Overperformers and underperformers in Europe

[JK]

Top 7 Coefficient Overview

Matchday 1
1. Spain: 1,285
2. Germany: 1,428
3. England: 0,625
4. Italy: 1,000
5. Portugal: 1,000
6. France: 1,333
7. Russia: 0,800

Matchday 2
1. Spain: 1,142
2. Germany: 0,714
3. England: 0,750
4. Italy: 1,333
5. Portugal: 1,166
6. France: 0,666
7. Russia: 1,800

Matchday 3
1. Spain: 1,571
2. Germany: 1,285
3. England: 0,875
4. Italy: 1,000
5. Portugal: 1,333
6. France: 0,833
7. Russia: 1,200

Best country of the matchday in blue. All countries with less than 1,000 coefficient points in red.

[Aidann]

Rapid Vienna is the only pot 3 team to record a perfect start. Sion and Molde are pot 4 teams that top their groups too. Serie A leaders Fiorentina are having a disappointing European season so far.

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                Expected Got Delta
Rapid Vienna        3,20  6  +2,80
Sion                2,28  5  +2,72
Molde               2,29  5  +2,71
Zenit               3,45  6  +2,55
Braga               3,56  6  +2,44
Olympiakos          1,84  4  +2,16
Napoli              4,04  6  +1,96
Juventus            3,50  5  +1,50
FC Midtjylland      2,56  4  +1,44
Lok Moscow          3,62  5  +1,38
Partizan Belgrade   2,70  4  +1,30
Belenenses          1,75  3  +1,25
Porto               3,80  5  +1,20
Lazio               3,90  5  +1,10
Malmo FF            1,06  2  +0,94
Lech Poznan         2,12  3  +0,88
Dynamo Kiev         3,16  4  +0,84
BATE Borisov        1,20  2  +0,80
PSG                 4,24  5  +0,76
Sparta Prague       3,26  4  +0,74
Besiktas            3,42  4  +0,58
Wolfsburg           3,45  4  +0,55
Benfica             3,50  4  +0,50
Real Madrid         4,50  5  +0,50
Schalke 04          4,51  5  +0,49
Galatasaray         2,55  3  +0,45
Din Zagreb          1,56  2  +0,44
FK Karabakh         1,64  2  +0,36
PAOK Saloniki       2,64  3  +0,36
Slovan Liberec      2,65  3  +0,35
St Etienne          2,82  3  +0,18
Athletic Bilbao     3,83  4  +0,17
Barcelona           4,83  5  +0,17
Basel               3,85  4  +0,15
CSKA Moscow         2,90  3  +0,10
Monaco              3,91  4  +0,08
Anderlecht          2,92  3  +0,08
FK Krasnodar        2,94  3  +0,06
Valencia            3,95  4  +0,04
Dortmund            5,03  5  -0,03
PSV                 2,09  2  -0,08
Man City            4,16  4  -0,16
Dnipro              3,21  3  -0,21
FC Astana           1,26  1  -0,26
Rubin Kazan         2,28  2  -0,28
Bayer Leverkusen    3,29  3  -0,29
Villarreal          4,34  4  -0,34
APOEL Nicosia       2,38  2  -0,38
FK Qabala           1,39  1  -0,39
AZ Alkmaar          2,43  2  -0,43
Tottenham           3,53  3  -0,53
Man Utd             3,56  3  -0,56
Monchengladbach     1,63  1  -0,63
Roma                2,68  2  -0,68
Atletico Madrid     4,69  4  -0,69
Skenderbeu          0,70  0  -0,70
Bayern Munich       4,71  4  -0,71
Gent                1,71  1  -0,71
Sevilla             2,71  2  -0,71
Celtic              2,74  2  -0,74
Fenerbahce          3,77  3  -0,77
Asteras Tripolis    1,85  1  -0,85
Groningen           1,86  1  -0,86
Chelsea             3,91  3  -0,91
Plzen               2,94  2  -0,94
Augsburg            3,04  2  -1,04
Rosenborg           2,07  1  -1,07
Liverpool           4,12  3  -1,12
Maccabi Tel Aviv    1,13  0  -1,13
Ajax                3,21  2  -1,21
Sporting Lisbon     4,26  3  -1,26
Bordeaux            3,32  2  -1,32
Dinamo Minsk        1,53  0  -1,53
Club Brugge         2,57  1  -1,57
Legia Warsaw        2,83  1  -1,83
Arsenal             3,89  2  -1,89
Lyon                2,89  1  -1,89
Marseille           3,93  2  -1,93
Shakhtar Donetsk    2,20  0  -2,20
Fiorentina          4,28  2  -2,28

Portugal and Russia keep on track for securing a 3rd UCL spot in 2017-18. France looks helpless so far. England is risking their 4rd spot too.

