite".
Both Celtic and AZ are better off losing then winning. Pot 1 in ECL when they lose and pot 3 in the EL (AZ) or pot 2 in EL (Celtic) when they win. I'm Dutch and rooting hard for a Celtic win.

UEFA should fix the point system and financial reward. EL and Conference are too close (and EL is much much stronger than Conference league).
I don't want my team to lose but it's easier to win the ECL group than finish 3rd in the EL imo
Wachtwoord
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Post by Wachtwoord »

That's true in general already.

Now imagine being in pot 1 in ECL vs pot 3 in EL. And realize that prize money and UEFA points are equal (no bonus points for reaching the group stage of either EL or Conference league).

The theoretical idea of getting more UEFA points in EL vs CL has been there for years but at least there are 4 bonus points for reaching the CL and the money difference will make any team go for CL anyway. But with EL and Conference league it's just irrational to try to win. That's a terrible situation created by the UEFA.
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Lubomir25
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Post by Lubomir25 »

Wachtwoord wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 01:19 That's true in general already.

Now imagine being in pot 1 in ECL vs pot 3 in EL. And realize that prize money and UEFA points are equal (no bonus points for reaching the group stage of either EL or Conference league).

The theoretical idea of getting more UEFA points in EL vs CL has been there for years but at least there are 4 bonus points for reaching the CL and the money difference will make any team go for CL anyway. But with EL and Conference league it's just irrational to try to win. That's a terrible situation created by the UEFA.
You are better finishing 3rd in the EL than 2nd as well due to the standard of teams you play to make the last 16. The set up is stupid
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Post by paddymcp »

Lubomir25 wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 01:24
Wachtwoord wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 01:19 That's true in general already.

Now imagine being in pot 1 in ECL vs pot 3 in EL. And realize that prize money and UEFA points are equal (no bonus points for reaching the group stage of either EL or Conference league).

The theoretical idea of getting more UEFA points in EL vs CL has been there for years but at least there are 4 bonus points for reaching the CL and the money difference will make any team go for CL anyway. But with EL and Conference league it's just irrational to try to win. That's a terrible situation created by the UEFA.
You are better finishing 3rd in the EL than 2nd as well due to the standard of teams you play to make the last 16. The set up is stupid
Why is it better to finish 3rd than 2nd?

Because of the standard of teams you play?

That doesn’t make sense. You play football to try and succeed at the highest level you can. So what if the teams are harder if finishing 2nd? If you finished 2nd it also means YOUR better.

I get the argument about points being similar in the ECL and EL not being quite fair but ranking points are only for the computer. Footballs played to win and the benefits will be reaped later.
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Lubomir25
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Post by Lubomir25 »

paddymcp wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 03:19
Lubomir25 wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 01:24
Wachtwoord wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 01:19 That's true in general already.

Now imagine being in pot 1 in ECL vs pot 3 in EL. And realize that prize money and UEFA points are equal (no bonus points for reaching the group stage of either EL or Conference league).

The theoretical idea of getting more UEFA points in EL vs CL has been there for years but at least there are 4 bonus points for reaching the CL and the money difference will make any team go for CL anyway. But with EL and Conference league it's just irrational to try to win. That's a terrible situation created by the UEFA.
You are better finishing 3rd in the EL than 2nd as well due to the standard of teams you play to make the last 16. The set up is stupid
Why is it better to finish 3rd than 2nd?

Because of the standard of teams you play?

That doesn’t make sense. You play football to try and succeed at the highest level you can. So what if the teams are harder if finishing 2nd? If you finished 2nd it also means YOUR better.

I get the argument about points being similar in the ECL and EL not being quite fair but ranking points are only for the computer. Footballs played to win and the benefits will be reaped later.
Obviously I would rather win the Europa League but that won't happen, and financially and in terms of seeding for future competitions dropping down is more beneficial and would give us a better chance of competing at a higher level in future seasons with the potential extra money from going further.
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Post by conscription »

Wachtwoord wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 01:19 With EL and Conference league it's just irrational to try to win. That's a terrible situation created by the UEFA.
Lubomir25 wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 01:24 You are better finishing 3rd in the EL than 2nd as well due to the standard of teams you play to make the last 16. The set up is stupid
If you guys are genuine then go on and make a fortune with betting, maybe even with bets like low amount of total goals scored :degsmile:
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Post by amirbachar »

conscription wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 07:23
Wachtwoord wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 01:19 With EL and Conference league it's just irrational to try to win. That's a terrible situation created by the UEFA.
Lubomir25 wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 01:24 You are better finishing 3rd in the EL than 2nd as well due to the standard of teams you play to make the last 16. The set up is stupid
If you guys are genuine then go on and make a fortune with betting, maybe even with bets like low amount of total goals scored :degsmile:
Just because it's irrational to win doesn't mean most teams will be rational and won't try to win...
conscription
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Post by conscription »

Surely if this is as simple as some claim it to be then at least some of the teams will be """rational""". This insane scheme doesn't need every team playing to lose to work.

