UEFA Seeding & Qualification based on ClubElo Values - Updates & Feedback

including formats, draws, seedings, etc.
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soyderedstarbelgrade
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Post by soyderedstarbelgrade »

eye wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 02:46
soyderedstarbelgrade wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 00:56
eye wrote: Thu Sep 08, 2022 23:31


You can try mine. It is working since end of May. Here is the topic of it
viewtopic.php?t=5842
I struggle to navigate it. I only see the spreadsheet for the current season. Where is for the next one?
It is few posts later. Here is the link https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
Oh, thanks. I was lazy to search for it. Crazy to see Novi Pazar in UCL GS, they even host Zvezda on Sunday...
Volim je do ludila
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Firnen
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Post by Firnen »

@eye did you lock the spreadsheet?

It shows "Access denied" now.
Squid
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Post by Squid »

For Kosovo you have Prishtina to qualify for European competition - they do no have a UEFA license this year, therefore the four teams from Kosovo will be:

Drita
Ballkani
Gjilani
Llapi
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Fotcalc
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Post by Fotcalc »

I was interested to find out what the probabilty of the UECL TH spot being unused is.

According to the calculatoions I did (mostly based on data from FiveThirtyEight), the probability of an unused UECL TH spot seems to be around 25%.
Teymur
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Post by Teymur »

Fotcalc wrote: Mon Nov 14, 2022 15:48 I was interested to find out what the probabilty of the UECL TH spot being unused is.

According to the calculatoions I did (mostly based on data from FiveThirtyEight), the probability of an unused UECL TH spot seems to be around 25%.
If UECL TH is not used. (reason if UECL TH qualifies for UCH group stage from their domestic league)

11 Serbian champions xxxxx from IV-classification - group,
13 Belgian champions xxxxx from classification III to classification IV
15 Greek champions xxxxx from classification II to classification III
18 Danish champions xxxxx from classification I to classification II
19 Croatian champions xxxxx will be promoted from I classification to II classification.
In the ECoL, a club from the II division qualifies from the III classification without an opponent.

If Russia is also punished by then, then it will be like this:

12 Ukrainian champions xxxxx from IV-classification - group,
14 Swiss champions xxxxx from III classification to IV classification
16 Czech champions xxxxx from classification II to classification III
20 Turkish champions xxxxx from I classification to II classification
21 Cypriot champions xxxxx will be promoted from I classification to II classification.
In the ECoL, two clubs from the 2nd division qualified for the 3rd classification without a rival.
vkgz
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Post by vkgz »

24/25 ?
..
Stadion
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Post by Stadion »

LINK TO SPREADSHEET: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... XcSfrTFvk/


Hi everyone,

I've decided to revive this spreadsheet for one purpose: simulating the qualification rounds using ClubElo values of all clubs.

- Access list and assumptions around what clubs start where are the same as @eye uses for his excellent spreadsheet

- Draw logic is the same as suggested by @amirbachar up-thread. Generally speaking, if a club on either side of the seeding line has a higher Elo than a majority of the clubs on the other side of the seeding line, it will progress to the next round. Or, if a seeded club has a lower Elo than the majority of the unseeded clubs, it will be replaced by (drawn against and lose) the club with the highest Elo on the unseeded side.

- To elaborate more on the previous point on draw logic with a couple of examples:
- In CLQ2, all seeded clubs are expected to progress except Vikingur, because it has a higher Elo value than only 3 clubs on the unseeded side. HJK also has a 'low' Elo value (in fact lower than 5 clubs on the unseeded side), but its Elo is still higher than the majority of the unseeds. Hence statistically it's more likely to be drawn against a team with a lower Elo. Hajduk on the unseeded side has a higher Elo than 7 of the seeded clubs, hence will take Vikingur's spot ("be drawn against them and win") and progress to CLQ3.
- In CLQ3, all seeded clubs except Slovan have a higher Elo than all unseeded clubs, and hence will progress. However ALL unseeded clubs except HJK have a higher Elo than Slovan. Hajduk has the highest Elo which is used as a tiebreaker, and Hajduk progresses (by being 'drawn' against Slovan and winning).

