babaluj1 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 13:07
You are an eternal pessimist! Croatia has the most stable rating of all the countries that are in the fight for 12th-15th place. That rating ranges from 15th to 20th place and will be like that this season as well, for the tenth time in a row.
Realist, not a pessimist. Bar a miracle from Hajduk tonight, it will be difficult to find a single model or projection that will keep Croatia in front of Israel and Turkey.
You predict Dinamo in CL 6 0 0 6? I think you are badly mistaken, unless Dinamo falls into some group of death, even there they will take at least a point or two. They didn't sell anyone important, but they bought a couple of excellent players and will buy a few more reinforcements. Dinamo will be much stronger this season than last year. Dinamo will play equally with most teams in the CL, except for ten of the strongest.
babaluj1 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 13:07
You are an eternal pessimist! Croatia has the most stable rating of all the countries that are in the fight for 12th-15th place. That rating ranges from 15th to 20th place and will be like that this season as well, for the tenth time in a row.
Realist, not a pessimist. Bar a miracle from Hajduk tonight, it will be difficult to find a single model or projection that will keep Croatia in front of Israel and Turkey.
You predict Dinamo in CL 6 0 0 6? I think you are badly mistaken, unless Dinamo falls into some group of death, even there they will take at least a point or two. They didn't sell anyone important, but they bought a couple of excellent players and will buy a few more reinforcements. Dinamo will be much stronger this season than last year. Dinamo will play equally with most teams in the CL, except for ten of the strongest.
You know that in the last two seasons the countries that finished 20th had 26 and 27 points respectively. Croatia at the moment has 24.650. Dinamo will have to make at least 2 victories and a draw to get close to these numbers. You can pick a group, not including Shakhtar where they will easily achieve this.
nogomet wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 13:37
Realist, not a pessimist. Bar a miracle from Hajduk tonight, it will be difficult to find a single model or projection that will keep Croatia in front of Israel and Turkey.
You predict Dinamo in CL 6 0 0 6? I think you are badly mistaken, unless Dinamo falls into some group of death, even there they will take at least a point or two. They didn't sell anyone important, but they bought a couple of excellent players and will buy a few more reinforcements. Dinamo will be much stronger this season than last year. Dinamo will play equally with most teams in the CL, except for ten of the strongest.
You know that in the last two seasons the countries that finished 20th had 26 and 27 points respectively. Croatia at the moment has 24.650. Dinamo will have to make at least 2 victories and a draw to get close to these numbers. You can pick a group, not including Shakhtar where they will easily achieve this.
There are no easy opponents, no easy points in the CL. I believe that Dinamo will play well in the CL and have a good chance for third place in the group and continuation in the EL. It's hard to say how many victories and points they will win, it also depends on the opponents and the luck of the draw, but I don't think they will disappoint.
nogomet wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 23:01
After an Austrian disaster today, my prediction that Serbia can contest a spot in Top 10 doesn't seem so crazy now, does it?
Not at all. Rapid's elimination was particularly difficult I'd say. Austria Wien looks weak so far and will need to wake up. Austria is definitely in danger of losing 9th place
nogomet wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 23:01
After an Austrian disaster today, my prediction that Serbia can contest a spot in Top 10 doesn't seem so crazy now, does it?
Not at all. Rapid's elimination was particularly difficult I'd say. Austria Wien looks weak so far and will need to wake up. Austria is definitely in danger of losing 9th place
I was worried Scotland would struggle to hold 8th but I think we can manage it this season now with a reasonable champions league draw and Hearts will hopefully have a good Conference draw. I don't know if you can say but I know at the moment 8th and 9th are the same in terms of access. Does this change with the new system? 8th is the best Scotland can ever hope for unless Aberdeen, Dundee United and Hibernian awaken from their long sleep
nogomet wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 23:01
After an Austrian disaster today, my prediction that Serbia can contest a spot in Top 10 doesn't seem so crazy now, does it?
It still is, Red Star is not as good as you think.
nogomet wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 23:01
After an Austrian disaster today, my prediction that Serbia can contest a spot in Top 10 doesn't seem so crazy now, does it?
Not at all. Rapid's elimination was particularly difficult I'd say. Austria Wien looks weak so far and will need to wake up. Austria is definitely in danger of losing 9th place
I was worried Scotland would struggle to hold 8th but I think we can manage it this season now with a reasonable champions league draw and Hearts will hopefully have a good Conference draw. I don't know if you can say but I know at the moment 8th and 9th are the same in terms of access. Does this change with the new system? 8th is the best Scotland can ever hope for unless Aberdeen, Dundee United and Hibernian awaken from their long sleep
Agreed, Scotland should be safe for 8th for now. Though in the long run I expect Belgium to take over that spot because they have more depth. In my opinion Scotland really needs their own 'Braga' or 'AZ' i.e. a 3rd Eurocup regular to maintain a top 9 position. Austria's misfortunes of today will help for now but Scotland can't rely on that forever.
