2023/2024 Conference League Knockout Round PO

[Dragonite]

Thanks @Polak

Here I only agree with you about Frankfurt and Ludogorets.

The majority of teams dropping from EL groups to Conference League KO stages didn't last more than one round over the last two seasons (10/16).

You think Dinamo Zagreb will knock out Betis and Bodo will knock out Ajax (among others). Interesting predictions. I don't see it happening. We'll find out soon enough.

We were both wrong about the two cases where we agreed!

Then I was right about Dinamo Zagreb and Molde, while you were right about Ajax, Maccabi Haifa, Olympiacos and Sturm Graz.

I may have more to say about these clashes, but not now, first I must watch the extended highlights during the weekend.

[matt]

Again, from the least balanced tie to the most balanced one, ELO ranking points wise:

Betis - Dinamo Zagreb 1737 - 1517 (220)
Sturm Graz - Slovan Bratislava 1558 - 1377 (181)
Olympiacos - Ferencvaros 1542 - 1471 (71)
Ajax - Bodo/Glimt 1651 - 1604 (47)
Molde - Legia 1529 - 1493 (36)
Servette - Ludogorets 1510 - 1523 (13)
Union Saint-Gilloise - Eintracht 1708 - 1703 (5)

There are a few finely balanced pairs, above all the fascinating USG - Eintracht.

Servette and especially Dinamo Zagreb won with an inferior ELO.
Betis...

[Polak]

4 out of 8 predictions correct. Average result. Betis and Frankfurt going out are fairly big shocks for me.

Disappointing result for Legia. To be fair overall their European campaign this season wasn't so bad. They got the furthest out of the Polish teams and picked up the most coefficient points for themselves and for their nation. Compare that to Lech who had a horrible campaign compared to last season. Nonetheless the way Legia went out against Molde was disappointing. There is no way to get around the fact that they have a horrible defence. It can be hidden if they score more than their opponent, but when they are struggling to put the ball in the net with free headers from 3 yards out, they have a problem. A good defence is the foundation to a good team. Many believe this is the starting point of building any team, a firm defence.

Legia made some decent money in January. In the summer I suggest they bring in a better goalkeeper, a couple of good defenders and a striker who isn't way past his best. Heck they could still do it this month as they transfer window isn't closed yet.

@Greyn I know you say Tobiasz is supposed to be promoted and sold for big money like Legia have done with other goalkeepers, but it isn't enough to just put a guy in goal and then after a season or two hope to sell him for big money. He has to have a bit of quality, and Tobiasz just doesn't have that from what I can see.

[Greyn]

@Greyn I know you say Tobiasz is supposed to be promoted and sold for big money like Legia have done with other goalkeepers, but it isn't enough to just put a guy in goal and then after a season or two hope to sell him for big money. He has to have a bit of quality, and Tobiasz just doesn't have that from what I can see.

Tobiasz was finally replaced by Hładun after that disaster vs Molde and spent entire domestic match vs Korona Kielce on the bench. Legia conceded again 3 goals in Kielce and Korona had a few more good chances to score. It is clear to everyone that Legia has a real problem with defensive play and this time Hładun may be partly blamed only for the 1st conceded goal, he had no any chance to save the other 2. We will see how Hładun will perform in next matches. Good thing is that Legia has the best goalkeeping coach in Poland - Krzysztof Dowhań and along with Kosta Runajić they should find a solution for this problem. If they decide that both Tobiasz and Hładun are not good enough, then Legia will most likely sign a new GK this summer.

[Dragonite]

Congratulations Maccabi Haifa!


This is a remarkable season for them. It's nearly as good as the last time they progressed from a group stage and also reached the last 16 round, in 2006/2007.

Sundgren's red card in Belgium could have been a problem, but Gent didn't have the competence to take advantage of it.

It's the first time in Gent's Conference League history that they miss the last 16 round.


Congratulations Servette!


It's the first time in over two decades that they reach the last 16 round.

Ludogorets was the only team in the Conference League without a single change in the starting XI between the first and second legs.

This time I can't even blame the goalkeeper Padt for the elimination, the problem was not scoring a single goal in 3 hours!

The last time that Ludogorets advanced from a post group stage KO round was already a decade ago, when they eliminated Lazio in the 2013/2014 EL last 32.


Dinamo Zagreb advanced as expected. Congratulations!


It's weird that they are the only Conference League team prevailing against the teams coming from the EL groups.

Real Betis may be from Spain, but they're not Real Madrid, not Barcelona, not Sevilla, not Atlético Madrid, not Villarreal, not even Valencia. They're a small club that couldn't reach a single quarterfinal this century.


Congratulations Ajax!


On the 90th minute of the first leg they were dead and buried, then they were resurrected by a penalty kick and red card.

And the referee protection didn't stop here, it continued in the second leg, first when a penalty kick for Bodo/Glimt and a red card for Sosa was transformed into something else by videoclownery, and then when Gronbaek was sent off.

So Ajax advanced here, but in a shameful way.

Bodo/Glimt was eliminated in the Conference League playoffs for the second season in a row. With neutral refereeing they would have be in the last 16 now.


Congratulations Sturm!


Last time that they reached the last 16 was over two decades ago, in the 2000/2001 CL!

They destroyed Slovan Bratislava already in the first leg.

Slovan Bratislava seemed much stronger over the last 3 seasons than Sturm. But the comparison wasn't fair, because while Slovan Bratislava played Conference League matches where they got 31 points, Sturm played EL matches where they only got 14.

Now we can see that "31 grapes are worth less than 14 apples".


Congratulations Union SG!


I'm shocked by Frankfurt's elimination. Last season they reached the CL last 16. Two seasons ago they won the EL. How is it possible that now they couldn't reach the last 16 in Conference League?!

And yet, the red flags were all there. First, they couldn't win their group (otherwise they'd be in the last 16 now). Second, they lost in Scotland against Aberdeen. Third, they couldn't even win both legs against Levksi Sofia in the qualifiers. Fourth, they kept saying that they'd sign reinforcements in January, and then the reinforcements were just Ekitike and Kalajdic...


Congratulations Olympiacos!


Three years after reaching the last 16 for the last time, in the 2020/2021 EL, they did it again, this time in Conference League. Now let's see if they can also reach the quarterfinals, something they haven't done yet this century.

So far, José Luis Mendilibar already did for Olympiacos in attempt #1 what he could never do for Sevilla - winning an away match.

Ferencváros should be disappointed that one year after reaching the EL last 16, now they couldn't reach the last 16 of an inferior competition. Not as shocking as Frankfurt, but still disappointing.


Molde advanced as expected. Congratulations!


Biggest aggregate win, 6-2, winning both legs, without benefitting from penalty kicks or red cards. Sturm also won both legs, aggregate score 5-1, but got 1 penalty kick and 2 red cards. And Olympiacos also won both legs but only 2-0 and also got 1 penalty kick.

Even the frustration of finishing behind Qarabag in EL Group H is now smaller because Qarabag also eliminated Braga, so after all Group H wasn't as easy as some people said.

Last time that Legia reached a last 16 round was... in the 1995/1996 CL, when there was only 1 participant per country and foreigner quotas...