2023/2024 CL (and UYL) Group H: Barcelona - Porto - Shakhtar Donetsk - Antwerp

[Dragonite]

UYL:


Expected wins for Barcelona and Porto.


CL:


Expected wins for Barcelona and Porto.

Shakhtar has a new manager, Marino Pusic, and he started with a defeat, while his predecessor Patrick Van Leeuwen left with a win. This, plus Sevilla's defeat against Arsenal with Diego Alonso compared to draws with José Luis Mendilibar before, may be dissuasive to anyone else thinking about changing its manager.

Evanilson had his glory day against Antwerp. He started in the subs bench, entered in the 44th minute when Porto was losing 0-1, and scored a hat-trick!

He scored more goals against Antwerp in this match than in his previous 18 CL matches combined when he only scored one.

Now 4 goals from 19 CL matches is already an acceptable record, and these aren't even full matches.

Let's see if he keeps improving his record.

[bugylibicska]

To win the group, top 2 finish:

Barcelona 1.10 - 1.00
Porto 5.50 - 1.03
Shakhtar 34.00 - 9.00
Royal Antwerp 251.00 - 76.00

This group look also done and dusted. Shakhtar have only mathematical chance, but practically only miniscule.

Barcelona 1.20 - 1.01
Porto 4.50 - 1.05
Shakhtar Donetsk 34.00 - 8.00

Shakhtar shockingly beat Barcelona, but still heavily underdogs to advance. 3rd place looks safe, but probably would need to beat Porto away by 3 goals to pass them.

[Dragonite]

UYL:


Congratulations Barcelona!


They've already progressed from the group stage with 2 games to spare.

Now if they don't lose their next match against Porto they'll secure the first place too. Even if they lose by 1 goal difference they'll still win the head-to-head and then will only need to win in Belgium against Antwerp to keep the first place.

They had 8 players unavailable for the round 4 match against Shakhtar, all in the under-17 World Cup (Fort, Cubarsi, Cuenca, Prim, Bernal, Guiu, Hernández and Darvich), but despite this, they defeated them once again, by an even bigger score than in round 3 at home!

If Spain (and Germany in Darvich's case) reach the semifinals, then they'll all be absent from the round 5 match against Porto too.

But I suppose that an under-17 World Cup semifinal is more important than a UEFA Youth League group stage match.

Antwerp is already eliminated.

Shakhtar still has a tiny chance to catch Porto, but to do it three things must happen: the first and easiest is that they must win their match against Antwerp in round 5; the second is that Porto must lose in Spain against Barcelona; and the third is that Shakhtar must defeat Porto in Portugal by four goals difference.


CL:


Congratulations Shakhtar!


Another win for them, this time against the great Barcelona!

Shakhtar is fighting with Barcelona and Porto for the top 2 spots!

They haven't secured the third spot yet, in theory they can still lose it, but that would only happen if they lost against Antwerp and then against Porto and Antwerp won against Barcelona.

Barcelona and Porto already "overwintered" because Antwerp can't catch them anymore.

Barcelona did it for the 25th season in a row, the last time they couldn't do it was in 1998/1999, third place in a CL group with Bayern, Manchester United and Brondby, when the third place in CL wasn't enough to get a second chance in another competition.

Porto did it for the 18th season in a row, the last time they couldn't do it was in 2005/2006, last place in a CL group with Inter, Rangers and Artmedia.

Anyway, the overwintering streaks of Barcelona and Porto aren't that impressive, Real Madrid has been doing it for longer than both, and Bayern has also been doing it for longer than Porto.

What's really impressive is Mark Van Bommel's 13 CL matches without a single win!

He is the only manager in the entire CL history of over three decades that in 13 matches couldn't win a single one. Until this week he had to share his throne with Stanimir Stoilov and Giorgos Donis, the three managers with 12 CL matches and not a single win. But now Mark Van Bommel is unique!

[bugylibicska]

To win the group, top 2 finish:

Barcelona 1.10 - 1.00
Porto 5.50 - 1.03
Shakhtar 34.00 - 9.00
Royal Antwerp 251.00 - 76.00

This group look also done and dusted. Shakhtar have only mathematical chance, but practically only miniscule.

Barcelona 1.20 - 1.01
Porto 4.50 - 1.05
Shakhtar Donetsk 34.00 - 8.00

Shakhtar shockingly beat Barcelona, but still heavily underdogs to advance. 3rd place looks safe, but probably would need to beat Porto away by 3 goals to pass them.

Top 2 finish:

Porto 1.12
Shakhtar 6.00

Shakhtar need a win at Porto to pip them. Porto cannot finish 1st, but Shakhtar can! They just need to beat Porto by a few goals and hope for Antwerp to beat Barcelona by a big margin! Won't happen.

[Dragonite]

UYL:



Congratulations Porto!


They already progressed from the group stage, and are in a great position to win the group too.

4-0 against Barcelona was the biggest win in their UYL history alongside a 5-1 win against Besiktas in 2017.

