For Denmark, the Danish Sports Federation has set a target of 9-11 medals. There were 11 in Tokyo, 15 in Rio, 9 in London, 7 in Beijing.
Gracenote predicts 14 medals for Denmark.
The most likely candidates for Danish medals are handball, cycling, badminton, sailing, dressage and canoe sprint.
For
handball, the expectation is probably medals for both the men and women. However, the format is a bit special in that everythings depends on the quarters. It's two groups of six teams with the top four going through to the quarters. So you basically just have to get through the group, and then everything depends on the quarter final. If you win it, then there are medals for 3 of 4 teams. So it can be okay to have a quite tough group, as long as you get through and then win your quarter.
The Men's side has won the last three World Championships, Silver and Gold at the past two Olympics and Silver and Bronze at the last two European Championships. Denmark and France are around equal favourites for gold, and they are in the same group, so we won't risk them meeting in a quarter.
The Women's side is at their first Olympics since 2012, but in recent years they have returned to the world top. 4th in 2020 EC, 3rd in 2021 WC, 2nd in 2022 EC and 3rd in 2023 WC. France and Norway are gold favourites, but Denmark is the third favoured team. Denmark is in the same group as Norway with France in the other one.
For
cycling, it is especially in the track that Denmark usually wins several medals. The Men's Team Pursuit side is usually up there fighting for medals, and some time for gold. And then for both men and women, there are strong options in both madison and omnium. The expectation is probably more than one medal here. In the road cycling, Denmark probably won't be near anything in the time trials. The road race is of course very open and unpredictable, particularly with these tiny bunches of only 90 riders and no radios. We already saw this in Tokyo, where we had maybe the biggest surprise in the modern history of cycling, when Austrian no-name Anna Kiesenhofer won from the early breakaway, as the much favoured Dutch stars hadn't really agreed who of the four had to work for each other, nor were they able to count the number of riders out ahead, so though they had caught the early break aways. I can't remember ever seeing such a small bunch in a Men's race. With teams of max 4 riders, it's extremely unpredictable. It is possible that we just see a group of 10-15 riders getting away early with 1-2 from the major countries, and then just those riders deciding it between them.
For the Men, Mads Pedersen is the second favourite after van der Poel. But a lot depends on how well he recovered from his crash and departure from the Tour de France. For the Women, it would take a bit surprise as Uttrup Ludwig is just returning from a long injury absence. She looked okay at the giro, but I doubt she's at a level where she can beat Kopecky, Longo Borghini or the Dutch.
For
badminton, it's mostly in the Men's singles. Reigning champion Viktor Axelsen will go for his third Olympic medal while Anders Antonsen is the 4th seed. In the Men's doubles, Astrup and Skaarup Rasmussen are fourth seeds. The other categories are unlikely to yield any medal. Denmark was supposed to take part in the mix doubles, but Mathias Christiansen misdid his doping whereabouts for the third time, so will likely be suspended. I'm guessing his partner, and girlfriend, Alexandra Bøje is not too pleased
For
sailing, the big name is Anne-Marie Rindom, who won bronze in 2016 and gold in 2021 in Laser Radial (now ILCA 6). So she will be favoured for another medal. Denmark also has a good history with the 49er boats, but the Men's and Womens team finished 11th and 10th respectively at the last World Championship, so probably aren't favoured for the top spots.
For
dressage the top is usually dominated by only a handful of countries, Germany, UK, US and Netherlands. Denmark has usually been quite close in the team result, but it has mostly just been enough for 4th place, not a medal. However, this time the team is said to be stronger than in decades, and particularly Cathrine Laudrup-Dufour could both challenge for individual medals, and help the team into the top three.
Finally, in
canoe-sprint Emma Aastrand-Jørgensen won two bronze medals in Tokyo, and one silver in Rio, so she will again be among the top favourites in K1 500m and K2 500m. Maybe the men's K4 500m team have a chance as well.
The above are the six sports mentioned by the federation with likely medals. And then there are outside options in other sports. It could be shooting, rowing or golf. Maybe even in tennis, although it seems like Holger Rune has become injured.
