Nations League

[Sao]

Holland's WCQs in 2014 + 3rd place finish at the final event.
Croatia, Iceland and Wales haven't made it quite yet. This cycle Wales dropped points in 5 games while Holland in "only" 4 games. Wales need to drop points in their final game while Holland need a win against Sweden. Luckily it doesn't have to be a win by 7 goals. We will miss you in Russia.

[Overgame]

Netherlands needs a 7 goals win to qualify for the playoffs, but a smaller win can give them the 12th place if the ranking, i.e. a spot in the Nations League. A win is 1600 points + 20 points per GD, a draw is 800 points and a loss is 400 points - 20 points per GD. So the difference between tre results are :
Win vs Win : GD x20.
Win vs Draw : 800 + GD x20.
Win vs Loss : 1200 + GD x20
Draw vs Loss : 400 + GD x20
Draw vs Draw : equal
Loss vs Loss : GD x20

The top 9 is "safe" (Germany Portugal Belgium Spain Switzerland England France Italy Poland). Poland has more than 31000 points.

10th Iceland 29514.84. Home vs Kosovo.
11th Croatia 29498.64. Away in Ukraine.
12th Russia 29258.15 (final)
13th Wales 28888.73. They need 380 points to pass Russia. Home vs Ireland.
14th the Netherlands 28225.55. They need 1040 points to pass Russia. They need 680 points to pass Wales. Home vs Sweden.
15th Sweden 28126.92. They need 1140 points to pass Russia. They need 780 points to pass Wales. Away in the Netherlands.
16th Ukraine 27926.47. They need 1340 points to pass Russia. They need 980 points to pass Wales. Home vs Croatia.
17th Austria 27798.55. They need 1460 points to pass Russia. They need 1100 points to pass Wales. Away in Moldova.
18th Slovakia 26894.21. They need 2380 points to pass Russia.

Ukraine can theorically pass Croatia with a 10-0 win, but I will drop this kind of result for simplicity.

Iceland is virtually safe, playing at home vs Kosovo. the Netherlands (Sweden) can only pass them if :
-Iceland loses and the Netherlands (Sweden) win and the total GD is 5 (6).

Croatia is almost safe, the Netherlands (Sweden) can only pass them if
-Croatia loses and the Netherlands (Sweden) win and the total GD is 4 (5).

Keep this in mind, but I will keep it simple and assume that Iceland doesn't lose vs Kosovo, Croatia isn't trashed by Ukraine and the GD Netherlands - Sweden is really low. If, at any moment, Croatia is 2 goals down or the Netherlands (Sweden) are 3 (4) goals up, Croatia will be involved in the battle.

The 12th spot is wide open. The 12th will be
Russia if :
-Wales loses by 2 or more goals and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw and Ukraine doesn't win and Austria doesn't win.

Wales if :
-They win
-They draw and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw.
-They lose by one goal and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw and Ukraine doesn't win and Austria doesn't win.

the Netherlands if :
-They win and Wales doesn't win.

Sweden if :
-They win and Wales doesn't win.

Ukraine if :
-They win and Wales loses and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw and Austria doesn't win.
-They win and Wales loses and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw and Austria win but the global GD is 6 or lower.

Austria if :
-They win and Wales loses and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw and Ukraine doesn't win.
-They win and Wales loses and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw and Ukraine win but the global GD is 7 or more.


I hope that I haven't made any mistake.

[Fish1987]

Thanks for the detailed analysis Overgame. So now in addition to watching Serbia vs. Georgia, worrying about Ukraine vs. Croatia, Scotland/Slovenia/Slovakia, and if Gibraltar can somehow draw with Greece, I need to look out for another 5 matches this week!

[Sao]

Thanks for the detailed analysis Overgame. So now in addition to watching Serbia vs. Georgia, worrying about Ukraine vs. Croatia, Scotland/Slovenia/Slovakia, and if Gibraltar can somehow draw with Greece, I need to look out for another 5 matches this week!

France v. Belarus is also extremely important. Belarus can still move up a league if they win. They might just gift France the win to stay in League D and try their luck reaching the EURO2020 play-offs that way. Look out for matchfixing because this is that France side that couldn't win against Luxembourg

[Polak]

I'll be honest, even though I had a look at the UEFA website for an explanation, I still have no idea how this UEFA National League works.

Is somebody able to explain it to me in basic terms?

I understand there will be 10 groups, 5 groups with 6 teams in them and 5 groups with 5 teams. The top 2 in each group will qualify, right? Then there will be 4 more places up for grabs. Is this then somehow determined by the UEFA Nations League, or am I completely confused?

[Forza AZ]

I'll be honest, even though I had a look at the UEFA website for an explanation, I still have no idea how this UEFA National League works.

Is somebody able to explain it to me in basic terms?

I understand there will be 10 groups, 5 groups with 6 teams in them and 5 groups with 5 teams. The top 2 in each group will qualify, right? Then there will be 4 more places up for grabs. Is this then somehow determined by the UEFA Nations League, or am I completely confused?

