Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

[AlanK]

Concerning France in you tables, problem solved.
France has 6 teams while Italy and Portugal have 5.
That's why more points are expected from French teams, since there are more contributors to total score.

This seems to be one of the problems that shows up fairly constantly: some teams are eliminated in qualifying rounds. How is one to treat this fact in "expectations" or "analyses" of points won in the GS (for example) Do we base our "expectations" on the number and quality of teams that a country has before qualifying rounds, or do we make predictions based on the teams remaining Either way, we end up with a distortion that requires that old bugbear of all sporting records: the asterisk

France has 6 teams.*

*All French teams qualified for GS of respective competitions.

Italy and Portugal each have 5 teams.*

*Each of these countries had one team eliminated in qualifying rounds.

And, of course, a "point" is not necessarily quite the same as other "points" because of different divisors.

"Russia has done better than expected."*

*Russia had only five teams originally; all five passed the qualifiers, so a "point" for a Russian team translates to .200 coefficient point for Russia, while a "point" for Italy or Portugal translates to .166 point.

All very obvious, but we gotta keep in mind that we're often comparing apples and oranges. The mind boggles.

[Aidann]

Austria have over performed? or Rapid Wien have overperformed and everyone else was a disappointment? Well okay Wolfsberger and Altach were never going to do anything serious in Europe but Red Bull should be qualifying for the Group stage at the least but they failed not once but twice to qualify for a Group stage.

So Yes Rapid over performed = Austria over performing as no way can you say Red Bull meet expectations.

Yes, you are right. This post is meant to deal with performances of teams in Group Stages, and performances of countries in Group Stages matches. It is not meant to show who is best in the overall season.

[BurningStorm]

Great work, Aidann.

_

I don't know if it's the right topic, but as we discuss possibilities I think I can add it here: According to bwin, Bayern are favorite for winning the Champions League (3.85 ; Barcelona 4.33 ; Real 6.25 ; Paris 12.00). Dortmund are favorite for winning the Europa League (7.00 ; Napoli 11.00 ; Liverpool 17.00, but of course there will be tough 3rd placed CL teams after the winter break). Germany are favorite for winning the EURO (4.40 ; France 4.50 ; Spain 7.00 ; Belgium 10.00).

I would be happy if one of these things comes true at the end, but I wouldn't be surprised if they all fuck it up.

[Aidann]

Code: Select all

Basel (2.8)            Draw (3.42)  Fiorentina (2.8)        
Augsburg (2.88)        Draw (3.58)  Athletic Bilbao (2.63)  
Lok Moscow (2.62)      Draw (3.44)  Sporting Lisbon (2.9)   
Belenenses (2.68)      Draw (3.3)   Lech Poznan (3.1)       
Monchengladbach (2.55) Draw (3.6)   Sevilla (3.1)           
Celtic (2.46)          Draw (3.56)  Ajax (3)                
Rosenborg (3.1)        Draw (3.5)   St Etienne (2.48)       
Club Brugge (3.13)     Draw (3.7)   Napoli (2.35)           
CSKA Moscow (2.36)     Draw (3.64)  Wolfsburg (3.3)         
Rubin Kazan (2.3)      Draw (3.4)   FC Sion (3.55)          

Code: Select all

Juventus (2.3)         Draw (3.5)   Man City (3.6)          
Zenit (2.25)           Draw (3.4)   Valencia (3.75)         
Legia Warsaw (2.1)     Draw (3.62)  FC Midtjylland (4)      
AZ Alkmaar (2.05)      Draw (3.75)  Partizan Belgrade (4)   
Molde (4.1)            Draw (3.7)   Fenerbahce (2.05)       
FK Karabakh (4.5)      Draw (3.48)  Tottenham (2.05)        
Shakhtar Donetsk (4.2) Draw (4)     Real Madrid (1.95)      
Monaco (1.95)          Draw (3.72)  Anderlecht (4.6)        
Dinamo Minsk (4.7)     Draw (3.74)  Plzen (1.91)            
FK Krasnodar (4.5)     Draw (4.2)   Dortmund (1.8)          

Code: Select all

FC Astana (5)          Draw (3.75)  Benfica (1.87)          
Porto (1.85)           Draw (3.7)   Dynamo Kiev (5.1)       
Lazio (1.83)           Draw (3.8)   Dnipro (5.1)            
Lyon (1.8)             Draw (4.1)   Gent (5.2)              
BATE Borisov (5.9)     Draw (4.15)  Bayer Leverkusen (1.73) 
Villarreal (1.62)      Draw (4.33)  Rapid Vienna (6.05)     
Braga (1.62)           Draw (4)     Slovan Liberec (6.7)    
Man Utd (1.51)         Draw (4.65)  PSV (7.5)               
Liverpool (1.53)       Draw (4.35)  Bordeaux (8.3)          
PAOK Saloniki (1.38)   Draw (5.2)   FK Qabala (11)          

