Euro 2020

[rpo.castro]

130€ is not nothing!

last time I went to Russia, I had to pay around 100 € per person and I was upset about this.

But if there wasn't EU you would have to pay this for a lot more countries. Its what it is. We pay too many taxes (and in Portugal we have the higher taxes-in % of individual income).

[Ed]

Did I say 'somewhere this month' ? I meant 'somewhere this week'

Here are complete detailed simulations of the EURO 2020 (plus qualification play-offs): http://www.football-rankings.info/2019/ ... -2019.html

[nogomet]

Did I say 'somewhere this month' ? I meant 'somewhere this week'

Here are complete detailed simulations of the EURO 2020 (plus qualification play-offs): http://www.football-rankings.info/2019/ ... -2019.html

So out of the projected third-placed teams, the simulations suggest:

Switzerland
Germany
Poland
Austria

should qualify for the R16, while

Russia
Czechia

should be the two eliminated third-placed teams.

That means that the projected knockout bracket looks like this:

Denmark - Poland
Italy - Ukraine

France - Switzerland
Croatia - Sweden
--
Spain - Austria
England - Portugal

Netherlands - Germany
Belgium - Turkey


Suddenly, the Dutch route looks incredibly difficult. I like Croatia's bracket, but would prefer that France and Germany switch places. In that case I could see a path for us leading all the way to the final.

[Lorric]

Pretty sobering as I thought it would be. The home semis and final do have an effect, but our odds are actually lower than I thought they'd be. Only 8th most likely to get to the semis, which improves to 6th most likely to be in the final and 5th most likely to win the trophy. But it's only a 7.21% chance of victory. It's pretty open in terms of winner though, and I think it's more other teams eating into the 100% than clear cut favourites, with even top dog Spain only at 15.6%.

I'm surprised Denmark can get over Belgium in their group with home advantage but Germany can't get over France or Portugal.

Turkey even without winning their group still have surprisingly high success chances.

[Vidibreovo]

(Serbian citizens need visa for UK 130€, 2 weeks waiting...)

as if that's gonna stop anyone

Yeah, especialy if you know that average salary in Serbia is around 430€....

[Ed]

I'm surprised Denmark can get over Belgium in their group with home advantage but Germany can't get over France or Portugal.

Belgium has two away matches in the group and that's elo-ratingwise a bad situation for them. In my opinion that explains Belgium's unexpected low probabilities in the knock-out stages.

[Vickzq]

But if there wasn't EU you would have to pay this for a lot more countries. Its what it is. We pay too many taxes (and in Portugal we have the higher taxes-in % of individual income).

Nice fantasy.
You must be VERY YOUNG to believe this, because you don't know it otherwise. Even without EU there were hardly any VISA regulations within Europe - except if we go back long enough to find 'the iron curtain', or you mean longer stay (or for work).

If it's for simple travel, in Europe - before EU - it was very similar as it is for most western european country citizens going to e.g. Hong Kong. Nothing special needed, unless you stay longer than 3 months.

[rpo.castro]

But if there wasn't EU you would have to pay this for a lot more countries. Its what it is. We pay too many taxes (and in Portugal we have the higher taxes-in % of individual income).

Nice fantasy.
You must be VERY YOUNG to believe this, because you don't know it otherwise. Even without EU there were hardly any VISA regulations within Europe - except if we go back long enough to find 'the iron curtain', or you mean longer stay (or for work).

If it's for simple travel, in Europe - before EU - it was very similar as it is for most western european country citizens going to e.g. Hong Kong. Nothing special needed, unless you stay longer than 3 months.

Not so young and not so easy back then (with people being arrested by crossing the border without VISA, just to get a new life in germany or france, and in West Europe).
Now you can travel across europe with no reservations, even being out of EU due to bi-lateral agreements. There are a few exceptions like UK or Russia with more strick rules

[Vickzq]

So out of the projected third-placed teams, the simulations suggest:

Switzerland
Germany
Poland
Austria

should qualify for the R16, while

Russia
Czechia

should be the two eliminated third-placed teams.

etc

I enjoy simulations just as much as you do . But the fact they attribute some teams still in UEFA Nations League playoffs higher chances to even reach the final of the tournament at EURO 2020 - compared to teams that are atleast assured qualification, with decent chance to reach a good place in group - clearly illustrates how theoretical that whole construct of this simulation is... enjoy it "cum grano salis" .

[Vickzq]

Now you can travel across europe with no reservations, even being out of EU due to bi-lateral agreements. There are a few exceptions like UK or Russia with more strick rules

What exact country couldn't you easily visit within Europe BEFORE the time of the European Union, except for the ones you pretty much might need just a similar visa as 'back then'?
Has nothing to do with bi-lateral agreements or EU memberships... you wanted to go there, you simply went there (change of currency, identifying documents... and potential longer check at borders included).

Former Yugoslavia? Piece of cake... never needed anything to go there.

[rpo.castro]

Now you can travel across europe with no reservations, even being out of EU due to bi-lateral agreements. There are a few exceptions like UK or Russia with more strick rules

What exact country couldn't you easily visit within Europe BEFORE the time of the European Union, except for the ones you pretty much might need just a similar visa as 'back then'?
Has nothing to do with bi-lateral agreements or EU memberships... you wanted to go there, you simply went there (change of currency, identifying documents... and potential longer check at borders included).

Former Yugoslavia? Piece of cake... never needed anything to go there.

Portugal to Spain border: lots of portuguese immigrants had to run illegally in the night or would be arrested. Also smuggling was very common and very important source of income for poor people.
People circulation without VISA was allowed a few years before joinning EU but not circulation of goods until 93 when Portugal and Spain joined Schengen Space agreement

[Todor]

Now you can travel across europe with no reservations, even being out of EU due to bi-lateral agreements. There are a few exceptions like UK or Russia with more strick rules

What exact country couldn't you easily visit within Europe BEFORE the time of the European Union, except for the ones you pretty much might need just a similar visa as 'back then'?
Has nothing to do with bi-lateral agreements or EU memberships... you wanted to go there, you simply went there (change of currency, identifying documents... and potential longer check at borders included).

Former Yugoslavia? Piece of cake... never needed anything to go there.

Bulgarians were required visas to enter Western Europe until 2001 and to visit the UK until 2007.

[Lyonnais]

Thanks Ed. Very interesting simulation!

Just a question to make sure I understand it properly. Spain - who is the main favourite to win the Euro as per your simulation - is currently the 3rd European team in the ELO ranking. Does that mean that you recalculate the ELO points for the teams after every game simulated ?

[Witkop1983]

I wonder what would happen if Russia gets excluded.

Will it mean Scotland qualifies and Greece takes their spot in the playoffs?

[subway14]

I wonder what would happen if Russia gets excluded.

Will it mean Scotland qualifies and Greece takes their spot in the playoffs?

the ban doesn't apply to UEFA competitions afaik