Battle for important ranking positions 2024-25

including formats, draws, seedings, etc.
EarlofBug
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Post by EarlofBug »

dnina10 wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 13:33
seso wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 13:31
mitsaras wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 13:08
I hope that all will be strong. But the draws are extremely important for the next season..
Let's hope for:
Cercle Brugge vs Pana
PAOK vs TNS
AEK vs Cliftonville
Already wanting Cercle, eh? :grin1:

Wouldn't you want Sheriff or even Hapoel Be'er Sheva/Maribor instead?😁
I would like to get Maribor, Rijeka, Wien, Sheriff or Molde for Maccabi Petach Tikva (in EL Q2).
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seso
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Post by seso »

EarlofBug wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 15:05
dnina10 wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 13:33
seso wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 13:31

Let's hope for:
Cercle Brugge vs Pana
PAOK vs TNS
AEK vs Cliftonville
Already wanting Cercle, eh? :grin1:

Wouldn't you want Sheriff or even Hapoel Be'er Sheva/Maribor instead?😁
I would like to get Maribor, Rijeka, Wien, Sheriff or Molde for Maccabi Petach Tikva (in EL Q2).
Yes, now that the seeded and unseeded clubs are 'known', I would go with 'winner of the tie involving Maribor' or Cercle Brugge.
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Post by TommyChat »

seso wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 15:16
EarlofBug wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 15:05
dnina10 wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 13:33

Already wanting Cercle, eh? :grin1:

Wouldn't you want Sheriff or even Hapoel Be'er Sheva/Maribor instead?😁
I would like to get Maribor, Rijeka, Wien, Sheriff or Molde for Maccabi Petach Tikva (in EL Q2).
Yes, now that the seeded and unseeded clubs are 'known', I would go with 'winner of the tie involving Maribor' or Cercle Brugge.
If Dortmund win CL, 4 more clubs (Wisla, Pafos, Elfsborg and Paks) will move from Q1 to Q2 so there will be 20 instead of 18 clubs in Q2 and "winner of tie involving Tobol" will also be seeded.
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seso
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Post by seso »

TommyChat wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 16:27
seso wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 15:16
EarlofBug wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 15:05

I would like to get Maribor, Rijeka, Wien, Sheriff or Molde for Maccabi Petach Tikva (in EL Q2).
Yes, now that the seeded and unseeded clubs are 'known', I would go with 'winner of the tie involving Maribor' or Cercle Brugge.
If Dortmund win CL, 4 more clubs (Wisla, Pafos, Elfsborg and Paks) will move from Q1 to Q2 so there will be 20 instead of 18 clubs in Q2 and "winner of tie involving Tobol" will also be seeded.
That's why I wrote 'known' in inverted commas.
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seso
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Post by seso »

We're just 18 days away from the european cup draws!! :banana:
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Post by babaluj1 »

fabiomh wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 17:54
babaluj1 wrote: Thu May 16, 2024 05:37 It is too early to make any predictions until the qualifiers are played. What can be commented on is only the Top 5 leagues, which will surely have at least 5 or 6 or 7 clubs in the LP.
Italy is again the main favorite, regardless of whether they played with 7, 8, 9 or 10 clubs. Simply put, Serie A has a very even league and enough quality clubs in the middle of the table.
This is not the case with Germany, although they will have 5 very strong clubs in CL, their weaker clubs from 6th to 8th place could be too heavy a weight. This is where the English will have the opportunity to gain an advantage and get back into the Top 2. The same is true for Spain and France and the others, but with somewhat smaller chances.
If all the clubs of the Top 5 countries make it to the Conference Play Off, I would give Italy about 60%, England about 40%, Germany and Spain about 35%, France 15% and all the others together 15% chances. :wink_anim:
Well, the fact that Italy went well in the last two seasons, does not mean that it will go well again.
You are right in your analysis, when you tell that the quality of the middle clubs is good.
But what will happen in the 24/25 is uncertain: too many Italian clubs will change their coach (Juventus, Milan, Bologna, Lazio, maybe Fiorentina, currently Gasperini seem to remain in Bergamo, but not 100% sure).
It is easy to predict that not everything will go right.
I am afraid that Bologna in CL, without Thiago Motta, might have a poor performance.
All 5 Italian clubs in the CL are strong enough to make it to the Top 16. :clapping: Roma is the main favorite in the EL, and Lazio will also take a lot of points. Fiorentina is again among the main favorites in CO.
Although the differences in quality between the Top 4 leagues are small, Serie A seems to be the strongest at the moment. :applause: Even from Inter, who failed this season, it is realistic to expect at least a semi-final. Maybe Bologna fails, but Juve, Milan, Atalanta, all of them can go far in the CL. :banana:
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offside
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Post by offside »

