SHEV wrote: ↑Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:56
Stats are great and all, but if you've watched the actual game Portugal wasn't all that dangerous and Ukraine had single best opportunity to score. Luxembourg wasn't fun for anyone in this group.
But the main point is that both of those games were played over a year ago and doesn't mean anything today. Serbia game was a friendly with 3 out of 4 our best players missing and almost no motivation.
Obviously, Netherlands are a huge favorite and almost certainly win the game, but saying they're better than Portugal is bonkers. They missed two last tournaments and barely beat and drawn the mighty Northern Ireland very recently.
I said Netherlands have a better attacking potential than Portugal. They score many goals and do not have as much problems with scoring like Portugal do.
Who is better of the two does not matter in the end. In both scenarios I expect Netherlands to beat Ukraine comfortably.
xavier_ wrote: ↑Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:43Germany, Italy, France, Spain... they've been there so many times, played each other so many times. The tournament needs some fresh blood, some upsets. Will the upsets come from the teams from the playoffs? maybe so, maybe not. But you've got to mixed it up, bring new teams, new people to the euro. EURO is a celebration of European football, that goes beyond German, French, Italian, or Spanish borders.
Then maybe a 32-team top notch quality tournament in 2028...?
"Put it in your signature to save you the trouble of writing it over and over again."
Who is better of the two does not matter in the end. In both scenarios I expect Netherlands to beat Ukraine comfortably.
Which in turn does not matter in the end because unless this group gets Portugal both teams will qualify to the last 16 where the actual tournament on neutral venues will start.
But we'll see how comfortable will Netherlands be. They haven't been comfortable for a while in any game, I'm glad they have Ukraine now to provide said comfort.
Who is better of the two does not matter in the end. In both scenarios I expect Netherlands to beat Ukraine comfortably.
Which in turn does not matter in the end because unless this group gets Portugal both teams will qualify to the last 16 where the actual tournament on neutral venues will start.
But we'll see how comfortable will Netherlands be. They haven't been comfortable for a while in any game, I'm glad they have Ukraine now to provide said comfort.
It matters, because the winner of group C plays against one of the 3rd placed teams in R16, while the runner-up plays the winner of group A, which is likely to be Italy.
And it also matters for FIFA points that Netherlands need to secure pot 1 in WC qualifying. The motivation for my post was Ed's displeasement with Netherlands not beating Northern Ireland. I said they are better off, because now they have an easier group ahead of them, with high weighted games for ranking, which will in turn bring them more points than beating N.Ireland would have.
nogomet wrote: ↑Sat Nov 23, 2019 11:24
It matters, because the winner of group C plays against one of the 3rd placed teams in R16, while the runner-up plays the winner of group A, which is likely to be Italy.
And it also matters for FIFA points that Netherlands need to secure pot 1 in WC qualifying. The motivation for my post was Ed's displeasement with Netherlands not beating Northern Ireland. I said they are better off, because now they have an easier group ahead of them, with high weighted games for ranking, which will in turn bring them more points than beating N.Ireland would have.
Fair point.
I'm sorry, but now we will have to destroy Netherlands
seso wrote: ↑Sat Nov 23, 2019 04:24
Imo the Nations League is a good idea for extra competitive matches, but then the top teams from each League should play against each other to determine which four teams will get the remaining Euro 2020 places.
Exactly that is happening right now, isn't it?
Anyways the change is really not that big, instead of the 24 best European teams, we have the 22-23 best teams and one smaller team from league D.
Does it really matter that much if we get Georgia or Kosovo instead of the 24th best team? Both of them only have a theoretical chance to survive the group stage anyways.
At least his way league D is more meaningful and you do something nice to the minnows.
Why UEFA paired Path A - Path D?
Wales, Finland and Winner Path D are not hosts
Wales and Finland could go to groups C or F, and Winner Path D to group A
njp23 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 23, 2019 12:08
Why UEFA paired Path A - Path D?
Wales, Finland and Winner Path D are not hosts
Wales and Finland could go to groups C or F, and Winner Path D to group A
seso wrote: ↑Sat Nov 23, 2019 04:24
Imo the Nations League is a good idea for extra competitive matches, but then the top teams from each League should play against each other to determine which four teams will get the remaining Euro 2020 places.
Exactly that is happening right now, isn't it?
Anyways the change is really not that big, instead of the 24 best European teams, we have the 22-23 best teams and one smaller team from league D.
njp23 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 23, 2019 12:08
Why UEFA paired Path A - Path D?
Wales, Finland and Winner Path D are not hosts
Wales and Finland could go to groups C or F, and Winner Path D to group A
If they had paired path A with Wales or Finland, then they would only know where they have to play their matches in March. Now they know next week.
Path D is not a problem, since the winner is also only known in March, so they can't make travel preparations any way before that.
The big Norwegian favourites is what jumps out to me, also compared to bookmakers.
Norway is clear favourites (68.30% - 31.70%) at home against Serbia in the simulations despite being ranked 15 spots lower on ELO. Bookmakers mostly has it as 50/50%. In the other matches, the home advantage also seems to be stronger in the simulations with several teams more than 70% favourites, where bookmakers are mostly around 60%.
I would then have thought that home advantage would matter similarly much in the final, so I'm a bit surprised that Iceland/Romania and Slovakia/Ireland combined have markedly better chances of winning their final than their opponents despite playing away. I know they are higher ranked than their opponents, but so is Serbia in Norway and are still clear underdogs.
seso wrote: ↑Sat Nov 23, 2019 04:24
Imo the Nations League is a good idea for extra competitive matches, but then the top teams from each League should play against each other to determine which four teams will get the remaining Euro 2020 places.
Exactly that is happening right now, isn't it?
Anyways the change is really not that big, instead of the 24 best European teams, we have the 22-23 best teams and one smaller team from league D.
So, it's not what is happening right now, right?
It is, from each league the top teams are fighting each other for the last places.