- Clubs in bold are projected to progress to the next qualifying round. I'm showing Elo values instead of coefficients throughout the qualifying rounds, but coefficients in the league phase. Though clubs are always sorted by coefficient unless otherwise stated (e.g. in rounds where there is no seeding)

- The spreadsheet does NOT update automatically -- it takes me a couple of seconds to update it manually, and I plan on doing so frequently. In the meantime I'll try to work out of way to automate it.

- The "ClubElo Sim GS Forecast" tab shows how many guaranteed and forecasted (based on the spreadsheet methodology) league phase spots each league has.

Keen to hear any feedback, and thanks to @eye for doing a lot of the legwork here.


LINK TO SPREADSHEET: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... XcSfrTFvk/
Last edited by Stadion on Wed Jan 24, 2024 08:41, edited 2 times in total.
Stadion
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Post by Stadion »

vkgz wrote: Sat Dec 02, 2023 21:0424/25 ?
See above!
Stadion
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Post by Stadion »

Question -- are opponent coefficients inherited from EL into ECL when a team drops down? E.g. if Elfsborg are defeated by Dinamo in ELQ2, do they take Dinamo's 48.000 coefficient with them into ECLQ3?
eye
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Post by eye »

Stadion wrote: Wed Jan 24, 2024 09:24 Question -- are opponent coefficients inherited from EL into ECL when a team drops down? E.g. if Elfsborg are defeated by Dinamo in ELQ2, do they take Dinamo's 48.000 coefficient with them into ECLQ3?
At every draw when we have a winner or looser of a pair from previous round the pair gets the coefficient of the club that has higher. So in your example if we have Dinamo vs Elfsborg at EL-Q2 then Dinamo's coefficient will be used in both draws of 3rd round that involves this pair (EL-Q3, ECL-Q3). Of course with the assumtion that this will not change but it is unlikely to change.

Excellent work by the way. I saw the spreadsheet a bit ago and noticed some N/A for a while but now it is ok. I don't know if these N/A appeared because you were changing something or due to other reason but in any case it is better for you to know it so you can fix it if needed.
amirbachar
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Post by amirbachar »

Stadion wrote: Wed Jan 24, 2024 08:22 LINK TO SPREADSHEET: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... XcSfrTFvk/


Hi everyone,

I've decided to revive this spreadsheet for one purpose: simulating the qualification rounds using ClubElo values of all clubs.

- Access list and assumptions around what clubs start where are the same as @eye uses for his excellent spreadsheet

- Draw logic is the same as suggested by @amirbachar up-thread. Generally speaking, if a club on either side of the seeding line has a higher Elo than a majority of the clubs on the other side of the seeding line, it will progress to the next round. Or, if a seeded club has a lower Elo than the majority of the unseeded clubs, it will be replaced by (drawn against and lose) the club with the highest Elo on the unseeded side.

- To elaborate more on the previous point on draw logic with a couple of examples:
- In CLQ2, all seeded clubs are expected to progress except Vikingur, because it has a higher Elo value than only 3 clubs on the unseeded side. HJK also has a 'low' Elo value (in fact lower than 5 clubs on the unseeded side), but its Elo is still higher than the majority of the unseeds. Hence statistically it's more likely to be drawn against a team with a lower Elo. Hajduk on the unseeded side has a higher Elo than 7 of the seeded clubs, hence will take Vikingur's spot ("be drawn against them and win") and progress to CLQ3.
- In CLQ3, all seeded clubs except Slovan have a higher Elo than all unseeded clubs, and hence will progress. However ALL unseeded clubs except HJK have a higher Elo than Slovan. Hajduk has the highest Elo which is used as a tiebreaker, and Hajduk progresses (by being 'drawn' against Slovan and winning).

