Champions League - Group E (CHE - VAL - LEV - GENK)

AlanK · Post by **AlanK** » Sat Oct 01, 2011 14:22

@Dragonite:

Wish I didn't have to agree about Valencia--why do they turn into wimps in CL, when they don't do the same in la Liga? Is it "miedo escénico" (stage fright)? That's all I can figure out--this "unimpressive" team sure looked like world-beaters in their home game against Barça, even though they "only" ended up with a 2-2 tie.

UCL_Lover · Post by **UCL_Lover** » Wed Oct 19, 2011 23:34

Valencia are in trouble after tonight's loss.

Chelsea will probably cruise in Belgium, too.

Even if Valencia with both their upcoming games they will reach the 8 points.

With Chelsea being at 10 and Leverkusen left at 6, a draw in Germany secures qualification with 11-7 on points.

So, Leverkusen can go for the win in Belgium, while Valencia are going to look for the win in London, with Chelsea knowing that they lose the 1st place on that case. Not easy.

If though Chelsea get the win in Germany, things change. They'll be at 13, Valencia at 8 and Leverkusen at 6.
A 1-0 win at home against Leverkusen sends Valencia to the next round with a typical 0-0 in England. Or can they get something more if needed against Chelsea B?

So, Valencia urgently need two wins at home in the next ones.

Leverkusen, on the other hand look for 1 point in the next two.

Dragonite · Post by **Dragonite** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 15:31

Expected results here as well:

This 5-0 win is Chelsea’s biggest ever, alongside their 5-0 win against Galatasaray in 1999. And it’s not Genk’s biggest ever defeat, they lost 6-0 against Real Madrid in 2002.

Bayer Leverkusen already has a 4 points advantage over Valencia, if they defeat them again in Spain, they’ll be already qualified after round 4, supposing that Genk can’t defeat Chelsea. They don’t even need to win, a draw will have basically the same effect (4 points gap + head-to-head advantage, with only 2 games left, and one of them is against Genk). Only a Valencia win will postpone this decision for a while.

UCL_Lover · Post by **UCL_Lover** » Tue Nov 01, 2011 23:38

Chelsea left 2 points in Belgium and they can't afford a loss in Germany now, as nothing is guaranteed against Valencia on last day.

maluyaca · Post by **maluyaca** » Wed Nov 02, 2011 01:24

UCL_Lover wrote:Chelsea left 2 points in Belgium and they can't afford a loss in Germany now, as nothing is guaranteed against Valencia on last day.

Leverkussen still has to win in Genk. I don't think they will. Forza Racing.

Luka · Post by **Luka** » Wed Nov 02, 2011 14:24

maluyaca wrote:Leverkussen still has to win in Genk. I don't think they will. Forza Racing.

They will play on the last MD, with probably Genk being already out of Europe, after loss in Valencia. Do you think Genk will have enough motivation in such circumstances?

Overgame · Post by **Overgame** » Wed Nov 02, 2011 16:00

Luka wrote:
maluyaca wrote:Leverkussen still has to win in Genk. I don't think they will. Forza Racing.
They will play on the last MD, with probably Genk being already out of Europe, after loss in Valencia. Do you think Genk will have enough motivation in such circumstances?

Do you think Genk believes in ANY qualification from the beginnig ? Let's be serious ..............

About the group, Chelsea needs a win in one of the 2 games left to secure qualification. Shouldn't be too difficult.

Leverkusen needs 4 points (if Valencia takes 6 points, Chelsea cannot go higher than 9). I don't think 3 points are going to be enough if they lose against Chelsea.

Valencia needs 6 points (4 points are not enough : Leverkusen - Chelsea X, Valencia - Genk 1, Chelsea - Valencia X and Genk - Lverkusen 2 : we'll be in a 10/10/9/2 situation.) or 4 points with a win in Chelsea.

Genk needs 6 points to be 3rd, but 6 points would probably be enough to be 2nd. I don't belive in this situation.

JPV · Post by **JPV** » Wed Nov 02, 2011 21:06

Overgame wrote: Genk needs 6 points to be 3rd, but 6 points would probably be enough to be 2nd. I don't belive in this situation.

Even if i don't believe in a Genk win in Valencia, that might well be enough for a 3rd place (=5 points).

