2019/2020 CL Group G: Zenit - Benfica - Lyon - Leipzig

[rpo.castro]

This show:
-Portuguese champion has gotten easy draws
-but they managed to fuck things up.

Both this and the 14/15 group looks like EL not CL and still they don't get to move foward

[Lyonnais]

Things look like a bit more clear after MD4, at least for Leipzig and Benfica.

Leipzig are in an excellent position whereas Benfica are in a big trouble for the qualification.
If Leipzig defeat Benfica on MD5, it should be done for both teams. Leipzig will be certain to go through whereas Benfica will be officially eliminated (with still some expectations to finish 3rd if Lyon don't lose at St-Petersburg).

So the second qualification spot should be played between Lyon and Zenit. If Zenit win then Zenit would have the HtH and I don't imagine that they will waste their chances in the last game vs. an unmotivated team of Benfica. If Lyon don't lose at Zenit, it's then Lyon would would almost certain to go through (certain if Benfica don't win at Leipzig)

if Benfica win at Leipzig MD6 will then be very interesting.

[bugylibicska]

I think if Zenit cannot beat Lyon, they'll finish last. If they do they might have a chance for 2nd spot, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[Dragonite]

Benfica is THE BEST…………… last placed team in the CL.

This is their mindset; they must always be bragging that they’re the best.

They’d rather be the worst first placed team, worst second placed team or worst third placed team, because the real competition is against the other teams from Group G, not against teams from other groups. But if they can’t beat any team from Group G, then at least they have to imagine themselves “above” someone so they move on to this kind of comparisons.

It’s like seeing them bragging about being the only team beside Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern that is participating in the CL for the 10th season in a row.

Exactly what are they getting from all these “participations” though?

If the result of their latest three “participations” is a 3-1-12, where they lose 75% of the matches that they play wouldn’t it be better not “participating” at all instead of soiling their reputation?


Now “the best” is terrified of playing in Germany, where for CL they lost 6 times in 6 attempts (Kaiserslautern 1998, Schalke 04 2010, Bayer Leverkusen 2014, Bayern 2016, Borussia Dortmund 2017 and Bayern 2018). They’ll lose there once again. Their only hope to “stay alive” is that before Lyon doesn’t lose in Russia.
If that happens, then “the best” will only need a home win against Zenit to continue in the EL last 32.
But that’s a huge “IF” and huge “ONLY”, first they need Lyon’s assistance to keep Zenit within reach, and then we’ll still have a team which loses 75% of the CL matches it plays over the last three seasons having to win a game.
Do they even know how to do it, without Anthony Lopes gifting it in a silver platter?

If they do, why should they wait for the home match against Zenit instead of doing it already against Leipzig in round 5?


Portugal is about to recover its 2+1 CL spots, so Benfica will keep coming back, year after year. There’s no way that they’ll miss one of those seats, not when the way to get it is facing Portuguese opposition with Portuguese referees. Under these circumstances they’re unstoppable.

[EarlofBug]

I thought that Leipzig will be first in this group, but I didn't expect Benfica to be so weak. I thought that they will finish above Lyon and Zenit, and continue their European campaign in the Spring.
Now it's between Lyon and Zenit. I'm hoping that Lyon will get more points than Zenit in the last matchday, and continue to the CL Knock-out round.

[Dragonite]

Congratulations Leipzig!


Two seasons ago they couldn’t finish top 2 in their CL group with only 7 points.
Last season they also couldn’t finish top 2 in their EL group with only 7 points.
This time they already have 10 points here and it’s enough to finish top 2.

Now to win the group they still need 1 point in France against Lyon, otherwise they’ll only be second placed.


Congratulations Zenit for defeating Lyon!


Zenit is in a curious situation now…
On one hand, they may keep the second place with a short defeat in Portugal if Lyon also loses against Leipzig.
On the other hand, they may lose the second place with a win in Portugal if Lyon also wins against Leipzig.


Benfica actually exceeded my expectations in round 5, I expected them to lose in Germany like they always do, but this time somehow they got 1 point there, and they were actually very close to winning the match!
By the 90th minute they had a 2 goals lead, but both goalkeepers Vlachodimos and Gulacsi had problems during the second half and had to be assisted, Gulacsi was even replaced by Mvogo right after Benfica’s second goal because Carlos Vinícius’ knee hit Gulacsi’s head right after scoring.

Now Benfica can still reach third place and there are two scenarios for that.
They must always defeat Zenit, and then if Lyon doesn’t lose against Leipzig, Benfica needs to win its match 2-0 or by at least three goals difference.
The other scenario is Lyon losing against Leipzig, and then any win will be enough for Benfica, because in a triple draw with 7 points, removing the points against Leipzig, Zenit will always be second, Benfica third and Lyon last.

Unfortunately I think that Benfica won’t even be good enough to win its home match against Zenit…

[Malko]

Our newspapers says that Lyon will be 4th and eliminated if tonite they lose vs Leipzig and if Benfica wins vs Saint-Petersbourg......

or i see that in this case, Lyon and St-Petersbourg will all have 7 points....