It was also the biggest defeat in Barcelona's UYL history, alongside another 0-4 defeat against Benfica in 2021.

Antwerp at the moment is the worst team in UYL group stage, the only one with 0 points. Will they also lose their remaining game?


CL:



Congratulations Barcelona!


They're back to the CL last 16.

The "great manager" that Porto allegedly has was clueless in this match.

He seemed to be "worried" about "not losing" the match, or "losing by the fewest possible", when actually the only result that mattered was a win: a draw or a 0-10 defeat would be exactly the same, they'd still be in the second place and only need a draw in the next match at home against Shakhtar to keep it.

To be honest in the previous match against Antwerp he was already clueless, but he was fortunate to be playing against a harmless opponent with the worst manager in CL history in charge, and also benefit from a penalty kick and numerical advantage.

This time, without Mark Van Bommel on the other side and without getting penalty kicks or red cards he lost.

His first substitution was in the 67th minute, one right back for another. His second and third substitutions were in the 80th minute, a striker out and a winger in, and a central midfielder for another. And his last two substitutions were in the 90th minute, two strikers in, one central defender and one winger out.

Over the last three seasons in CL+EL only three teams lost twice against Barcelona: Dynamo Kyiv, Viktoria Plzen and Porto. Possibly Antwerp will become the fourth next week.

Antwerp at the moment is the worst team in CL group stage, the only one with 0 points. Will they also lose their remaining game?

[Firnen]

Prediction

1. Barcelona
2. Porto
3. Antwerp
4. Shakhtar Donetsk

Shakhtar once again manages to be more competitive than anticipated and easily get 3rd.

[aekFC4everNEW]

Prediction

1. Barcelona 13-15 points
2. Porto 11-14
3. Antwerp 2-5
4. Shakhtar Donetsk 1-4

Predicted that Barcelona and Porto would qualify but Shakhtar having chances to qualify in MD6 was really surprising!

[Metallica1989]

Prediction

1. Barcelona 13-15 points
2. Porto 11-14
3. Antwerp 2-5
4. Shakhtar Donetsk 1-4

Predicted that Barcelona and Porto would qualify but Shakhtar having chances to qualify in MD6 was really surprising!

Shakhtar is not Dynamo or Dnipro-1 =)

I will tell you a big secret that in Ukraine there is actually only one professional club, all the others are such only nominally, this is where all the problems come from. Shakhtar’s strength lies in the competent management of the club, so don’t look at the composition of the players in our team, whether Mudryk left or didn’t leave, it has little effect, the main thing is the organization of the club at a high European level, which, by the way, is not typical for clubs from Eastern Europe

[mspm89]

Prediction

1. Barcelona 13-15 points
2. Porto 11-14
3. Antwerp 2-5
4. Shakhtar Donetsk 1-4

Predicted that Barcelona and Porto would qualify but Shakhtar having chances to qualify in MD6 was really surprising!

Shakhtar is not Dynamo or Dnipro-1 =)

I will tell you a big secret that in Ukraine there is actually only one professional club, all the others are such only nominally, this is where all the problems come from. Shakhtar’s strength lies in the competent management of the club, so don’t look at the composition of the players in our team, whether Mudryk left or didn’t leave, it has little effect, the main thing is the organization of the club at a high European level, which, by the way, is not typical for clubs from Eastern Europe

They're certainly the best performing Eastern European club from the last 14 years by some margin (yes, even excluding their UEFA Cup winning season).

[Metallica1989]

Dragonite
Polak

thank you for the discussion, it was interesting to read

as a result, victory in the dispute is awarded to Dragonite

[Dragonite]

UYL:


Congratulations Porto!


Best team in the UEFA Youth League group stage!

Antwerp was the opposite, the worst team in UEFA Youth League group stage.

Barcelona will now play its next match in Germany against Mainz. It will be their 14th match against German opponents, and the 7th different club. The results are 7 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats.

UYL Prediction:
1. Barcelona
2. Porto
3. Antwerp
4. Shakhtar Donetsk

I was right about the top 2 and bottom 2 here, but wrong about their orders.


CL:


Congratulations Porto!


16th time reaching the CL last 16 in the last 25 seasons.

Galeno was once again awesome, 2 goals and 1 assist.

Taremi and Pepe also scored, and even daddy's boy scored (he did the same last season in round 6, Rangers vs Ajax, entered and scored one minute later).

Porto ends the group stage with the same 12 points from last season, last season it was enough to win the group, this time it wasn't.

Best second placed team with 12 points and a +7GD, even better than three group winners, including this group's winner Barcelona, that got 12 points and +6GD but won head-to-head.

Congratulations Shakhtar!


Shakhtar was the "best of the rest", the best team not reaching the CL last 16.

Two teams, Copenhagen and Paris, even reached the CL last 16 with fewer points than Shakhtar's points here.

It's preposterous that they had to finish above Barcelona or Porto to reach the CL last 16. These are three of the 16 highest ranked teams, they shouldn't all be in the same group!!