Current:
Chelsea: 8
Leverkusen: 6
Valencia: 5
Genk: 2

If Genk wins,
Chelsea: 8/9/11
Leverkusen: 6/7/9
Genk: 5
Valencia: 5 (loses H²H to Genk)

If Leverkusen manages to win at home from Chelsea, Genk is probably 3rd (Chelsea would then really need to win from Valencia)
If Leverkusen & Chelsea draw, Chelsea isn't sure about winning the group, so would want a win to Valencia (=> ok for Genk).
Only if Chelsea wins at Leverkusen, Chelsea is OK and Genk will probably lose big time to Leverkusen, Leaving Valencia an "easy" game at Chelsea.

OK, i'm dreaming

Overgame · Post by **Overgame** » Wed Nov 02, 2011 22:38

Of course

I just posted the worst case for every team :p

Dragonite · Post by **Dragonite** » Sun Nov 06, 2011 12:02

Two surprising results here:

Well done Valencia, for making this group interesting.

And now Valencia has head-to-head advantage over Bayer Leverkusen, so if Chelsea wins in Germany and Valencia defeats Genk, then Valencia will only need a draw in Stamford Bridge, against an already qualified Chelsea.

In 2007/2008 an already qualified Chelsea hosted Valencia in match day 6, and the result was 0-0
Note: But Valencia actually finished last in that group, behind Chelsea, Schalke 04 and Rosenborg

Lusankya · Post by **Lusankya** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 23:14

So, this will be an exciting last matchday for Chelsea and Valencia.
Genk are already sure of a last place and Leverkusen of a top two finish.

Scenarios:

Leverkusen will win the group if
- they win against Genk
- Chelsea and Valencia draw

Chelsea
will win the group if
- they defeat Valencia AND Bayer Leverkusen do not defeat Genk.

will qualify for the round of 16 if
- they defeat Valencia OR
- they draw 0–0 with Valencia AND Leverkusen don't lose against Genk

will enter the Europa League round of 32 otherwise.

Valencia
will win the group if
- they defeat Chelsea AND Bayer Leverkusen do not defeat Genk.

will qualify for the round of 16 if
- they defeat Chelsea OR
- they draw with Chelsea while scoring a goal OR
- they draw 0–0 with Chelsea AND Leverkusen lose against Genk

will enter the Europa League round of 32 otherwise.

Btw. that's why I absolutely HATE H2H when 3 or more teams are involved.
I mean yeah, if Chelsea and Valencia draw 0:0, then Leverkusen losing or not losing decides whether Valencia or Chelsea are better? Makes perfect sense.

nikola_belgrade · Post by **nikola_belgrade** » Thu Nov 24, 2011 14:33

There is one and only Jose Mourinho!

Some members from Portugal praised Villas Boas and even his current successor at Porto. Age and coaching Porto aren't enough reason to be called "new Mourinho".

Ok, probably Villas Boas need some time but he knew where he was going and I don't know how much time Chelsea will give him.

Leverkusen has done more then I expected, they even were behind at home in two big matches for them - against Valencia and Chelsea - and managed to win both! That's a spirit and attitude, which brought them in elimination rounds.

For me, two points for Genk isn't proof that they are better than Villareal for example. I had chance to see them in qualifying rounds, they are equally bad now as they were this summer.

AlanK · Post by **AlanK** » Thu Nov 24, 2011 15:49

@Luka:

So it's "wimp out again" time for Valencia at Chelsea, or--I certainly hope--"show who you are" time in a positive sense. The players certainly want to get a monkey off their back . . . Let's hope they're up to it! Could be a really good one . . . or not!

Meanwhile, Valencia has a date in Vallecas at 18:00 Saturday. I think you'll wax us good--Rayo doesn't exactly have a happy history vs Valencia--but maybe CL hangover will help us get a point, with which I'd be more than happy.

JK · Post by JK » Thu Nov 24, 2011 16:46

Lusankya wrote:Btw. that's why I absolutely HATE H2H when 3 or more teams are involved.
I mean yeah, if Chelsea and Valencia draw 0:0, then Leverkusen losing or not losing decides whether Valencia or Chelsea are better? Makes perfect sense.

But what other method could be used? I can't think of any other method, which don't have any flaws, too.

Avalon · Post by **Avalon** » Thu Nov 24, 2011 17:11

JK wrote:
Lusankya wrote:Btw. that's why I absolutely HATE H2H when 3 or more teams are involved.
I mean yeah, if Chelsea and Valencia draw 0:0, then Leverkusen losing or not losing decides whether Valencia or Chelsea are better? Makes perfect sense.

But what other method could be used? I can't think of any other method, which don't have any flaws, too.

Yeah, H2H is miles better than total GD like it was in earlier times.