We had Benfica-Lyon 2-1 and Lyon-Benfica 3-1 ...... (special goal difference 4-3 for Lyon)

so why Lyon would b 4th?????

[Malko]

okay...i see, Zenit also will have 7 points.....

[rpo.castro]

Our newspapers says that Lyon will be 4th and eliminated if tonite they lose vs Leipzig and if Benfica wins vs Saint-Petersbourg......

or i see that in this case, Lyon and St-Petersbourg will all have 7 points....

We had Benfica-Lyon 2-1 and Lyon-Benfica 3-1 ...... (special goal difference 4-3 for Lyon)

so why Lyon would b 4th?????

Don't worry. Zenit will win

[EarlofBug]

So I was right on the first and last team in this group. I only confused the 2nd spot with the 3rd spot (which was really close at the end).

[Dragonite]

Congratulations Lyon!


They were in serious trouble at half-time, losing 0-2 against Leipzig.
At least Benfica wasn’t winning in the other match, so Lyon would go to the EL last 32.
But then Benfica scored so suddenly Lyon was last placed.
Then Lyon scored twice and climbed to the second place.

They’ll be playing the CL last 16 for the 11th time over the last 17 seasons.
This is a big achievement, and I think that people often don’t give them the credit that they deserve.
In these previous 10 CL last 16 clashes, they advanced four times (Real Sociedad 2004, Werder Bremen 2005, PSV Eindhoven 2006, Real Madrid 2010) and were eliminated six times (Roma 2007, Manchester United 2008, Barcelona 2009, Real Madrid 2011, APOEL 2012 and Barcelona 2019).

Their next opponent will be Bayern, Manchester City, Juventus, Liverpool, Barcelona or Valencia.


Leipzig was already qualified after round 5 but with the 2-2 draw in France they secured the first place, and in theory they’ll have an “easier” opponent in the CL last 16 and a better chance to progress.
Instead of facing PSG or Manchester City or Juventus or Liverpool or Barcelona or Valencia, they’ll face Real Madrid or Tottenham or Atalanta or Atlético Madrid or Napoli or Chelsea.
They already eliminated Napoli in the EL last 32 two seasons ago.


Congratulations Benfica!


3-0 against Zenit was the biggest win in their CL history alongside a 3-0 against Celtic from 2006.

Usually 7 points would be considered a bad result.
But “good” or “bad” are always compared to an expectation, and an expectation is based on previous results.
Ever since Benfica got that indecent 0-0-6 in 2017/2018, now the 7 points from both last and current season seem awesome!


If expectations were low for Benfica considering that 0-0-6, for Zenit they were much higher. The last time that Zenit couldn’t advance (*) from a group was in the 2004/2005 UEFA Cup.
(*) Advance = “top 3 in UEFA Cup group” or “top 3 in CL group” or “top 2 in EL group”

They were losing against Benfica, and they were convinced that they’d still advance because Lyon was losing against Leipzig.
Then Depay equalized in the 82nd minute and they realized that they wouldn’t advance anymore, unless they scored one goal against Benfica.
But by then it was already too late, they were in numerical disadvantage and there were only a few minutes left. It could have happened, but it didn’t.

Football is a curious sport… in 2013/2014, 6 points were enough for Zenit to finish 2nd in its CL group. This time, 7 points weren’t enough for them to avoid the last place.

Prediction
1. Leipzig
2. Benfica
3. Zenit
4. Lyon

Here I was right about Leipzig 1st but wrong about everything else... Lyon was last placed with 10 minutes left but then Depay's goal saved them.

[og2002gr]

The most balanced group.

Zenit had an undeserved Pot 1 place and a very lucky draw. Yet they managed their worst result in their recent history, finishing last in their CL group for the 1st time!

It is amazing how Benfica is so consistent in finishing lower that their Pot.
For the 8th (!!!) time in a row they were seeded and failed to justify their "fake" ranking!
How many chances are they going to have?
They have only a 1,03 pts/game ratio, almost half of Porto's record (1,96).
3rd elimination in a row, making Basel, Ajax, Lyon, Leipzig happy.
Portugal's rise in 6th place means they will make happy more and more teams in the following seasons.

Lyon dramatic qualification was one of the best moments of GS.
Their GS performance is very low (1,17 pts/game) but that was their 2nd qualification in a row despite Pot 3 status, so I guess they are having an improving route.

RB Leipzig case is similar to Atalanta's, as they are a team from nowhere that got into CL due to Germany's ranking.
Despite not having the weight of Portuguese and Russian champions they eliminated them and for the 1st time they will participate in Europe's elite.
I am curious to see how the project continues.

[SimonB]

For the method and explanation see Gp A CL

Comparing with eci:-

Leipzig 11 (9.32); 2 (1.92)
Lyon 8 (7.36); 1 (-1.26)
Benfica 7 (9.04); -1 (1,45)
Zenit 7 (6.86); -2 (-2.11)

In this the closest of the groups the index got the order of Lyon and Benfica wrong but did see the close nature of the group.