2022/2023 EL Group F: Lazio - Feyenoord - Midtjylland - Sturm

[Club-Mate]

Craziest group ever.
So disapointed, that Midtjylland didn't go for the 3rd goal in overtime. It was like they didn't know, they needed one goal for first.
But anyways, it was the two best teams going through. Lazio was awful in most games, and Sturm Graz just put up som good fights, but clearly the weakest team.

oh the next ambitious call regardless of veracity.
how should Midtjy go for the 3rd goal if they are under pressure in 2nd half? well, do better in counterattacks. Their coach did the right decission by thinking "better the sparrow in the hand than the dove on the roof"
if you do not want to rewind 180 min from the Midtjy/Sturm matches just look at stats of these two matches.
Sturm - FCM 1:0
shots on goal 6:2
big chances 4:0
post and crossbar hits 2:0
missed penalty 1:0

FCM - Sturm 2:0
total attempts 7:15
shots on goal 3:3
big chances 1:2
corners 2:5
time wasting 10:0

[SimonB]

"better the sparrow in the hand than the dove on the roof"

Just as an aside here the equivalent expression for this in England is "better a bird in the hand than two in the bush"

[matt]

Prediction:

Lazio
Feyenoord
Sturm Graz
Midtjylland

This group does not really exist, it's just a product of our imagination. Onto the next one.

[Club-Mate]

"better the sparrow in the hand than the dove on the roof"

Just as an aside here the equivalent expression for this in England is "better a bird in the hand than two in the bush"

thanks a lot I was too lazy to look at special translation side 'linguee'

[bugylibicska]

"better the sparrow in the hand than the dove on the roof"

Just as an aside here the equivalent expression for this in England is "better a bird in the hand than two in the bush"

Or, "better an egg today than a hen tomorrow." In Hungary we used to say:"better a sparrow today than a bustard tomorrow."

[Greyn]

"better the sparrow in the hand than the dove on the roof"

Exactly the same in Poland. I use this dictum from time to time.

[A1IE]

"better the sparrow in the hand than the dove on the roof"

Just as an aside here the equivalent expression for this in England is "better a bird in the hand than two in the bush"

In Dutch it is "Better to have one bird in the hand than ten in the sky"

[SimonB]

"better the sparrow in the hand than the dove on the roof"

Just as an aside here the equivalent expression for this in England is "better a bird in the hand than two in the bush"

In Dutch it is "Better to have one bird in the hand than ten in the sky"

I don't know how I did it but I slightly miss-quoted our own usual expression, I should have written it "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush", which is very similar of course, I was probably half-thinking about what I had just read, but interesting to see how similar sayings are different in the various languages after translation.

[Onuachu]

Craziest group ever.
So disapointed, that Midtjylland didn't go for the 3rd goal in overtime. It was like they didn't know, they needed one goal for first.
But anyways, it was the two best teams going through. Lazio was awful in most games, and Sturm Graz just put up som good fights, but clearly the weakest team.

oh the next ambitious call regardless of veracity.
how should Midtjy go for the 3rd goal if they are under pressure in 2nd half? well, do better in counterattacks. Their coach did the right decission by thinking "better the sparrow in the hand than the dove on the roof"
if you do not want to rewind 180 min from the Midtjy/Sturm matches just look at stats of these two matches.
Sturm - FCM 1:0
shots on goal 6:2
big chances 4:0
post and crossbar hits 2:0
missed penalty 1:0

FCM - Sturm 2:0
total attempts 7:15
shots on goal 3:3
big chances 1:2
corners 2:5
time wasting 10:0

First game we just got a new coach, with a completely new playstyle. We didn't expect much of that. Especially because our two new signings in the midfield, both just signed and only had like 45 minutes for the club prior to the game. They have been vital for us since.

Second game we had 1.24xG against Sturm Graz' 0.80xG. Many shots on goals doesn't matter, if they are not real chances.
After a shaky start, Midtjylland was in full control of the game in second half. Basically only on setpieces, Sturm Graz was a threat.

But all that aside, my point was, that in the 93. minute we got a corner, and played it short with none in the box. Made no sense.

[Onuachu]

.

