2024/25 Conference League: Play-off Round

[Greyn]

Champions Path

HJK / FK Dečić Tuzi 11.500
Víkingur Reykjavík / FC Flora Tallin 11.000
Ordabasy / Pyunik Erewan 8.000
loser of Petrocub Hîncești / The New Saints FC 7.000
Ballkani Suharekë / Larne FC 6.000
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loser of KÍ Klaksvík / FK Borac Banja Luka 5.500
loser of NK Celje / Shamrock Rovers FC 4.500
loser of Dinamo Minsk / Lincoln Red Imps FC 4.500
loser of FK Panevėžys / Maccabi Tel Aviv 4.000
loser of UE Santa Coloma / RFS Riga 1.199

League Path

Chelsea 96.000
FC København / FC Baník Ostrava 51.500
Silkeborg IF / KAA Gent 45.000
Fiorentina 42.000
Real Betis 33.000
Iberia 1999 Tbilisi / İstanbul Başakşehir FK 29.000
Maccabi Petach Tikva / CFR Cluj 26.500
NK Olimpija Ljubljana / Sheriff Tiraspol 20.000
Brøndbyernes IF / Legia Warszawa 18.000
1.FC Heidenheim 17.324
FK Mladá Boleslav / Hapoel Beer Sheva 17.000
FC Ilves / Djurgårdens IF 16.500
RC Lens 13.366
AS Omónia Lefkossías / FC Fehérvár 12.000
loser of Trabzonspor Kulübü / SK Rapid Wien 11.500
FC Zürich / Vitória SC Guimarães 11.263
Corvinul Hunedoara / FK Astana 11.000
Noa Erewan / AEK Athens 10.000
loser of Molde FK / Cercle Brugge KSV 9.760
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Botew Plovdiv / HŠK Zrinjski Mostar 9.500
NK Maribor / FK Vojvodina Novi Sad 9.500
loser of SC Braga / Servette FC Geneva 9.000
MFK Ružomberok / HNK Hajduk (Split) 9.000
NK Osijek / Zirə FK 8.500
loser of FK Partizan Belgrade / FC Lugano 8.000
FC Spartak Trnava / Wisła Kraków 8.000
Ararat-Armenia Erewan / Puskás Akadémia FC 8.000
Kilmarnock FC / Tromsø IL 7.210
Saint Mirren FC / SK Brann 7.210
FC Sankt Gallen / Śląsk Wrocław 6.595
Auda Ķekava / Drita Gnjilane 6.500
loser of Panathinaïkós AO / AFC Ajax 6.305
BK Häcken / Paide Linnameeskond 6.000
loser of Kryvbas Kryviy Rih / FC Viktoria Plzeň 5.600
CSKA 1948 Sofia / Páfos FC 4.420
Paksi FC / FK Mornar 4.375
loser of HNK Rijeka / IF Elfsborg 4.300
St Patrick's Athletic FC / Sabah Baku 4.025

[matt]

Non-champions path: i was thinking about dividing ideally the teams into three categories, but it's better to create five of them.

Let's focus on seeded teams first. From an unsedeed point of view i would divide the teams into:

Nightmare draw: Betis, Chelsea and Fiorentina

Difficult draw: Gent (Silkeborg), Kobenhavn (Ostrava) and Lens

Average draw: AEK Athens (Noah), Heidenheim, Trabzonspor (Rapid Wien) and Vitoria Guimaraes (Zurich)

Good draw: Basaksehir (Iberia 1999), Cercle Brugge (Molde), Djurgarden (Ilves) Hapoel Beer Sheva (Mlada Boleslav), Legia (Brondby) and Omonoia (Fehervar)

Dream draw: Astana (Hunedoara), Cfr Cluj (Maccabi Petach Tikva) Sheriff (Olimpija Lubiana)


Of course there's the third round first, with results unknown at the time of the draw. My categories assume seeded teams will advance.

[BorisMo]

Unseeded teams would probably want do draw Olimpija-Sheriff or Corvinul-Astana. Israeli teams seem to strugle this season so maybe Mlada Boleslav-Hapoel BS might not be a bad draw. The worst draw would of course be Chelsea, Fiorentina or Betis.

Seeded teams definitely want to avoid loser of Panathinaikos-Ajax, while the best draw would probably be Auda-Drita.

