EL Draw

Champions League, Europa League, Conference League
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AlanK
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Post by AlanK »

Malko wrote:Ithink odds for the moment absolutely useless, cause...the games are in a few months, and till then, much will be different than now......
Wow, I agree with Malko :!: :shock: :shock: This almost always seems to be the way it goes. Form changes, personnel changes (to include coaches) . . .

Think of last season when Real Madrid was invincible through the CWC. And then they weren't. Barça was on the edge of a revolt against Luis Enrique up through the loss at Real Sociedad . . . and all of a sudden they were almost unbeatable. Sevilla looked questionable at the end of the GS in the EL . . . and they went unbeaten in the EL KO's (8-1-0, including the Final).
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results."
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Overgame
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Post by Overgame »

AlanK wrote:
Malko wrote:Ithink odds for the moment absolutely useless, cause...the games are in a few months, and till then, much will be different than now......
Wow, I agree with Malko :!: :shock: :shock: This almost always seems to be the way it goes. Form changes, personnel changes (to include coaches) . . .

Think of last season when Real Madrid was invincible through the CWC. And then they weren't. Barça was on the edge of a revolt against Luis Enrique up through the loss at Real Sociedad . . . and all of a sudden they were almost unbeatable. Sevilla looked questionable at the end of the GS in the EL . . . and they went unbeaten in the EL KO's (8-1-0, including the Final).
Of course, but while saying so, he gives odds for the french teams :p
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AlanK
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Post by AlanK »

Overgame wrote:
AlanK wrote:
Malko wrote:Ithink odds for the moment absolutely useless, cause...the games are in a few months, and till then, much will be different than now......
Wow, I agree with Malko :!: :shock: :shock: This almost always seems to be the way it goes. Form changes, personnel changes (to include coaches) . . .

Think of last season when Real Madrid was invincible through the CWC. And then they weren't. Barça was on the edge of a revolt against Luis Enrique up through the loss at Real Sociedad . . . and all of a sudden they were almost unbeatable. Sevilla looked questionable at the end of the GS in the EL . . . and they went unbeaten in the EL KO's (8-1-0, including the Final).
Of course, but while saying so, he gives odds for the french teams :p
Well, yeah, and the odds he gives in favor of the French teams are ridiculous, in most cases. I checked back: Marseille-Athletic 60-40 :?: :rollfloor: St.-Etienne-Basel 70-30 :?: :rollfloor: :rollfloor: PSG-Chelsea 70-30 :?: :rollfloor: :rollfloor: :rollfloor: But hey, I found something POSITIVE in something Malko wrote :!: :applause: :applause:
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results."
Thunder_PT
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Post by Thunder_PT »

Some standout stats:


Fiorentina vs. English teams
6-2-2, 13-7 goals
Knockouts: 2-0

Midtjylland vs. English teams
2-1-1, 3-2 goals
Knockouts: 1-1 (knocked out Southampton this season, only lost vs. Man City on penalties in 2008)

Galatasaray vs. Italian teams
7-8-7, 29-34 goals
Knockouts: 1-2

Liverpool vs. German teams (including East Germany)
13-10-6, 42-24 goals
Knockouts: 9-2 (10-2 if we count one decided in a 3rd match in neutral stadium won on penalties)

Liverpool vs. German teams (excluding East Germany)
8-8-5, 28-19 goals
Knockouts: 5-2 (6-2 if we count one decided in a 3rd match in neutral stadium won on penalties)

Sporting vs. German teams (including East Germany)
2-6-14, 18-44 goals
Knockouts: 0-6

Sporting vs. German teams (excluding East Germany)
2-5-11, 14-37 goals
Knockouts: 0-4
hertolo
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Post by hertolo »

Thunder_PT wrote:
Overgame wrote:
Thunder_PT wrote: France and Russia... Both have one team luckier than the other. St-Étienne and Krasnodar should be smiling now, Lokomotiv and especially Marseille not so much. Still, I expect only Krasnodar to survive. Why, Dortmund, why did you fail to win your group?
Your respect for Basel is incredible. Do you realise that Basel is 17th in the ranking ?
So? And Benfica are higher than PSG and Juventus. I don't pay attention to the team ranking at all other than for seeding purposes. Basel don't seem as solid since Paulo Sousa left. They were knocked out by Maccabi Tel-Aviv, they lost at home against Belenenses... They also ended up winning the group, but I don't think I'm underestimating in thinking they are below average when you look at the other EL teams. I ranked them below a respectable group of teams, and still higher than Lokomotiv and Braga. I still see them as favorites against St-Étienne. Is it disrespect that I think an Athletic are stronger? I guess I'm disrespecting Braga too, then, I rank them lower than Krasnodar despite the UEFA ranking...
I agree that rankings shouldn't be valued too high, but why do you count the loss against Belenenses yet I assume you don't think less of Dortmund for losing their last two games, one of which was at home? Basing your judgements on the way a team is set up rather than the coefficients and general reputation just needs so much knowledge on football. For example, you say since Paulo Sousa left, Basel is worse off. Sousa lost a cup finale 0-3 at home, he was simply not fit for Basel anymore. Tel-Aviv was a slip up, the rest of the season was a mix up of easy-wins and a incredible massing of hurt players. So your points against Basel I simply do not see as decisive points, especially now with the winter break coming.