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          Expected Got Delta
Portugal     16,87 21  +4,13
Russia       15,19 19  +3,81
Switzerland   6,13  9  +2,87
Austria       3,20  6  +2,80
Greece        6,33  8  +1,67
Norway        4,36  6  +1,64
Italy        18,40 20  +1,60
Denmark       2,56  4  +1,44
Serbia        2,70  4  +1,30

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Sweden        1,06  2  +0,94
Croatia       1,56  2  +0,44
Turkey        9,74 10  +0,26
Czech Rep     8,85  9  +0,15
Azerbaijan    3,03  3  -0,02
Kazakhstan    1,26  1  -0,26
Cyprus        2,38  2  -0,38
Albania       0,70  0  -0,70
Belarus       2,73  2  -0,73
Scotland      2,74  2  -0,74

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Spain        28,85 28  -0,85
Poland        4,95  4  -0,95
Israel        1,13  0  -1,13
Ukraine       8,57  7  -1,57
Germany      25,66 24  -1,66
Belgium       7,20  5  -2,20
Netherlands   9,59  7  -2,59
France       21,11 17  -4,11
England      23,17 18  -5,17

[Aidann]

Hats off to first Skenderbeu win. Odds were:

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Skenderbeu (15)        Draw (6.5)   Sporting Lisbon (1.29)

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               Expected Got Delta
Skenderbeu         0,29  2  +1,71
Molde              0,56  2  +1,44
Rapid Vienna       0,75  2  +1,25
Gent               0,80  2  +1,20
Zenit              0,89  2  +1,11
Slovan Liberec     0,90  2  +1,10
PSV                0,93  2  +1,07
Lazio              1,00  2  +1,00
Man City           1,08  2  +0,92
Asteras Tripolis   1,15  2  +0,85
Roma               1,17  2  +0,83

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Basel              1,19  2  +0,81
Club Brugge        1,22  2  +0,78
Liverpool          1,24  2  +0,76
St Etienne         1,26  2  +0,74
FC Astana          0,34  1  +0,66
Marseille          1,34  2  +0,66
FK Krasnodar       1,35  2  +0,65
Real Madrid        1,36  2  +0,64
Tottenham          1,37  2  +0,63
Chelsea            1,38  2  +0,62
Fiorentina         1,38  2  +0,62
Augsburg           1,45  2  +0,55

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Villarreal         1,46  2  +0,54
Benfica            1,47  2  +0,53
Man Utd            1,49  2  +0,51
Porto              1,54  2  +0,46
Bayern Munich      1,57  2  +0,43
Olympiakos         1,58  2  +0,42
Shakhtar Donetsk   1,63  2  +0,37
Athletic Bilbao    1,64  2  +0,36
Lok Moscow         0,65  1  +0,35
Napoli             1,71  2  +0,29
Fenerbahce         0,82  1  +0,18
FK Karabakh        0,83  1  +0,17

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Barcelona          1,88  2  +0,12
Schalke 04         0,88  1  +0,12
Monchengladbach    0,89  1  +0,11
Dortmund           1,91  2  +0,09
Bordeaux           0,97  1  +0,03
Sion               1,03  1  -0,03
FK Qabala          0,09  0  -0,09
Juventus           1,11  1  -0,11
Sparta Prague      1,12  1  -0,12
BATE Borisov       0,12  0  -0,12
Monaco             1,17  1  -0,17
Ajax               1,18  1  -0,18

