Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

[Aidann]

Zenit and Lyon were expected to have scored 5-6 coeff points till this point. Zenit made 10, Lyon just 1.

Code: Select all

                Expected Got Delta
Zenit               5,52 10  +4,48
Rapid Vienna        4,50  8  +3,50
Molde               3,61  7  +3,39
Napoli              6,85 10  +3,15
Lazio               6,25  9  +2,75
Olympiakos          3,60  6  +2,40
Braga               5,68  8  +2,32
Juventus            5,77  8  +2,23
Partizan Belgrade   3,82  6  +2,18
FK Krasnodar        4,96  7  +2,04
Real Madrid         7,13  9  +1,87

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Gent                3,14  5  +1,86
Sion                4,16  6  +1,84
Dynamo Kiev         4,44  6  +1,56
Athletic Bilbao     6,50  8  +1,50
PSV                 3,50  5  +1,50
BATE Borisov        1,91  3  +1,09
Basel               6,04  7  +0,96
Sparta Prague       6,07  7  +0,93
Schalke 04          7,09  8  +0,91
Slovan Liberec      4,09  5  +0,91
Skenderbeu          1,14  2  +0,86
St Etienne          5,16  6  +0,84

Code: Select all

Tottenham           6,17  7  +0,83
Anderlecht          4,25  5  +0,75
Villarreal          7,25  8  +0,75
FC Astana           2,27  3  +0,73
Benfica             6,30  7  +0,70
Lok Moscow          5,31  6  +0,69
Wolfsburg           5,40  6  +0,60
Barcelona           8,41  9  +0,59
Monchengladbach     3,59  4  +0,41
PSG                 6,59  7  +0,41
Belenenses          3,61  4  +0,39
Besiktas            6,62  7  +0,38

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FC Midtjylland      3,62  4  +0,38
Porto               6,68  7  +0,32
Lech Poznan         3,69  4  +0,31
Malmo FF            1,72  2  +0,28
Fenerbahce          5,83  6  +0,17
FK Qabala           1,85  2  +0,15
Liverpool           6,89  7  +0,10
Chelsea             6,92  7  +0,08
Man City            6,08  6  -0,08
Bayern Munich       8,10  8  -0,09
Roma                4,15  4  -0,15
Rubin Kazan         4,19  4  -0,19

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FK Karabakh         3,20  3  -0,20
Din Zagreb          2,22  2  -0,22
Ajax                5,31  5  -0,31
Asteras Tripolis    3,31  3  -0,31
Galatasaray         3,40  3  -0,40
Man Utd             6,57  6  -0,57
Dinamo Minsk        2,76  2  -0,76
PAOK Saloniki       4,92  4  -0,92
Marseille           7,02  6  -1,02
Atletico Madrid     8,03  7  -1,03
Dortmund            8,27  7  -1,27
Monaco              6,38  5  -1,38

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Augsburg            5,46  4  -1,46
APOEL Nicosia       3,53  2  -1,53
Bayer Leverkusen    5,53  4  -1,53
CSKA Moscow         4,53  3  -1,53
Dnipro              4,60  3  -1,60
Fiorentina          6,66  5  -1,66
Club Brugge         4,69  3  -1,69
Bordeaux            4,76  3  -1,76
Legia Warsaw        4,84  3  -1,84
Sporting Lisbon     6,93  5  -1,93
Maccabi Tel Aviv    1,96  0  -1,96
Valencia            5,97  4  -1,97

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Rosenborg           3,99  2  -1,99
Arsenal             6,08  4  -2,08
Groningen           3,21  1  -2,21
AZ Alkmaar          4,22  2  -2,22
Sevilla             4,56  2  -2,56
Shakhtar Donetsk    4,56  2  -2,56
Celtic              5,25  2  -3,25
Plzen               5,49  2  -3,49
Lyon                5,37  1  -4,37

[Aidann]

Italy moves back to the top after good wins by Napoli, Juve and Lazio. Negative delta for France is already twice than the next country at the bottom.