The Nations League will be played in 4 Divisions based on the UEFA ranking. Countries 1-12 in Division A, 13-24 in B, 25-39 in C and 40-55 in D.

In each Division there will be 4 groups of 3 or 4 countries. Winners will be promoted (winners in A qualified for semi finals), last placed teams relegated.

Also the best 4 teams in each division that don't qualify for Euro 2020 via the regular qualifying will earn a spot in the play-offs (if there are less then 4 teams left in a Division the next best teams in the Division below will also qualify). These 16 countries will play 2 play-off rounds (countries from the same Division play each other) to determine the last 4 teams for Euro 2020.

[Club-Mate]

Just to mention that the average Larry never will understand the meaning of Nation League it's to complicated for him.

[HibeeJibee]

The Nations League will be played in 4 Divisions based on the UEFA ranking. Countries 1-12 in Division A, 13-24 in B, 25-39 in C and 40-55 in D.

In each Division there will be 4 groups of 3 or 4 countries. Winners will be promoted (winners in A qualified for semi finals), last placed teams relegated.

Except in 'Division C'... where worst 2nd-bottom in sections C2-C4 might also go down, and bottom in C1 survive.

[Overgame]

Netherlands needs a 7 goals win to qualify for the playoffs, but a smaller win can give them the 12th place if the ranking, i.e. a spot in the Nations League. A win is 1600 points + 20 points per GD, a draw is 800 points and a loss is 400 points - 20 points per GD. So the difference between tre results are :
Win vs Win : GD x20.
Win vs Draw : 800 + GD x20.
Win vs Loss : 1200 + GD x20
Draw vs Loss : 400 + GD x20
Draw vs Draw : equal
Loss vs Loss : GD x20

The top 9 is "safe" (Germany Portugal Belgium Spain Switzerland England France Italy Poland). Poland has more than 31000 points.

10th Iceland 29514.84. Home vs Kosovo.
11th Croatia 29498.64. Away in Ukraine.
12th Russia 29258.15 (final)
13th Wales 28888.73. They need 380 points to pass Russia. Home vs Ireland.
14th the Netherlands 28225.55. They need 1040 points to pass Russia. They need 680 points to pass Wales. Home vs Sweden.
15th Sweden 28126.92. They need 1140 points to pass Russia. They need 780 points to pass Wales. Away in the Netherlands.
16th Ukraine 27926.47. They need 1340 points to pass Russia. They need 980 points to pass Wales. Home vs Croatia.
17th Austria 27798.55. They need 1460 points to pass Russia. They need 1100 points to pass Wales. Away in Moldova.
18th Slovakia 26894.21. They need 2380 points to pass Russia.

Ukraine can theorically pass Croatia with a 10-0 win, but I will drop this kind of result for simplicity.

Iceland is virtually safe, playing at home vs Kosovo. the Netherlands (Sweden) can only pass them if :
-Iceland loses and the Netherlands (Sweden) win and the total GD is 5 (6).

Croatia is almost safe, the Netherlands (Sweden) can only pass them if
-Croatia loses and the Netherlands (Sweden) win and the total GD is 4 (5).

Keep this in mind, but I will keep it simple and assume that Iceland doesn't lose vs Kosovo, Croatia isn't trashed by Ukraine and the GD Netherlands - Sweden is really low. If, at any moment, Croatia is 2 goals down or the Netherlands (Sweden) are 3 (4) goals up, Croatia will be involved in the battle.

The 12th spot is wide open. The 12th will be
Russia if :
-Wales loses by 2 or more goals and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw and Ukraine doesn't win and Austria doesn't win.

Wales if :
-They win
-They draw and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw.
-They lose by one goal and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw and Ukraine doesn't win and Austria doesn't win.

the Netherlands if :
-They win and Wales doesn't win.

Sweden if :
-They win and Wales doesn't win.

Ukraine if :
-They win and Wales loses and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw and Austria doesn't win.
-They win and Wales loses and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw and Austria win but the global GD is 6 or lower.

Austria if :
-They win and Wales loses and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw and Ukraine doesn't win.
-They win and Wales loses and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw and Ukraine win but the global GD is 7 or more.


I hope that I haven't made any mistake.

The situation is now really simple, the 12th will be the winner of the Netherlands - Sweden, or Austria if they draw.

Division B : Hungary is 24th if they win by 4 goals or more at home vs Andorra, Turkey is 24th in otherwise.

Division C : Belarus is 39th if they win by 2 goals or more away in France, Lithuania is 39th otherwise.

[amirbachar]

I'll be honest, even though I had a look at the UEFA website for an explanation, I still have no idea how this UEFA National League works.

Is somebody able to explain it to me in basic terms?

I understand there will be 10 groups, 5 groups with 6 teams in them and 5 groups with 5 teams. The top 2 in each group will qualify, right? Then there will be 4 more places up for grabs. Is this then somehow determined by the UEFA Nations League, or am I completely confused?

The Nations League will be played in 4 Divisions based on the UEFA ranking. Countries 1-12 in Division A, 13-24 in B, 25-39 in C and 40-55 in D.

