League stage statistics with the probability on rank class and past results of clubs. Based on a simulation of remaining match results with club strength based on draw pots (and thus loosely based on UEFA coefficients). For more details see below.
| Conference League 2024/25 |
pld | pnts | probability on rank | results | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-8 | 9-16 | 17-24 | 25-36 | avg | std | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ||||||
| Chelsea | Eng | 1 | 3 | 62 | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8.2 | 7.1 | W | |||||||
| Fiorentina | Ita | 1 | 3 | 56 | 26 | 13 | 5 | 9.3 | 7.5 | W | |||||||
| Legia Warsaw | Pol | 1 | 3 | 51 | 27 | 15 | 7 | 10.3 | 8.0 | W | |||||||
| 1.FC Heidenheim | Ger | 1 | 3 | 47 | 28 | 16 | 8 | 11.0 | 8.2 | W | |||||||
| Molde FK | Nor | 1 | 3 | 45 | 28 | 17 | 9 | 11.4 | 8.2 | W | |||||||
| Rapid Wien | Aut | 1 | 3 | 40 | 29 | 19 | 11 | 12.5 | 8.6 | W | |||||||
| Omonia Nicosia | Cyp | 1 | 3 | 38 | 29 | 21 | 12 | 12.9 | 8.6 | W | |||||||
| Vitória Guimarães | Por | 1 | 3 | 35 | 30 | 22 | 14 | 13.6 | 8.7 | W | |||||||
| FK Astana | Kaz | 1 | 3 | 35 | 30 | 22 | 14 | 13.6 | 8.7 | W | |||||||
| LASK | Aut | 1 | 1 | 34 | 29 | 22 | 15 | 13.8 | 8.8 | D | |||||||
| FC Lugano | Sui | 1 | 3 | 32 | 30 | 23 | 15 | 14.1 | 8.7 | W | |||||||
| Cercle Brugge | Bel | 1 | 3 | 31 | 29 | 24 | 16 | 14.4 | 8.8 | W | |||||||
| Djurgårdens IF | Swe | 1 | 1 | 28 | 28 | 24 | 19 | 15.4 | 9.1 | D | |||||||
| Hearts FC | Sco | 1 | 3 | 25 | 28 | 25 | 21 | 16.0 | 9.0 | W | |||||||
| Jagiellonia Bialystok | Pol | 1 | 3 | 24 | 29 | 25 | 21 | 16.1 | 9.0 | W | |||||||
| APOEL Nicosia | Cyp | 1 | 1 | 23 | 27 | 26 | 23 | 16.7 | 9.2 | D | |||||||
| AA Gent | Bel | 1 | 0 | 23 | 29 | 25 | 23 | 16.7 | 9.2 | L | |||||||
| Real Betis | Esp | 1 | 0 | 22 | 29 | 26 | 24 | 16.9 | 9.2 | L | |||||||
| FC København | Den | 1 | 0 | 19 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 18.0 | 9.3 | L | |||||||
| Pafos FC | Cyp | 1 | 3 | 16 | 25 | 29 | 31 | 18.8 | 8.9 | W | |||||||
| FC Noah | Arm | 1 | 3 | 16 | 25 | 28 | 31 | 18.9 | 9.0 | W | |||||||
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Tur | 1 | 0 | 15 | 25 | 27 | 33 | 19.2 | 9.2 | L | |||||||
| Shamrock Rovers | Irl | 1 | 1 | 14 | 22 | 28 | 36 | 20.1 | 9.3 | D | |||||||
| Olimpija Ljubljana | Slo | 1 | 0 | 12 | 22 | 27 | 39 | 20.9 | 9.2 | L | |||||||
| HJK Helsinki | Fin | 1 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 26 | 48 | 22.7 | 9.0 | L | |||||||
| The New Saints | Wal | 1 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 49 | 23.1 | 9.0 | L | |||||||
| Panathinaikos | Gre | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 26 | 51 | 23.4 | 8.8 | D | |||||||
| FK Borac Banja Luka | Bos | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 26 | 51 | 23.4 | 8.7 | D | |||||||
| Mladá Boleslav | Cze | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 23 | 59 | 25.0 | 8.6 | L | |||||||
| TSC Backa Topola | Srb | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 23 | 60 | 25.4 | 8.4 | L | |||||||
| FC Sankt Gallen | Sui | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 19 | 67 | 26.6 | 8.1 | L | |||||||
| Petrocub Hîncesti | Mol | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 69 | 27.1 | 7.9 | L | |||||||
| Dinamo Minsk | Bls | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 71 | 27.5 | 7.7 | L | |||||||
| NK Celje | Slo | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 | 71 | 27.5 | 7.7 | L | |||||||
| Larne FC | Nir | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 71 | 27.5 | 7.8 | L | |||||||
| Vikingur Reykjavik | Isl | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 73 | 28.0 | 7.5 | L | |||||||
The probability on rank class is calculated by 50.000 random sets of remaining match results. Clubs are divided into the same pots as used by the draw of the league stage. A weight factor of 2 for scoring goals is used between clubs of the highest and the lowest pots, while other clubs have a weight factor in between. The number of goals in a match result is determined by a pseudo zero-inflated Poisson distribution with an average of about 3 goals per match.