Draw System for League Phases of European Cups 2024 onwards

including formats, draws, seedings, etc.
SimonB
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Post by SimonB »

I would read it that the "Higher points obtained collectively from league phase opponents" would include the head to head meeting as they would be one of the opponents, but perhaps I don't interpret that clause correctly.
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Post by Forza AZ »

SimonB wrote: Fri Jun 14, 2024 17:09 I would read it that the "Higher points obtained collectively from league phase opponents" would include the head to head meeting as they would be one of the opponents, but perhaps I don't interpret that clause correctly.
Yes, it will include all 8 matches of all 8 opponents.
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bert.kassies
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Post by bert.kassies »

But these opponents totals will almost never be used in the final ranking. Only when the 6 other metrics fail to produce a difference.
UEFA European Cup Football for all UEFA coefficients and rankings
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Post by amenina »

Well if two teams have the exact same record, and we have to use the tiebreaker of counting the records of all their opponents, this means:

- If the two teams have played each other, then the other team is one of the opponents of each. But we know they have the exact same record, so they cancel out each other and there is no need to count them.

- If the two teams have any common opponents, again, the record of these opponents are counted for both teams, so again they cancel out and there is no need to count them.

Of course this applies only if two teams have the exact same record. If there are more than two teams, it gets much more complicated.
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Post by amirbachar »

amenina wrote: Fri Jun 14, 2024 20:47 Well if two teams have the exact same record, and we have to use the tiebreaker of counting the records of all their opponents, this means:

- If the two teams have played each other, then the other team is one of the opponents of each. But we know they have the exact same record, so they cancel out each other and there is no need to count them.

- If the two teams have any common opponents, again, the record of these opponents are counted for both teams, so again they cancel out and there is no need to count them.

Of course this applies only if two teams have the exact same record. If there are more than two teams, it gets much more complicated.
Actually soccer is not a zero sum game...
It is possible that team A won 2-0, and lost 0-1 twice while team B drew 0-0, 1-1, 1-1.
They may have the same record, but the opponents won 6 points against team A and 3 against team B.
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Post by greenbay »

Higher number of points obtained collectively by league phase opponents
This happens when you don't read it word for word carefully. I actually have read ..."obtained by collective league phase opponents". :degsmile:
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Post by amenina »

I think there are still a few people that do not understand the following tiebreakers:

Higher number of points obtained collectively by league phase opponents
Superior collective goal difference of league phase opponents
Higher number of goals scored collectively by league phase opponents

How are these determined, let’s say to break the tie between Team A and Team B?

Let’s say the opponents of Team A in the league phase are Teams C-J, and the opponents of Team B in the league phase are Teams K-R.

So for Teams C-J, we add up their collective points total in the league phase standings. As each of them play 8 matches, that is a total of 64 matches. And we do the same for Teams K-R.

If Teams C-J collectively earn more points than Teams K-R, then Team A win the tiebreaker, because they play a “better” set of opponents than Team B. If Teams K-R collectively earn more points, then Team B win the tiebreaker. If collective points are still tied, we go to collective goal difference, and then collective goals scored.

So if Teams A and B actually play each other during the league phase, their record contribute to the other team’s collective opponent record. But since we know that the two teams have the same record, they cancel out each other.

Moreover, if the two teams play a common opponent Team X, the record of Team X contribute to the collective opponent records of both teams, so again it cancels out.
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Post by greenbay »

So after reading it more carefully now, it‘s not „common games“ in NFL terms but „strength of schedule“. :)
So if Teams A and B actually play each other during the league phase, their record contribute to the other team’s collective opponent record. But since we know that the two teams have the same record, they cancel out each other.
Not fully if A and B are from different pots. Say A are from pot 1, while B are from pot 2. A and B themselves cancel each other out, so far so good. But compiling the records of the 7 opponents remaining for each team, A has 2 teams from pot 1 and 1 team from pot 2 earning points for them in the tiebreaker. Whereas B only has 1 from P1 but 2 from P2. So A has an advantage here.
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Post by dnina10 »