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FC Midtjylland     0,29  0  -0,29
Besiktas           1,35  1  -0,35
Partizan Belgrade  0,36  0  -0,36
Malmo FF           0,37  0  -0,37
Din Zagreb         0,42  0  -0,42
Arsenal            0,43  0  -0,43
Maccabi Tel Aviv   0,46  0  -0,46
CSKA Moscow        0,51  0  -0,51
Galatasaray        0,53  0  -0,53
Dinamo Minsk       0,54  0  -0,54
AZ Alkmaar         0,55  0  -0,55
Lech Poznan        0,62  0  -0,62

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Dynamo Kiev        0,62  0  -0,62
Anderlecht         0,63  0  -0,63
PSG                0,64  0  -0,64
PAOK Saloniki      0,65  0  -0,65
Atletico Madrid    1,66  1  -0,66
Braga              0,66  0  -0,66
Dnipro             0,74  0  -0,74
Rubin Kazan        0,76  0  -0,76
Legia Warsaw       0,78  0  -0,78
Belenenses         0,81  0  -0,81
Bayer Leverkusen   0,83  0  -0,83
APOEL Nicosia      0,85  0  -0,85

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Sevilla            0,92  0  -0,92
Rosenborg          1,00  0  -1,00
Wolfsburg          1,07  0  -1,07
Groningen          1,10  0  -1,10
Lyon               1,11  0  -1,11
Valencia           1,20  0  -1,20
Plzen              1,25  0  -1,25
Celtic             1,44  0  -1,44
Sporting Lisbon    1,71  0  -1,71

[Aidann]

England and Italy in a fierce battle for the 4th Champions League spot. Russia still pushing for a 3rd UCL spot, France was unimpressive, nightmare for Portugal.

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          Expected Got Delta
England       6,99 10  +3,01
Italy         6,37  9  +2,63
Albania       0,29  2  +1,71
Belgium       2,65  4  +1,35
Austria       0,75  2  +1,25
Russia        4,16  5  +0,84
Switzerland   2,22  3  +0,78
Kazakhstan    0,34  1  +0,66
Greece        3,38  4  +0,62

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Norway        1,56  2  +0,44
Azerbaijan    0,92  1  +0,08
Czech Rep     3,27  3  -0,27
Denmark       0,29  0  -0,29
Serbia        0,36  0  -0,36
Sweden        0,37  0  -0,37
Croatia       0,42  0  -0,42
Israel        0,46  0  -0,46
France        6,49  6  -0,49
Germany       8,60  8  -0,60

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Belarus       0,66  0  -0,66
Turkey        2,70  2  -0,70
Netherlands   3,76  3  -0,76
Cyprus        0,85  0  -0,85
Ukraine       2,99  2  -0,99
Spain        10,12  9  -1,12
Poland        1,40  0  -1,40
Scotland      1,44  0  -1,44
Portugal      6,19  4  -2,19

[Thunder_PT]

It's incredible how this was being a perfect week for Portugal before tonight's games and then it became one of the worst I can remember...

[AlanK]

It's incredible how this was being a perfect week for Portugal before tonight's games and then it became one of the worst I can remember...

I commiserate--been there a time or two, and this time I'm with you and Portugal. Really a shame. The good news is Portugal is still ahead of France, and probably has 10 bonus points coming. Bert has started adding in the bonus points as earned--no phoney "we're gonna get those too" allowed. So France is likely to get five bonus points on Matchday 5; Portugal is likely to get 10. Hope the EL teams can do (a lot) better next time.

[JK]

Top 7 Coefficient Overview

Matchday 1
1. Spain: 1,285
2. Germany: 1,428
3. England: 0,625
4. Italy: 1,000
5. Portugal: 1,000
6. France: 1,333
7. Russia: 0,800

Matchday 2
1. Spain: 1,142
2. Germany: 0,714
3. England: 0,750
4. Italy: 1,333
5. Portugal: 1,166
6. France: 0,666
7. Russia: 1,800

Matchday 3
1. Spain: 1,571
2. Germany: 1,285
3. England: 0,875
4. Italy: 1,000
5. Portugal: 1,333
6. France: 0,833
7. Russia: 1,200

Matchday 4
1. Spain: 1,285
2. Germany: 1,142
3. England: 1,250
4. Italy: 1,500
5. Portugal: 0,666
6. France: 1,000
7. Russia: 1,000

Best country of the matchday in blue. All countries with less than 1,000 coefficient points in red. Not counting bonus points.

