Third European Cup plans (2021- )

[bert.kassies]

I'm sure many will disagree, but I think the new format is not too bad.

At least it eases the congestion on the EL qualifying calendar by two weeks, which is a big improvement.

More clubs in the group stages is also much wanted.

For the big guys the new EL2 might be too small, but I'm quite sure that many of the Dutch clubs who failed to qualify for the EL group stage, would have enjoyed to take part in the new EL2 group stage. And I think that's true for many other clubs of medium ranked countries.

The overall format is a bit complicated (but so is the current format). But as long as domestic football is too important to give more dates to European football, and as long as we don't introduce real European leagues, it will stay like this (I think).

So, you are sure to play in a group stage once you reach CH-Q3 or EL-PO.

[HibeeJibee]

The Scotsman newspaper:

UEFA will leave it to individual associations to decide the criteria for earning a place, be it through league placing or cup.

Is that correct? Domestic FA cups could lose slot?

[Gorandinho]

That would be the death of domestic cups

[bert.kassies]

Or does it mean that the top-15 ranked associations can decide to enter the cup winner in EL or EL2?

There is no official statement on domestic cup winners, as far as I know.

[HibeeJibee]

I noticed the Access List didn't feature "CW"... just "N2" and downward.

Hopefully cup winners retain best non-CL slot.

[og2002gr]

Some points I like:

- all competitions have same format (same number of teams, same number of groups)
- there will be interest until MD6 for most EL groups since 1st place give you 1 round boost, while 3rd place gets you to EL2.
- I am not sure EL1 will be much harder than EL2. Many non-champions could be more competitive than champions and CL left-overs.
- in case co-efficient rewards are balanced between the competitions, teams taking EL2 seriously can concentrate many points easier climbing ranking and having better shot in EL1 or CL in the following year.

Some points I don't like:

- group winners skipping a round
- I would prefer more linear access list
- teams having 3 chances to enter GS

[nogomet]

The biggest losers are countries from 16-24. Non-champions from these countries are totally excluded from the Europa League, do not have any kind of safety net and will not have an easier access to the group stage of EL2.

Countries below 25th place don't have this either, but at least their champions will have a lot more chances of reaching some kind of a group stage. Countries from 16 to 24 do not need this help.

Croatia will not be happy.

[HibeeJibee]

Does this explain why they have put EL final back 1 week from this season, so EL2 final can be played on Wednesday before?

[Lilywhite]

Decided to do a simulation for the new "EL2" as well. The assumptions I made (retrospectively applied to EU1 as well):

Seeded teams have a 60% chance of qualifying, unless they have double the number of coefficient points needed to be seeded (80%) or treble it (95%)
Teams which are eliminated before the group stage of the 'easier' Europa League in real life, will not progress beyond the round they were eliminated in in the simulation
Teams which reached the Europa League group stage in real life are guarenteed to at least make the group stage of EL2
Teams which reached the EL Playoff in real life are guarenteed to at least reach the EL2 third qualifying round - teams making Third QR in real life at least the EL2 Second QR.

This ended up with the following pots and groups for EL2:

Pot 1:
Sevilla
Zenit St. Petersburg
Basel
Besiktas
Sparta Prague
Copenhagen
Braga
APOEL Nicosia

Pot 2:
AA Gent
Legia Warsaw
Maccabi Tel-Aviv
Feyernoord
RB Leipzig
Partizan Belgrade
Burnley
Rijeka

Pot 3:
Atalanta
Sheriff Tiraspol
Bordeaux
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Zorya Luhansk
Rosenborg
Vorskla Poltava
HJK Helsinki

Pot 4:
Akhisarspor
Jablonec
The New Saints
CFR Cluj
Rangers
Shkëndija
Trnava
Dudelange

Group A:
Braga
Burnley
Zorya Luhansk
Trnava

Group B:
Sparta Prague
Feyernoord
Atalanta
Jablonec

Group C:
Besiktas
Maccabi Tel-Aviv
Rosenborg
Rangers

Group D:
APOEL
AA Gent
Vorskla Poltava
Akhisarspor

Group E:
Sevilla
Rijeka
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Shkëndija

Group F:
Copenhagen
Partizan Belgrade
HJK Helsinki
CFR Cluj

Group G:
Zenit St. Petersburg
Legia Warsaw
Sheriff Tiraspol
Dudelange

Group H:
Basel
RB Leipzig
Bordeaux
The New Saints


Honestly, a bit of a higher standard than I expected, with B and H in particular looking like groups which would be considered strong even for the current Europa League! Great to see TNS finally qualify but I would not fancy their chances in that one!!!