For those who believe that Shakhtar is "getting worse", this was their best result of the last 6 participations (6 points in 2018, 6 in 2019, 8 in 2020, 2 in 2021 and 6 in 2022). It was actually better than the previous two combined!

And finally, congratulations Antwerp!

Antwerp at the moment is the worst team in CL group stage, the only one with 0 points. Will they also lose their remaining game?

They weren't the worst team in the CL after all, not even one of the worst three!

And Mark Van Bommel finally won a CL match, in attempt #15!

Prediction:
1. Barcelona
2. Porto
3. Shakhtar Donetsk
4. Antwerp

Another accurate prediction.

[Dragonite]

Shakhtar is not Dynamo or Dnipro-1 =)

I will tell you a big secret that in Ukraine there is actually only one professional club, all the others are such only nominally, this is where all the problems come from. Shakhtar’s strength lies in the competent management of the club, so don’t look at the composition of the players in our team, whether Mudryk left or didn’t leave, it has little effect, the main thing is the organization of the club at a high European level, which, by the way, is not typical for clubs from Eastern Europe

For some people Shakhtar or Dynamo Kyiv or Dnipro-1 or Zorya are all the "same", "Ukrainians". They can't see beyond that.

Some are even more limited that this, they aren't even "Ukrainian", they're just "barbarian", like everyone else that doesn't come from their beloved "top top whatevers".

Dragonite
Polak

thank you for the discussion, it was interesting to read

as a result, victory in the dispute is awarded to Dragonite

The winner is Shakhtar that won 9 points and advanced to the EL KO stages.

The protagonists are the teams and players and managers, not the forum members. When people focus on this everyone wins, and that was the case here.

And when they act like narcissist fortune cookies that only care about the accuracy of their "predwishions" everyone loses...

[Polak]

1. Barcelona
2. Porto
3. Shakhtar
4. Antwerp

Well I got Barcelona and Porto the wrong way round and Shakhtar and Antwerp the wrong way round also. I overestimated Antwerp and underestimated Shakhtar. I would say more overestimated Antwerp. I made the mistake of thinking if Club Brugge could do so well last season then the Belgian league must be strong and so this season's Belgian champions should be strong also. Lesson for myself - never judge a club by the strength of another club from the same league. As for Barcelona, well they failed to qualify from the last two group stages so even though I expected them to do it this year I thought they'd finish behind Porto.

[Dragonite]

1. Barcelona
2. Porto
3. Shakhtar
4. Antwerp

Well I got Barcelona and Porto the wrong way round and Shakhtar and Antwerp the wrong way round also. I overestimated Antwerp and underestimated Shakhtar. I would say more overestimated Antwerp. I made the mistake of thinking if Club Brugge could do so well last season then the Belgian league must be strong and so this season's Belgian champions should be strong also. Lesson for myself - never judge a club by the strength of another club from the same league. As for Barcelona, well they failed to qualify from the last two group stages so even though I expected them to do it this year I thought they'd finish behind Porto.

I agree with you, you shouldn't judge a club based on "neighbours".

Having said that, Belgian clubs historically are weak in CL.

There's Club Brugge, 14-17-31, lost half the matches it played, PPG <1, needed 10 attempts to finally progress from the group stages.
Anderlecht, 13-20-45, also lost over half of the matches it played, PPG <1, in 12 attempts only progressed from the group stages once.
Gent, 3-1-4, also lost half the matches it played, PPG >1 (the only Belgian team that can say so), progressed from the group stages in their single attempt, they're an outlier here
Genk, 0-8-10, never won a match, PPG <1, never progressed from group stages
Standard Liège, 1-2-3, lost half the matches it played, PPG <1, never progressed from the group stages
Lierse, 0-1-5, lost over half the matches it played, PPG <1, never progressed from the group stages

And now Antwerp, 1-05, lost over half the matches it played, PPG <1, never progressed from group stages

Belgium's total: 32-49-103, PPG <1, combined Belgian clubs progressed from the group stages thrice

And then there's Shakhtar: 39-26-53, PPG >1, progressed from the group stages 4 times

In brief, you can say that Shakhtar is bigger than all the Belgian clubs combined.

[naaba]

In brief, you can say that Shakhtar is bigger than all the Belgian clubs combined.

Yes Shakhtar is. Definitely. Belgium does not have a CL-R16 level club, but instead has 7 clubs that will perform OKish overall in Europe (Anderlecht, Antwerp, Club Brugge, Genk, Gent, Standard Liège, Union Saint-Gilloise). I'd say 3rd spot in CL is the maximum a Belgian club can dream to achieve in this competition : Brugge and Anderlecht did it (and even better), so did Standard Liège, Gent did better on only attempt.

That's why Belgium is so high in country ranking. Belgium does not send in Europe the likes of Zorya Luhansk, Dnipro-1, Vorskla Poltava, FC Oleksandriya or FC Mariupol that won't bring points.
Shakhtar > Belgian clubs
but Belgian league > Ukrainian league