Code: Select all

          Expected Got Delta
Italy        29,68 36  +6,32
Russia       24,51 30  +5,49
Austria       4,50  8  +3,50
Switzerland  10,20 13  +2,80
Serbia        3,82  6  +2,18
Portugal     29,20 31  +1,80
Norway        7,60  9  +1,40
Greece       11,83 13  +1,17
Belgium      12,08 13  +0,92

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Albania       1,14  2  +0,86
Kazakhstan    2,27  3  +0,73
Denmark       3,62  4  +0,38
Belarus       4,67  5  +0,33
Sweden        1,72  2  +0,28
Turkey       15,85 16  +0,15
Azerbaijan    5,05  5  -0,04
Croatia       2,22  2  -0,22
Spain        47,85 47  -0,85
Poland        8,53  7  -1,53

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Cyprus        3,53  2  -1,53
Czech Rep    15,65 14  -1,65
England      38,71 37  -1,71
Israel        1,96  0  -1,96
Germany      43,44 41  -2,44
Ukraine      13,60 11  -2,60
Netherlands  16,24 13  -3,24
Scotland      5,25  2  -3,25
France       35,28 28  -7,28

[bugylibicska]

This is really a great idea to put numbers behind those gut feelings of pleasant surprises and bitter disappointments! Thanks for the excellent job and super entertainment.

[Rooster91]

So you are 100% sure that PSV is going to win CSKA at home and one of Wolfsburg or Man Utd will be dropped out of UCL? And all that despite the russians NEED those points cause it's their only chance to continue playing in Europe? Hmm, I wouldn't be that ignorant

Hey, man, if you're speakin' at me, with a civil tongue, eh If not, accept my apology. I sure didn't say or mean such a thing as what you say here. I was collaborating with SirHenri's comments about Germany vs England vs Italy; no offense to Russia was implied. I made some "out on a limb" predictions, which may or may not have any relevance to the actual outcomes. I seldom make predictions, but how bout a little respect even if you don't agree with them.

I'm not offended at all, and one thing I didn't mean for sure, is to show disrespect to anybody here. What I wanted to say, is that PSV is not yet qualified and it is wrong to write off teams before the game. Same thing for Arsenal, they're not done yet.
P.S. These are the disadvantages of text messages, you can never know the tone of the other guy. Don't get offended on the internet anyway, it's pointless.

[Aidann]

Just a few surprises on MD6. Dortmund started a heavily rotated side but they still were huge favourites to defeat PAOK. Valencia needed a win and hope Gent could not beat Zenit. Instead they got a 2-0 defeat to Lyon, a side that had not won in the group before this game.

Code: Select all

               Expected Got Delta
PAOK Saloniki     0,23  2  +1,77
Lyon              0,44  2  +1,56
Basel             0,96  2  +1,04
Sevilla           1,07  2  +0,93
Tottenham         1,11  2  +0,89
Wolfsburg         1,12  2  +0,88
Gent              1,12  2  +0,88
Atletico Madrid   1,15  2  +0,85
Arsenal           1,20  2  +0,80
Augsburg          1,21  2  +0,79
Sparta Prague     1,23  2  +0,77

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Schalke 04        1,24  2  +0,76
Chelsea           1,26  2  +0,74
Marseille         1,26  2  +0,74
Sporting Lisbon   1,32  2  +0,68
FK Krasnodar      1,32  2  +0,68
BATE Borisov      0,33  1  +0,67
PSV               1,34  2  +0,66
Dnipro            1,37  2  +0,63
Celtic            0,37  1  +0,63
Man City          1,39  2  +0,61
AZ Alkmaar        0,41  1  +0,59
Molde             0,42  1  +0,58