Theres a difference between "should be celebrating" and ranking them as a relatively lucky draw. It's all in the language you know, and yours was simply disrespectful.
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Overgame
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Post by Overgame »

Thunder_PT wrote:
Overgame wrote:
Thunder_PT wrote: France and Russia... Both have one team luckier than the other. St-Étienne and Krasnodar should be smiling now, Lokomotiv and especially Marseille not so much. Still, I expect only Krasnodar to survive. Why, Dortmund, why did you fail to win your group?
Your respect for Basel is incredible. Do you realise that Basel is 17th in the ranking ?
So? And Benfica are higher than PSG and Juventus. I don't pay attention to the team ranking at all other than for seeding purposes. Basel don't seem as solid since Paulo Sousa left. They were knocked out by Maccabi Tel-Aviv, they lost at home against Belenenses... They also ended up winning the group, but I don't think I'm underestimating in thinking they are below average when you look at the other EL teams. I ranked them below a respectable group of teams, and still higher than Lokomotiv and Braga. I still see them as favorites against St-Étienne. Is it disrespect that I think an Athletic are stronger? I guess I'm disrespecting Braga too, then, I rank them lower than Krasnodar despite the UEFA ranking...
Sorry, I missed it. I was just pointing that SAINT-ETEIENNE (<-- the team who failed to qualify for the GS 2 years ago, who finished last, behind Qarabag last year) and "Saint-Etienne should be sliming" is just funny. Of course, I'd rather draw Basel rather than some teams from top countries, but I'd rather draw most of the rest.

And 17th isn't to be taken liteeraly, just as an image. 17th means that they reached some late rounds during the past 5 years, nothing more. but it also means that they used to qualify.
bugylibicska
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Post by bugylibicska »

BurningStorm wrote:
Thunder_PT wrote:Why, Dortmund, why did you fail to win your group?
Because the new coach Tuchel fielded the B-team after reaching the next round. Unfortunately. On top, they had bad luck in Krasnodar, hitting the post a few times. After seeing the draw "Krasnodar v Sparta Praha" it's even more annoying. For me, Dortmund v Porto sounds like the perfect EL final.

And Sevilla - lucky as always - got Molde...
Aliceag wrote: Sporting has a balanced draw. Could be nicer, could be worse. It really depends on wich "sporting" will show up. If the Sporting that won on aggregate against Shalke last year shows up, then we're fine. If it is the Sporting that showed up against Wolfsburg then we are not... I guess it will depend on what Jorge Jesus really wants...
And it depends on which Leverkusen show up. Leverkusen were great last season where they beat Zenit twice, Benfica (with Jorge Jesus) and Atletico (in the first leg), then they lost after PSO. This season, they are not that good, despite their great new striker Chicharito. Injured players (Aranguiz, Bender) should come back until then. Interesting matchup, as Porto vs BVB.
The importance of being seeded.

That was the point I`ve tried to argue from Krasnodar`s corner. As seeded they got ``lucky`` getting Sparta Praha and having a decent chance, while as not seeded they`d end up with Porto. End of story. And Dortmund had maybe 4-5 teams from the undesirable group of teams and ended up with Porto instead of Sparta Praha, might still work out for them, but not a lucky draw for sure.
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Post by Vickzq »

hertolo wrote:So while Braga will advance, I do hope that Sion may snatch one or two points for the coefficient for Switzerland.
I wouldn't be that sure about the outcome. It's not only that the draw was nice for Braga, it's also that it's really pretty ok for Sion this way.
Had the feeling that they prepared everything for this year's revenge vs. UEFA in Europa League... so far, that was accurate.
"Help a man when he is in trouble... and he will remember you... the day he is in trouble again."
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Post by Thunder_PT »

