National league predictions

[Aramand]

• HOLLAND (243 of 306 games played) = 79% accuracy
  
  1) PSV (69+17) = 86
  2) Feyenoord (62+17) = 79
  ---------------------
  3) AZ (58+17) = 73
  4) Ajax (49+13) = 62
  5) Groningen (44+10) = 54
  ---------------------
  6) Utrecht (43+11) = 54
  7) Heerenveen (43+10) = 53

Next round:

• 10-Mar Utrecht x Heerenveen
  12-Mar Ajax x PSV

Title

• The title should be claimed by PSV as soon has they complete 32nd round.

Second place

• Feyenoord is the prime candidate to second, since it has more points and one more home game to play than AZ. Third place is secured between AZ and Feyenoord.

Fourth place

• Ajax will probably finish fourth, without the need of a good final run in the league.

Fifth place

• This is one of the most undecided places being decided between the following 3 teams. Utrecht with one more home game to come may suffer a relative boost.

Map of most probable events

• Round 31
  AZ secures atleast third
  Round 33
  PSV becomes champion
  Ajax secures fourth
  

Note: This was edited to reflect a greater margin of error. Most of what was written was almost the same with events predicted to happen sooner.

[Giuseppe]

I've compiled this table for the Romanian first division using your system. NOTE - only 50% have been played so far; all teams have played 7 matches at home and 8 matches away or viceversa.

ROMANIA

1) Dinamo (32 + 32) = 64
------------------------------
2) Steaua (31 + 31) = 62
3) FC National (27 + 27) = 54
------------------------------
4) CFR Cluj (26 + 25) = 51
5) Rapid (25 + 26) = 51
6) Poli Timisoara (26 + 24) = 50
7) FC Arges (25 + 25) = 50
8) Farul Constanta (23 + 23) = 46
-------------------------------
13) Jiul Petrosani (12 + 11) = 23
14) FCM Bacau (12 + 11) = 23
-------------------------------
15) Otelul Galati (9 + 9) = 18
16) FC Vaslui (6 + 6) = 12

So practically with only 50% of the matches played this prediction table is almost identical to the current standings. The only notable difference is that Poli Timisoara goes down from 4th to 6th.

[Aramand]

I have noted that some projections are very good if they covered atleast 2/3 of one league. The problem is that normally in each half of the leagues, all teams play against each other so a better estimate would be 3/4, since by then most of the teams have played against half of the opponents twice, dwindling the margin of error came from the distribuition of games in the calendar of each team.

From http://www.rsssf.com/tablesn/ned06.html it is noted that dutch teams may not qualify to UEFA competitions directly just because of their last league positions. Since the form of access is different in each country, some may confirm the method of access in UEFA competitions for their favorite leagues following info available in sites like this.

About the projection posted, 50%, has mentioned above, is a bit low to be accurate, but the main goal of any projection is not just to show numbers, but to expose something that the common observer are not easily aware of bringing something racional and related to the truth into discussion. By then you have noted that one team, roughly, is weaker than what is shown in league standings, since the league is a ranking, a relation between all elements, you may notice that others are roughly expected to claim the status of the declining teams.

Another league that achieved atleast 75% completion

• FRANCE (287 of 380 games played) = 76% accuracy
  
  1) Lyon (62+22) = 84
  2) Bordeaux (53+19) = 72
  ---------------------------
  3) Lille (50+15) = 65
  ---------------------------
  4) Auxerre (47+16) = 63
  5) PSG (42+15) = 57
  ---------------------------
  6) Le Mans (42+12) = 54
  7) Rennes (41+13) = 54
  8) Nice (40+14) = 54

Next round:

• 11-Mar Auxerre x Nice

Title

• Lyon will claim the title after completing 35 rounds.

Second place

• Will probably be reached by Bordeaux since Lille is behind with one more game played, being secured by the 37th round.

Third place

• Is to be decided between Lille and Auxerre, with possibly Auxerre narrowing the distance to Lille since they will have one more game home. Fourth place is to be secured between them.

Fifth place

• Expected a boost from PSG since they have one less game played than Le Mans. The other candidates are mainly Rennes and Nice.

Map of most probable events

• Round 35
  Lyons claims the title
  Round 36
  Lille secures atleast fourth
  Round 37
  Bordeaux secures second

Note: This post was edited to consider a greater margin of error, increasing accuracy.

[Aramand]

• PORTUGAL (224 of 306 games played) = 73%
  
  1) FC Porto (54+19) = 73
  2) Sporting (52+19) = 71
  ----------------------------
  3) Benfica (49+17) = 66
  ----------------------------
  4) Braga (48+17) = 65
  5) Boavista (45+16) = 61
  ----------------------------
  6) Nacional (43+16) = 59
  7) Setúbal (39+14) = 53

Next round:

• 10-March Setúbal vs FC Porto
  12-March Sporting vs Boavista

Title candidates

• The portuguese title should be decided between FC Porto and Sporting, with Benfica lagging behind since it has played more home games than Sporting and the difference to FC Porto is now difficult to manage, the same applies to Braga.
  I its expected that Benfica will try to reach atleast second place until 33th round, being the last round the main decision between FC Porto and Sporting.
  FC Porto is by now the favorite by a very low margin over Sporting.

Third place

• For third place Benfica has to worry until the end of the season with direct contenders Braga, who may mark their first ever presence in Champions League qualifying round, and Boavista who suffered a boost in the last rounds. By 33th round Boavista will be out of the run unless they get another boost.

Fifth place

• Nacional is now sixth with a possible chance to reach fifth and return to UEFA Cup. Setúbal is not seen has a threat even for sixth place, being out of chance by 32nd round and just trying to finish their league season in a good position. Boavista is still seen has the most probable in this place.

Map of most probable events

• Round 32
  Boavista secures atleast sixth
  Round 33
  FC Porto secure atleast second, Benfica out of the title run
  Nacional out for fourth
  Braga out for second, secures atleast fifth

http://era-uma-vez-a-vida.blogspot.com/

• PORTUGAL>2nd League (225/306) = 74%
  
  1) Beira-Mar (50+19) = 69
  2) Aves (43+15) = 58
  ---------------------------
  2) Olhanense (43+15) = 58
  4) Leixões (41+16) = 57
  5) Santa Clara (39+15) = 54

Next round:

• 12-March Olhanense vs Aves
  12-March Santa Clara vs Leixões

Title

• The title shall be claimed by leaders Beira-Mar by the end of the 31st round.

Second place

• The second place gives access to next year’s main league, being undefined who is the favorite between Aves and Olhanense. Leixões has more one game to play home which may improve their chances. Santa Clara and followers have now very low chances to qualify.

Map of most probable events

• Round 31
  Beira-Mar becomes second league champion

Note: This post was edited to account for a greater margin of error.

• This projection is based on methods using mostly the results achieved by each team during the present domestic season until the date of publication or other if stated. Has any projection, it is not intended to be taken has a fact. It's value is mostly informative of the mean performance of each team and the possible goals predicted at the mentioned date.
  The information shown may change if the performance of one team changes abruptly.