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Napoli            1,51  2  +0,49
FC Astana         0,51  1  +0,49
PSG               1,56  2  +0,44
Rapid Vienna      1,58  2  +0,42
Anderlecht        1,58  2  +0,42
Bayern Munich     1,67  2  +0,33
Lok Moscow        1,70  2  +0,30
Bayer Leverkusen  0,74  1  +0,26
Fiorentina        1,74  2  +0,26
Dynamo Kiev       1,79  2  +0,21
Sion              0,84  1  +0,16
Groningen         0,86  1  +0,14

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Real Madrid       1,87  2  +0,13
Lazio             0,91  1  +0,09
Plzen             0,93  1  +0,07
FC Midtjylland    0,97  1  +0,03
Rubin Kazan       0,97  1  +0,03
Bordeaux          1,03  1  -0,03
Club Brugge       1,03  1  -0,03
Villarreal        1,07  1  -0,07
St Etienne        1,09  1  -0,09
Malmo FF          0,13  0  -0,13
Braga             1,14  1  -0,14
Liverpool         1,16  1  -0,16

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Maccabi Tel Aviv  0,21  0  -0,21
Barcelona         1,26  1  -0,26
Belenenses        0,26  0  -0,26
Skenderbeu        0,30  0  -0,30
Din Zagreb        0,33  0  -0,33
Dinamo Minsk      0,42  0  -0,42
FK Karabakh       0,42  0  -0,42
Shakhtar Donetsk  0,44  0  -0,44
Galatasaray       1,49  1  -0,49
Legia Warsaw      0,49  0  -0,49
Ajax              1,58  1  -0,58
Athletic Bilbao   1,59  1  -0,59

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Monchengladbach   0,61  0  -0,61
Fenerbahce        1,63  1  -0,63
Rosenborg         0,63  0  -0,63
CSKA Moscow       0,66  0  -0,66
Roma              1,67  1  -0,67
FK Qabala         0,68  0  -0,68
Besiktas          0,68  0  -0,68
Slovan Liberec    0,74  0  -0,74
Porto             0,74  0  -0,74
Asteras Tripolis  0,76  0  -0,76
APOEL Nicosia     0,77  0  -0,77
Partizan Belgrad  0,79  0  -0,79

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Olympiakos        0,80  0  -0,80
Benfica           0,85  0  -0,85
Man Utd           0,88  0  -0,88
Zenit             0,88  0  -0,88
Monaco            0,89  0  -0,89
Juventus          0,93  0  -0,93
Lech Poznan       1,04  0  -1,04
Valencia          1,56  0  -1,56
Dortmund          1,77  0  -1,77

[Aidann]

England had a superb week with great victories for Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City. Finnally France got a decent run of results.

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          Expected Got Delta
England       7,00  9  +2,00
France        6,27  8  +1,73
Belgium       3,73  5  +1,27
Switzerland   1,80  3  +1,20
Netherlands   4,19  5  +0,81
Germany       8,36  9  +0,64
Scotland      0,37  1  +0,63
Kazakhstan    0,51  1  +0,49
Austria       1,58  2  +0,42

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Ukraine       3,60  4  +0,40
Belarus       0,75  1  +0,25
Greece        1,79  2  +0,21
Czech Rep     2,90  3  +0,10
Denmark       0,97  1  +0,03
Norway        1,05  1  -0,05
Sweden        0,13  0  -0,13
Israel        0,21  0  -0,21
Albania       0,30  0  -0,30
Croatia       0,33  0  -0,33

Code: Select all

Russia        5,53  5  -0,53
Spain         9,57  9  -0,57
Italy         6,76  6  -0,76
Cyprus        0,77  0  -0,77
Serbia        0,79  0  -0,79
Azerbaijan    1,10  0  -1,10
Portugal      4,31  3  -1,31
Poland        1,53  0  -1,53
Turkey        3,80  2  -1,80

[JK]

Top 7 Coefficient Overview

Matchday 1
1. Spain: 1,285
2. Germany: 1,428
3. England: 0,625
4. Italy: 1,000
5. Portugal: 1,000
6. France: 1,333
7. Russia: 0,800