Code: Select all

Maccabi Tel Aviv (11)  Draw (5.3)   Chelsea (1.37)          
Atletico Madrid (1.33) Draw (5.8)   Galatasaray (14)        
Sparta Prague (1.3)    Draw (6.25)  Asteras Tripolis (13)   
Barcelona (1.29)       Draw (7)     Roma (13)               
Schalke 04 (1.29)      Draw (6.5)   APOEL Nicosia (14)      
Malmo FF (15)          Draw (6.6)   PSG (1.29)              
Marseille (1.25)       Draw (7.1)   Groningen (18)          
Arsenal (1.22)         Draw (8)     Din Zagreb (17)         
Bayern Munich (1.15)   Draw (10)    Olympiakos (26)         
Besiktas (1.13)        Draw (11)    Skenderbeu (34)         

[Aidann]

Gent's victory at Lyon was not a huge surprise, with odds at 5.2. Still it was the biggest upset of the week.

Code: Select all

               Expected Got Delta
Gent                0,63  2  +1,37
Dynamo Kiev         0,66  2  +1,34
FK Krasnodar        0,67  2  +1,33
Dinamo Minsk        0,69  2  +1,31
Anderlecht          0,70  2  +1,30
Partizan Belgrade   0,76  2  +1,24
Wolfsburg           0,88  2  +1,12
Ajax                0,93  2  +1,07
Sporting Lisbon     0,96  2  +1,04
Athletic Bilbao     1,03  2  +0,97
Monchengladbach     1,07  2  +0,93

Code: Select all

Napoli              1,10  2  +0,90
Rubin Kazan         1,15  2  +0,85
Juventus            1,16  2  +0,84
Zenit               1,18  2  +0,82
Legia Warsaw        1,23  2  +0,77
Fenerbahce          1,24  2  +0,76
Real Madrid         1,27  2  +0,73
Tottenham           1,27  2  +0,73
Lazio               1,35  2  +0,65
FK Qabala           0,37  1  +0,63
Villarreal          1,45  2  +0,55
Braga               1,46  2  +0,54

Code: Select all

PSV                 0,48  1  +0,52
Liverpool           1,53  2  +0,47
BATE Borisov        0,59  1  +0,41
Chelsea             1,63  2  +0,37
FC Astana           0,67  1  +0,33
Atletico Madrid     1,68  2  +0,32
Sparta Prague       1,69  2  +0,31
Barcelona           1,70  2  +0,30
Schalke 04          1,70  2  +0,30
PSG                 1,71  2  +0,29
Marseille           1,75  2  +0,25
Arsenal             1,76  2  +0,24

Code: Select all

Bayern Munich       1,82  2  +0,18
Besiktas            1,85  2  +0,15
Rosenborg           0,92  1  +0,08
Lech Poznan         0,95  1  +0,05
Basel               1,00  1  +0,00
Fiorentina          1,00  1  +0,00
Belenenses          1,05  1  -0,05
St Etienne          1,08  1  -0,08
Skenderbeu          0,15  0  -0,15
Olympiakos          0,18  0  -0,18
Din Zagreb          0,24  0  -0,24
Groningen           0,25  0  -0,25

Code: Select all

Malmo FF            0,29  0  -0,29
Roma                0,30  0  -0,30
APOEL Nicosia       0,30  0  -0,30
Asteras Tripolis    0,31  0  -0,31
Galatasaray         0,32  0  -0,32
Benfica             1,33  1  -0,33
Maccabi Tel Aviv    0,37  0  -0,37
Bayer Leverkusen    1,41  1  -0,41
Bordeaux            0,47  0  -0,47
Man Utd             1,52  1  -0,52
Slovan Liberec      0,54  0  -0,54
Rapid Vienna        0,55  0  -0,55

Code: Select all

PAOK Saloniki       1,63  1  -0,63
Dnipro              0,65  0  -0,65
Shakhtar Donetsk    0,73  0  -0,73
FK Karabakh         0,73  0  -0,73
Molde               0,76  0  -0,76
FC Midtjylland      0,77  0  -0,77
Valencia            0,82  0  -0,82
Man City            0,84  0  -0,84
Sion                0,85  0  -0,85
Club Brugge         0,90  0  -0,90
Sevilla             0,93  0  -0,93
Augsburg            0,97  0  -0,97

Code: Select all

Lok Moscow          1,04  0  -1,04
Celtic              1,07  0  -1,07
CSKA Moscow         1,12  0  -1,12
AZ Alkmaar          1,24  0  -1,24
Monaco              1,30  0  -1,30
Plzen               1,31  0  -1,31
Dortmund            1,33  0  -1,33
Porto               1,34  0  -1,34
Lyon                1,37  0  -1,37

[Aidann]

Expected wins for PSG and Marseille and expected draw for St. Etienne, but surprising home defeats for Monaco and Lyon, make France the underperformer country of the week. Again.