babaluj1 wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 21:00All 5 Italian clubs in the CL are strong enough to make it to the Top 16. :clapping:
All five are strong enough to have a chance to make it, maybe.

Internazionale, AC Milan, Juventus, and Atalanta, all have a realistic chance to reach the top 16 in CL, but that all of them will make it it is not so easy to achieve: do you remember the elimination of AC Milan in this season, in a group with Borussia Dortmund, Paris SG, and Newcastle? In a similar group pretty much any club has a chance to fail.
babaluj1 wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 21:00Roma is the main favorite in the EL, and Lazio will also take a lot of points.
Yes, both Roman sides missed the CL qualification, so they will play in EL: on paper they are strong, but there is competition also in EL: I don't see AS Roma nor Lazio being more favorite than Manchester United, for example. Of course, a lot will also depend on motivations.
babaluj1 wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 21:00Fiorentina is again among the main favorites in CO.
Of course, after two consecutive finals lost! :grin1:

On parer, in ECL there are four favorites: the four clubs from England, Spain, Italy and Germany. But every year there are also a few surprising club from lower ranked league being protagonists: Olympiacos this season eliminated, besides Fiorentina, also a club which was a main protagonist this season in Premiership.

The ECL is the most unpredictable of the three Uefa competitions.
babaluj1 wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 21:00Although the differences in quality between the Top 4 leagues are small, Serie A seems to be the strongest at the moment. :applause:
The Serie A had a couple of very good seasons in Europe with all clubs pretty much qualifying to the KO phase in all three competitions, and reaching the final quite often, and this allowed Italy to earn lots of coefficient points: but the absolute best league in Europe still the English Premiership, followed by La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga , these last three pretty much on the same level.

Serie A was the strongest league in late '80, most of the '90, and perhaps in the early 2000. Now, especially in CL, the Premiership, La Liga and the Bundesliga are superior for quality and results. The Serie A has a quite competitive top 7-8 clubs, but at very top level the others are stronger.
babaluj1 wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 21:00Even from Inter, who failed this season, it is realistic to expect at least a semi-final. Maybe Bologna fails, but Juve, Milan, Atalanta, all of them can go far in the CL. :banana:
All of them could go far, but none of them is a favorite to win it all.

I wish the best to Atalanta in particular: I am happy for them that they won the EL in this season, eliminating two giants like Liverpool and Bayer Leverkusen, it should be a huge satisfaction for the city, the fans, the club.

And I wonder what they could have done in CL instead: we will see the next season, if they can repeat themselves on an higher level competition.

About Bologna instead, a lot will depend on who will stay, who will leave, and who will arrive in the summer: it is really unpredictable.

If you are reading all this, well, thanks for reading! :grin1:
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Post by Metallica1989 »

I would like to share my thoughts on why Ukraine has fallen so low in the table, if anyone is interested at all. I will highlight two main factors, external and internal

internal.... Dynamo Kyiv over the past 5 years has reduced its efficiency by approximately 70-75%, Shakhtar on average began to gain 25-30% than in the previous five-year plans...teams from 3rd to 5th places for three gained what now what 6-7 years ago, approximately the same small score, so their performances did not affect our fall in any way

external...since 2021, a third tournament has appeared, the Conference League, and this tournament is currently burying us... before 2021 there were 72 places in the Group stage, from 2021 - 96, and from 2024 - 108 teams.... but since 3-5 of us teams (and unfortunately Dynamo can also be included here in part) are a pitiful semblance, this gives us NOTHING, but our many competitors, whose teams with 3-5 are stronger and more even, gives a significant advantage