hertolo wrote: I agree that rankings shouldn't be valued too high, but why do you count the loss against Belenenses yet I assume you don't think less of Dortmund for losing their last two games, one of which was at home?
You assume wrong. But a) I already thought more about Dortmund to begin with (I hope this isn't disrespectful too) and b) they lost that game with their reserves, right after beating Wolfsburg away. Overall, their good results outweigh the bad ones and consider the level of their opponents.
hertolo wrote:Basing your judgements on the way a team is set up rather than the coefficients and general reputation just needs so much knowledge on football. For example, you say since Paulo Sousa left, Basel is worse off. Sousa lost a cup finale 0-3 at home, he was simply not fit for Basel anymore. Tel-Aviv was a slip up, the rest of the season was a mix up of easy-wins and a incredible massing of hurt players.
I'm not going to pretend I watch all Basel games. I watched 4 of their games in the last 2 seasons: they were outplayed twice vs. FC Porto (5-1 aggregate, could have been a lot more) and exchanged away wins with Belenenses. I wish I could watch more, but time isn't unlimited. You're Swiss, so you know them better (though you might also be biased), but I do follow their results. And you're basically telling me I should ignore the results vs. Maccabi and Belenenses (or their 3 league defeats) as just slip ups, but I should see the wins against Fiorentina and Liverpool (last season) as the norm? The truth is usually somewhere in the middle. Look at Sporting, beat Benfica away 3-0, lost vs. Skenderbeu 3-0...
hertolo wrote:So your points against Basel I simply do not see as decisive points, especially now with the winter break coming.
My points are just their results. Plus, I merely ranked them, didn't rate them. If you're saying I'm wrong, then could you point out where? Who am I overrating, Krasnodar? Olympiakos? Should they be behind Basel?

hertolo wrote:Theres a difference between "should be celebrating" and ranking them as a relatively lucky draw. It's all in the language you know, and yours was simply disrespectful.
Well, if it's about disrespectful language, let it be known it was not my intention. But if "St-Étienne" should be smiling" is offensive, then the internet is really becoming a place where you can't say anything without offending someone. I've said nothing about Basel I wouldn't say even more about Braga who I'm supporting in the EL.

Overgame wrote: Sorry, I missed it. I was just pointing that SAINT-ETEIENNE (<-- the team who failed to qualify for the GS 2 years ago, who finished last, behind Qarabag last year) and "Saint-Etienne should be sliming" is just funny. Of course, I'd rather draw Basel rather than some teams from top countries, but I'd rather draw most of the rest.
I said they should be smiling not because they would beat Basel, but because most other options are stronger. You disagree, you say you'd rather draw MOST of the rest, that's fine, but why don't you show how you'd rank them, then? Then we can talk.
matt
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Post by matt »

Facebook page of Lokomotiv Moskva :?

https://ru-ru.facebook.com/fclokomotiv
International break hater
JK
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Post by JK »

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2599 ... for-doping

What is this crap! When someone dopes, punish him properly. What CONMEBOL is doing here, is the equivalent of saying he should pay 10 € as a sanction, a complete joke! The way it is now, he would even be allowed to play against Schalke in the EL.
JK
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Post by JK »

matt wrote:Facebook page of Lokomotiv Moskva :?

https://ru-ru.facebook.com/fclokomotiv
Is that their official site? I don't understand a word, but the pics with Turkish flags and the plane going down, imply what is written there. Will the games be played without away fans?
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BurningStorm
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Post by BurningStorm »

bugylibicska wrote:
BurningStorm wrote:
Thunder_PT wrote:Why, Dortmund, why did you fail to win your group?
Because the new coach Tuchel fielded the B-team after reaching the next round. Unfortunately. On top, they had bad luck in Krasnodar, hitting the post a few times. After seeing the draw "Krasnodar v Sparta Praha" it's even more annoying. For me, Dortmund v Porto sounds like the perfect EL final.

And Sevilla - lucky as always - got Molde...
Aliceag wrote: Sporting has a balanced draw. Could be nicer, could be worse. It really depends on wich "sporting" will show up. If the Sporting that won on aggregate against Shalke last year shows up, then we're fine. If it is the Sporting that showed up against Wolfsburg then we are not... I guess it will depend on what Jorge Jesus really wants...
And it depends on which Leverkusen show up. Leverkusen were great last season where they beat Zenit twice, Benfica (with Jorge Jesus) and Atletico (in the first leg), then they lost after PSO. This season, they are not that good, despite their great new striker Chicharito. Injured players (Aranguiz, Bender) should come back until then. Interesting matchup, as Porto vs BVB.
The importance of being seeded.