Code: Select all

          Expected Got Delta
Italy         4,91  7  +2,09
Belgium       2,23  4  +1,77
Belarus       1,28  3  +1,72
Serbia        0,76  2  +1,24
Spain         8,88 10  +1,12
Russia        5,16  6  +0,84
Poland        2,18  3  +0,82
Turkey        3,41  4  +0,59
England       8,55  9  +0,44

Code: Select all

Kazakhstan    0,67  1  +0,33
Netherlands   2,90  3  +0,10
Ukraine       2,04  2  -0,04
Azerbaijan    1,10  1  -0,10
Portugal      6,14  6  -0,14
Albania       0,15  0  -0,15
Germany       9,18  9  -0,18
Croatia       0,24  0  -0,24
Sweden        0,29  0  -0,29
Cyprus        0,30  0  -0,30

Code: Select all

Israel        0,37  0  -0,37
Austria       0,55  0  -0,55
Norway        1,68  1  -0,68
Denmark       0,77  0  -0,77
Switzerland   1,85  1  -0,85
Scotland      1,07  0  -1,07
Greece        2,12  1  -1,12
Czech Rep     3,54  2  -1,54
France        7,68  5  -2,68

[JK]

Top 7 Coefficient Overview

Matchday 1
1. Spain: 1,285
2. Germany: 1,428
3. England: 0,625
4. Italy: 1,000
5. Portugal: 1,000
6. France: 1,333
7. Russia: 0,800

Matchday 2
1. Spain: 1,142
2. Germany: 0,714
3. England: 0,750
4. Italy: 1,333
5. Portugal: 1,166
6. France: 0,666
7. Russia: 1,800

Matchday 3
1. Spain: 1,571
2. Germany: 1,285
3. England: 0,875
4. Italy: 1,000
5. Portugal: 1,333
6. France: 0,833
7. Russia: 1,200

Matchday 4
1. Spain: 1,285
2. Germany: 1,142
3. England: 1,250
4. Italy: 1,500
5. Portugal: 0,666
6. France: 1,000
7. Russia: 1,000

Matchday 5
1. Spain: 1,428
2. Germany: 1,285
3. England: 1,125
4. Italy: 1,166
5. Portugal: 1,000
6. France: 0,833
7. Russia: 1,200

Best country of the matchday in blue. All countries with less than 1,000 coefficient points in red. Not counting bonus points.

[Lorric]

England have been beaten by Italy on all 5 MDs. Beaten by Germany 3 times.

If we rank all 15 scores:

1. ITA MD4 - 1.500
2. GER MD1 - 1.428
3. ITA MD2 - 1.333
4. GER MD3 - 1.285
4. GER MD5 - 1.285
6. ENG MD4 - 1.250
7. ITA MD5 - 1.166
8. GER MD4 - 1.142
9. ENG MD5 - 1.125
10. ITA MD1 - 1.000
10. ITA MD3 - 1.000
12. ENG MD3 - 0.875
13. ENG MD2 - 0.750
14. GER MD2 - 0.714
15. ENG MD1 - 0.625

England's results have improved with every MD except the last one, which was 2nd best.

[SirHenri]

and if we accumulate alle 5 MD's (without bonus, without qualifiers):

ITA 6.000 (great achievement with one team less than germany)
GER 5,857
ENG 4.625

but adding bonus points sees Italy dropping, due to Lazio failed to reach CL-GS:

ITA 2x4+5 = 13 TP = 2.166 (1x5 more possible) (--->3.000)
GER 4x4+5 = 21 TP = 3.000 (2x5 more possible) (---> up to 4.428)
ENG 4x4+5 = 21 TP = 2.625 (3x5 more possible) (---> up to 4.500)

England already qualified 6/8 teams for spring (6/6 teams who actually played GS)
Italy 3/6 (3/5)
Germany 4/7 (4/7)

if Germany qualifies at least 6/7 we will keep a little advantage percentage-wise, even if ITA gets 5/6

adding qualifiers, which favours Germany, we get the total of

GER 9.571 (---> up to 11.000 with 10 BPs)
ITA 8.500 (---> up to 9.333 with 5 BPs)
ENG 8.250 (---> up to 10.125 with 15 BPs)

[AlanK]

@SirHenri:

Good job here. The possible bonuses now loom large with Matchday 6 comin' right up.

