2024/25 Conference League: 1st and 2nd qualifying rounds

Champions League, Europa League, Conference League
Sameta
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Post by Sameta »

amenina wrote: Wed Jun 19, 2024 01:55
Lorric wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2024 18:41 Did they make all the seeds get second leg at home, or did it just come out that way?
Just like the draws for all qualifying rounds in CL, EL, and (E)CL, the order of legs is decided by draw. So the seeded team can play the first leg or second leg at home.

For this draw, the numbered ball pairings drawn were 6-3, 10-5, 8-2, 7-4, 9-1. So by the "luck" of the draw, all seeded teams will play the second leg at home in this round.

However, if you have watched any of these draws, this part of the process where they decide the order of legs is not that "random".

Step 1. The person who draws the seeded team puts the seeded ball in the bowl.
Step 2. The person who draws the unseeded team puts the unseeded ball in the bowl, and gives the two balls a "shuffle".
Step 3. After a few seconds, the first person puts his hand in the bowl, and draws a ball, usually by picking the ball which rotates to his hand first. That team will play the first leg at home (the second person draws the second ball immediately afterwards, but this of course is just a formality).

So the two keys of this draw are:

In Step 2, does the second person put the unseeded ball in front of the seeded ball, or behind the seeded ball? The tendency seems to be "behind", as far as today's draw in the three competitions are concerned.

In Step 3, sometimes by the time the first person put his hand in the bowl to pick a ball, the rotation of the two balls have slowed to a pace where one ball immediately follows the other. So in this case, the ball picked out is very likely the ball which is slightly in front. On the other hand, if there is enough force applied for the shuffle, the two balls are roughly "equal" distance from each other both "in front" and "behind" (basically occupying the two ends of the diameter of the bowl) when the first person draws the first ball. So in that case, this drawing can be seen as random with a 50/50 chance of drawing one of the two balls.

So if you watched today's CL Q1 draw, in the beginning, after the second person puts the unseeded ball behind the seeded ball, the force of the shuffle applied by the second person is not strong enough, so when the first person picks the ball, he keeps picking the seeded team because this is the ball that is in front, with the unseeded ball only centimeters behind it. So if you look at the draw results, in the ties of the first group, the majority of the seeded teams play the first leg at home.

However, in the (E)CL Q1 draw, the force of the shuffle applied is enough so that the two balls are quite far apart from each other, so you can consider the draw by the first person to be "random", so it is perhaps "coincidence" that the unseeded balls get picked in all five times. On the other hand, you can also consider that perhaps, if the rotation speed of the balls are always the same since the second person always applies the same amount of shuffle force, and if the first person always waits the same amount of seconds to pick the ball, then perhaps it is not coincidence that he keeps picking the unseeded ball.

Ok, enough of this rant.... :umnik:
Exactly like that, thanks for this explanation. I thought a few times about that in the past.
Juliusz
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Post by Juliusz »

Champions path - no groups

Image

Main path - group 9

Image
Juliusz
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Post by Juliusz »

Group 1

Seeded:
F.C. Copenhagen (DEN)
Atlètic Club Escaldes (AND) - F91 Diddeleng (LUX)
Go Ahead Eagles (NED)
St Mirren FC (SCO)
FK Auda (LVA) - B36 Tórshavn (FRO)

Unseeded:
SK Brann (NOR)
BK Häcken (SWE)
FCB Magpies (GIB) - Derry City FC (IRL)
Valur (ISL) - KF Vllaznia (ALB)
Cliftonville FC (NIR)

Group 2

Seeded:
İstanbul Başakşehir (TUR)
Hapoel Beer Sheva FC (ISR)
Omonoia FC (CYP)
Fehérvár FC (HUN)
FC St. Gallen 1879 (SUI)

Unseeded:
FC Torpedo Kutaisi (GEO) - KF Tirana (ALB)
PFC Cherno More (BUL)
FC Isloch Minsk Region (BLR) - La Fiorita 1967 (SMR)
Sumqayit FK (AZE)
MFK Ružomberok (SVK) - FC Tobol (KAZ)

Group 3

Seeded:
Legia Warszawa (POL)
HNK Hajduk Split (CRO)
GFK Tikves (MKD) - Breiðablik (ISL)
FK Austria Wien (AUT)
FK Mladá Boleslav (CZE)

Unseeded:
FC Drita (KOS)
HB Tórshavn (FRO)
Caernarfon Town FC (WAL) - Crusaders FC (NIR)
Ilves Tampere (FIN)
FK Transinvest (LTU)

Group 4

Seeded:
SC Dnipro-1 (UKR)
HŠK Zrinjski Mostar (BIH)
NK Osijek (CRO)
FC Malisheva (KOS) - FK Budućnost Podgorica (MNE)
FC Noah (ARM) - KF Shkëndija (MKD)