Matchday 2
1. Spain: 1,142
2. Germany: 0,714
3. England: 0,750
4. Italy: 1,333
5. Portugal: 1,166
6. France: 0,666
7. Russia: 1,800

Matchday 3
1. Spain: 1,571
2. Germany: 1,285
3. England: 0,875
4. Italy: 1,000
5. Portugal: 1,333
6. France: 0,833
7. Russia: 1,200

Matchday 4
1. Spain: 1,285
2. Germany: 1,142
3. England: 1,250
4. Italy: 1,500
5. Portugal: 0,666
6. France: 1,000
7. Russia: 1,000

Matchday 5
1. Spain: 1,428
2. Germany: 1,285
3. England: 1,125
4. Italy: 1,166
5. Portugal: 1,000
6. France: 0,833
7. Russia: 1,200

Matchday 6
1. Spain: 1,285
2. Germany: 1,285
3. England: 1,125
4. Italy: 1,000
5. Portugal: 0,500
6. France: 1,333
7. Russia: 1,000

Best country of the matchday in blue. All countries with less than 1,000 coefficient points in red. Not counting bonus points.

[Aidann]

With their victory at Valencia on MD6, Lyon avoided being the greatest underperformer of the GS. Instead, the 'Che' earned that award. Molde, who topped a group with Fenerbahce, Ajax and Celtic despite being expected to finish fourth, was the surprise of this phase.

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                Expected Got Delta
Molde               4,03  8  +3,97
Rapid Vienna        6,08 10  +3,92
Napoli              8,36 12  +3,64
Zenit               6,40 10  +3,60
Lazio               7,16 10  +2,84
Gent                4,26  7  +2,74
FK Krasnodar        6,28  9  +2,72
Braga               6,82  9  +2,18
PSV                 4,84  7  +2,16
Basel               7,00  9  +2,00
Real Madrid         9,00 11  +2,00

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Sion                5,00  7  +2,00
Dynamo Kiev         6,23  8  +1,77
BATE Borisov        2,24  4  +1,76
Tottenham           7,28  9  +1,72
Sparta Prague       7,30  9  +1,70
Schalke 04          8,33 10  +1,67
Olympiakos          4,40  6  +1,60
Wolfsburg           6,52  8  +1,48
Partizan Belgrade   4,61  6  +1,39
Juventus            6,70  8  +1,30
FC Astana           2,78  4  +1,22
Anderlecht          5,83  7  +1,17

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Lok Moscow          7,01  8  +0,99
Athletic Bilbao     8,09  9  +0,91
PAOK Saloniki       5,15  6  +0,85
PSG                 8,15  9  +0,85
Chelsea             8,18  9  +0,82
St Etienne          6,25  7  +0,75
Villarreal          8,32  9  +0,68
Skenderbeu          1,44  2  +0,56
Man City            7,47  8  +0,53
FC Midtjylland      4,59  5  +0,41
Barcelona           9,67 10  +0,33
Bayern Munich       9,77 10  +0,23

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Slovan Liberec      4,83  5  +0,17
Malmo FF            1,85  2  +0,15
Belenenses          3,87  4  +0,13
Liverpool           8,05  8  -0,04
Benfica             7,15  7  -0,14
Rubin Kazan         5,16  5  -0,16
Atletico Madrid     9,18  9  -0,18
Monchengladbach     4,20  4  -0,20
Marseille           8,28  8  -0,27
Besiktas            7,30  7  -0,30
Porto               7,42  7  -0,42
Fenerbahce          7,46  7  -0,46

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FK Qabala           2,53  2  -0,53
Din Zagreb          2,55  2  -0,55
FK Karabakh         3,62  3  -0,62
Augsburg            6,67  6  -0,67
Lech Poznan         4,73  4  -0,73
Roma                5,82  5  -0,82
Ajax                6,89  6  -0,89
Galatasaray         4,89  4  -0,89
Dnipro              5,97  5  -0,97
Asteras Tripolis    4,07  3  -1,07
Dinamo Minsk        3,18  2  -1,18
Sporting Lisbon     8,25  7  -1,25

