UEFA Seeding & Qualification based on ClubElo Values - Updates & Feedback

including formats, draws, seedings, etc.
Stadion
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Post by Stadion »

amirbachar wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 23:31
Stadion wrote: Thu May 09, 2024 11:48 Spreadsheet updated with the same rebalancing logic as @eye's excellent spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =217607255
I think it's broken now.
Yep, it has been fixed again. Some issue with the import of eye's source sheets.

Once the qualifying rounds have kicked off I'll update the sheets based on the draws.
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og2002gr
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Post by og2002gr »

Stadion wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 12:23
amirbachar wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 23:31
Stadion wrote: Thu May 09, 2024 11:48 Spreadsheet updated with the same rebalancing logic as @eye's excellent spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =217607255
I think it's broken now.
Yep, it has been fixed again. Some issue with the import of eye's source sheets.

Once the qualifying rounds have kicked off I'll update the sheets based on the draws.
I have noticed that taking into account ELO Values Panathinaikos are projected to reach EL LP. Rules are not applied there.
I don't believe draw will be so kind, but since such projections are free, why not?
fewer spots :arrow: weaker leagues :arrow: fewer spots :arrow: weaker leagues :arrow: fewer spots :arrow: weaker leagues

http://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum2/viewtop ... 52#p359852
Stadion
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Post by Stadion »

og2002gr wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 13:02
Stadion wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 12:23
amirbachar wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 23:31

I think it's broken now.
Yep, it has been fixed again. Some issue with the import of eye's source sheets.

Once the qualifying rounds have kicked off I'll update the sheets based on the draws.
I have noticed that taking into account ELO Values Panathinaikos are projected to reach EL LP. Rules are not applied there.
I don't believe draw will be so kind, but since such projections are free, why not?
"Unfortunately" the unseeded lot are very weak, so even the weakest seeded team is projected to advance as their Elo is higher than 7 out of 9 unseeds. But then again, these are just projections.

On a positive note, all 4 Greek clubs are projected to reach a league phase. Could be a massive year for Greece.
amirbachar
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Post by amirbachar »

Stadion wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 12:23
amirbachar wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 23:31
Stadion wrote: Thu May 09, 2024 11:48 Spreadsheet updated with the same rebalancing logic as @eye's excellent spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =217607255
Thank you very much!
I think it's broken now.
Yep, it has been fixed again. Some issue with the import of eye's source sheets.

Once the qualifying rounds have kicked off I'll update the sheets based on the draws.
belfootstats
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Joined: Fri Oct 14, 2022 20:49

Post by belfootstats »

Stadion wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 12:23
amirbachar wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 23:31
Stadion wrote: Thu May 09, 2024 11:48 Spreadsheet updated with the same rebalancing logic as @eye's excellent spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =217607255
I think it's broken now.
Yep, it has been fixed again. Some issue with the import of eye's source sheets.

Once the qualifying rounds have kicked off I'll update the sheets based on the draws.
Are you planning to update the projections as the qualifiers progress?
Stadion
Posts: 389
Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2018 16:13

Post by Stadion »

belfootstats wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 00:06
Stadion wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 12:23
amirbachar wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 23:31

I think it's broken now.
Yep, it has been fixed again. Some issue with the import of eye's source sheets.

Once the qualifying rounds have kicked off I'll update the sheets based on the draws.
Are you planning to update the projections as the qualifiers progress?
Yes i will aim for that
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og2002gr
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Location: Greece

Post by og2002gr »

Stadion wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 14:13
og2002gr wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 13:02
Stadion wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 12:23
Yep, it has been fixed again. Some issue with the import of eye's source sheets.

Once the qualifying rounds have kicked off I'll update the sheets based on the draws.
I have noticed that taking into account ELO Values Panathinaikos are projected to reach EL LP. Rules are not applied there.
I don't believe draw will be so kind, but since such projections are free, why not?
"Unfortunately" the unseeded lot are very weak, so even the weakest seeded team is projected to advance as their Elo is higher than 7 out of 9 unseeds. But then again, these are just projections.

On a positive note, all 4 Greek clubs are projected to reach a league phase. Could be a massive year for Greece.
In your projection sheet, the rule "higher ELO qualifies" is applied in EL Q1 (Elfsborg over Tobol), in EL Q3 (Cercle Brugge over Partizan) and EL PO (Anderlecht over Slovan Bratislava), but not in EL Q2 (unseeded Panathinaikos presented with higher ELO than 6/9 seeded teams).
fewer spots :arrow: weaker leagues :arrow: fewer spots :arrow: weaker leagues :arrow: fewer spots :arrow: weaker leagues

http://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum2/viewtop ... 52#p359852
Stadion
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Post by Stadion »

og2002gr wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 11:46
Stadion wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 14:13
og2002gr wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 13:02 I have noticed that taking into account ELO Values Panathinaikos are projected to reach EL LP. Rules are not applied there.
I don't believe draw will be so kind, but since such projections are free, why not?
"Unfortunately" the unseeded lot are very weak, so even the weakest seeded team is projected to advance as their Elo is higher than 7 out of 9 unseeds. But then again, these are just projections.