- Clubs in bold are projected to progress to the next qualifying round. I'm showing Elo values instead of coefficients throughout the qualifying rounds, but coefficients in the league phase. Though clubs are always sorted by coefficient unless otherwise stated (e.g. in rounds where there is no seeding)

- The spreadsheet does NOT update automatically -- it takes me a couple of seconds to update it manually, and I plan on doing so frequently. In the meantime I'll try to work out of way to automate it.

- The "ClubElo Sim GS Forecast" tab shows how many guaranteed and forecasted (based on the spreadsheet methodology) league phase spots each league has.

Keen to hear any feedback, and thanks to @eye for doing a lot of the legwork here.


LINK TO SPREADSHEET: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... XcSfrTFvk/
That's amazing, thank you very much!
Stadion
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Post by Stadion »

The spreadsheet has now been updated to reflect the changes as reported by @dnina10 regarding losers taking the lower coefficient of the pair in the following rounds:

NCQ2 -> ELQ3
CHQ3 -> ELPO

ELQ1 -> ECLQ2
ELQ2 -> ECLQ3
ELQ3 -> ECLPO

Draw logic remains the same as stated in my previous post.

If you do spot any errors -- please let me know!
Stadion
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Post by Stadion »

[Update]

I've updated the League Phase Forecast tab to indicate which tournaments the national associations are forecasted to send their clubs to (using Elo to determine who progresses through the qualifying rounds of course). This makes it easy to visualise:

- How many clubs a national association is forecasted to have in the league phases
- The portion of a national association's total participating clubs that will play in the league phases (%forecasted tab)
- [NEW] Which tournaments those clubs will participate in

E.g. based on this forecast and current league standings, Denmark (all 4 clubs forecasted to league phase), Greece (also all 4) and Poland (3 out of 4, all in the ECL) have an opportunity for a smashing season in Europe. Conversely, Switzerland is forecasted to send only 1 out of 5 teams to the league phase.

Image
amirbachar
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Post by amirbachar »

Stadion wrote: Thu Feb 01, 2024 04:04 [Update]

I've updated the League Phase Forecast tab to indicate which tournaments the national associations are forecasted to send their clubs to (using Elo to determine who progresses through the qualifying rounds of course). This makes it easy to visualise:

- How many clubs a national association is forecasted to have in the league phases
- The portion of a national association's total participating clubs that will play in the league phases (%forecasted tab)
- [NEW] Which tournaments those clubs will participate in

E.g. based on this forecast and current league standings, Denmark (all 4 clubs forecasted to league phase), Greece (also all 4) and Poland (3 out of 4, all in the ECL) have an opportunity for a smashing season in Europe. Conversely, Switzerland is forecasted to send only 1 out of 5 teams to the league phase.

Image
Also Israel which at the moment starts from 11th place
Stadion
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Post by Stadion »

amirbachar wrote: Thu Feb 01, 2024 20:31
Stadion wrote: Thu Feb 01, 2024 04:04 [Update]

I've updated the League Phase Forecast tab to indicate which tournaments the national associations are forecasted to send their clubs to (using Elo to determine who progresses through the qualifying rounds of course). This makes it easy to visualise:

- How many clubs a national association is forecasted to have in the league phases
- The portion of a national association's total participating clubs that will play in the league phases (%forecasted tab)
- [NEW] Which tournaments those clubs will participate in

E.g. based on this forecast and current league standings, Denmark (all 4 clubs forecasted to league phase), Greece (also all 4) and Poland (3 out of 4, all in the ECL) have an opportunity for a smashing season in Europe. Conversely, Switzerland is forecasted to send only 1 out of 5 teams to the league phase.

Image
Also Israel which at the moment starts from 11th place
Absolutely! Although projected to have 2x teams in EL against tougher opposition BUT with the opportunity to score more points thanks to 8 matches vs 6. Also with 3 clubs that have more European experience than the Polish clubs.
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