In fact it even helps in a way, since by this hypothesis you could have ties where one team is trying to lose while the other one plays normally.
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Lubomir25
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Post by Lubomir25 »

conscription wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 09:45 Surely if this is as simple as some claim it to be then at least some of the teams will be """rational""". This insane scheme doesn't need every team playing to lose to work.

In fact it even helps in a way, since by this hypothesis you could have ties where one team is trying to lose while the other one plays normally.
There's no way any team will play to lose, but losing isn't as big a deal as it was before in the EL. Losing in the CL is different though because of the finances involved. 1 group stage appearance gets £30mil for a Scottish team without winning a match - if spent well that team will be a lot better the next year.
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Post by Wachtwoord »

Lubomir25 wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 11:51
conscription wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 09:45 Surely if this is as simple as some claim it to be then at least some of the teams will be """rational""". This insane scheme doesn't need every team playing to lose to work.

In fact it even helps in a way, since by this hypothesis you could have ties where one team is trying to lose while the other one plays normally.
There's no way any team will play to lose, but losing isn't as big a deal as it was before in the EL. Losing in the CL is different though because of the finances involved. 1 group stage appearance gets £30mil for a Scottish team without winning a match - if spent well that team will be a lot better the next year.
No way is a bit strong. But it's hard to coordinate safely (losing on purpose is illegal I believe plus what player likes to be known for playing a terrible match?).

Well yes in the EL playoff it's beneficial to lose with ONLY benefits (more money and likely more points, more European matches and more wins while prestige is nearly identifical)

With CL the benefits are mostly for the country: likely more points
But not to the club: Less money, less prestige

So e.g. for me as a supporter of Ajax I'm rooting for AZ to lose (and so should AZ, rationally speaking). I'm also rooting for PSV to lose (although less strongly, the difference in expected UEFA points is less profound in PSV's case than AZ's case) but as a PSV supporter I would be rooting for a win.

I actually don't like this situation at all. I always root for all teams from my country but now that would be completely irrational.
At least the situation in the Conference league qualifiers is not perverted like this.
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Post by Clockingbell »

Wachtwoord wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 14:06
Lubomir25 wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 11:51
conscription wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 09:45 Surely if this is as simple as some claim it to be then at least some of the teams will be """rational""". This insane scheme doesn't need every team playing to lose to work.

In fact it even helps in a way, since by this hypothesis you could have ties where one team is trying to lose while the other one plays normally.
There's no way any team will play to lose, but losing isn't as big a deal as it was before in the EL. Losing in the CL is different though because of the finances involved. 1 group stage appearance gets £30mil for a Scottish team without winning a match - if spent well that team will be a lot better the next year.
No way is a bit strong. But it's hard to coordinate safely (losing on purpose is illegal I believe plus what player likes to be known for playing a terrible match?).

Well yes in the EL playoff it's beneficial to lose with ONLY benefits (more money and likely more points, more European matches and more wins while prestige is nearly identifical)

With CL the benefits are mostly for the country: likely more points
But not to the club: Less money, less prestige

So e.g. for me as a supporter of Ajax I'm rooting for AZ to lose (and so should AZ, rationally speaking). I'm also rooting for PSV to lose (although less strongly, the difference in expected UEFA points is less profound in PSV's case than AZ's case) but as a PSV supporter I would be rooting for a win.

I actually don't like this situation at all. I always root for all teams from my country but now that would be completely irrational.
At least the situation in the Conference league qualifiers is not perverted like this.
As a PSV supporter, I root for them of course, but as a Dutchman, I also hope for the Dutch teams to win. You never know where it ends. And I also hope that a representative of the Netherlands plays in every league, because then we get a share of every marketpool, which benefits all.
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Post by conscription »

Wachtwoord wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 14:06 more money
Where are you even getting these numbers from? I get the fixed UEFA handouts, but there's stuff like the ticket sales, the increased/decreased popularity of the club due to prestige and so much more factors including hidden fees that you can only vaguely estimate.
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Post by rpo.castro »

The ugly truth about play off and group stage: every team tries to get eliminated and move to the lower competition. So DZG was the best team yesterday.they secure what's best.

Get the head out of this bubble. Clubs (owners, managers, players, supporters) want to win, want to play against the best in best competition possible. Nobody cares about rankings or coefficients. No one will exchange a shot of playing CL for a chance to make to EL QF or so.