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Bayer Leverkusen    6,27  5  -1,27
Arsenal             7,28  6  -1,28
Fiorentina          8,40  7  -1,40
Man Utd             7,45  6  -1,45
AZ Alkmaar          4,63  3  -1,63
Sevilla             5,63  4  -1,63
Club Brugge         5,72  4  -1,72
Bordeaux            5,79  4  -1,79
Groningen           4,07  2  -2,07
Maccabi Tel Aviv    2,17  0  -2,17
CSKA Moscow         5,19  3  -2,19
Monaco              7,27  5  -2,27

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APOEL Nicosia       4,30  2  -2,30
Legia Warsaw        5,33  3  -2,33
Celtic              5,62  3  -2,62
Rosenborg           4,62  2  -2,62
Lyon                5,81  3  -2,81
Shakhtar Donetsk    5,00  2  -3,00
Dortmund           10,04  7  -3,04
Plzen               6,42  3  -3,42
Valencia            7,53  4  -3,53

[Aidann]

With their good results on last MD, France softened the awful negative delta they were achieving and England became an overall overperformer. Italy trying to catch England and Russia trying to catch France were the best overperformers of the GS.

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          Expected Got Delta
Italy        36,44 42  +5,56
Russia       30,04 35  +4,96
Switzerland  12,00 16  +4,00
Austria       6,08 10  +3,92
Belgium      15,81 18  +2,19
Serbia        4,61  6  +1,39
Greece       13,62 15  +1,38
Norway        8,65 10  +1,35
Kazakhstan    2,78  4  +1,22

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Belarus       5,42  6  +0,58
Albania       1,44  2  +0,56
Portugal     33,51 34  +0,49
Denmark       4,59  5  +0,41
England      45,71 46  +0,28
Sweden        1,85  2  +0,15
Croatia       2,55  2  -0,55
Azerbaijan    6,15  5  -1,15
Spain        57,42 56  -1,42
Czech Rep    18,55 17  -1,55

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Turkey       19,65 18  -1,65
Germany      51,80 50  -1,80
Israel        2,17  0  -2,17
Ukraine      17,20 15  -2,20
Cyprus        4,30  2  -2,30
Netherlands  20,43 18  -2,43
Scotland      5,62  3  -2,62
Poland       10,06  7  -3,06
France       41,55 36  -5,55

[JK]

Top 7 Coefficient Overview

Matchday 1 - GS
1. Spain: 1,285
2. Germany: 1,428
3. England: 0,625
4. Italy: 1,000
5. Portugal: 1,000
6. France: 1,333
7. Russia: 0,800

Matchday 2 - GS
1. Spain: 1,142
2. Germany: 0,714
3. England: 0,750
4. Italy: 1,333
5. Portugal: 1,166
6. France: 0,666
7. Russia: 1,800

Matchday 3 - GS
1. Spain: 1,571
2. Germany: 1,285
3. England: 0,875
4. Italy: 1,000
5. Portugal: 1,333
6. France: 0,833
7. Russia: 1,200

Matchday 4 - GS
1. Spain: 1,285
2. Germany: 1,142
3. England: 1,250
4. Italy: 1,500
5. Portugal: 0,666
6. France: 1,000
7. Russia: 1,000

Matchday 5 - GS
1. Spain: 1,428
2. Germany: 1,285
3. England: 1,125
4. Italy: 1,166
5. Portugal: 1,000
6. France: 0,833
7. Russia: 1,200

Matchday 6 - GS
1. Spain: 1,285
2. Germany: 1,285
3. England: 1,125
4. Italy: 1,000
5. Portugal: 0,500
6. France: 1,333
7. Russia: 1,000

Matchday 7 - R16/R32
1. Spain: 1,428
2. Germany: 1,142
3. England: 0,250
4. Italy: 0,333
5. Portugal: 0,666
6. France: 0,666
7. Russia: 0,000

Matchday 8 - R16/R32
1. Spain: 1,000
2. Germany: 0,714
3. England: 1,000
4. Italy: 0,666
5. Portugal: 0,166
6. France: 0,166
7. Russia: 0,200

Not counting bonus points.
Best country of the matchday in blue.
GS: All countries with less than 1,000 coefficient points in red.
KO: Worst coefficient in red.