greenbay wrote: Sat Jun 15, 2024 14:01 So after reading it more carefully now, it‘s not „common games“ in NFL terms but „strength of schedule“. :)
So if Teams A and B actually play each other during the league phase, their record contribute to the other team’s collective opponent record. But since we know that the two teams have the same record, they cancel out each other.
Not fully if A and B are from different pots. Say A are from pot 1, while B are from pot 2. A and B themselves cancel each other out, so far so good. But compiling the records of the 7 opponents remaining for each team, A has 2 teams from pot 1 and 1 team from pot 2 earning points for them in the tiebreaker. Whereas B only has 1 from P1 but 2 from P2. So A has an advantage here.
That's exactly it, strength of schedule. We use it here in North America quite a lot (good example being NFL, as you mentioned). I'm not a fan of this as a tiebreaker though, as it can have outliers
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Post by Sagy »

dnina10 wrote: Sat Jun 15, 2024 20:39
That's exactly it, strength of schedule. We use it here in North America quite a lot (good example being NFL, as you mentioned). I'm not a fan of this as a tiebreaker though, as it can have outliers
What are the outliers that you are concerned about?

On The face of it, if two teams are tied, giving the tiebreaker to the team that played “better opponents” seems reasonable. I can see the case to excluding the games against the teams in question (otherwise a win and two losses is better than three draws).
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Post by eye »

I don't know how UEFA is planning to do the draw but surely thy can do it the same way it was done till now. I have created a program called Draw Simulator which performs the draw by drawing all the 144 pairs manually. You can get this program from this link https://bit.ly/4b6RGpR

Here are the instructions on how to use it.
1) Download the zip file
2) Extract all the files to the same folder
3) Run Draw Simulator. Your antivirus may check it the first time you run it
4) You will see a list of clubs in yellow. In front of each club there is a number (1-9). Hit the number to pick the home club of the pair.
5) A new list of clubs in red will appear. These are the clubs that the club that has picked as home club may play. Choose one by hitting the number in front of the club.
6) Steps 4-5 are repeating till all 9 pairs between clubs that take part at the draw of pot x vs pot y are drawn. The list of these 9 pairs will appear on screen.
7) Steps 4-6 are repeating for draws between other pot x vs pot y
8) At the end an excel file named draw.xlsx with the results of the draw will appear at the folder.

Few notes for this program. Program runs on windows system only. It was designed just as a personal project so I didn't pay attention to user interface, possible user errors so you may face some of them. Eg if you delete any of the files of the folder program will crash cause I don't check such things. Also when the program is about to store the excel file if this excel file (that was created at previous run of program) is open it will crash. So close the excel file and if you want to keep the data rename it cause program overwrites it.

Finally it is assumed that clubs with highest coefficients at qualifiers will be at the LP. If there are different I need to generate new files (I will post link for them if needed). I did many tests myself and program was working correctly. If you notice any bug please let me know it to fix it.
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Post by greenbay »

eye wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2024 00:22 I don't know how UEFA is planning to do the draw but surely thy can do it the same way it was done till now. I have created a program called Draw Simulator which performs the draw by drawing all the 144 pairs manually. You can get this program from this link https://bit.ly/4b6RGpR
The idea behind this to draw single fixtures, I'm fully with you here. But I have my doubts that it will be done this way. Far too many picks necessary. It won't be 288 picks (144x2) as further down the draw, many fixtures will be forced automatically due to pot and country restrictions. But I'd say we still talking about a three-digit figure to pick balls. So it simply takes too much time for a live draw. It's not the shuffling and drawing itself. It's that before every draw, even if they'd do it like "now we are going to pick the fixtures for pot 2 vs pot 3", every time after the home side is drawn, they must fill a bowl with the eligible opponents, and that's what taking too much time for 144 fixtures of which maybe more than half are actually drawn, not forced. So that's actually the beauty of "option 3". It's still a manual draw, but we are talking only 36 picks here. Picked from bowls already filled before the draw, 4 pots of 9. No time consuming filling of bowls during the draw.
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eye
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Post by eye »