Do you really know anyone that prefers to stay in a lower position, with lower paycheck, just because they can be the employee of the month while in a better job they would be one among others?
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Post by Wachtwoord »

conscription wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 16:29
Wachtwoord wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 14:06 more money
Where are you even getting these numbers from? I get the fixed UEFA handouts, but there's stuff like the ticket sales, the increased/decreased popularity of the club due to prestige and so much more factors including hidden fees that you can only vaguely estimate.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SwissRamble/ ... 5889192962
Each of the clubs in the Europa League group stage get €3.63m plus €630k for a win and €210k for a draw. Additional prize money: win group €1.1m (runners-up €550k), knockout round €500k, last 16 €1.2m, quarter-final €1.8m, semi-final €2.8m, final €4.6m & winners €8.6m.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SwissRamble/ ... 5376712704
Each of the 32 clubs in the Europa Conference group stage get €2.94m plus €500k for a win and €166k for a draw. Additional prize money: win group €650k (runners-up €325k), knockout round €300k, last 16 €600k, quarter-final €1m, semi-final €2m, final €3m & winners €5m.
Try to play either and you'll win more money in Conference league than Europa league.

For example (as a projection for AZ who would be pot 1 in Conference league and pot 3 in EL)
Europa league 2 wins and a 3rd place will yield: 3.63M+630k*2+300k (and continuation in Conference league in the last 16) = 5.19M
Conference league 6 wins and group win: 2.94 + 500k*6 + 650k (and continuation in Conference league in the last 16) = 6.59M

And my argument that 6 wins in the conference league is easier than 2 wins and a second place in the EL AND surviving the extra "knock out round" that Conference league group winners skip (and receive 27% more money)
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Post by kurt »

Lubomir25 wrote: Tue Aug 17, 2021 18:11
conscription wrote: Tue Aug 17, 2021 17:15 Here are the projected pots if all the bookies favorites win.
This information is really good to use to see how many favorites need to lose in order for your team to be in the desired pot. Basically you'll know who to root for.

CL: Same as in https://kassiesa.net/uefa/seedcl2021.html except
Ludogorets, Shakhtar, Benfica don't qualify
Besiktas, Dinamo Kiev go up to pot 3
PSV, Monaco and Malmo - pot 4

EL
1
Shakhtar 79
Lyon 76
Napoli 74
Benfica 58
Bayer 57
Lazio 44
Slavia 43.5
Olympiakos 43

2
Braga 35
Eintracht 33
RedStar 32.5
Leicester 32
Rangers 31.25
Lokomotiv 31
Genk 30
Marseille 28

3
Ludogorets 28
AZ 21.5
WestHam 20.113
Sociedad 19.571
Betis 19.571
Fenerbahce 19.5
Spartak 18.5
Sparta 17.5

4
Rapid 17
Galatasaray 17
Sheriff 14.5
Midtjylland 13.5
Ferencvaros 13.5
Antwerp 10.5
Sturm 7.165
Brondby 7

ECL
1
Roma 90
Tottenham 88
Basel 49
Copenhagen 43.5
Celtic 34
Viktoria 33.5
Gent 26.5
Anderlecht 25

2
LASK 21
Feyenoord 21
MTelAviv 20.5
PAOK 20
Rennais 19
Partizan 18
HBeerSheva 17.5
Cluj 16.5

3
Legia 16.5
Zorya 15
UBerlin 14.714
Aberdeen 7.5
Slovan 7.5
Jablonec 7
Alashkert 6.5
Kairat 6

4
Randers 5.575
Omonia 5.55
Riga 5.5
HJK 5.5
MHaifa 4.875
Shamrock 4.75
Bodo/Glimt 4.2
Mura 3
AZ are favourites to Celtic and Aberdeen are favourites to Qarabag? Interesting. I think the AZ v Celtic will be close but I don't know that AZ have done enough recently to gain that tag and same with Aberdeen.
I admit teams form pot 4 are very weak.

but you can still have a bad draw like :

Tottenham, Stade Rennes, Unio Berlin, Maccabi Haifa
The same level as Europe league and only 2 teams go through.
But if the draw is a little fair for all groups and not a single group of death.
I think a lot of teams from pot 1 and pot 2 go to next round. 80 % ( 13 teams of 16 teams i predict )
In europe league the percentage will be lower, but 3 teams of 4 go through.


chances of a team pot 4 conference league to go to next round : 0,00000 %
chances of a team pot 3 conference league to go to next round : 25 % ( 2 teams of 8 teams )
chances of a team pot 4 europe league to go to next round : 25 %
chances of a team pot 3 europe league to go to next round : 75 %

so conclusion for me : better to play in europe league , less points but more chances for going to next round
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