[JK]

I added the last matchday to my overview above.

[Duketown]

Nice statistics!

Maybe it's an idea to make the delta relative. So this

Code: Select all

        Expected Got Delta
Italy        36,44 42  +5,56

becomes

Code: Select all

        Expected Got Delta   Rel
Italy        36,44 42  +5,56 15,26%

and then use the relative column for sorting. Then the performance difference between higher and lower ranked countries is accounted better in perspective.

[JK]

Top 7 Coefficient Overview

Matchday 1 - GS
Spain: 1,285
Germany: 1,428
England: 0,625
Italy: 1,000
Portugal: 1,000
France: 1,333
Russia: 0,800

Matchday 2 - GS
Spain: 1,142
Germany: 0,714
England: 0,750
Italy: 1,333
Portugal: 1,166
France: 0,666
Russia: 1,800

Matchday 3 - GS
Spain: 1,571
Germany: 1,285
England: 0,875
Italy: 1,000
Portugal: 1,333
France: 0,833
Russia: 1,200

Matchday 4 - GS
Spain: 1,285
Germany: 1,142
England: 1,250
Italy: 1,500
Portugal: 0,666
France: 1,000
Russia: 1,000

Matchday 5 - GS
Spain: 1,428
Germany: 1,285
England: 1,125
Italy: 1,166
Portugal: 1,000
France: 0,833
Russia: 1,200

Matchday 6 - GS
Spain: 1,285
Germany: 1,285
England: 1,125
taly: 1,000
Portugal: 0,500
France: 1,333
Russia: 1,000

Matchday 7 - R16/R32
Spain: 1,428
Germany: 1,142
England: 0,250
Italy: 0,333
Portugal: 0,666
France: 0,666
Russia: 0,000

Matchday 8 - R16/R32
Spain: 1,000
Germany: 0,714
England: 1,000
Italy: 0,666
Portugal: 0,166
France: 0,166
Russia: 0,200

Matchday 9 - R16/R16
Spain: 1,000
Germany: 0,571
England: 0,250
Italy: 0,166
Portugal: 0,333
France: 0,333
Russia: 0,000

Not counting bonus points.
Best country of the matchday in blue.
GS: All countries with less than 1,000 coefficient points in red.
KO: Worst coefficient in red.

[AlanK]

Top 7 Coefficient Overview

Matchday 9 - R16/R16
Spain: 0,857
Germany: 0,571
England: 0,250
Italy: 0,166
Portugal: 0,333
France: 0,333
Russia: 0,000

Not counting bonus points.
Best country of the matchday in blue.
GS: All countries with less than 1,000 coefficient points in red.
KO: Worst coefficient in red.

[/quote]

I think you'll find we (Spain ) had 7 points (not counting bonus), to wit: Real Madrid 2 + Villarreal 2 + Athletic 2 + Sevilla 1 = 7 divided by 7 total teams = 1.000 coefficient

[JK]

Top 7 Coefficient Overview

Matchday 9 - R16/R16
Spain: 0,857
Germany: 0,571
England: 0,250
Italy: 0,166
Portugal: 0,333
France: 0,333
Russia: 0,000

Not counting bonus points.
Best country of the matchday in blue.
GS: All countries with less than 1,000 coefficient points in red.
KO: Worst coefficient in red.

I think you'll find we (Spain ) had 7 points (not counting bonus), to wit: Real Madrid 2 + Villarreal 2 + Athletic 2 + Sevilla 1 = 7 divided by 7 total teams = 1.000 coefficient

I have overlooked the draw. It is corrected now.
And you proved, that someone is even looking at my little overview.
Wasn't sure, if anyone is at all interested in it.