15 Place Battle

[Firnen]

Greece will fight for 13, not for 15, I don't think that Panathinaikos will not make the group stage again and there are hopes for AEK as well. 1 team in CL and 2 or 3 in EL probably. They can chase the constantly underperforming Netherlands.
Romania should be afraid for 15 because Viitorul and Iasi won't go far, they will probably fight with Steaua and Astra only, if Astra makes the CL Groups (really hard) they are in a better position.
Now Croatia will depend to what other teams except DInamo will perform, Dinamo can't hold a country on its own and the other croatians teams are usually terrible. They have a chance to overtake Romania this year.
Same goes to Belarus, they need points to other teams than BATE if they want to chase at least 17th place.
Now Austria is a weirdo, they have their big names, they could potentially have 3 teams in ELGS (we all now Salzburg won't make the CL Qualifying), they can make from 2.000 to 8.000.
Sweden has the bad luck to have their champions drawn against Rosenborg, if they are out so early things get difficult, if not they have potential in EL.
Norway is a joke (except Rosenborg-which have drawn Norkeping), without Molde they will have a tough year, Stabaek already out. I think they will fall below 20th.
Denamrk will depend heavily on Copenhagen reaching CL Groups, same for Poland and Legia though Poland has weaker teams in EL and one is already out, Zaglebie has a difficult drawin ELQ2 (Partizan).
Scotland is an eternal mystery how teams like Aberdeen have to work their asses to get past Luxembourgians, Armenians and other minnows. I would bet on them getting overpassed by Azerbaijan or Cyprus than rising above 23.

[UCL_Lover]

For the moment, just before qualification rounds 2, I have divided associations into two groups of four regarding their battle for 15th place.
On first group are the most likely to achieve it (remember that 3 out of 8 will do it), while the ones on the second need to do more.
Of course, there may be some associations below (e.g. Denmark, Poland, Scotland), but since their better year in last 5 seasons does not seem enough to reach 15th place, I have left them out for now, but we may see them in on next round...

Code: Select all

13 Netherlands  22.763 5/5
14 Greece       22.100 5/5
15 Romania      21.050 5/5
16 Croatia      20.625 4/4

17 Austria      18.350 4/4
18 Sweden       17.975 4/4
19 Belarus      17.875 4/4
20 Norway       17.450 3/4

And now let's see from each country who plays who on QR2:

Netherlands - 0
-

Greece - 1
EL. PAS Giannina - Odd Grenland (Nor)

Romania - 1
EL. CSMS Iasi - Hajduk Split (Cro)

Croatia - 3
CL. Vardar Skopje (Fyr) - Dinamo Zagreb
EL. RoPS Rovaniemi (Fin) - Lokomotiva Zagreb
EL. CSMS Iasi (Rom) - Hajduk Split

Austria - 3
CL. FC Salzburg - FK Liepaja (Lat)
EL. Austria Wien - FK Kukësi (Alb)
EL. Admira Wacker - Kapaz Ganja (Azb)

Sweden - 4
CL. Rosenborg BK (Nor) - IFK Norrköping
EL. Piast Gliwice (Pol) - IFK Göteborg
EL. BK Häcken - Cork City (Irl)
EL. AIK Stockholm - Europa FC (Gib)

Belarus - 4
CL. BATE Borisov - SJK Seinäjoki (Fin)
EL. Dinamo Minsk - St. Patrick's Athletic (Irl)
EL. Shakhtior Saligorsk - NK Domzale (Slo)
EL. DVSC Debrecen (Hun) - Torpedo Zhodino

Norway - 3
CL. Rosenborg BK - IFK Norrköping (Swe)
EL. PAS Giannina (Gre) - Odd Grenland
EL. SønderjyskE (Den) - Strømsgodset IF

[SteffenM]

Seems as a difficult season for last seasons big surprise, Norway.
1 team out and then 3 tough draws, even though Rosenborg and Strømgodset were seeded.

[wannabeontop]

Why all this fuss about 15th place? In 3 years time Romania will be like 25th, Austria 23rd and Holland 18th. I only focus on this season: can my country overachieve? Will my fav teams be seeded next season in the same round? Can they go through one or even more rounds as unseeded?

Tomorrow will be a big day for me, already RSVP'd to my friend for 8 o'clock. I predict 2-0 away.

[og2002gr]

Why all this fuss about 15th place? In 3 years time Romania will be like 25th, Austria 23rd and Holland 18th. I only focus on this season: can my country overachieve? Will my fav teams be seeded next season in the same round? Can they go through one or even more rounds as unseeded?

Tomorrow will be a big day for me, already RSVP'd to my friend for 8 o'clock. I predict 2-0 away.