On a positive note, all 4 Greek clubs are projected to reach a league phase. Could be a massive year for Greece.
In your projection sheet, the rule "higher ELO qualifies" is applied in EL Q1 (Elfsborg over Tobol), in EL Q3 (Cercle Brugge over Partizan) and EL PO (Anderlecht over Slovan Bratislava), but not in EL Q2 (unseeded Panathinaikos presented with higher ELO than 6/9 seeded teams).
That's not how the logic of the spreadsheet works though.

Q1:
Tobol has a lower Elo than the majority of unseeds, hence it will statistically be drawn against a stronger team and be eliminated. The strongest of the unseeded teams will be picked to fill its spot and advance to the next round.

Q2:
Even the weakest seeded team (Rijeka) has a higher Elo than the majority of unseeds, hence it will statistically be drawn against a weaker team and advance. There is no empty spot for Panathinaikos to fill in this case, as all seeded teams are statistically expected to advance due to how weak the unseeded teams are in general.

For Q3 (Partizan) and PO (Slovan), the same applies as in Q1.
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og2002gr
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Post by og2002gr »

Makes sense. Understood!
fewer spots :arrow: weaker leagues :arrow: fewer spots :arrow: weaker leagues :arrow: fewer spots :arrow: weaker leagues

http://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum2/viewtop ... 52#p359852
belfootstats
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Post by belfootstats »

Stadion wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 00:28
belfootstats wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 00:06
Stadion wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 12:23
Yep, it has been fixed again. Some issue with the import of eye's source sheets.

Once the qualifying rounds have kicked off I'll update the sheets based on the draws.
Are you planning to update the projections as the qualifiers progress?
Yes i will aim for that
Fantastic. Your spreadsheet is amazing. Use of ELO makes it stand out. What about the UEFA money projections? Bringing those back as well? I’d think you have all the info to automatize the calculations (5-10y coefficient, who gets to which LS, etc)
nikosextra
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Post by nikosextra »

I think the spreadsheet broke, or am I just using the wrong link?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
Stadion
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Post by Stadion »

nikosextra wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 16:42 I think the spreadsheet broke, or am I just using the wrong link?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
Thanks, It's been fixed, but the ClubElo is causing some issues at the moment as some of the data for certain leagues isn't available - e.g. Serbia at the moment. Perhaps they're doing some post-season calibrations or something.
nikosextra
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Post by nikosextra »

Oh wow, I didn't realize that the spreadsheet would be updated based on the draws. I see now that the predicted non-qualified seeded teams of the first round in UCL are beaten by the DRAWN unseeded teams and they in turn get their coefficient for the next round. That's impressive work! :applause:

I am working on a more extensive simulation of the UEFA competitions (for personal fun, but could be interesting to share later) and I think using the ELO for match result simulation would be fun. Are you fetching the clubs' ELO by scraping the clubelo.com website or is there a better method? Same question for the coefficients :)
elkjiaer is back
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Post by elkjiaer is back »

nikosextra wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2024 16:00 Oh wow, I didn't realize that the spreadsheet would be updated based on the draws. I see now that the predicted non-qualified seeded teams of the first round in UCL are beaten by the DRAWN unseeded teams and they in turn get their coefficient for the next round. That's impressive work! :applause:

I am working on a more extensive simulation of the UEFA competitions (for personal fun, but could be interesting to share later) and I think using the ELO for match result simulation would be fun. Are you fetching the clubs' ELO by scraping the clubelo.com website or is there a better method? Same question for the coefficients :)
I import both Elo ratings and Uefa Coefficients directly into excel using Power Query and it does it automatically every time I open the file . For Clubelo you do not need to scrape anything , just use http://www.clubelo.com/API
Stadion
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Post by Stadion »

nikosextra wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2024 16:00 Oh wow, I didn't realize that the spreadsheet would be updated based on the draws. I see now that the predicted non-qualified seeded teams of the first round in UCL are beaten by the DRAWN unseeded teams and they in turn get their coefficient for the next round. That's impressive work! :applause:

I am working on a more extensive simulation of the UEFA competitions (for personal fun, but could be interesting to share later) and I think using the ELO for match result simulation would be fun. Are you fetching the clubs' ELO by scraping the clubelo.com website or is there a better method? Same question for the coefficients :)
Thanks! I've moved to a 'live' version now that the first draw has taken place, but it means I have to manually update the sheets to match the draws. I don't have a reliable way of automating this even though I'm sure it's very possible. Though the sheet will still pick the winner of each pair automatically based on Elo values and then assign coefficients in case they need to be inherited etc.

Elo and coefficients are scraped to Google Sheets. My method is pretty basic and I know there are more reliable ways to do it.
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