[BorisMo]

Non-champions path: i was thinking about dividing ideally the teams into three categories, but it's better to create five of them.

Let's focus on seeded teams first. From an unsedeed point of view i would divide the teams into:

Night mare draw: Betis, Chelsea and Fiorentina

Difficult draw: Gent, Kobenhavn and Lens

Average draw: AEK Athens, Heidenheim, Trabzonspor and Vitoria Guimaraes

Good draw: Basaksehir, Cercle Brugge, Djurgarden, Hapoel Beer Sheva, Legia and Omonoia

Dream draw: Astana, Cfr Cluj, Sheriff


Of course there's the third round first, with results unknown at the time of the draw. My categories assume seeded teams will advance.

I mostly agree with your list. I want Zrinjski to draw either someone we can play with (like Astana or Sheriff) or some big name (like Chelsea or Fiorentina). We wouldn't stand a chance against them, but at least we would watch big team in Mostar. All that of course only if we knock out Botev. Terrible draw would be someone like Copenhagen or Gent, very strong teams but not such big names like Chelsea.

[matt]

Same thing with the unsedeed teams of PO round, let's divide them into categories.

Nightmare draw: empty, i don't find a reason to put someone here.

Difficult draw: Brann (St. Mirren), Hajduk Split (Ruzomberok) Panathinaikos (Ajax) and Servette (Braga)

Average draw: Elfsborg (Rijeka), Lugano (Partizan), Osijek (Zira) Paks (Mornar), St. Gallen (Slask), Tromso/Kilmarnock

Good draw: Hacken (Paide), Kryvbas (Viktoria Plzen), Maribor (Vojvodina), Paphos (Cska Sofia 1948), Puskas Akademia (Ararat Armenia), Trnava (Wisla), Zrinjski (Botev Plovdiv)

Dream draw: Sabah (St. Patrick's) and Drita (Auda)



So, what would you change?

[matt]

Oh, i forgot the Champions path. There is not much to say, the seeded pairs look stronger.
The New Saints were lucky to be drawn against Petrocub in the EL Q3, it means even if they lose they have a 60% chance to face Lincoln, UE Santa Coloma or Panevezys in the ECL PO, if surprises does not happen in EL Q3.

From the unsedeed pairs the one to avoid is Shamrock Rovers (Celje). I'd put Klaksvik (Borac) in second place and then the three weakest ones before mentioned.

Probably the unsedeed pairs have the most chances against The New Saints (Petrocub).

Just no rematch, please

[Greyn]

Non-champions path: i was thinking about dividing ideally the teams into three categories, but it's better to create five of them.

Let's focus on seeded teams first. From an unsedeed point of view i would divide the teams into:

Night mare draw: Betis, Chelsea and Fiorentina

Difficult draw: Gent, Kobenhavn and Lens

Average draw: AEK Athens, Heidenheim, Trabzonspor and Vitoria Guimaraes

Good draw: Basaksehir, Cercle Brugge, Djurgarden, Hapoel Beer Sheva, Legia and Omonoia

Dream draw: Astana, Cfr Cluj, Sheriff


Of course there's the third round first, with results unknown at the time of the draw. My categories assume seeded teams will advance.

I am probably biased here, but I would move up Legia to "average draw category". I think that company of AEK Athens, Heidenheim, Trabzonspor and Vitoria Guimaraes is more appropriate for Legia than company of the teams from "good draw category". I dare to say that I would rather draw Trabzonspor and particularly Vitoria Guimaraes rather than Legia. As I wrote, I am probably biased with my vision on this matter.

[TommyChat]

Oh, i forgot the Champions path. There is not much to say, the seeded pairs look stronger.
The New Saints were lucky to be drawn against Petrocub in the EL Q3, it means even if they lose they have a 60% chance to face Lincoln, UE Santa Coloma or Panevezys in the ECL PO, if surprises does not happen in EL Q3.

From the unsedeed pairs the one to avoid is Shamrock Rovers (Celje). I'd put Klaksvik (Borac) in second place and then the three weakest ones before mentioned.

Probably the unsedeed pairs have the most chances against The New Saints (Petrocub).

Just no rematch, please

Since Ballkani/Larne can't draw Borac/Klaksvik there will probably be groups. Even though it won't be that good that that there will be a group of 2 seeded and 2 unseeded, it is what UEFA seems to prefer instead of the chance of moving the second team drawn to the next pairing when a restricted draw occurs or remains last.