15th place gives you a 2nd spot for Champions League for the next season championship. I found this quite important.
As well as I find very important 12th place that gives a direct spot to EL Groups. That way smaller teams from lower countries who would have failed in qualifiers have the chance to play 6 games and improve their co-efficients (like Asteras, Konyaspor etc )

[wannabeontop]

Yeah I know, didn't mean it like literally why. (Hence the second part of my signature.) My point is merely to see the competition as it goes. It goes without saying that I check the country and coefficient rankings regularly, so you're talking to a fellow counter.

[Lurker]

Belarus jumped past Sweden with Bate's win. And both Austria & Croatia held their ground at #17 & #16 with two narrow victories. Scotland's slim hopes of taking up the chase took an unexpected detour with Celtic's failure in Gibraltar. And the Poles lost a bit more ground with Legia's draw. Romania hasn't stepped into the CL-rounds yet. Their two unseeded representatives joins first in the next round, but they have already atleast secured a PO-spot in the EL for both. And the same goes naturally for Greece. (But 1 seeded & 1 unseeded in CL Q3 for them)

Don't think Sweden will overtake Belarus and retake the #18 spot after today either. It's instead more likely that especially Norway, but also Denmark to some degree, will be closing the gap just behind Sweden.

But, we'll see...

[wannabeontop]

Swedish club football is in decline, just like their national team.

[Lurker]

Swedish club football is in decline, just like their national team.

That's strange since we were at the highest ranking (#18) we been in for the last twenty years when it comes to club football, before the competitions started.

So what's your "proof" of that we're in decline?

Malmö's two straight years in the groupstage of CL not good enough?

Edit: Just because I believe that Rosenborg will prevail (especially at home) doesn't mean that I think our national football is rubbish as a whole. That prediction merely is reflected of that Norrköping have lost too many valuble players recently, along with their successful coach.

[wannabeontop]

That's strange since we were at the highest ranking (#18) we been in for the last twenty years when it comes to club football, before the competitions started.

So what's your "proof" of that we're in decline?

Malmö's two straight years in the groupstage of CL not good enough?

Edit: Just because I believe that Rosenborg will prevail (especially at home) doesn't mean that I think our national football is rubbish as a whole. That prediction merely is reflected of that Norrköping have lost too many valuble players recently, along with their successful coach.

I was dead wrong here. Sometimes I don't check the hard data which makes me susceptible to think in conceptions.

I myself supported Malmö in last season's playoffs and enjoyed their tactical football in the group stage. Sorry about that!

(But I'm right about the NT, aren't i? )

[SteffenM]

It seems the Swedish clubs have been better at getting people to the stadiums.

Football are of course not decided by the fans, but it can't be an disadvantage.
I kinda "envy" (hope it's the right word) the Swedish football atmosphere,
except for the Göteborg-Malmø Match.

Seems as a quite difficult draw for Norway, so don't think they will win compared to Sweden this season.

But let's see. The Rosenborg-Nörkoping match seems very interesting.
And AIK against Gibraltar, they can only disappoint, but at least the return leg shouldn't be easy.

[Lurker]

I was dead wrong here. Sometimes I don't check the hard data which makes me susceptible to think in conceptions.

I myself supported Malmö in last season's playoffs and enjoyed their tactical football in the group stage. Sorry about that!

No problems, it happens.

(But I'm right about the NT, aren't i? )

Yes our national team has been in decline since Hamrén took over. But now he's gone and Norrköping's former coach has taken over (Janne Andersson) So now we're seeing more positive on the future once again. A generation swap is also needed and has also somewhat started. Zlatan gone will ofcourse be noticable. But in the long run, I still think we'll be doing fine without him. Be more of a team than an one-man-show.

[Lurker]

It seems the Swedish clubs have been better at getting people to the stadiums.

Football are of course not decided by the fans, but it can't be an disadvantage.
I kinda "envy" (hope it's the right word) the Swedish football atmosphere,
except for the Göteborg-Malmø Match.

Seems as a quite difficult draw for Norway, so don't think they will win compared to Sweden this season.

But let's see. The Rosenborg-Nörkoping match seems very interesting.
And AIK against Gibraltar, they can only disappoint, but at least the return leg shouldn't be easy.

Yeah... we have a couple of clubs that often creates a lively atmosphere. Along with three Stockholm derbies. And some big city/top club rivalies as well.

Yes, Norway might have it tough against Sweden and other nations as a whole this season. But my prediction/s was just for today. (And I might be wrong as well)

[wannabeontop]

(And I might be wrong as well)

How dare you? That's my prerogative! At least for today..

[nemesys]

Quick copy/past recap:

Code: Select all

13 Netherlands 22.763 5/5
14 Greece      22.100 5/5
15 Romania     21.050 5/5
16 Croatia     20.875 4/4
17 Austria     18.600 4/4
18 Belarus     18.125 4/4
19 Sweden      17.975 4/4
20 Norway      17.700 3/4
21 Denmark     16.750 4/4
22 Poland      16.250 3/4
23 Scotland    15.300 4/4