greenbay wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2024 06:48
eye wrote: Sun Jun 16, 2024 00:22 I don't know how UEFA is planning to do the draw but surely thy can do it the same way it was done till now. I have created a program called Draw Simulator which performs the draw by drawing all the 144 pairs manually. You can get this program from this link https://bit.ly/4b6RGpR
The idea behind this to draw single fixtures, I'm fully with you here. But I have my doubts that it will be done this way. Far too many picks necessary. It won't be 288 picks (144x2) as further down the draw, many fixtures will be forced automatically due to pot and country restrictions. But I'd say we still talking about a three-digit figure to pick balls. So it simply takes too much time for a live draw. It's not the shuffling and drawing itself. It's that before every draw, even if they'd do it like "now we are going to pick the fixtures for pot 2 vs pot 3", every time after the home side is drawn, they must fill a bowl with the eligible opponents, and that's what taking too much time for 144 fixtures of which maybe more than half are actually drawn, not forced. So that's actually the beauty of "option 3". It's still a manual draw, but we are talking only 36 picks here. Picked from bowls already filled before the draw, 4 pots of 9. No time consuming filling of bowls during the draw.
They don't need to fill bowl with the eligible opponents each time. They only need to have 2 bowls of 9 balls each and draw from them. They will pick the home club and the away club. When the away club is not eligible opponent for the home club it will be placed automatically to the next pair and a new away club will be drawn. Eg at pot1 vs pot1 pair if first drawn club is Real Madrid and first away club is Barcelona they will put Barcelona as away club of second pair and draw new opponent for Real Madrid and then home club that will face Barcelona.

If they still need to reduce the needed time they may assume that home clubs have been already drawn based on their coefficient (eg at pot 1 vs pot 1 first home club is Real Madrid, 2nd Manchester City etc) and draw only the away clubs and place them to the first availiable away place they may be (computer will have already calculated the scenarios).
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Post by mspm89 »

Francisco wrote: Fri Jun 14, 2024 17:06
greenbay wrote: Fri Jun 14, 2024 15:59 Good point. But UEFA obviously thinks otherwise.
If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of the league phase matches, the following criteria are applied, in this order, to determine their rankings:
Superior goal difference in the league phase
Higher number of goals scored in the league phase
Higher number of away goals scored in the league phase
Higher number of wins in the league phase
Higher number of away wins in the league phase
Higher number of points obtained collectively by league phase opponents
Superior collective goal difference of league phase opponents
Higher number of goals scored collectively by league phase opponents
Lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in all league phase matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points)
Higher club coefficient
Interestingly there is no more H2H. Maybe with regards to H2H they thought it would be unfair as there is only a single game between them on home soil for a tied team.

Barcelona grabs the #8 spot because there was one common game: Barca beat Graz 4-0 at home, while Leverkusen only won 3-1 away.
Where is the rule regarding the common game ?

The way I read the rules they sum the points of all 8 opponents (not just the common teams they played against):
"Higher number of points obtained collectively by league phase opponents" so each team has 8 opponents, so the points obtained by those 8 opponents determine which team played against the hardest opponents, and that team will be higher in ranking.
Yep, that's how I read it as well. @greenbay : it looks not like Common Games but yet another NFL tiebreaker: Strength of Schedule.

It's kind of weird that they went with this when, in the NFL, SoS is actually below Strength of Victory, which is the same but only with opponents the team in question actually beat.

EDIT: already beaten me to it, hah.
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Post by fabiomh »

greenbay wrote: Sat Jun 15, 2024 14:01 So after reading it more carefully now, it‘s not „common games“ in NFL terms but „strength of schedule“. :)
So if Teams A and B actually play each other during the league phase, their record contribute to the other team’s collective opponent record. But since we know that the two teams have the same record, they cancel out each other.
Not fully if A and B are from different pots. Say A are from pot 1, while B are from pot 2. A and B themselves cancel each other out, so far so good. But compiling the records of the 7 opponents remaining for each team, A has 2 teams from pot 1 and 1 team from pot 2 earning points for them in the tiebreaker. Whereas B only has 1 from P1 but 2 from P2. So A has an advantage here.
I partially agree.
In some way I can say after the results that Team B had a better draw than A.

If a Team A and a Team B had the same number of points, means that either A is a weak Pot1 team or B is a strong Pot2 team.
In both case Team B had a better draw: either Team A met a strong Pot2 team or Team B met a weak Pot1 team.

This should partialy balance the advantage of A Team you mentioned.
Hope for more partecipants in the next Prediction Game
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