Unseeded:
FA Šiauliai (LTU) - FCI Levadia Tallinn (EST)
NK Bravo (SVN) - Connah's Quay Nomads FC (WAL)
Puskás Akadémia FC (HUN)
FC CSKA 1948 (BUL)
Sliema Wanderers FC (MLT)

Group 5

Seeded:
VPS Vaasa (FIN) - FK Žalgiris (LTU)
Riga FC (LVA)
NK Olimpija Ljubljana (SVN)
FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda (SVK)
FC Baník Ostrava (CZE)

Unseeded:
FC Polissya Zhytomyr (UKR)
WKS Śląsk Wrocław (POL)
IF Elfsborg (SWE) - Pafos FC (CYP)
FC Sheriff Tiraspol (MDA) - PFC Zire (AZE)
JK Tallinna Kalev (EST) - FC Urartu (ARM)

Group 6

Seeded:
Djurgården (SWE)
Vitória SC (POR)
AEK Athens FC (GRE)
Universitatea Craiova (ROU)
FC Zürich (SUI)

Unseeded:
FK Velež Mostar (BIH) - Inter Club d'Escaldes (AND)
Floriana FC (MLT) - SP Tre Penne (SMR)
FC Progrès Niederkorn (LUX)
PFC Botev Plovdiv (BUL) - NK Maribor (SVN)
Shelbourne FC (IRL) - St Joseph's FC (GIB)

Group 7

Seeded:
KAA Gent (BEL)
Stjarnan (ISL) - Linfield FC (NIR)
FC UNA Strassen (LUX) - KuPS Kuopio (FIN)
FC Vaduz (LIE)
Brøndby IF (DEN)

Unseeded:
Tromsø IL (NOR)
Bala Town FC (WAL) - Paide Linnameeskond (EST)
Víkingur (FRO) - FK Liepaja (LVA)
St Patrick's Athletic (IRL)
KF Llapi 1932 (KOS) - Wisła Kraków (POL)

Group 8

Seeded:
CFR 1907 Cluj (ROU)
FC Spartak Trnava (SVK)
FC Ararat-Armenia (ARM)
FK Mornar (MNE) - FC Dinamo Tbilisi (GEO)

Unseeded:
FC Aktobe (KAZ) - FK Sarajevo (BIH)
FK Radnički 1923 (SRB)
FC Zimbru Chişinău (MDA)
FC Neman Grodno (BLR)

Group 9

Seeded:
Maccabi Haifa FC (ISR)
FC Astana (KAZ)
AEK Larnaca FC (CYP)
Marsaxlokk FC (MLT) - FK Partizani (ALB)

Unseeded:
FC Torpedo (BLR) - FC Milsami Orhei (MDA)
FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi (GEO)
Paksi FC (HUN) - FC Corvinul Hunedoara (ROU)
FC Sabah (AZE)
amenina
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Post by amenina »

Groupings (Champions Path)

Seeded:
PFC Ludogorets 1945 (BUL) - FC Dinamo Batumi (GEO)
FC Flora Tallinn (EST) - NK Celje (SVN)
Hamrun Spartans FC (MLT) - Lincoln Red Imps FC (GIB)
FC Dinamo Minsk (BLR) - FC Pyunik (ARM)
FC Ordabasy (KAZ) - FC Petrocub (MDA)
Vikingur Reykjavík (ISL) - Shamrock Rovers FC (IRL)

Unseeded:
ŠK Slovan Bratislava (SVK) - FC Struga (MKD)
KÍ Klaksvík (FRO) - FC Differdange 03 (LUX)
The New Saints FC (WAL) - FK Dečić (MNE)
FK Borac Banja Luka (BIH) - KF Egnatia (ALB)
FC Ballkani (KOS) - UE Santa Coloma (AND)
Virtus A.C. 1964 (SMR) - Fotbal Club FCSB (ROU)
amenina
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Post by amenina »

The 2024/25 UEFA Conference League second qualifying round draw will be held at 14:00 CET on Wednesday 19 June at the House of European Football in Nyon, Switzerland.

Draw procedure: https://editorial.uefa.com/resources/02 ... cedure.pdf
Bulgarian
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Post by Bulgarian »

Wtf is this grouping.. group 2 unseeded teams are fucked. Group 7 probably even more. No easy draws for our teams a second year in a row. Cool.
TommyChat
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Post by TommyChat »

It will be funny if both AEK and Panathinaikos draw Botev Blovdiv - Maribor. :grin1:
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Greyn
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Post by Greyn »

For Legia going out at this stage vs any of the unseeded teams in this group would mean an embarrassment.