In each Division there will be 4 groups of 3 or 4 countries. Winners will be promoted (winners in A qualified for semi finals), last placed teams relegated.

Also the best 4 teams in each division that don't qualify for Euro 2020 via the regular qualifying will earn a spot in the play-offs (if there are less then 4 teams left in a Division the next best teams in the Division below will also qualify). These 16 countries will play 2 play-off rounds (countries from the same Division play each other) to determine the last 4 teams for Euro 2020.

That's a simplification, but it's not entirely true. Group winners are guaranteed to play teams from their league or lower one, non group winners are not guaranteed that.

[amirbachar]

The Nations League will be played in 4 Divisions based on the UEFA ranking. Countries 1-12 in Division A, 13-24 in B, 25-39 in C and 40-55 in D.

In each Division there will be 4 groups of 3 or 4 countries. Winners will be promoted (winners in A qualified for semi finals), last placed teams relegated.

Except in 'Division C'... where worst 2nd-bottom in sections C2-C4 might also go down, and bottom in C1 survive.

That's true, but it almost surely won't happen, since the criteria is points and not average points.

[kaerin]

So where will Turkey be in this? Division B or C?

[amirbachar]

Netherlands needs a 7 goals win to qualify for the playoffs, but a smaller win can give them the 12th place if the ranking, i.e. a spot in the Nations League. A win is 1600 points + 20 points per GD, a draw is 800 points and a loss is 400 points - 20 points per GD. So the difference between tre results are :
Win vs Win : GD x20.
Win vs Draw : 800 + GD x20.
Win vs Loss : 1200 + GD x20
Draw vs Loss : 400 + GD x20
Draw vs Draw : equal
Loss vs Loss : GD x20

The top 9 is "safe" (Germany Portugal Belgium Spain Switzerland England France Italy Poland). Poland has more than 31000 points.

10th Iceland 29514.84. Home vs Kosovo.
11th Croatia 29498.64. Away in Ukraine.
12th Russia 29258.15 (final)
13th Wales 28888.73. They need 380 points to pass Russia. Home vs Ireland.
14th the Netherlands 28225.55. They need 1040 points to pass Russia. They need 680 points to pass Wales. Home vs Sweden.
15th Sweden 28126.92. They need 1140 points to pass Russia. They need 780 points to pass Wales. Away in the Netherlands.
16th Ukraine 27926.47. They need 1340 points to pass Russia. They need 980 points to pass Wales. Home vs Croatia.
17th Austria 27798.55. They need 1460 points to pass Russia. They need 1100 points to pass Wales. Away in Moldova.
18th Slovakia 26894.21. They need 2380 points to pass Russia.

Ukraine can theorically pass Croatia with a 10-0 win, but I will drop this kind of result for simplicity.

Iceland is virtually safe, playing at home vs Kosovo. the Netherlands (Sweden) can only pass them if :
-Iceland loses and the Netherlands (Sweden) win and the total GD is 5 (6).

Croatia is almost safe, the Netherlands (Sweden) can only pass them if
-Croatia loses and the Netherlands (Sweden) win and the total GD is 4 (5).

Keep this in mind, but I will keep it simple and assume that Iceland doesn't lose vs Kosovo, Croatia isn't trashed by Ukraine and the GD Netherlands - Sweden is really low. If, at any moment, Croatia is 2 goals down or the Netherlands (Sweden) are 3 (4) goals up, Croatia will be involved in the battle.

The 12th spot is wide open. The 12th will be
Russia if :
-Wales loses by 2 or more goals and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw and Ukraine doesn't win and Austria doesn't win.

Wales if :
-They win
-They draw and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw.
-They lose by one goal and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw and Ukraine doesn't win and Austria doesn't win.

the Netherlands if :
-They win and Wales doesn't win.

Sweden if :
-They win and Wales doesn't win.

Ukraine if :
-They win and Wales loses and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw and Austria doesn't win.
-They win and Wales loses and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw and Austria win but the global GD is 6 or lower.

Austria if :
-They win and Wales loses and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw and Ukraine doesn't win.
-They win and Wales loses and the Netherlands - Sweden is a draw and Ukraine win but the global GD is 7 or more.


I hope that I haven't made any mistake.

The situation is now really simple, the 12th will be the winner of the Netherlands - Sweden, or Austria if they draw.

Division B : Hungary is 24th if they win by 4 goals or more at home vs Andorra, Turkey is 24th in otherwise.

Division C : Belarus is 39th if they win by 2 goals or more away in France, Lithuania is 39th otherwise.

I would be very interested in a simulation to determine what would give Hungry a better chance of qualifying to EURO 2020 - being in Division B or C?

[amirbachar]

So where will Turkey be in this? Division B or C?

Turkey depends on Hungry, if they beat Andorra by 4 goals then Turkey will be in Division C, otherwise Division B:
http://www.footballseeding.com/national ... king-2017/

[kaerin]

So where will Turkey be in this? Division B or C?

Turkey depends on Hungry, if they beat Andorra by 4 goals then Turkey will be in Division C, otherwise Division B:
http://www.footballseeding.com/national ... king-2017/

thanks!