Here you can still talk about the fairness of accruing points and bonuses in three tournaments, but I don’t want to raise this topic, I hope you understood my main message

So 24.02.22 actually didn’t have much of an impact, we were already falling and would have continued to fall further
babaluj1
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Post by babaluj1 »

Here is the current Clubelo league rating, and the biggest winners and losers of the last 10 months, that is, this season.
1.ENG 1744 (-45)
2.ITA 1723 (+22)
3.GER 1704 (+12)
4.ESP 1696 (-4)
5.FRA 1660 (+30)
6.BEL 1520 (+19)
7.POR 1501 (-15)
8.DEN 1486 (+44)
9.NET 1484 (-31)
10.RUS 1467
11.TUR 1437 (-5)
12.SUI 1424 (-26)
13.AUT 1423 (-16)
14.CZE 1409 (+44)
15.GRE 1388 (+85)
16.NOR 1378 (+21)
17.POL 1378 (+5)
18.ISR 1352 (+9)
19.SCO 1350 (+20)
20.CRO 1345 (-36)
21.SWE 1317 (-43)
22.UKR 1315 (-35)
? SRB 1181 (-52)
By far the largest growth was seen in Greece +85, followed by the Czech Republic and Denmark +44, France +30, and Italy +22. :applause:
The biggest drop is in Serbia - 52, England -45, Sweden -43, Croatia -36 and Ukraine -35. :down: :down:
The growth and decline trends of individual leagues are visible here. A strong upward or downward trend is difficult to stop in one season. If the English play another season as bad as this one, they will drop to third place behind Italy and Germany. :dontknow:
However, the good news for England is that Italy and Germany will play next season with 8 clubs, therefore the average strength of their clubs will be somewhat weaker and this is an opportunity for England and Spain to return to the Top 2 of the strongest leagues according to Country coefficient 2024/ 25. :D
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Post by naaba »

Metallica1989 wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 18:33 external...since 2021, a third tournament has appeared, the Conference League, and this tournament is currently burying us... before 2021 there were 72 places in the Group stage, from 2021 - 96, and from 2024 - 108 teams.... but since 3-5 of us teams (and unfortunately Dynamo can also be included here in part) are a pitiful semblance, this gives us NOTHING, but our many competitors, whose teams with 3-5 are stronger and more even, gives a significant advantage

This is what helps Belgium to strongly hold the 8th place : homogeneity. No Belgian club can reach the level Shakhtar still had not long ago (15-12th at clubs ranking) but all Belgian top clubs have a level decent enough to survive European winter most of the time : Anderlecht, Antwerp, Club Brugge, Gent, Genk, Union Saint-Gilloise. Standard Liège before its fall would also do decent results. With 6 clubs to choose from and only 5 European spots, 90% of the time there is no minnow entering European cups. Bad luck though, next season Cercle Brugge will act as an intruder and very likely won't reach a league stage. Whereas Ukraine has many "Cercle Brugge" playing Europe. Even Portugal has a big problem behind Benfica/Porto/Sporting and Braga.
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Post by babaluj1 »

The main favorites to advance to the Top 16 CL according to the UEFA rating are in this order: Real, City, Bayern, PSG, Liverpool, Inter, Dortmund, Leipzig, Barca, Bayer, Atletico, Atalanta, Juve, Benfica, Arsenal and Brugge.
The main favorites to advance to the Top 16 CL according to the Clubelo rating are City, Real, Inter, Arsenal, Bayer, Liverpool, Bayern, Atalanta, Barca, PSG, Dortmund, Leipzig, Milan, Atletico, Juve and Stuttgart.
As we can see, almost the same clubs are the favorites to advance to the Top 16 CL, the difference is only in the two clubs Benfica and Brugge according to the UEFA rating or Milan and Stuttgart according to the Clubelo rating.
I would add a few more clubs that can squeeze into the Top 16 CL, the so-called favorites from the second plan. These are certainly Sporting, Bologna, Girona and PSV. Along with them, Aston Villa, Benfica, Feyenoord and Monaco have slightly less chances. :D
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seso
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Post by seso »