This is the first time, that England is not in the red. On the other hand this is the first time, that Portugal is there. Overall only one country in the red. New low record. And Spain continues its positive streak. It is also interesting to see, that so far each matchday has a different country winning.

[Aidann]

Molde, a pot 4 team, already qualified for KO stage after just 4 rounds.
On the other side, only Maccabi (0 points) had a worse start than Lyon (1 point) in the UCL GS.

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                Expected Got Delta
Molde               2,85  7  +4,15
Rapid Vienna        3,95  8  +4,05
Zenit               4,34  8  +3,66
Sion                3,31  6  +2,69
Olympiakos          3,42  6  +2,58
Napoli              5,75  8  +2,25
Lazio               4,90  7  +2,10
Braga               4,22  6  +1,78
Lok Moscow          4,27  6  +1,73
Porto               5,34  7  +1,66
Slovan Liberec      3,55  5  +1,45

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Juventus            4,61  6  +1,39
FC Midtjylland      2,85  4  +1,15
Real Madrid         5,86  7  +1,14
Benfica             4,97  6  +1,03
Skenderbeu          0,99  2  +1,01
PSV                 3,02  4  +0,98
Basel               5,04  6  +0,96
Partizan Belgrade   3,06  4  +0,94
St Etienne          4,08  5  +0,92
Man City            5,24  6  +0,76
FK Krasnodar        4,29  5  +0,71
BATE Borisov        1,32  2  +0,68

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Sparta Prague       4,38  5  +0,62
Schalke 04          5,39  6  +0,61
Malmo FF            1,43  2  +0,57
Athletic Bilbao     5,47  6  +0,53
FK Karabakh         2,47  3  +0,53
Gent                2,51  3  +0,49
Belenenses          2,56  3  +0,44
FC Astana           1,60  2  +0,40
Barcelona           6,71  7  +0,29
Lech Poznan         2,74  3  +0,26
Besiktas            4,77  5  +0,23
Dynamo Kiev         3,78  4  +0,22

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Villarreal          5,80  6  +0,20
Roma                3,85  4  +0,15
PSG                 4,88  5  +0,12
Tottenham           4,90  5  +0,09
Dortmund            6,94  7  +0,05
Din Zagreb          1,98  2  +0,02
Asteras Tripolis    3,00  3  +0,00
Man Utd             5,05  5  -0,04
Galatasaray         3,08  3  -0,08
Monaco              5,08  5  -0,08
Bayern Munich       6,28  6  -0,28
Chelsea             5,29  5  -0,29

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PAOK Saloniki       3,29  3  -0,29
Liverpool           5,36  5  -0,36
CSKA Moscow         3,41  3  -0,41
FK Qabala           1,48  1  -0,48
Augsburg            4,49  4  -0,49
Monchengladbach     2,52  2  -0,52
Wolfsburg           4,52  4  -0,52
Anderlecht          3,55  3  -0,55
Fenerbahce          4,59  4  -0,59
Club Brugge         3,79  3  -0,79
Dnipro              3,95  3  -0,95
AZ Alkmaar          2,98  2  -0,98

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Rubin Kazan         3,04  2  -1,04
Bayer Leverkusen    4,12  3  -1,12
Valencia            5,15  4  -1,15
APOEL Nicosia       3,23  2  -1,23
Marseille           5,27  4  -1,27
Bordeaux            4,29  3  -1,29
Atletico Madrid     6,35  5  -1,35
Ajax                4,38  3  -1,38
Maccabi Tel Aviv    1,59  0  -1,59
Sevilla             3,63  2  -1,63
Fiorentina          5,66  4  -1,66
Shakhtar Donetsk    3,83  2  -1,83

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Groningen           2,96  1  -1,96
Dinamo Minsk        2,07  0  -2,07
Rosenborg           3,07  1  -2,07
Celtic              4,18  2  -2,18
Plzen               4,18  2  -2,18
Arsenal             4,32  2  -2,32
Legia Warsaw        3,61  1  -2,61
Sporting Lisbon     5,97  3  -2,97
Lyon                4,00  1  -3,00

[Aidann]

After 4 matchdays, Russia finnally climbed to best overperformer of the group stages, despite collecting only 5 points this week, due to the difficulty of their fixtures. France dropped to greatest underperformer, after English clubs renaissance.