[rpo.castro]

Non-champions path: i was thinking about dividing ideally the teams into three categories, but it's better to create five of them.

Let's focus on seeded teams first. From an unsedeed point of view i would divide the teams into:

Night mare draw: Betis, Chelsea and Fiorentina

Difficult draw: Gent, Kobenhavn and Lens

Average draw: AEK Athens, Heidenheim, Trabzonspor and Vitoria Guimaraes

Good draw: Basaksehir, Cercle Brugge, Djurgarden, Hapoel Beer Sheva, Legia and Omonoia

Dream draw: Astana, Cfr Cluj, Sheriff


Of course there's the third round first, with results unknown at the time of the draw. My categories assume seeded teams will advance.

I am probably biased here, but I would move up Legia to "average draw category". I think that company of AEK Athens, Heidenheim, Trabzonspor and Vitoria Guimaraes is more appropriate for Legia than company of the teams from "good draw category". I dare to say that I would rather draw Trabzonspor and particularly Vitoria Guimaraes rather than Legia. As I wrote, I am probably biased with my vision on this matter.

I don't know what's current value of Trabzonspor, but Vitoria Guimarães seems to me more accessible than Legia. Vitoria Guimarães ranking is lower than country ranking, so they are using country ranking. I don't know if they will pass Zurich.
Portugal-Switzerland will have double header and I think will be very balanced. Both portuguese teams have new coaches and have important players going out. This qualifying come very very early in the season, despite the victories, the matches against Maccabi Petah and Floriana were far from great. The teams had huge gap and the results shows that gap, not good playing.

Zurich and Servette won their Swiss league matches. Servette beat Young Boys, Zurich will face them on Sunday, so looks quite interesting.

[Greyn]

I don't trust Trabzonspor, I believe they are overrated team year after year. They are particularly weak away. They may have 3 or 4 times higher budget than Legia, they could be clear favourites for bookies vs Legia, but in case of imagined Trabzonspor - Legia tie I would still consider Legia to be favourites. Same story with their finishing place in the Turkish league, they can finish higher than Galatasaray, Fenerbahce or Besiktas, but in Europe I would prefer to face Trabzonspor rather than mentioned Turkish Big trio.

[GS128]

Trabzonspor was in bad form for last two years. They built a balanced team. I am expecting more from Trabzonspor this season. Their defence was shaky in QR2. On the other hand, new transfer Stefan Savić will be added within QR3.

[babaluj1]

Night mare drow: Chelsea,Fiorentina,Lens,Betis
Difficult drow:Kobenhavn,Heidenhaim,Gent,AEK
Average drow: Brondby,Cercle Brugge,Vitoria G.,Basaksehir,Trabzonspor
Good drow: the rest
Dream drow: Astana

[Greyn]

Night mare drow: Chelsea,Fiorentina,Lens,Betis
Difficult drow:Kobenhavn,Heidenhaim,Gent,AEK
Average drow: Brondby,Cercle Brugge,Vitoria G.,Basaksehir,Trabzonspor
Good drow: the rest
Dream drow: Astana

Thanks for that. Last year you were very confident that AZ will finish in the top 2 in the CO Group at the expense of Legia, so I hope that the story will repeat and it is a good sign for Legia before the tie vs Broendby.

[babaluj1]

Night mare drow: Chelsea,Fiorentina,Lens,Betis
Difficult drow:Kobenhavn,Heidenhaim,Gent,AEK
Average drow: Brondby,Cercle Brugge,Vitoria G.,Basaksehir,Trabzonspor
Good drow: the rest
Dream drow: Astana

Thanks for that. Last year you were very confident that AZ will finish in the top 2 in the CO Group at the expense of Legia, so I hope that the story will repeat and it is a good sign for Legia before the tie vs Broendby.

They are the favorites to pass, and AZ was the favorite last year, but favorites don't always pass. If Legia eliminates Brondby, they will be in that average category. I'm not saying that personally, I'm taking data from the clubelo rating. Personally, I would like Legia to eliminate Brondby!

[Korgutt]

4 draw groups in Main Path?
3 of them with 5 seeded teams and 5 unseeded teams? And 1 group with 4+4?