[Wachtwoord]

Craziest group ever.
So disapointed, that Midtjylland didn't go for the 3rd goal in overtime. It was like they didn't know, they needed one goal for first.
But anyways, it was the two best teams going through. Lazio was awful in most games, and Sturm Graz just put up som good fights, but clearly the weakest team.

oh the next ambitious call regardless of veracity.
how should Midtjy go for the 3rd goal if they are under pressure in 2nd half? well, do better in counterattacks. Their coach did the right decission by thinking "better the sparrow in the hand than the dove on the roof"
if you do not want to rewind 180 min from the Midtjy/Sturm matches just look at stats of these two matches.
Sturm - FCM 1:0
shots on goal 6:2
big chances 4:0
post and crossbar hits 2:0
missed penalty 1:0

FCM - Sturm 2:0
total attempts 7:15
shots on goal 3:3
big chances 1:2
corners 2:5
time wasting 10:0

But in EL groups its better to finish third than second. The second will need to beat a #3 from CL while the third get a #2 from ECL. A world of difference for two teams with very similar rewards in terms of both money and UEFA points (and no Mydtjelland is not winning the EL but they'd have a shot at ECL).

[Dragonite]

Unbelievable group!


Congratulations Feyenoord for winning it!


It's the first time that Feyenoord reaches the EL last 16. The only other time that they progressed from the EL groups was in 2014/2015, back then the group winners didn't qualify directly to the last 16 like they do now, so Feyenoord played the last 32 round and was eliminated by Roma.


Congratulations Midtjylland for getting the second place!


They never progressed from a post group stage KO round. Will they do it this time against Sporting? I don't think so.

Defender Sviatchenko will be suspended for the first game. And midfielder Evander, winger Dreyer and striker Kaba all left during the January transfer window.

Maybe they can promote more diamonds from their academy to the senior team and actually improve, but for now they seem weaker than three months ago.


And congratulations Lazio for qualifying to the Conference League playoffs!


Probably they're extremely confident about their chances in the Conference League... their next opponent is "just CFR Cluj".

I wouldn't be so confident. For starters, they couldn't even finish top 2 in this EL group with "just Feyenoord, Midtjylland and Sturm". Then, they couldn't progress from any post group stage KO round over the last 4 seasons (eliminated by Sevilla in the 2018/2019 EL last 32, by Bayern in the 2020/2021 CL last 16, and by Porto in the 2021/2022 EL playoffs). And if you're wondering what happened in the "unmentioned" season of 2019/2020, they couldn't progress from their EL group, finishing behind... CFR Cluj!

So, it won't be a shock if in a few days "just CFR Cluj" eliminates them in the Conference League too.

Prediction:
1. Lazio
2. Feyenoord
3. Midtjylland
4. Sturm

I was right about Sturm finishing last (although doing so with 8 points was unbelievable), and wrong about the positions of the other three.

[Dragonite]

But in EL groups its better to finish third than second. The second will need to beat a #3 from CL while the third get a #2 from ECL. A world of difference for two teams with very similar rewards in terms of both money and UEFA points (and no Mydtjelland is not winning the EL but they'd have a shot at ECL).

Last season the success rate of EL 2nd placed teams and EL 3rd placed teams in the following stages was identical, 3 of them advanced and 5 were eliminated.

EL 2nd placed teams:
Dinamo Zagreb eliminated by Sevilla
Lazio eliminated by Porto
Betis progressed against Zenit
Napoli eliminated by Barcelona
Real Sociedad eliminated by Zenit
Olympiacos eliminated by Atalanta
Braga progressed against Sheriff
Rangers progressed against Dortmund

EL 3rd placed teams:
Leicester progressed against Randers
PSV progressed against Maccabi Tel-Aviv
Celtic eliminated by Bodo/Glimt
Rapid Wien eliminated by Vitesse
Sparta Praha eliminated by Partizan
Fenerbahçe eliminated by Slavia Praha
Marseille progressed against Qarabag
Midtjylland eliminated by PAOK


I know it's still a small sample, but so far it doesn't support your theory that finishing 3rd in EL is more advantageous than finishing 2nd.


I wouldn't be shocked if this season's EL 3rd placed teams (Qarabag, Trabzonspor, Bodo/Glimt, Braga, Lazio, AEK Larnaca, Sheriff and Ludogorets) were ALL eliminated in the Conference League playoffs.