Let's speculate

Advantage Italy: Roma controls their fate; at home vs pot 4 BATE; a win = 100% qualification; a loss = 0% qualification (for CL KO); a tie = probable qualification.

Advantage Germany: two possible bonuses. Wolfsburg controls their fate; at home vs Man. U; a win or a tie = 100% qualification; a loss = possible qualification. No advantage to Germany: Bayer L. only qualifies for CL KO with a home win over Barça AND a non-win by Roma; could be out of both competitions with loss; tie guarantees EL spot.

Advantage England: Three POSSIBLE bonuses. Chelsea qualifies with home win or tie vs Porto; at very least in EL KO's. No advantage to England: Arsenal must win by two at Olympiakos, or by one with score of at least 3-2; at least they control their own fate; at least in EL KO's. Man. U. could qualify with a tie or loss; must win if PSV wins.

Basic conclusion: the games to watch are Olympiakos-Arsenal and Wolfsburg-Man. U.

My predictions: Roma gets Q(ualification) and bonus.

Wolfsburg gets Q and bonus.

Chelsea gets Q and bonus.

Man. U. . . . plays EL.

Olympiakos gets Q and bonus.

. . . in which case(s) , Germany, England, and Italy get five bonus points each; (very) slight advantage to Italy.

[bugylibicska]

[Basic conclusion: the games to watch are Olympiakos-Arsenal and Wolfsburg-Man. U.

No doubt. Yesterday they`ve published the schedules and to my astonishment no Wolfsburg - MU game on offer. Usually they air 5 live games and all the time 2 of these games have English participants and I`ve no problem with that. And then in the evening one (sometimes both) of these games could be seen from tape delay, but the Wolfsburg game is forgotten.

[AlanK]

[Basic conclusion: the games to watch are Olympiakos-Arsenal and Wolfsburg-Man. U.

No doubt. Yesterday they`ve published the schedules and to my astonishment no Wolfsburg - MU game on offer. Usually they air 5 live games and all the time 2 of these games have English participants and I`ve no problem with that. And then in the evening one (sometimes both) of these games could be seen from tape delay, but the Wolfsburg game is forgotten.

Won't know what's on offer here until maybe two days before the games--Fox Deportes, one of the major carriers, never seems to schedule very far in advance. At any rate, I'm committed to the Barça game if it's on offer, but I'll at least be following Olympiakos-Arsenal on Carrusel.

[Rooster91]

So you are 100% sure that PSV is going to win CSKA at home and one of Wolfsburg or Man Utd will be dropped out of UCL? And all that despite the russians NEED those points cause it's their only chance to continue playing in Europe? Hmm, I wouldn't be that ignorant

[AlanK]

So you are 100% sure that PSV is going to win CSKA at home and one of Wolfsburg or Man Utd will be dropped out of UCL? And all that despite the russians NEED those points cause it's their only chance to continue playing in Europe? Hmm, I wouldn't be that ignorant

Hey, man, if you're speakin' at me, with a civil tongue, eh If not, accept my apology. I sure didn't say or mean such a thing as what you say here. I was collaborating with SirHenri's comments about Germany vs England vs Italy; no offense to Russia was implied. I made some "out on a limb" predictions, which may or may not have any relevance to the actual outcomes. I seldom make predictions, but how bout a little respect even if you don't agree with them.

[bugylibicska]

[Basic conclusion: the games to watch are Olympiakos-Arsenal and Wolfsburg-Man. U.

No doubt. Yesterday they`ve published the schedules and to my astonishment no Wolfsburg - MU game on offer. Usually they air 5 live games and all the time 2 of these games have English participants and I`ve no problem with that. And then in the evening one (sometimes both) of these games could be seen from tape delay, but the Wolfsburg game is forgotten.

Won't know what's on offer here until maybe two days before the games--Fox Deportes, one of the major carriers, never seems to schedule very far in advance. At any rate, I'm committed to the Barça game if it's on offer, but I'll at least be following Olympiakos-Arsenal on Carrusel.

I`ve a small hope after strong protests they might reconsider, it happened a few times already. To be fair they`ve never dropped a juicy game after promised beforehand, but when pressured they`re willing to listen and show the desired match by the masses later on tape delay.