Battle for important ranking positions 2024-25

[dnina10]

We are at that time again where we can start a new thread on the battles for the 2024/25 season. I'll be doing a very thorough preview of each country ahead of the new season throughout the first half of June (even the ones that won't be involved in a battle in this season), so look out for that.

However, here are my early thoughts for each battle:

European Performance Spots: England (7 teams in Europe next season), Italy (8 or 9), Spain (7), Germany (8), France (7) - We have seen something of a revolution with Italian clubs in Europe these last two seasons. Will it continue in 2024/25? They'll have it more difficult with 8 clubs, something that hasn't happened since the UEFA Cup era. England as always will be expected to finish in the top 2. Spain did not look good in 2023/24, and that could easily continue into 2024/25. Germany will be an interesting watch as they have 8 teams in Europe for the 2nd time in 3 campaigns. They could spring another surprise, and could start with a pretty handy advantage regarding bonus points should Dortmund win the CL. France may have a say in this race. After all, they did have all their teams in the KO rounds of Europe this term and made things interesting. Depending on who qualifies for Europe, and which competition, it could be a pretty good year for France. Of course, the last two weeks of August will be important for this race to see if anyone does an Osasuna and get knocked out of the ECL PO.

5th, 6th, 7th: France (7), Netherlands (6), Portugal (5), Belgium (5) - I don't feel there will be much going on in any of these races next term. It really should end in the same order as written. Netherlands with 6 clubs for the first time in about a decade should be interesting. They'll almost surely have 5 teams in the LP, which I think will be enough for them to hold on to 6th. Belgium could make things interesting if they have all their teams in a LP for the 2nd year running, coupled with Vitoria Guimaraes getting knocked out in ECL Q again. Speaking of Portugal, them having 5 clubs in Europe again is an interesting situation, as now their points will be divided by 5 rather than 6. How much that will impact them remains to be seen.

9th: Turkey, Czechia - Both NAs will be back to having 5 clubs in Europe next term after having only 4 in 2023/24. This will suit Turkey as they will almost surely have their five strongest teams in Europe. I'm calling it now: they're going to have a very scary year in 2024/25 and will surely win this battle.They may even have an outside chance of top 2 depending on how qualifying goes. Nevertheless, they should win this race fairly easily. Czechia will almost surely have their big 3 in a LP, which is great. However, with 2 teams entering ECL Q2, it's unlikely they'll have any more than 3 clubs in a LP. While I don't expect them to do anything magical, they should be able to hold on to 10th without any serious challenge.

11th/12th, 13th/14th, 15th: Israel (4), Austria (5), Norway (4), Scotland (5), Switzerland (5), Denmark (4), Greece (4 or 5), Poland (4), Serbia (5), Croatia (4), Ukraine (5) - Time for everyone's favourite battle. I have 11 NAs mentioned, but how many of them will remain in this battle going into the LP is another matter. I can see Israel making the most of having just 4 teams in Europe next term. If MTA, MH, and HBS all make the LP, they will definitely be top 15, probably even better. Austria, Switzerland, Scotland, Serbia, Ukraine and possibly Greece will have 5 teams next season, which will make this a lot more challenging. Serbia and Ukraine will ideally need at least 4 teams in the LP to stand a reasonable shot, or 3 teams in at least the EL. Anything less than that will end their hopes before the real action begins. Denmark could be set for another big year, especially if FCK and FCM qualify for Europe. The former would be seeded throughout qualifying in any competition, while the latter would be seeded throughout ECL Q. That is quite important. I'm not expecting much from Poland nor Croatia, who'll likely drop out before the LP.

22nd: Hungary, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Sweden, Romania - Seven NAs fighting for almost surely 1 spot. It will be a matter of who can have multiple clubs in a LP. Slovakia managed that last term, while Sweden and Romania had disastrous terms. Azerbaijan had a wonderful year, while Bulgaria. Problem for both of those NAs is that only one team does all the work. Sweden and Romania could definitely have big years, and are probably the most likely to end up with multiple clubs in the LPs. Hungary and Cyprus are a coin toss I feel. Again, Hungary only has one team doing all the work, making it more challenging for them.