[Forza AZ]

Does this explain why they have put EL final back 1 week from this season, so EL2 final can be played on Wednesday before?

No, I think that is just to have 1 more midweek for domestic matches in the end of the season.

I read that all 3 finals will be played in the same week in the 2021-22 season.

[Forza AZ]

That would be the death of domestic cups

I think the national FA's won't easily strip the CW from a European spot, since then the cup they organise will be devaluated.

Clubs just below the top might favour an extra spot via the league, but most other clubs won't back this since they lose a shot at Europe by winning the Cup.

[fruki]

I tried to make a simulation for the league route qualifying for EL2 (using this year's coefficients and teams), and this the seeding for the playoff round.



This looks remarkably similar to the current EL qualifying. So apart from the champions, the path for other teams to qualify in the group stage almost won't be any easier. And the vast majority of teams certainly won't be from the smaller nations.

[Lilywhite]

I tried to make a simulation for the league route qualifying for EL2 (using this year's coefficients and teams), and this the seeding for the playoff round.



This looks remarkably similar to the current EL qualifying. So apart from the champions, the path for other teams to qualify in the group stage almost won't be any easier. And the vast majority of teams certainly won't be from the smaller nations.

I could be wrong but to me it looks like you've assumed all the seeded sides will win the earlier qualifiers, when of course sometimes they won't.

The advantage for smaller nations is having their Champions get a realistic chance of European football. Honestly, the Champions Path for UEL2 is so weak that I think almost anyone with the exception of teams from Andorra and San Marino could get through it at least occasionally.

[Funkmaster]

I tried to make a simulation for the league route qualifying for EL2 (using this year's coefficients and teams), and this the seeding for the playoff round.



This looks remarkably similar to the current EL qualifying. So apart from the champions, the path for other teams to qualify in the group stage almost won't be any easier. And the vast majority of teams certainly won't be from the smaller nations.

Thank you for your work, but I think you forgot that Feyenoord, Olympiakos and Rapid would start in EL1-Q3. In this round they would face the loosers from CL-Q2. So Feyenoord and Olympiakos shouldn´t be in EL2-PO, if you assume that every seeded win its tie. So the seeding line would be 2 spots down between Rijeka and Atalanta.

But a lot depends on how they are going to arrange the draws. If they do the draw for EL2-PO after EL2-Q3 is finished, the seeding line will be very low.

[Overgame]

There are 16 mors teams in a GS now. They gave 8 more spots to the champions and 8 to the non-champions. Why do you complain ? Sometimes, I wonder what you do really want. More spots for your teams ? Great, that's exactly how you kill a competition.

CL is unchanged. When you see the prize money and the audience, we can understand why.
EL becomes a CL2.
EL2 is just EL rebranded.

I can understand the logic :
1) Old EL doesn't sell good. Most group are unbalanced for teams from top countries. They are trying to make the group interresting.
2) 5 champions out of 8 from the champion path are already out in ELGS, one needs an away win in Turkey to progress, one needs a draw in France to progress and only Celtic has a decent shot.
3) On the other hand, only 2 teams out of 13 from the main path are already eliminated (the 2 teams from Cyprus) and 5 out of 22 from the direct spots.

So they reduced the direct spots and removed the spots from the champions by fusing the qualifiers. On the other hand, they have to open the GS to more countries, so they gave extra spots to the champions, and getting access to a GS is a bit easier for non-champions.

Again, why would anyone complain ? Croatia ? Most of the time, with the exception of Dinamo, the teams wouldn't qualify for any GS. For the champion, now they will have to lose THREE ties in a row to not join a GS. The non-champions will have a higher chance to join the EL2GS.