Not at all. Rapid's elimination was particularly difficult I'd say. Austria Wien looks weak so far and will need to wake up. Austria is definitely in danger of losing 9th place
I was worried Scotland would struggle to hold 8th but I think we can manage it this season now with a reasonable champions league draw and Hearts will hopefully have a good Conference draw. I don't know if you can say but I know at the moment 8th and 9th are the same in terms of access. Does this change with the new system? 8th is the best Scotland can ever hope for unless Aberdeen, Dundee United and Hibernian awaken from their long sleep
Agreed, Scotland should be safe for 8th for now. Though in the long run I expect Belgium to take over that spot because they have more depth. In my opinion Scotland really needs their own 'Braga' or 'AZ' i.e. a 3rd Eurocup regular to maintain a top 9 position. Austria's misfortunes of today will help for now but Scotland can't rely on that forever.
Yeah you wrapped it all up in a nutshell. Scotland are lucky that Austria collapsed today and that Gent and (especially) Antwerp did the same. This could've ended up being disastrous had both Austria and Belgium had all teams left. Imagine if Sparta hadn't screwed up for CZE. Scotland (and Serbia as well) need to improve their domestic leagues, and with celerity at that
Moldova will have Sheriff in Pot 3 of Europa League, after a thriller in penalties against Pyunik. Sheriff doesn't look good this year, and I don't expect them to do much in the EL. Moldova is not safe after all, but they still have a points gap.
Kosovo will be represented in Groups for the first time ever with Ballkani. Taking advantage of kind draws, they will be in pot 4 of the Conference League, and currently sit at 32nd. The countries behind them also have a team in ECL (Finland in EL) and the gaps are tiny, it's gonna be a battle. I don't believe 33rd will stay with Kosovo to be honest.
Latvia survived a dramatic match in Belfast, with RFS equalizing in the last minute with a Linfield own goal and winning a penalty shoot out. They will be in pot 4 in the Conference League, and are in the same position with Kosovo. Tiny points gap, a relatively weak team in ECL. I also don't believe in them much, I think they will drop one place at least.
Finland will have Helsinki in EL Groups, which is a big feat for a country like Finland. Unfortunately for them, EL Pot 4 means minimal chances for points, thus their job to collect more than RFS or Ballkani will be difficult. I think Helsinki is a better team than them, but they will need a lot of luck...I think they will drop out of top 35.
Ireland will hacve Shamrock Rovers in ECL Groups, after getting another home win. Shamrock is consistent at home, they are in Pot 3, not Pot 4, and look stronger than teams like RFS and Ballkani. I think Ireland is the current favourite for 34th, almost guaranteed to have a 3.000+ season. But 33rd will be tricky due to Vaduz.
Belarus dropped more places and they will drop even more, as expected by everyone.
Bosnia saw Zrinjski commit suicide, get equalized in 121' by a 10-men Slovan, and miss the chance to play in Groups for the first time ever on penalties. An "almost there" season for Bosnia, which gets more bitter seeing Kosovo, Liechtenstein and Lithuania debuting, and them staying in the list of countries to never have played in Groups. They're out of the battle, obviously.
Liechtenstein started at the bottom 5 this season, but Vaduz's miracle run sends them hoping for 33rd, even favored to get it ! The permanent Cup Winner playing in the Swiss 2nd division is in Pot 3 in ECL, and the divider by 1 means that they need less points than the rest, and have shown they can get them so far. If Vaduz gets 4 points for example, Liechtenstein, will end up at 12.000, and secure 33rd, and I think they'll get at least 4.
Lithuania will have Zalgiris in ECL Groups after a drama against Ludogorets, which saw the Bulgarians equalize in the end of ET. Zalgiris will be in Pot 3 and are stronger than RFS and Ballkani (not sure about Shamrock and Vaduz), but they're 2 wins behind Finland right now, and I can't see Zalgiris getting 7+ points in the Conference League.
The closest to the 12th place is the Czech Republic now, Norway and Switzerland will almost certainly end up in the Top 15. The battle for another place in the Top 15 is open. Ukraine, Denmark and Turkey have the best chances as things stand now, but we have to wait for the draw to decide that better .
Last edited by babaluj1 on Fri Aug 26, 2022 01:06, edited 1 time in total.
Serbia will have 1 team in Pot 1 of EL (Zvezda) and 1 team in Pot 1 of ECL (Partizan). 11th is firmly at their hands, barring a long run from someone below them and a massive Zvezda failure. They're not safe, but they have a solid advantage.