Skipping 29th for the 2nd year running as there once again won't be one.

33rd, 34th, 38th: Kosovo, Ireland, Finland, Faroe Islands, Iceland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Latvia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Malta, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Northern Ireland - The other fun battle, with up to 13 NAs in the running for a spot in the top 33-38. The aim should be simple: getting their CH into a LP. That decides a race like this one. Only two spots in the top 33 are up for grabs, and unless Vaduz has another LP showing, I think Kosovo will be good value for top 33. Who to join them is really tough tell. We have several summer leagues in the running for 33rd (up to 6), and with those 20 teams in-season during the qualifiers, that could work to their advantage. Of the 6 NAs listed that are currently outside of the top 38, Kazakhstan and Armenia could really in this race I feel. They are the most likely to have a team in the LP. Still, don't count out Lithuania nor Northern Ireland, the latter coming so close to having Linfield in the ECL GS 2 years ago. CL Q1 will be a dog fight for all these NAs, as getting past this round increases a LP appearance considerably. Keep this in mind.

Top 50: Luxembourg (4), North Macedonia (3), Georgia (4), Wales (4), Montenegro (3), Andorra (3), Belarus (4), Gibraltar (3) - We end with the race to avoid being in the bottom 5. Luxembourg and North Macedonia should be good, unless they lose all their teams at the first hurdle, in which they'll be in serious trouble. Of the current bottom 5 (excluding San Marino), I feel Andorra could have another great year, and, depending on the others around them, could sneak into 50th. Wales was terrible in 2023/24, but with Bala Town back to join Connah's Quay in ECL Q1, maybe they could get out of this. Belarus is really trapped here. Let's see if Dinamo Minsk can save them in CL Q1. Gibraltar will need another miracle from Lincoln Red Imps to save them, though they already have a fair bit of ground to gain.

[Bulgarian]

I am very much confused and out of the loop these days with all of the rebalancing etc i used to be on top of such stuff but its too much for me now. What does 22nd give as a benefit? I dont expect us to even be involved in the fight i am just curious.

[dnina10]

I am very much confused and out of the loop these days with all of the rebalancing etc i used to be on top of such stuff but its too much for me now. What does 22nd give as a benefit? I don't expect us to even be involved in the fight i am just curious.

Countries ranked 16-22 have their domestic champion start in CL Q2, which is quite the advantage to have. That requires just one win guarantees a spot in the league phase (formerly group stage), so it is quite the crucial advantage. Countries 23 and below, in principle, have their champions start in CL Q1, though rebalancing almost always takes place, with at least two clubs promoted to Q2

[Bulgarian]

I am very much confused and out of the loop these days with all of the rebalancing etc i used to be on top of such stuff but its too much for me now. What does 22nd give as a benefit? I don't expect us to even be involved in the fight i am just curious.

Countries ranked 16-22 have their domestic champion start in CL Q2, which is quite the advantage to have. That requires just one win guarantees a spot in the league phase (formerly group stage), so it is quite the crucial advantage. Countries 23 and below, in principle, have their champions start in CL Q1, though rebalancing almost always takes place, with at least two clubs promoted to Q2

Thank you. The rebalancing occurs if the TH is already qualified for the LP? Or is it a different criteria?

[dnina10]

I am very much confused and out of the loop these days with all of the rebalancing etc i used to be on top of such stuff but its too much for me now. What does 22nd give as a benefit? I don't expect us to even be involved in the fight i am just curious.

Countries ranked 16-22 have their domestic champion start in CL Q2, which is quite the advantage to have. That requires just one win guarantees a spot in the league phase (formerly group stage), so it is quite the crucial advantage. Countries 23 and below, in principle, have their champions start in CL Q1, though rebalancing almost always takes place, with at least two clubs promoted to Q2

Thank you. The rebalancing occurs if the TH is already qualified for the LP? Or is it a different criteria?