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          Expected Got Delta
Russia       19,35 24  +4,65
Italy        24,77 29  +4,23
Austria       3,95  8  +4,05
Switzerland   8,35 12  +3,65
Greece        9,71 12  +2,29
Norway        5,92  8  +2,08
Portugal     23,06 25  +1,94
Denmark       2,85  4  +1,15
Albania       0,99  2  +1,01

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Serbia        3,06  4  +0,94
Sweden        1,43  2  +0,57
Kazakhstan    1,60  2  +0,40
Azerbaijan    3,95  4  +0,04
Croatia       1,98  2  +0,02
Czech Rep    12,11 12  -0,10
Turkey       12,44 12  -0,44
Belgium       9,85  9  -0,85
Cyprus        3,23  2  -1,23
Belarus       3,39  2  -1,39

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Israel        1,59  0  -1,59
Spain        38,97 37  -1,97
England      30,16 28  -2,16
Scotland      4,18  2  -2,18
Germany      34,26 32  -2,26
Poland        6,35  4  -2,35
Ukraine      11,56  9  -2,56
Netherlands  13,34 10  -3,34
France       27,60 23  -4,60

[og2002gr]

Great work Aidan!
More or less these table depicts the performance of teams.
Though, sometimes I think that it is not about over/under-performing, but about under/over-estimating..

For example, is France really such an underperformer? Or they were overestimated? Their "expected" number (27,60) is 4th overall, above Italy (24,77) and much above Portugal (23,06) and Russia (19,35).

[Lyonnais]

I presume that it also depends on the opponents. Maybe French clubs had easier games (on paper) than the other countries.

Anyway great work Aidann (except when you say that Lyon is the greatest underachiever !!! )

[Aidann]

Great work Aidan!
More or less these table depicts the performance of teams.
Though, sometimes I think that it is not about over/under-performing, but about under/over-estimating..

For example, is France really such an underperformer? Or they were overestimated? Their "expected" number (27,60) is 4th overall, above Italy (24,77) and much above Portugal (23,06) and Russia (19,35).

Well, at the end, the question is "how much do you rely on betting sites estimations?" I have to say that I rely 99% on their criteria. They are gambling their own money, millions and millions of euros, so they better be accurate, or they will go bankrupt after a dozen of silly odds. We are just here posting some comments like myself last season: "I have the feeling that Man City can make a deep run in the Champions League this year". And what happens when you are wrong? Nothing at all.

[og2002gr]

Aidan betting companies are much more accurate than the average player or football fun.
But there are people who are better than betting companies, that's why they win money from their predictions.
I think there are many specialists in this forum, better in predicting results than betting companies.
That's a statistical challenge. Finding the best possible formula.

Concerning France in you tables, problem solved.
France has 6 teams while Italy and Portugal have 5.
That's why more points are expected from French teams, since there are more contributors to total score.

[bugylibicska]

Great idea and of course work Aidann! I was hoping of a good run from Russia this season, but Zenit and Lokomotiv truly surprised me! CSKA and Krasnodar performed more or less as expected, only Rubin are underachieving, though their struggles are well known. Zenit always had the potential, but almost always disappointed, though Lokomotiv I`ve given little chance in a tough group. I`ve thought to myself if Russia reach 12 points I`m very satisfied - it`s a new record - though they might even surpass that. I must stress, in my opinion the key to an exceptional season lies mainly with CSKA, they must continue in the spring, if not CL then in the EL. And of course Zenit, Lokomotiv and Krasnodar should perform in the same spirit as until now, no slacking off. And if Rubin could contribute with a few points the future looks bright.

[Aut]

Austria have over performed? or Rapid Wien have overperformed and everyone else was a disappointment? Well okay Wolfsberger and Altach were never going to do anything serious in Europe but Red Bull should be qualifying for the Group stage at the least but they failed not once but twice to qualify for a Group stage.

So Yes Rapid over performed = Austria over performing as no way can you say Red Bull meet expectations.