dnina10 wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 05:59
11th/12th, 13th/14th, 15th: Israel (4), Austria (5), Norway (4), Scotland (5), Switzerland (5), Denmark (4), Greece (4 or 5), Poland (4), Serbia (5), Croatia (4), Ukraine (5) - Time for everyone's favourite battle. I have 11 NAs mentioned, but how many of them will remain in this battle going into the LP is another matter. I can see Israel making the most of having just 4 teams in Europe next term. If MTA, MH, and HBS all make the LP, they will definitely be top 15, probably even better. Austria, Switzerland, Scotland, Serbia, Ukraine and possibly Greece will have 5 teams next season, which will make this a lot more challenging. Serbia and Ukraine will ideally need at least 4 teams in the LP to stand a reasonable shot, or 3 teams in at least the EL. Anything less than that will end their hopes before the real action begins. Denmark could be set for another big year, especially if FCK and FCM qualify for Europe. The former would be seeded throughout qualifying in any competition, while the latter would be seeded throughout ECL Q. That is quite important. I'm not expecting much from Poland nor Croatia, who'll likely drop out before the LP.
This is by far Israel's best Ranking position ever. Let's see how they will do this season.

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dnina10
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Post by dnina10 »

Over the last two weeks, I completed a 54-article series, previewing every single country involved in Europe next season, and all 236 teams involved. The link below will take you to a Word document, which has all the links to each article. Happy reading and let me know what you all think

https://1drv.ms/w/s!Av5EGqq140H70Ty78Yr ... 8?e=4FuSMJ
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offside
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Post by offside »

dnina10 wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2024 00:41 Over the last two weeks, I completed a 54-article series, previewing every single country involved in Europe next season, and all 236 teams involved. The link below will take you to a Word document, which has all the links to each article. Happy reading and let me know what you all think

https://1drv.ms/w/s!Av5EGqq140H70Ty78Yr ... 8?e=4FuSMJ
I checked out the article about Italy, accurate analysis as always. :up:
""" Italy should also be aiming for at least 20.000 points again. Due to the new formats and available coefficient points, around 22.000 would be a reasonable goal for the country. """
I think that the last season was a very positive season for the Serie A sides in Uefa competitions, no matter lacking clubs in 1/4 finals of CL. I know little about the new available coefficient points, but I think that 22.000 the next season would be an extraordinary result, not just reasonable.

Like you wrote in your article, the Italian sides have not the financial power of top English sides, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atlético Madrid, Bayer Munich, Paris SG, and so on; so, to score 22.000 I suppose you need again that all the Serie A clubs go past the GS, and perform well in spring, which is far from easy, with 8 clubs involved.

Can all together, Internazionale, AC Milan, Juventus, Atalanta and Bologna, qualify for the spring Uefa football after the CL GS?
I really wonder about Bologna chances, for example.

How many Serie A clubs will qualify to the 1/8 of CL this time?
There were three last year: Napoli, Lazio, Internazionale, which was an extremely positive result for Serie A in my opinion.

Will AS Roma and Lazio in the next season perform in Europa League as well as Atalanta, AS Roma, and AC Milan in the past season?

Will Fiorentina repeat the run to the ECL final?

All this together could happen again, of course, but it would be another very positive season for the Serie A sides in Uefa football.
""" Achieve that number, and a top two spot looks quite likely once again for Italian football. """
I think that the next season the top favorite to gain an extra CL spot is the English Premiership; the Serie A will at best fight with La Liga and the Bundesliga for the remaining top two spot, which is a goal possible rather than likely in my opinion.

Thanks for reading. :smile1:
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offside
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Post by offside »

Also, I have a question.

In this new CL GS format, with a single group of 36 clubs facing each other in 8 matches in a so called Swiss system, the top 8 clubs qualify directly for the 1/8 finals, while the 16 clubs ranked 9th to 24th face each other in a KO round to determinate the other 8 clubs qualified to the 1/8 of final.

Now, my question is, does this KO round before the 1/8 of finals award coefficient points?

And if so, do the top 8 clubs of the GS get extra bonus points for qualifying directly to the 1/8 of finals?

My doubt is about clubs finishing 9th to 24th in the CL GS having two extra KO matches to score coefficient points compared to clubs finishing 1st to 8th, which if not balanced someway would be kind of weird.
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