Yes, that continues to be the case. Rebalancing also occurs for when a country is banned (as is the case with Russia), but also based on the two European Performance Spots. These go to the two best performing countries from the previous season only (for this season, those are Italy and Germany). They earn another CL LP spot, while maintaining their EL and ECL spots (so another European spot altogether).

One more thing to note for you: TH rebalancing has two different methods of rebalancing now: direct rebalancing and indirect rebalancing. The former is where five-year club coefficient is used to determine the team benefitting from rebalancing, while the latter is what you're already used to (by Access List). Do note that direct rebalancing only occurs in the CL (via the CL and/or EL THs) and in the EL (via ECL TH). All other rebalancing is indirect rebalancing. I hope this helps

[Bulgarian]

Well sort of thanks again appreciate it.

[babaluj1]

It is too early to make any predictions until the qualifiers are played. What can be commented on is only the Top 5 leagues, which will surely have at least 5 or 6 or 7 clubs in the LP.
Italy is again the main favorite, regardless of whether they played with 7, 8, 9 or 10 clubs. Simply put, Serie A has a very even league and enough quality clubs in the middle of the table.
This is not the case with Germany, although they will have 5 very strong clubs in CL, their weaker clubs from 6th to 8th place could be too heavy a weight. This is where the English will have the opportunity to gain an advantage and get back into the Top 2. The same is true for Spain and France and the others, but with somewhat smaller chances.
If all the clubs of the Top 5 countries make it to the Conference Play Off, I would give Italy about 60%, England about 40%, Germany and Spain about 35%, France 15% and all the others together 15% chances.

[BurningStorm]

It is too early to make any predictions until the qualifiers are played. What can be commented on is only the Top 5 leagues, which will surely have at least 5 or 6 or 7 clubs in the LP.
Italy is again the main favorite, regardless of whether they played with 7, 8, 9 or 10 clubs. Simply put, Serie A has a very even league and enough quality clubs in the middle of the table.
This is not the case with Germany, although they will have 5 very strong clubs in CL, their weaker clubs from 6th to 8th place could be too heavy a weight. This is where the English will have the opportunity to gain an advantage and get back into the Top 2. The same is true for Spain and France and the others, but with somewhat smaller chances.
If all the clubs of the Top 5 countries make it to the Conference Play Off, I would give Italy about 60%, England about 40%, Germany and Spain about 35%, France 15% and all the others together 15% chances.

I think it also depends on motivation and in what shapes teams are, plus draws. You are right, Italian teams were very good in the three ECL seasons. Regarding Germany I think the ECL is not a popular competition for the clubs so far. Lets not forget: Eintracht won the EL two years ago while ending up 11th in the Bundesliga. Not many leagues could do this. Freiburg are currently 8th in Bundesliga, but they were good enough to beat ECL finalist Olympiacos twice (5:0 and 3:2) - I know they are much better now, but still - and they also knocked out the CL team Lens. So for me our teams 6-8 are good enough to show some good results in the EL, only the ECL is a problem. Same goes for Spain, quality wise they could do much better in ECL, but somehow this competition is not their (and Germany's) friend.

[babaluj1]

The main strength of the Bundesliga is the 5 super strong clubs at the top. All of them will surely be in the Top 24, and it is very possible that they will all make it to the Round of 16. It is realistic to expect Germany to take the most points in the CL. And Spain has 4 very strong clubs in CL and the same applies to them as to Germany. England has 3 Top clubs who are favorites to advance to the Round of 16, and the result of Aston Villa, who seems too weak for the CL, is questionable. From the Italians and the French, Inter and PSG are certainly in the Round of 16, and all the others are waiting for a fierce battle to enter the top 16. I think that all Italian clubs will be in the Top 24, but it is questionable how many will make it to the Round of 16.
We will be smarter when we see the first rounds and the form of all those clubs. The competition will be fierce in the CL and I think that at least 4 German, and at least 3 Spanish, English and Italian clubs will enter the Round of 16. That's already 13 clubs, let's add to that PSG, that's 14 and there will be a fierce fight for the other 2 places.
I expect Italians to dominate in the lower leagues, similar to this season.

[mitsaras]

Top10 looks stable for the next 5 years..

Is there a country which can break the top10?
Which is your opinion?