Quite interesting group for Śląsk. Śląsk - Olimpija Ljubljana or Śląsk - Banik would be very interesting ties on paper, but if we focus on chances to advance it would be better to avoid both these teams. Dunajska Streda would be also a tough nut to crack for Śląsk.
mieszambeton
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Post by mieszambeton »

Awesome groups for Legia and Slask. Slask have 3 beatable teams giving seeded status in Q3
Bulgarian
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Post by Bulgarian »

TommyChat wrote: Wed Jun 19, 2024 08:58 It will be funny if both AEK and Panathinaikos draw Botev Blovdiv - Maribor. :grin1:
Not really for us.
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bert.kassies
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Post by bert.kassies »

amenina wrote: Wed Jun 19, 2024 01:55
Lorric wrote: Tue Jun 18, 2024 18:41 Did they make all the seeds get second leg at home, or did it just come out that way?
Just like the draws for all qualifying rounds in CL, EL, and (E)CL, the order of legs is decided by draw. So the seeded team can play the first leg or second leg at home.

For this draw, the numbered ball pairings drawn were 6-3, 10-5, 8-2, 7-4, 9-1. So by the "luck" of the draw, all seeded teams will play the second leg at home in this round.

However, if you have watched any of these draws, this part of the process where they decide the order of legs is not that "random".

Step 1. The person who draws the seeded team puts the seeded ball in the bowl.
Step 2. The person who draws the unseeded team puts the unseeded ball in the bowl, and gives the two balls a "shuffle".
Step 3. After a few seconds, the first person puts his hand in the bowl, and draws a ball, usually by picking the ball which rotates to his hand first. That team will play the first leg at home (the second person draws the second ball immediately afterwards, but this of course is just a formality).

So the two keys of this draw are:

In Step 2, does the second person put the unseeded ball in front of the seeded ball, or behind the seeded ball? The tendency seems to be "behind", as far as today's draw in the three competitions are concerned.

In Step 3, sometimes by the time the first person put his hand in the bowl to pick a ball, the rotation of the two balls have slowed to a pace where one ball immediately follows the other. So in this case, the ball picked out is very likely the ball which is slightly in front. On the other hand, if there is enough force applied for the shuffle, the two balls are roughly "equal" distance from each other both "in front" and "behind" (basically occupying the two ends of the diameter of the bowl) when the first person draws the first ball. So in that case, this drawing can be seen as random with a 50/50 chance of drawing one of the two balls.

So if you watched today's CL Q1 draw, in the beginning, after the second person puts the unseeded ball behind the seeded ball, the force of the shuffle applied by the second person is not strong enough, so when the first person picks the ball, he keeps picking the seeded team because this is the ball that is in front, with the unseeded ball only centimeters behind it. So if you look at the draw results, in the ties of the first group, the majority of the seeded teams play the first leg at home.

However, in the (E)CL Q1 draw, the force of the shuffle applied is enough so that the two balls are quite far apart from each other, so you can consider the draw by the first person to be "random", so it is perhaps "coincidence" that the unseeded balls get picked in all five times. On the other hand, you can also consider that perhaps, if the rotation speed of the balls are always the same since the second person always applies the same amount of shuffle force, and if the first person always waits the same amount of seconds to pick the ball, then perhaps it is not coincidence that he keeps picking the unseeded ball.

Ok, enough of this rant.... :umnik:
Yes, completely agree. And this is the case for many years now.

Another point is the so-called random order of clubs in the groups. It does not seem random, but is fairly ordered by coefficients. It looks like they started with a group ordered by coefficients, made some adjustments, and then say "Hey, now it's enough random". Without really randomize each group. Same as before, also the case for many years now.
UEFA European Cup Football for all UEFA coefficients and rankings
Juliusz
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Post by Juliusz »

Very pleased with Legia group. TransINVEST would be preferred, and if I had to pick the one to avoid, it would be HB. But should be not much of a difference here.

I likę Śląsk group a lot, too. Mostly quite short trips with all teams beatable. Pick to get: VPS/Žalgiris, pick to avoid: DAC.

Wisła did not get Corvinul in EL Q1, but maybe they get Vaduz now. Them, Stjarnan or Linfield, Strassen or KuPS would be not that bad. Gent and Brøndby? I've had enough of them, same as Qarabağ in CL.

All my best picks cannot occur at the same time, unfortunately. So I would choose the following set of numbers:

1-8 (Legia - Caernafon/Crusaders)
2-7 (Riga - Śląsk)
4-10 (Vaduz - Llapi/Wisła)
Korgutt
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Post by Korgutt »

Tromsø and Brann with same number. What will be the best draw for both of them? Number 2?
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seso
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Post by seso »

Very positive for AEK too! I don't see any club that could cause trouble.
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Firnen
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Post by Firnen »

Good subgrouping for AEK too.

As long as Panathinaikos doesn't get Braga in the EL, today's draw will be good for the Greek clubs.
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