That was the point I`ve tried to argue from Krasnodar`s corner. As seeded they got ``lucky`` getting Sparta Praha and having a decent chance, while as not seeded they`d end up with Porto. End of story. And Dortmund had maybe 4-5 teams from the undesirable group of teams and ended up with Porto instead of Sparta Praha, might still work out for them, but not a lucky draw for sure.
Yes, right. But in our case, we have bad luck anyway. :|

Schalke and Praha were in the same group:

Schalke 1. -> Donezk
Praha 2. -> Krasnodar

3rd-placed CL teams:

Leverkusen seeded -> Sporting
Sevilla unseeded -> Molde
hertolo
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Post by hertolo »

Vickzq wrote:
hertolo wrote:So while Braga will advance, I do hope that Sion may snatch one or two points for the coefficient for Switzerland.
I wouldn't be that sure about the outcome. It's not only that the draw was nice for Braga, it's also that it's really pretty ok for Sion this way.
Had the feeling that they prepared everything for this year's revenge vs. UEFA in Europa League... so far, that was accurate.
It is pretty ok for Sion. (however I do have the impression that we draw way more often against Portugal than say German teams :)).
Thunder_PT wrote:You assume wrong. But a) I already thought more about Dortmund to begin with (I hope this isn't disrespectful too) and b) they lost that game with their reserves, right after beating Wolfsburg away. Overall, their good results outweigh the bad ones and consider the level of their opponents.
You cannot fault Basel for what their opponents are in normal league games. It's not like they can change countries after all. And it's not like there are easy games in the league, as each game has to be won first against teams on the defensive all the time.
I'm not going to pretend I watch all Basel games. I watched 4 of their games in the last 2 seasons: they were outplayed twice vs. FC Porto (5-1 aggregate, could have been a lot more) and exchanged away wins with Belenenses. I wish I could watch more, but time isn't unlimited. You're Swiss, so you know them better (though you might also be biased), but I do follow their results. And you're basically telling me I should ignore the results vs. Maccabi and Belenenses (or their 3 league defeats) as just slip ups, but I should see the wins against Fiorentina and Liverpool (last season) as the norm? The truth is usually somewhere in the middle. Look at Sporting, beat Benfica away 3-0, lost vs. Skenderbeu 3-0...
What I'm saying is that you know Sousa, and since he left, you assume they are rubbish. You place quite a lot of value on a name that you don't really hear a lot of good of in the places he left (but one does not hear too much from Hungary, Israel and Switzerland...). I'm not saying you should ignore the bad results, just that they all had specific reasons which may not apply in February. The underestimation of Swiss Football happens quite a lot and it is getting annoying since Swiss Football has been on the rise for 10 years now in the rankings. Slowly of course, but it would be nice to see that reflected.

Of course another problem is that in European Football you seldom play against teams of the same strength (since pots) and thus you cannot really compare yourself against an equal opponent (unless you're one of the biggest teams and in the last rounds).

(also why should a meaningless group game against belenenses count? and looking at final scores in playoff-games is kinda meaningless since it's only advancing which counts)

It's kind of an interesting effect that everybody seems to overestimate the nations that one is following more. For example in Switzerland, German Bundesliga or Italian Serie A are followed quite a lot more than the French Ligue 1 or the English Premier League or even the Spanish one, so one tends to bet more on them. It's this focus on the big names that is strange and kinda wrong, no?
My points are just their results. Plus, I merely ranked them, didn't rate them. If you're saying I'm wrong, then could you point out where? Who am I overrating, Krasnodar? Olympiakos? Should they be behind Basel?
Of course, since Basel won a lot more in the last five years than these two teams. And that's really the only way to rate teams since comparing the strength of current teams becomes more of a guesswork. Market value is a hint, but then so many other factors apply.
Well, if it's about disrespectful language, let it be known it was not my intention. But if "St-Étienne" should be smiling" is offensive, then the internet is really becoming a place where you can't say anything without offending someone. I've said nothing about Basel I wouldn't say even more about Braga who I'm supporting in the EL.
It's disrespectful since it's condescending. Had you written they "can count themselves lucky" or they "should be happy" it would have been a lot better since both teams can be that, namely content with the draw. Smiling however has the connotation of looking down on someone and being relieved. There's so much in language that I agree with you the internet can be nervebreaking. I've always experienced this forum however as quite polite (exceptions apply).