[dnina10]

Top10 looks stable for the next 5 years..

Is there a country which can break the top10?
Which is your opinion?

One clear one for me, and that's Greece. Maybe Austria if all their teams contribute, but Greece to me, within the next 2 years, can crack the top 10. If they even have a decent year next season, I think that'll be the difference

[mitsaras]

Top10 looks stable for the next 5 years..

Is there a country which can break the top10?
Which is your opinion?

One clear one for me, and that's Greece. Maybe Austria if all their teams contribute, but Greece to me, within the next 2 years, can crack the top 10. If they even have a decent year next season, I think that'll be the difference

As I said to the 23-24 I don't expect an average year from Greece.. maybe a bad (or a very good, not an average at all)

From the other countries, I will agree with you.. only Austria has the potential to the top10

[fabiomh]

It is too early to make any predictions until the qualifiers are played. What can be commented on is only the Top 5 leagues, which will surely have at least 5 or 6 or 7 clubs in the LP.
Italy is again the main favorite, regardless of whether they played with 7, 8, 9 or 10 clubs. Simply put, Serie A has a very even league and enough quality clubs in the middle of the table.
This is not the case with Germany, although they will have 5 very strong clubs in CL, their weaker clubs from 6th to 8th place could be too heavy a weight. This is where the English will have the opportunity to gain an advantage and get back into the Top 2. The same is true for Spain and France and the others, but with somewhat smaller chances.
If all the clubs of the Top 5 countries make it to the Conference Play Off, I would give Italy about 60%, England about 40%, Germany and Spain about 35%, France 15% and all the others together 15% chances.

Well, the fact that Italy went well in the last two seasons, does not mean that it will go well again.
You are right in your analysis, when you tell that the quality of the middle clubs is good.
But what will happen in the 24/25 is uncertain: too many Italian clubs will change their coach (Juventus, Milan, Bologna, Lazio, maybe Fiorentina, currently Gasperini seem to remain in Bergamo, but not 100% sure).
It is easy to predict that not everything will go right.
I am afraid that Bologna in CL, without Thiago Motta, might have a poor performance.

[amirbachar]

Top10 looks stable for the next 5 years..

Is there a country which can break the top10?
Which is your opinion?

One clear one for me, and that's Greece. Maybe Austria if all their teams contribute, but Greece to me, within the next 2 years, can crack the top 10. If they even have a decent year next season, I think that'll be the difference

As I said to the 23-24 I don't expect an average year from Greece.. maybe a bad (or a very good, not an average at all)

From the other countries, I will agree with you.. only Austria has the potential to the top10

That's a weird prediction. Why can't it be the case the 2 teams will succeed and 2 won't? Do you think they'll push each other mentally or something?

[eye]

One clear one for me, and that's Greece. Maybe Austria if all their teams contribute, but Greece to me, within the next 2 years, can crack the top 10. If they even have a decent year next season, I think that'll be the difference

As I said to the 23-24 I don't expect an average year from Greece.. maybe a bad (or a very good, not an average at all)

From the other countries, I will agree with you.. only Austria has the potential to the top10

That's a weird prediction. Why can't it be the case the 2 teams will succeed and 2 won't? Do you think they'll push each other mentally or something?

AEK will be unseeded at ECL-PO and Panathinaikos will be unseeded at EL-Q2 and all the rest qualifying rounds. AEK at ECL-LP can have minimum a performance that will award country 6 points (3W-3L or similar) and same for Panathinaikos and will surely be at top24 and get some bonus points and 2 more matches at least. Panathinaikos might get these points also at EL even if they finish below 24th place since there are 2 extra matches at EL-LP.
Since Olympiakos is already at EL-LP and PAOK almost surely will end up at LP I am expecting from them to give something like 25-30 points to country so the key will be the performance of AEK and Panathinaikos at qualifiers. If any of them or both qualify at LP Greece will have a great performance. If none of them make it then it will be a bad season overall. A coefficient below 9.000 will be actually a bad season for Greece, over 11.000 will be a good season, 9-000-11.000 will be a normal season.