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Conference League Stage Statistics 2024/25

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League stage statistics with the probability on rank class and past results of clubs. Based on a simulation of remaining match results with club strength based on draw pots (and thus loosely based on UEFA coefficients). For more details see below.

Conference League
2024/25
pld pnts probability on rank results
1-8 9-16 17-24 25-36 avg std 1 2 3 4 5 6
Chelsea Eng 1 3 62 23 11 4 8.2 7.1 W
Fiorentina Ita 1 3 56 26 13 5 9.3 7.5 W
Legia Warsaw Pol 1 3 51 27 15 7 10.3 8.0 W
1.FC Heidenheim Ger 1 3 47 28 16 8 11.0 8.2 W
Molde FK Nor 1 3 45 28 17 9 11.4 8.2 W
Rapid Wien Aut 1 3 40 29 19 11 12.5 8.6 W
Omonia Nicosia Cyp 1 3 38 29 21 12 12.9 8.6 W
Vitória Guimarães Por 1 3 35 30 22 14 13.6 8.7 W
FK Astana Kaz 1 3 35 30 22 14 13.6 8.7 W
LASK Aut 1 1 34 29 22 15 13.8 8.8 D
FC Lugano Sui 1 3 32 30 23 15 14.1 8.7 W
Cercle Brugge Bel 1 3 31 29 24 16 14.4 8.8 W
Djurgårdens IF Swe 1 1 28 28 24 19 15.4 9.1 D
Hearts FC Sco 1 3 25 28 25 21 16.0 9.0 W
Jagiellonia Bialystok Pol 1 3 24 29 25 21 16.1 9.0 W
APOEL Nicosia Cyp 1 1 23 27 26 23 16.7 9.2 D
AA Gent Bel 1 0 23 29 25 23 16.7 9.2 L
Real Betis Esp 1 0 22 29 26 24 16.9 9.2 L
FC København Den 1 0 19 26 27 28 18.0 9.3 L
Pafos FC Cyp 1 3 16 25 29 31 18.8 8.9 W
FC Noah Arm 1 3 16 25 28 31 18.9 9.0 W
Istanbul Basaksehir Tur 1 0 15 25 27 33 19.2 9.2 L
Shamrock Rovers Irl 1 1 14 22 28 36 20.1 9.3 D
Olimpija Ljubljana Slo 1 0 12 22 27 39 20.9 9.2 L
HJK Helsinki Fin 1 0 8 18 26 48 22.7 9.0 L
The New Saints Wal 1 0 8 17 25 49 23.1 9.0 L
Panathinaikos Gre 1 1 7 16 26 51 23.4 8.8 D
FK Borac Banja Luka Bos 1 1 7 16 26 51 23.4 8.7 D
Mladá Boleslav Cze 1 0 5 13 23 59 25.0 8.6 L
TSC Backa Topola Srb 1 0 4 13 23 60 25.4 8.4 L
FC Sankt Gallen Sui 1 0 3 11 19 67 26.6 8.1 L
Petrocub Hîncesti Mol 1 0 3 10 19 69 27.1 7.9 L
Dinamo Minsk Bls 1 0 3 8 18 71 27.5 7.7 L
NK Celje Slo 1 0 2 9 18 71 27.5 7.7 L
Larne FC Nir 1 0 3 9 18 71 27.5 7.8 L
Vikingur Reykjavik Isl 1 0 2 8 16 73 28.0 7.5 L

The probability on rank class is calculated by 50.000 random sets of remaining match results. Clubs are divided into the same pots as used by the draw of the league stage. A weight factor of 2 for scoring goals is used between clubs of the highest and the lowest pots, while other clubs have a weight factor in between. The number of goals in a match result is determined by a pseudo zero-inflated Poisson distribution with an average of about 3 goals per match.


Bert Kassies
bert@kassiesa.net