Norway will have 1 team in Pot 3 of EL (Bodo) and 1 team in Pot 2 of ECL (Molde). Now, this seems bleak in comparison to Serbia. But I think their teams are equal (Molde actually better than Partizan) to the Serbian ones, thus the draw will play an important role here. Czechia and Switzerland are also breathing down their neck, thus 12th-14th are very close now. Norway has an advantage over both though, and are still firm favourites for 12th with an outside chance for 11th.
Czechia will have 1 team in the CL Group of Death (Plzen), 1 team in Pot 1 of ECL (Slavia) and 1 in Pot 4 (Slovacko). Any points from Plzen will be a bonus for Czechia, while Slovacko will also had a tough task ahead - but not an impossible one. Slavia is the big gun - they could collect a ton of points. Czechia is for me the favourite for 13th, with decent chances for 12th, but also in danger to drop to 14th.
Switzlerland will have 1 team in Pot 4 of EL (Zurich) and 1 team in Pot 1 of ECL (Basel). Young Boys getting eliminated was a big blow to Swiss chances - Basel doesn't look as strong and Zurich is weak for the EL level. Basel can probably collect enough points to secure them top 15 (and 14th place), but anything more now looks an uphill battle for Switzerland.
Ukraine will have 1 team in a CL Group (Shakhtar), 1 in Pot 1 of EL (Dyanmo Kyiv) and 1 in Pot 4 of ECL (Dnipro). Shakhtar will collect vey few - if any - points. Same with Dnipro. The question is, what can Dynamo Kyiv do? If they can't do much, Ukraine won't be in the top 15 in the end of the year, plain and simple. They are in a tough spot because of the war situation, and it won't get any better I'm afraid.
Greece will have 1 team in Pot 1 of EL (Olympiacos). Olympiacos plays horribly so far, is winless in 6 Qualifying matches, thus it is almost impossible to bring on their own enough points in the EL to keep Greece ahead of Denmark and overtake Ukraine. Overtaking Ukraine might be doable with a lucky draw for Olympiacos and a bad one for Dynamo, but it's a very long shot.
Croatia is out of the battle unless a miracle happens. Dinamo Zagreb is in a tough CL Group, even if they manage to not finish last, it will be very very difficult to outscore EL and ECL teams.
Denmark has 1 team in a CL Group (Copenhagen), 1 team in Pot 3 of EL (Midtjylland) and 1 team in Pot 4 od ECL (Silkeborg). Copenhagen has an uphill battle and anything above 4th will be a suprirse. Midtjylland and Silkeborg don't look good so far. But they're two teams vs Greece's one and they have home matches (something Ukraine doesn't have). Is it enough to land them 15th? I think it will be, but very very narrowly.
Israel has 1 team in CL Groups (Maccabi Haifa) and 1 team in Pot 2 of ECL (Beer Sheva). Maccabi Tel-Aviv's failure to make ECL Groups was crucial for Israeli hopes, because currently they are more than 5 wins behind Ukraine. Where can they find 5 wins? Beer Sheva is competitive, but not dominant to this degree in ECL level. Maccaibi Haifa has a super difficult Groups, any points will be a plus. I can't see it happenning.
Turkey has 1 team in Pot 3 of EL (Fenerbahce), 1 team in Pot 4 of EL (Trabzonspor), 1 team in Pot 1 of ECL (Basaksehir) and 1 team in Pot 3 of ECL (Sivasspor). The only country to have 4 teams, and that's their weapon. But they're almost 8 wins away from Ukraine. Sivasspor is weak and won't contribute much. How many points can the other 3 clubs bring? Draw dependent to a bigger extent than the rest, I see Turkey winning 2 or 3 positions, but not enough to make top 15.
Cyprus has 2 teams in Pot 4 of EL (Omonoia and AEK Larnaca) and 1 team in Pot 2 of ECL (Apollon). It's the same with Turkey but with even worse conditions regarding to seeding, thus Cyprus isn't really in the race for top 15. But they can make 1 or 2 pots thanks to havng 3 teams in Europe and none in the Champions League.
I think you are badly mistaken, unless Dinamo falls into some group of death, even there they will take at least a point or two. They didn't sell anyone important, but they bought a couple of excellent players and will buy a few more reinforcements. Dinamo will be much stronger this season than last year. Dinamo will play equally with most teams in the CL, except for ten of the strongest.
The battle for another place in the Top 15 is open. Ukraine, Denmark and Turkey have the best chances as things stand now, but we have to wait for the draw to decide that better .
Croatia has the most stable rating of all the countries that are in the fight for 12th-15th place. That rating ranges from 15th to 20th place and will be like that this season as well, for the tenth time in a row. 