In the end, I will not partake in a quote war, but I simply had to react to that "smiling" statement. These "back and forths" don't lead anywhere once the basic arguments have been exchanged and I guess that means you are allowed to one round back again, but I do hope you see my points ;-)
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Post by Thunder_PT »

hertolo wrote:
Thunder_PT wrote:You assume wrong. But a) I already thought more about Dortmund to begin with (I hope this isn't disrespectful too) and b) they lost that game with their reserves, right after beating Wolfsburg away. Overall, their good results outweigh the bad ones and consider the level of their opponents.
You cannot fault Basel for what their opponents are in normal league games. It's not like they can change countries after all. And it's not like there are easy games in the league, as each game has to be won first against teams on the defensive all the time.
I don't fault them, but these are the results we have to work with. It's the same with Portuguese teams and more than once I've learnt how little it means to beat small teams. Now, if you get into serious winning streaks, and winning by several goals, that'll mean a little more. That's why I rate Olympiakos higher. They're in a week league, but they've won EVERY game so far and that's impressive in any league. It's not Basel's case.
hertolo wrote:
I'm not going to pretend I watch all Basel games. I watched 4 of their games in the last 2 seasons: they were outplayed twice vs. FC Porto (5-1 aggregate, could have been a lot more) and exchanged away wins with Belenenses. I wish I could watch more, but time isn't unlimited. You're Swiss, so you know them better (though you might also be biased), but I do follow their results. And you're basically telling me I should ignore the results vs. Maccabi and Belenenses (or their 3 league defeats) as just slip ups, but I should see the wins against Fiorentina and Liverpool (last season) as the norm? The truth is usually somewhere in the middle. Look at Sporting, beat Benfica away 3-0, lost vs. Skenderbeu 3-0...
What I'm saying is that you know Sousa, and since he left, you assume they are rubbish. You place quite a lot of value on a name that you don't really hear a lot of good of in the places he left (but one does not hear too much from Hungary, Israel and Switzerland...). I'm not saying you should ignore the bad results, just that they all had specific reasons which may not apply in February. The underestimation of Swiss Football happens quite a lot and it is getting annoying since Swiss Football has been on the rise for 10 years now in the rankings. Slowly of course, but it would be nice to see that reflected.
Actually, you may know Sousa better than me, he actually never coached in the Portuguese league. And you don't need to school me about a league being underestimated, I've been hearing it for years about Portugal. ;)

hertolo wrote:It's kind of an interesting effect that everybody seems to overestimate the nations that one is following more. For example in Switzerland, German Bundesliga or Italian Serie A are followed quite a lot more than the French Ligue 1 or the English Premier League or even the Spanish one, so one tends to bet more on them. It's this focus on the big names that is strange and kinda wrong, no?
Well, the league I follow the most is the Portuguese Liga and I don't think I'm overestimating it. I'm predicting Porto and Sporting to be knocked out and look how I ranked Braga. I definitely think it's wrong to bet on teams of big leagues just because of that, but it's equally wrong to be a football hipster and try to convince everyone of the opposite just to seem knowledgeable. I believe I'm somewhere in the middle.
hertolo wrote:
My points are just their results. Plus, I merely ranked them, didn't rate them. If you're saying I'm wrong, then could you point out where? Who am I overrating, Krasnodar? Olympiakos? Should they be behind Basel?
Of course, since Basel won a lot more in the last five years than these two teams. And that's really the only way to rate teams since comparing the strength of current teams becomes more of a guesswork. Market value is a hint, but then so many other factors apply.
Of course it's guesswork, I'm not claiming to know an absolute truth, this is just my opinion. And I'm not the Portuguese user who always talks about transfer values (criticizing them, but paying more attention to them than anyone else...), I ranked Sparta Praha over several teams I bet have more valuable squads. ;)
hertolo wrote:
Well, if it's about disrespectful language, let it be known it was not my intention. But if "St-Étienne" should be smiling" is offensive, then the internet is really becoming a place where you can't say anything without offending someone. I've said nothing about Basel I wouldn't say even more about Braga who I'm supporting in the EL.
It's disrespectful since it's condescending. Had you written they "can count themselves lucky" or they "should be happy" it would have been a lot better since both teams can be that, namely content with the draw. Smiling however has the connotation of looking down on someone and being relieved. There's so much in language that I agree with you the internet can be nervebreaking. I've always experienced this forum however as quite polite (exceptions apply).
Again I stress I didn't mean any disrespect. Being happy and smiling isn't different to me, one leads to the other. Again, what I said about drawing Basel, I say the same about Sion drawing Braga. Sion can smile a lot about that draw.
hertolo wrote:In the end, I will not partake in a quote war, but I simply had to react to that "smiling" statement. These "back and forths" don't lead anywhere once the basic arguments have been exchanged and I guess that means you are allowed to one round back again, but I do hope you see my points ;-)
Fair enough, I don't really want a quote war either but I also felt I was being unfairly attacked and had to defend my point. It's easy to say "you're wrong" without saying why and that's why I challenged you and overgame to rank the teams like I did. Being Swiss, you know Basel better than us, maybe they are better than what they've shown so far this season, I honestly hope you're right.
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